How will schools be able to go back in September? (Continued)

wirelessdude01

Will Yam wrote: »

As i never plucked a figure out of the air how could i be right or wrong?

Maybe you should address your point to the plucker outer.

So what is your revised percentage now, seeing as you pretty much hung your hat on it last night?

Mrsmum

wirelessdude01 wrote: »

I wish they would actually give numbers for schools here, break them down for those in primary and secondary.

Exactly. Also the way they lump 15 to 18 year old school students in with up to age 24 year olds drives me crazy. It's like hiding rather that revealing proper information.
Regarding France, I seem to recall their schools were held up as examples of small classes and I remember little children sitting in marked squares in the school yard signifying how seriously they were taking social distance. I wonder did all that go by the wayside or if they did all that and still have massive increases in schools, that might not be comforting for us here.

wirelessdude01

Will Yam wrote: »

I wonder what that might achieve.

Right now it would lump secondary schools in stranorlar with secondary schools in clonmel, and just give an average. What use would that be?

At least we'd have more information than we currently do. Surely a stats man such as yourself couldn't have reason to quibble with that?

Will Yam

wirelessdude01 wrote: »

So what is your revised percentage now, seeing as you pretty much hung your hat on it last night?

You tell me what the schools numbers are and Over what period & ill do the % For you.

Its quite easy really.

Will Yam

wirelessdude01 wrote: »

At least we'd have more information than we currently do. Surely a stats man such as yourself couldn't have reason to quibble with that?

No, but i would have a concern about averages. What use would the info be?

teachinggal123

wirelessdude01 wrote: »

So what is your revised percentage now, seeing as you pretty much hung your hat on it last night?

You claimed the mythical 200 figure has been supeseded and that Will’s figures are wrong.

How do you know this?

If the 200 figure has been superseded what is the current figure? Or do you even know?


.

wirelessdude01

Will Yam wrote: »

You tell me what the schools numbers are and Over what period & ill do the % For you.

Its quite easy really.

Ohh sweet baby Jesus.

Will Yam

teachinggal123 wrote: »

You claimed the mythical 200 figure has been supeceded and that Will’s figures are wrong.

How do you know this?

If the 200 figure has been superseded what is the current figure? Or do you even know?

Watch out for more plucking lol.

Will Yam

meeeeh wrote: »

Or it might be that their population density is higher, they use more public transport, they opened country more or something else completely different. No conclusion can be made without taking into account other factors.

That’s why an average is of very limited use.

Mrsmum

meeeeh wrote: »

Or it might be that their population density is higher, they use more public transport, they opened country more or something else completely different. No conclusion can be made without taking into account other factors.

Yes that's very true. Still don't understand this lumping in kids of all ages with the age group that tend to live life to the fullest, Covid or no Covid.

meeeeh

Will Yam wrote: »

That’s why an average is of very limited use.

I deleted my post because I was commenting on numbers in France and the reply didn't make much sense without quoting original post.

2ndcoming

Seweryn wrote: »

Yes, I do. I had a look at Swedish data in May (that started me questioning the whole hoax) and then our Irish death rates. Here are the numbers for Ireland. The second table on the right is after deducting the claimed Cov. deaths, just to compare all years "like for like". I would expect the increase on the right side table to be close to 0% if the claimed numbers were correct.




I am not going to try guessing what they are planning to do. But nothing nice it seems. If anyone trust the government, we are in trouble.

Your graph here, even if the figures are 100% accurate of which there is very little evidence, doesn't show what you think it does.

All it shows is that of the 1800 recorded deaths 650 or so would have died this year anyway. Of the very elderly I don't think anyone ever disputed this. However how far are road traffic deaths and accidental deaths down due to lockdown? How far are deaths by misadventure down due to reduced activity?

At the end of the day bare figures tell you nothing without the knowledge to accumulate all the relevant data. This is far from a normal year so comparing it to normal years is pointless.

Most worryingly your conspiracy fails at the first point of logic. Why? We are in a European neoliberal economy that regardless of what some spacer on the internet believes does not care about anything but money. I really can't stress that enough.

It's the cult of individualism that spawns all this nonsense in the mistaken belief that anyone matters. You don't. No one wants to control you, no one cares. They care about enriching themselves and those they represent and maintaining the status quo. They care about keeping you arguing over idiotic sh1t instead of pointing the finger at them.

If you want a conspiracy that at least has the potential of motivation look at China. They were more prepared, have a genuinely controlled society and have economic reasons to pursue something like this, while Western societies failure to deal with it and eventual collapse into the idiotic culture wars we're seeing now was entirely predictable.

(NB I'm not saying I believe any of the above, just as a conspiracy it at least has the possibility of truth, compared to the scamdemic / population control/ anti-vaxxer nonsense spouted above.)

beggars_bush

The schools rely on pupils' families following guidelines 7 days a week.

I just hope that parents realise this.
Without parents following the guidelines schools will start seeing more cases

combat14

does anyone know If plc colleges are open for students tomorrow thanks

Seweryn

2ndcoming wrote: »

Your graph here, even if the figures are 100% accurate of which there is very little evidence, doesn't show what you think it does.

If you really want the confirmation of accuracy, just email the register office yourself for the figures. But how you are going to be sure they give you the accurate data? You can question the numbers forever and get nowhere.

2ndcoming wrote: »

However how far are road traffic deaths and accidental deaths down due to lockdown? How far are deaths by misadventure down due to reduced activity?

ALL road deaths are about 0.5 % of the national deaths. So, if we completely reduce our presence on the roads to zero activity we reduce the deaths by 0.5 %.

2ndcoming wrote: »

At the end of the day bare figures tell you nothing without the knowledge to accumulate all the relevant data. This is far from a normal year so comparing it to normal years is pointless.

So, the simple maths when adding a few factual numbers together work in any given year, except 2020?
I can't understand why you would want to complicate it further? All i wanted to show is the actual increase in deaths this year comparing to the average of the previous 5 years using the most reliable source of information available.

Balagan1

Mrsmum wrote: »

It would be more informative if they split the figure for schools and universities. The mixing that school kids do and that of college adults can be very different.

Might be a breakdown of the primary school figures in The Telegraph but it's behind a paywall after a month's trial. Below is the best I could find which is from 21 September, gives figures, but the focus is on how the French Gov changed the goalposts as the figures rose:

France’s government has decided to ease rules on pre-school and primary school closures as of Tuesday, after health advisors said children were at low risk of serious illness or of transmitting the virus that causes Covid-19.

France’s Education Ministry announced Sunday that classes in pre-school and primary schools (for pupils aged 3-10), would “continue to be held as usual” even if a classmate tests positive for Covid-19.

As of Tuesday, the new rules are to replace current restrictions whereby pupils considered to have been in close contact with an infected person could only return to school if they test negative after staying home for seven days.

The decision comes after the High Council for Public Health advisory board to the health ministry published a notice Thursday stating “children pose little risk of contracting serious cases and of spreading SARS-CoV-2”.

Three weeks into the school year, 89 public and private schools are currently closed under the existing protocol, a small fraction of the total 61,500, although many more classes within other schools have also been suspended.

“Currently, close to 2,000 classes are closed,” Education Minister Jean-Michel Blanquer said Monday. “The new protocol will allow for fewer closures.”


However, the ministry said the current protocol, which include isolating suspected cases, identifying contacts between pupils and possible closures of classes or entire schools would continue to be applied if three pupils in the same class tested positive.

But teachers, who are required to wear masks, will no longer be considered to be “contact cases” if they have been in contact with unmasked pupils testing positive for Covid-19.

Economic justification
With confirmed cases on the rise and Covid-related hospital admissions increasing, unions questioned the motivation for the government decision.

“You can say children pose little risk of spreading the disease, but not that they pose no risk. Otherwise why would the prime minister call on grandparents to refrain from picking up their grandchildren at school?” asks Guislaine David, general secretary of teachers’ union SnuiPP-FSU, in newspaper Le Parisien.

“To relax the rules in this way, while they are toughened everywhere else, is incomprehensible. The only justification is economic...”

https://www.rfi.fr/en/france/20200921-france-eases-covid-19-restrictions-in-primary-schools-despite-rising-cases-children-low-transmission-risk

wirelessdude01

Will Yam wrote: »

Watch out for more plucking lol.

Tell that other poster who is on my ignore list that the figures that supercede the magical 200 are on the link I provided earlier.

teachinggal123

wirelessdude01 wrote: »

Tell that other poster who is on my ignore list that the figures that supercede the magical 200 are on the link I provided earlier.

With respect wirelessdude, it this is the 'link' you are referring to ...

wirelessdude01 wrote: »

Just went and had a look at that Facebook group.

As of yesterday they had copies of aladdin messages, screenshots of text messages from schools or the relevant HSE letter from 199 schools and 8 preschools that confirmed a case or cases in those schools.

One of the schools I personally know has 7 confirmed cases but the page has only been sent 3 of the above so they only list 3 rather than 7 cases for that particular school. Also in the instance of the Celbridge school that has a high number that high number isn't represented.

Number of cases then are well above 200.

Before you ask this is since schools went back.

3 schools have been told to close by the HSE.

... I'm not going to trust it.

You are making claims on this thread and saying Will is incorrect, but basing all your argument on figures from a Facebook page and your own assumptions? Really? While other teachers are makimg claims (again, with no evidence) that the figures are 200?

Nah, I'm not buying it. None of it. If you can reference any official figures then your claims would have more credibility. Until then, nope!

Smacruairi

I'd rather trust a Facebook group with multiple hse letters and texts from schools than 2 posters who have received several warnings from mods for their posting styles

lulublue22

Smacruairi wrote: »

I'd rather trust a Facebook group with multiple hse letters and texts from schools than 2 posters who have received several warnings from mods for their posting styles

TBH the thread has jumped the shark at this stage - degenerated into petty sniping and constant nit picking and petty arguing.

Blondini

lulublue22 wrote: »

TBH the thread has jumped the shark at this stage - degenerated into petty sniping and constant nit picking and petty arguing.

I think we can all agree who is causing that.

deiseindublin

I pop back in here every so often but it's f'in pointless, the same pair are repeating themselves each and every day. They definitely aren't interested in discussing keeping schools open, it's so pointless.

I don't understand how they are allowed to post like this day in day out and not be sanctioned tbh.

teachinggal123

Facebook is not a good (or acceptible) source for referencing research. I would never allow my students to make a significant point and back it up with the claim that they saw it on facebook so it must be gospel. I'm really surprised that some of the teachers on this thread seem to think this is ok??!!!??

I really hope most other teachers do not accept FB as a relaible source. Particurarly when the subject matter is so serious.

Balagan1

deiseindublin wrote: »

I pop back in here every so often but it's f'in pointless, the same pair are repeating themselves each and every day. They definitely aren't interested in discussing keeping schools open, it's so pointless.

I don't understand how they are allowed to post like this day in day out and not be sanctioned tbh.

I agree. I have never had so many posters on my ignore list but as I don't want to rejoin Facebook I have no access to school lists and numbers and so am hanging in here in order to pick up some info from those who have facebook access through I understand that info from it cannot be copied and pasted.

It is pitiful in this day and age we cannot be provided with info on events affecting our children's lives and our own. Keeping people in the dark is not a solution to anything.

teachinggal123

Balagan1 wrote: »

I agree. I have never had so many posters on my ignore list but as I don't want to rejoin Facebook I have no access to school lists and numbers and so am hanging in here in order to pick up some info from those who have facebook access through I understand that info from it cannot be copied and pasted.

It is pitiful in this day and age we cannot be provided with info on events affecting our children's lives and our own. Keeping people in the dark is not a solution to anything.

Please don’t trust that FB page. Just looking at it now and there are definitely inaccuracies. Also lots of people with agendas I’d imagine.

I agree that we should have the official figures and pitiful that we don’t (and probably won’t for the foreseeable future).

Will Yam

teachinggal123 wrote: »

Facebook is not a good (or acceptible) source for referencing research. I would never allow my students to make a significant point and back it up with the claim that they saw it on facebook so it must be gospel. I'm really surprised that some of the teachers on this thread seem to think this is ok??!!!??

I really hope most other teachers do not accept FB as a relaible source. Particurarly when the subject matter is so serious.

Social media in any form cannot be relied on for reliable information.

It’s great if you have an agenda to pursue and use sm to advance that agenda with made up “facts”.

This thread is about schools being open and thus far, all is going reasonably well. Much to the chagrin of some.

wirelessdude01

Will Yam wrote: »

Social media in any form cannot be relied on for reliable information.

It’s great if you have an agenda to pursue and use sm to advance that agenda with made up “facts”.

This thread is about schools being open and thus far, all is going reasonably well. Much to the chagrin of some.

So are you now trying to say that 400+ cases in the 5-14yr age range since August the 29th are "made up facts"?

irishblessing

teachinggal123 wrote: »

Please don’t trust that FB page. Just looking at it now and there are definitely inaccuracies. Also lots of people with agendas I’d imagine.

I agree that we should have the official figures and pitiful that we don’t (and probably won’t for the foreseeable future).

Oh? So you're a source of complete reliability of all school cases now, and an army of Irish parents aren't? You have most definitely displayed at least a couple of agenda's here yourself.

In the absence of official figures from the HSE or NPHET or gov't this is the closest we have. My local TD's FB page is an excellent source of info. I'll say it again- no school principal, teacher or parent has come forward to say the published HSE letters or texts are a fake. As a matter of fact the published posts usually have a healthy commentary from other real parents profiles talking about how it's their child's school/class, etc. Unlike here, an anonymous forum where anything can be claimed.

Will Yam wrote: »

Social media in any form cannot be relied on for reliable information.

It’s great if you have an agenda to pursue and use sm to advance that agenda with made up “facts”.

NASA has a FB page. All of our political parties, TD's and reps and many other of our gov't bodies do. Lot's of legitimate government agencies around the world do. Including WHO. Unicef. CDC. The White House. Trump's Twitter has been deemed his official presidential statements by the way... so you can't "social media = fake news" here.

wirelessdude01

Another huge jump in cases again today, 430.

jrosen

wirelessdude01 wrote: »

Another huge jump in cases again today, 430.

Just saw that.. When are people going to cop on.