Winter 20/21 - General Discussion

Artane2002

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

This morning's snow well and truly gone here.

Some snow showers may come on to the east coast after midnight in to east Wicklow, Wexford and Dublin. If it happens could see another dusting here.

looks like that dreaded word that begins with m to me though, altitude will be key.

Kermit.de.frog

Artane2002 wrote: »

looks like that dreaded word that begins with m to me though, altitude will be key.

Another thing to watch for is graupel, particularly on the frozen surfaces. Temperature profile in the Irish Sea looks acceptable for snow down to the coast and a fairly slack wind.

Reversal

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

This morning's snow well and truly gone here.

Some snow showers may come on to the east coast after midnight in to east Wicklow, Wexford and Dublin. If it happens could see another dusting here.

Any model bringing them onshore? Winds seem to have less of an easterly component than previously modelled.

Kermit.de.frog

Reversal wrote: »

Any model bringing them onshore? Winds seem to have less of an easterly component than previously modelled.

GFS, ICON, Arpege so far to varying degrees. East Wicklow most at risk of being clipped though.

Nqp15hhu

There appears to be a small warm sector AGAIN imbedded in the cold air heading south. The cold air will arrive by midnight and freezing levels will be <400 metres to Saturday morning.

Reversal

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Much of the air masses during this cold spell did come from typically cold sources (anywhere from Iceland to southern Scandinavia) expect those sources have been atypically warm.

Yeah absolutely that was factor and also we didn't really have mass advection of airmasses from very far away to our East or North. Much of the time the 500mb flow was out of the NW really. Yes colder air from relatively local regions was mixed in, but as you said could have been a lot colder.

But the overall 500mb pattern was nothing like that of 2010 or 2018, so bit like comparing apples and oranges even though they both had NE winds here at lower levels.

This spell:


A real cold spell:


This spell was like having a mixer tap set in the middle, 2010 was just on cold.

Nqp15hhu

Some were saying it will be rain at the coast. Icon shows snow right down to the sea.

Gaoth Laidir

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

Some were saying it will be rain at the coast. Icon shows snow right down to the sea.

Well would you believe it? Look at what the ECM has over Limavady!

Nqp15hhu

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Well would you believe it? Look at what the ECM has over Limavady!

Nothing? I believe it because it’s generally quite accurate and shows the warm sector that appears to be flowing in now.

No other model shows the snow level.

Reversal

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Well would you believe it? Look at what the ECM has over Limavady!

As I said though, the higher than average SSTs in the mainly maritime influenced locale really do rule out lying snow away from the mountains for the rest of this winter unfortunately. Although SSTs in that area will be trending below average through spring into summer, which will at least keep the place cool and thunderstorm free.

Nqp15hhu

Reversal wrote: »

As I said though, the higher than average SSTs in the mainly maritime influenced locale really do rule out lying snow away from the mountains for the rest of this winter unfortunately. Although SSTs in that area will be trending below average through spring into summer, which will at least keep the place cool and thunderstorm free.

Lol what are you talking about? No lying snow for the whole winter? Every single year we get at least a few days of lying snow.

The reason why we haven’t got any this winter is due to the constant warm sectors that keep popping up at the last minute in nearly every spell of cold weather. The sea had no effect here last night. We were down to 0.8c at 6am.

Reversal

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

Lol what are you talking about? No lying snow for the whole winter? Every single year we get at least a few days of lying snow.

The reason why we haven’t got any this winter is due to the constant warm sectors that keep popping up at the last minute in nearly every spell of cold weather. The sea had no effect here last night. We were down to 0.8c at 6am.

Why do you think those warm sectors keep popping up?And yes, effectively the Donegal equivalent of El Nino is currently taking place. So anything from the North or NW will be modified above marginal for the next few months in your marine environment. Those pesky warm sectors will just keep forming.

Not all bad though, it won't effect too much if we get an Easterly.

Nqp15hhu

I’m not convinced I won’t see lying snow this winter. We always do.

Reversal

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

I’m not convinced I won’t see lying snow this winter. We always do.

Sure that's not sea salt accretion?

bosco12345

nacho libre wrote: »

That, and northerlies just ain't what they used to be, which makes it harder for things to go in our favour. I have enjoyed this cold spell over all, but last night and today have been a downer from my perspective. I acknowledge it has been the opposite for others across the country.

Easterly/ North E winds are also not as cold as they used to be. The easterly we had for 4/5 days would be a lot colder back in the 80's. Sign of the times, the climate is warming

davidsr20

Met posting weather alert snow and ice tonight. Have I missed something

Billcarson

bosco12345 wrote: »

Easterly/ North E winds are also not as cold as they used to be. The easterly we had for 4/5 days would be a lot colder back in the 80's. Sign of the times, the climate is warming

The climate is warming but those easterlies we had been getting the air mass originally came from the eastern Mediterranean .

Artane2002

davidsr20 wrote: »

Met posting weather alert snow and ice tonight. Have I missed something

it's not for snow, it's for low temperatures and ice.

Gaoth Laidir

Reversal wrote: »

As I said though, the higher than average SSTs in the mainly maritime influenced locale really do rule out lying snow away from the mountains for the rest of this winter unfortunately. Although SSTs in that area will be trending below average through spring into summer, which will at least keep the place cool and thunderstorm free.

I'm not sure where you're getting the warm sst anomaly near Ireland. It's below average.

Reversal

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

I'm not sure where you're getting the warm sst anomaly near Ireland. It's below average.

Well really it's just Lough Foyle in particular. Enhancing the local marine layer.

Seems there's to be showers tomorrow in wicklow and wexford off the Irish sea
The UK met Office virtual radar has them
Met Éireann's app has them as snow here
Somehow I doubt that

TheMilkyPirate

All that lovely snow pouring down the Irish sea. Hopefully it shifts a bit further East before morning

Snowbiee21

The radar is showing streamers in almost a line. Somewhere on the east coast will probably get pasted

lolie

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

All that lovely snow pouring down the Irish sea. Hopefully it shifts a bit further East before morning

East? You must be in Wales.

lolie

lolie wrote: »

East? You must be in Wales.

It must be mad on the preseli hills in sw Wales at the moment being hit by a streamer train stretching all the way up to the antrim Coast
Radar has the whole lot streaming down all the way down to them fed from belfast

TheMilkyPirate

lolie wrote: »

East? You must be in Wales.

West of course, sorry, so used to saying the East.

Pangea

Loch Mourne and Killygordon seem to have a nice covering of snow as of 6 am

https://traffic.tii.ie/map/index.html

Gaoth Laidir

AuntySnow wrote: »

It must be mad on the preseli hills in sw Wales at the moment being hit by a streamer train stretching all the way up to the antrim Coast
Radar has the whole lot streaming down all the way down to them fed from belfast

They're still falling as rain at low levels, though. Valley has reported nothing but rain so far. Altitude will be key if they do make it west.

DOCARCH

Looks like those Irish Sea showers are grazing the Dublin and Wicklow coasts.

awec

Snowing in north Wicklow now. Light on the ground though.