Large Explosion in Beirut

biko

tricky D wrote: »

The big white building was a grain silo with a capacity of 120,000 tons of grain. That is a known explosion risk.

That's 85% of all the grain in Lebanon.
There will be even worse bread shortages now, and they have had food shortages for months already.

Quantum Erasure

Looks like it absorbed a lot of the blast, might have prevented a good bit of destruction along the waterfront that side of the port

biko

Quantum Erasure wrote: »

Looks like it absorbed a lot of the blast, might have prevented a good bit of destruction along the waterfront that side of the port

Yes, a blessing in disguise I suppose.

This catastrophe makes one wonder what's kept in the storage facilities in our own docklands.

expectationlost

does anybody know why it is that the warning letters were sent to the judicary? was it because it was a commercial dispute, over ownership of the boat/cargo?

said letters were sent to Urgent Matters Judge https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-53683082 is that like trying to get an injunction or the commercial court, you would think that judges are slightly less corrupt then politicians and would be able to just order people to do things.

Gods Gift

biko wrote: »

Yes, a blessing in disguise I suppose.

This catastrophe makes one wonder what's kept in the storage facilities in our own docklands.

E voting machines.

Signore Fancy Pants

Gods Gift wrote: »

E voting machines.

Wrong.

Boulevardier

Who is the current Lebanese government aligned with? Is it supported mostly by Iran and Russia, or by Saudi, or Turkey, or the EU?

It would be interesting to know which foreign power(s) have the most to gain from the replacement of the present government in Beirut.

da_miser

Boulevardier wrote: »

Who is the current Lebanese government aligned with? Is it supported mostly by Iran and Russia, or by Saudi, or Turkey, or the EU?

It would be interesting to know which foreign power(s) have the most to gain from the replacement of the present government in Beirut.

Dont matter who they are, id expect the EU to invite them to come here as refugees.
Simon Coveney probably writing his speech now inviting the lot to come to Ireland

cj maxx

Boulevardier wrote: »

Who is the current Lebanese government aligned with? Is it supported mostly by Iran and Russia, or by Saudi, or Turkey, or the EU?

It would be interesting to know which foreign power(s) have the most to gain from the replacement of the present government in Beirut.

Macron got in there early

Jeff2

I've not read all the thread but to have fireworks next to fertilizer and a grain storage.

You couldn't make any better for a big bang.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bRstLU9v3gg

Signore Fancy Pants

da_miser wrote: »

Dont matter who they are, id expect the EU to invite them to come here as refugees.
Simon Coveney probably writing his speech now inviting the lot to come to Ireland

Absolute nonsense and complete tripe.

There are **** all Lebanese refugees/asylum seekers in Ireland. However, there are many Lebanese legally residing and working in Ireland.

Theres a high level of illeducated verbal diarrhea in your post.

da_miser

Signore Fancy Pants wrote: »

Absolute nonsense and complete tripe.

There are **** all Lebanese refugees/asylum seekers in Ireland. However, there are many Lebanese legally residing and working in Ireland.

Theres a high level of illeducated verbal diarrhea in your post.

Bookmark your post and come back in a few months, we know what i posted will happen

Signore Fancy Pants

Boulevardier wrote: »

Who is the current Lebanese government aligned with? Is it supported mostly by Iran and Russia, or by Saudi, or Turkey, or the EU?

It would be interesting to know which foreign power(s) have the most to gain from the replacement of the present government in Beirut.

Well that's a far reaching complex question.

In general, the Lebanese government has been more about proportional representation along religous affiliations. While in the past, long term or seasoned politicians have been corrupted by external and regional actors, the current batch have been voted in to move in a new direction....really to rid the stigma of old politixs and stabilise the country.

Currently many of the Cabinet are "new faces" with little legacy issues regarding the "old guard" and who they were overtly controlled by.

The new Cabinet are very much educated and in some cases technical experts in differing fields, rather a new breed of technocratoc governance. However, many are affiliated with international banking and educational institutions which 'could' sway diplomatic allegiences.

The people who make up the Cabinet themselves can be seen by the international community as relatively neutral (caveated by their religious affiliations and political parties).

Despite this, they are pretty much proxies for the "old guard" politicians, therefore mainly sat on the front bench at the behest of others to allude to a more civilised or new wave of government.

The common issues are the religious breakdown of the Cabinet and the historical rivalry between the March 8th and March 14th alliances. Although these alliances are described as currently politically "defunct", in reality they are surviving well in the shadows of the current Cabinet.

In regards to what regional or external actors would benefit from a Cabinet shake up? Well none to be precise. Lebanon has always been the political weak link in the Middle East. It's where Sunni and Shia parties battle for key appointments for regional optics. However, in the states cuurent shape, no external actor would benefit from a change in Lebanese leadership right now.

Currently Hezbollah and their allies hold the greatest number of seats at Cabinet, maintaining control of some key Cabinet appointments. The international perception (particularly in the west) is not a good thing as Hezbollah as a whole has been proscribed as a terrorist organisation. Although its political wing is contentiously considered legitimate in some countries.

This is a huge hurdle on the international stage for Prime Minister Diab. He was voted in by the March 8 Alliance a.k.a Pro-Hezbollah bloc (Shia parties) who are actually Pro-Syrian affiliated parties. While is an "Independant" candidate with no overt affiliations, he is a Sunni and is very much in position by being propped up by a Shia majority.

The current Cabint are basically in place as fall guys to fail in a short period of time. Its an "experimental" model to give the perception that attempts of reform is being made. Also, this has given Hezbollah a bit of breathing room to heighten their "political brand" while covertly operating a majority of "unaffiliated" Cabinet appointments for a short term....for their covert domestic and regional interests.

In short...There will be a new Cabinet in the medium term, not because of external actors but because of the 'Ghosts of Politics Past'.

That might be clear as mud to some but thats Lebanese politics.

Signore Fancy Pants

da_miser wrote: »

Bookmark your post and come back in a few months, we know what i posted will happen

Im quite sure you don't actually understand what you are saying. Where is your assesment coming from exactly..."gut instinct"?

The majority of refugees coming to Ireland from Lebanon are actually Syrian refugees.

You are just on an anti-government and anti-immigration rant....an illeducated and wrong one at that. The worst kind.

da_miser

Signore Fancy Pants wrote: »

Im quite sure you don't actually understand what you are saying. Where is your assesment coming from exactly..."gut instinct"?

The majority of refugees coming to Ireland from Lebanon are actually Syrian refugees.

You are just on an anti-government and anti-immigration rant....an illeducated and wrong one at that. The worst kind.

Time will tell and im betting im correct

Signore Fancy Pants

da_miser wrote: »

Time will tell and im betting im correct

Bet all you like.

You are not offering any basis for your assessment. It's just anti-immigration rabble.

Actual Lebanese people have familial connections throughout Europe, US and Australia. If leaving Lebanon they gravitate towards family because thats where their support network is.

You may be thinking of Syrian or Palestinian refugees who are residing in Lebanon may seek refuge in the EU.

This is why its obvious that you havent a notion of what you are talking about and also why you come out with bullsh1t one liners and cant support your assessment..."time will tell"...the rationalised defence of the illinformed and highly opinionated.

Boulevardier

Signore, that is a very thorough analysis.

Perhaps I am a bit paranoid, but I suspect, from your description, that Israel and the US stand to gain most from a change of Lebanese government.

I am therefore wondering if Israeli or other agents were involved in setting off the explosion. Hopefully that is not true, but it is just a thought.

nacho libre

Boulevardier wrote: »

I am therefore wondering if Israeli or other agents were involved in setting off the explosion. Hopefully that is not true, but it is just a thought.

I don't think so, because as much Hezbollah don't want a war, neither do Israel. What's more likely is Israel and America have been building pressure on Hezbollah in other ways. There will be some in Israel who may see what happened as beneficial to them, if it transpires Hezbollah are responsible for what happened at the port. The President has backed himself into a corner by saying powerful players will be held to account.
It may be the people really responsible are not charged over what happened

Signore Fancy Pants

Boulevardier wrote: »

Signore, that is a very thorough analysis.

Perhaps I am a bit paranoid, but I suspect, from your description, that Israel and the US stand to gain most from a change of Lebanese government.

I am therefore wondering if Israeli or other agents were involved in setting off the explosion. Hopefully that is not true, but it is just a thought.

I wouldnt say you are paranoid at all.

The US has a track record of Regime change but not really applicable in this case. Israel and Lebanon on the other hand have a mutual turmultuous relationship since the Arab-Israeli war but less so than other Arab nations.

In fact in the early days, the US actually facilitated bilateral relations between Israel and Lebanon. Although things have shifted significantly since then.

Israel has conducted sabbotage operations on foreign soil in the past, this act could indeed fit into that category. Israel have also operated surveillance and suicide drones in Beirut in 2019 so have the stand off capability to have used small calibre precision loitering munitions to have conducted a strike in the Port. Indeed this is consistent with previous Israeli rhetoric against "operation human shield" which alledges that Hezbollah conceal strategic missile capabilities within urban areas of Beirut and southern Lebanon.

Did Hezbollah know that 2000+ tonnes of potential explosives were stored in the Port? Yes.

Have Hezbollah used that explosive componant before? Yes.

Is it currently part of Hezbollah's strategic arsenal? No.

Were they stored for operations against Israel? No.

Were Israel aware of its existence? Yes.

Could the Isreali detonation of the chemicals lead to direct conflict due to the current heightened tensions? Yes.

If Israel were willing to strike one alleged Hezbollah storage site, would they not simultaneoisly strike them all? Yes they would, similar to aerial operations in Syria where they conduct multiple strikes on targets of interest.

In my own opinion, Israel have the capability to conduct an operation on the Port but it is highly unlikely in this case.

You are not wrong or paranoid at all though, its a legitimate thought process.

dere34

Violent clashes now at Beirut protests.

Boulevardier

Signore you are right, but it is not just about striking at Hezbollah by itself. If regime change in Lebanon dislodges Hezbollah, it also dislodges Iranian influence in the region. Very convenient for some.

TheBlackPill

It seems bizarre that such a large amount of fertiliser would not be used in the last 6 years for agricultural purposes. Very cheap source..confiscated.
I wonder has there been consistent use of the stockpile but multiple smaller shipments over the last few years have kept the stockpile at the same amount

MadYaker

Sounds like its kicking off over there now, they've had enough.

The sectarian nature of government there whereby different sects each have to be represented in certain offices basically leads to several separate sets of rivals for each office which just lends itself perfectly to massive levels of corruption and inefficiency.

If anyone has the interest or inclination they should read Pity the Nation by Robert Fisk. Incredibly depressing altogether.

TheBlackPill

Deleted User wrote: »

If anyone has the interest or inclination they should read Pity the Nation by Robert Fisk. Incredibly depressing altogether.

I remember reading a first edition of this book. Excellent read. came across as very objective. Fisks later writing and later editions i do not think retain the same objectivity.

Das Reich

Signore Fancy Pants wrote: »

Bet all you like.

You are not offering any basis for your assessment. It's just anti-immigration rabble.

Actual Lebanese people have familial connections throughout Europe, US and Australia. If leaving Lebanon they gravitate towards family because thats where their support network is.

You may be thinking of Syrian or Palestinian refugees who are residing in Lebanon may seek refuge in the EU.

This is why its obvious that you havent a notion of what you are talking about and also why you come out with bullsh1t one liners and cant support your assessment..."time will tell"...the rationalised defence of the illinformed and highly opinionated.

Actually it was Brazil that took most Lebanese refugees when most of population of Lebanon were Christians. I can't see the point of taking non Christians or non Atheists refugees in western countries.

Signore Fancy Pants

Boulevardier wrote: »

Signore you are right, but it is not just about striking at Hezbollah by itself. If regime change in Lebanon dislodges Hezbollah, it also dislodges Iranian influence in the region. Very convenient for some.

Agreed to an extent.

Obviously the US initiative of the "Maximum Pressure Campaign" against Iran and their proxies is part of a regional destabilisation with a global reach.

Israels issues with the strategic Iranian Tehran-Beirut landbridge and the creation of thw 'Shia Crescent' is a national security concern for them.

However, Hezbollah as an entity in Lebanon has free will and is not under control or influence of Iran. A failure of Hezbollah internal politics will not have much of an effect against Irans regional strategic intents.

Hezbollah operatives will continue to work under the direction of Iran in the Americas, Yemen and Syria. Dislodging Hezbollah political affiliates inside Lebanon has zero bearing on it at all.

Signore Fancy Pants

Das Reich wrote: »

Actually it was Brazil that took most Lebanese refugees when most of population of Lebanon were Christians. I can't see the point of taking non Christians or non Atheists refugees in western countries.

Yeah it wasnt an exhaustive list. I was just emphasising how unlikely it is for that poster to assess that Ireland will have a large influx of Lebanese refugees.

AllForIt

God almighty, will I ever live a moment in my life where the middle east isn't in some kind of turmoil. Can they not just get their act together. They seem to revel in strife, it seems to be in their nature.