What is our plan?

HeidiHeidi

i_surge wrote: »

See above.

There are always options.

Closing our borders, and completely eradicating the virus (to take two of your more recent hare-brained examples) are not actually options.

i_surge

HeidiHeidi wrote: »

Closing our borders, and completely eradicating the virus (to take two of your more recent hare-brained examples) are not actually options.

They are only hare brained when you are painfully closed minded.

Aim for total eradication and if you get most of the way that would be a big improvement.

The current plan is a tried and tested recipe for a second wave.

Mediocre

fly_agaric

i_surge wrote: »

Mediocre closed minded European attitude.

We should look to our betters in Asia who don't make excuses.

No, it is realism re the situation.
I'm increasingly of opinion elimination may be the way to go, but I don't think the political situation here makes it easy. It may not be possible.
We could control inward travel much more, but even if we do that (I believe we should) we may not ever get to "elimination" (and full benefits of that status) because of the (weak) link with the UK via NI. If they (NI, or more realistically UK as a whole, where trying to eliminate the virus completely would be a big & painful task) don't adopt the same policy as us, it is going to be futile.
Our "betters", not so sure about that. Asia isn't a monolith either.

hmmm

gabeeg wrote: »

To my mind there's been two significant developments in our understanding of the virus that have left us somewhat adrift in terms of what our plan should be..

If it was widely airborne, we'd have lots of spread. Clearly it is in certain situations, but it doesn't appear to be the main source of spread.

Agreed re the long Covid.

The fact that the lockdowns worked has made people complacent. If this had been like 1918 and every family had seen family members seriously sick, we'd be acting differently. As it is we think it is some minor thing which will go away in the near future, when in reality it's a dangerous virus which won't be reliably under control until we get a vaccine.

Bit cynical

i_surge wrote: »

It is realistic.

It is so simple at the core.....in the presence of the virus there are only two factors, social mixing and hygiene when people meet.

If standards were ramped up and the public got behind getting their lives back with good notice to prepare, sort out the financial mechanics of keeping everyone but the most essential services safe at home, ramp up non contact food delivery, strict punishments for non compliance teamed with social shaming tactics it could be done in 6 to 8 weeks. With some design there could still be socialising of sorts. Governments were throwing the book at it initially but they got tired and a half in half out worked to an extent but now we are stuck and it is time to ramp up.

You only see deprivation when delayed gratification it is the key to your freedom.

No, that is not my objection to your idea. The problem is that the plan would not work in a permanent fashion. Absolutely no problem personally making the appropriate sacrifices if it would work.

i_surge

hmmm wrote: »

If it was widely airborne, we'd have lots of spread. Clearly it is in certain situations, but it doesn't appear to be the main source of spread.

Agreed re the long Covid.

The fact that the lockdowns worked has made people complacent. If this had been like 1918 and every family had seen family members seriously sick, we'd be acting differently. As it is we think it is some minor thing which will go away in the near future, when in reality it's a dangerous virus which won't be reliably under control until we get a vaccine.

Known psychological effects from warzones, I survived this far, be grand.

The challenge now is much harder because we are lockdowned out. Will need some serious social engineering to get people behind doing the right thing but it is possible.

i_surge

Bit cynical wrote: »

No, that is not my objection to your idea. The problem is that the plan would not work in a permanent fashion. Absolutely no problem personally making the appropriate sacrifices if it would work.

Still better than the alternative.

I would love to be in New Zealand or Vietnam right now.

fly_agaric

fly_agaric wrote: »

No, it is realism re the situation.
I'm increasingly of opinion elimination may be the way to go, but I don't think the political situation here makes it easy. It may not be possible.
We could control inward travel much more, but even if we do that (I believe we should) we may not ever get to "elimination" (and full benefits of that status) because of the (weak) link with the UK via NI. If they don't adopt the same policy as us, it is going to be futile.
Our "betters", not so sure about that. Asia isn't a monolith either.

It’s not just a weak link with the UK via NI. Under the CTA every UK passport holder has automatic entry into and a permanent residency right in Ireland. No permit needed. Even in schengen you need a permit to actually reside in a different schengen country. You can’t actually stop a British passport holder at a port or airport unless Ireland pulls out of the CTA as they are automatically, in effect, Itish residents. And vice versa of course

HeidiHeidi

Deleted User wrote: »

It’s not just a weak link with the UK via NI. Under the CTA every UK passport holder has automatic entry into and a permanent residency right in Ireland. No permit needed. Even in schengen you need a permit to actually reside in a different schengen country. You can’t actually stop a British passport holder at a port or airport unless Ireland pulls out of the CTA as they are automatically, in effect, Itish residents. And vice versa of course

You can't be letting pesky little details like that get in the way of The Grand Plan :rolleyes:

So what happens when we've eradicated it in 6 weeks flat, but it's still on the march worldwide? Stay locked up/down/in? Open up, and we start all over again?

i_surge

Deleted User wrote: »

It’s not just a weak link with the UK via NI. Under the CTA every UK passport holder has automatic entry into and a permanent residency right in Ireland. No permit needed. Even in schengen you need a permit to actually reside in a different schengen country. You can’t actually stop a British passport holder at a port or airport unless Ireland pulls out of the CTA as they are automatically, in effect, Itish residents. And vice versa of course

Small minds

All sorts of countries have done all sorts of things with their immigration setup during covid. It is standard, expected and reasonable.

Travel can be allowed with testing, temp scans and forced quarantine all logically consistent with the whole world being on pause for 5 months and needing to fix that.

4068ac1elhodqr

i_surge wrote: »

Still better than the alternative.
I would love to be in New Zealand or Vietnam right now.

NZ is fairly unique location on the globe, and hence the choice destinaiton for the billionares to splurge out on their dd bunkers (on the S.Island).

Very remote, 28.5hr flight typically, from the W.Eurozone. the Kiwis are a grand bunch, very similar to the Irish, Aussies are a tad more 'dry'.

i_surge

HeidiHeidi wrote: »

You can't be letting pesky little details like that get in the way of The Grand Plan :rolleyes:

So what happens when we've eradicated it in 6 weeks flat, but it's still on the march worldwide? Stay locked up/down/in? Open up, and we start all over again?

Live in relative bliss in your own country with friends and family, food, drink and merriment.

Continue to control the borders. Follow our Asian betters to the letter on this.

darjeeling

Three was to avoid a second wave:

1) Vaccine - out of our hands, but is likely to be the best long term solution

2) Social distancing - works, but destroys jobs & businesses, stops children & students getting an education.
Trying to relax social distancing while only testing reactively once outbreaks are established means there is a ceiling to how much economic and social activity we can allow. This is what we and many other countries in Europe are finding out.

3) Mass testing. We've already ramped up over 10x since March, but need to go 10x higher again.
Test asymptomatic people regularly - e.g. all school children, college students once or twice a week, test in workplaces, hospitals etc.
This model has been increasingly discussed in the US in recent weeks and I've not heard anyone argue against it. In fact it's now becoming the orthodox position among experts & health professionals talking to the media.
This could be done but we need to identify all bottlenecks in the testing process and figure how to get round them.
Ideally we would have a point-of-use dipstick-type test that doesn't need a trained person to take a sample, but this technology hasn't been approved yet & isn't likely to be mass produced & available here for months, so we would need to consider all alternatives meanwhile.

HeidiHeidi

i_surge wrote: »

Live in relative bliss in your own country with friends and family, food, drink and merriment.

Now I know you're just on a wind-up.

I'm out.

i_surge

i_surge wrote: »

Small minds

All sorts of countries have done all sorts of things with their immigration setup during covid. It is standard, expected and reasonable.

Travel can be allowed with testing, temp scans and forced quarantine all logically consistent with the whole world being on pause for 5 months and needing to fix that.

Lots of us have family spread across these islands. Anything like you suggest, for the length of time you suggest, would have to be on a British isles basis

HeidiHeidi

HeidiHeidi wrote: »

Now I know you're just on a wind-up.

I'm out.

Yes, that’s given it away. It’s a wind-up thread

Feria40

i_surge wrote: »

Small minds

All sorts of countries have done all sorts of things with their immigration setup during covid. It is standard, expected and reasonable.

Travel can be allowed with testing, temp scans and forced quarantine all logically consistent with the whole world being on pause for 5 months and needing to fix that.

You are right, countries have done all sorts but are the ones that have taken tough measures re borders etc. really comparable to us?

And how long more can those same countries continue with those ultra strict border controls? Years?

I hate to throw out the clichéd "we are a small open economy" but we really really are.

Anyone that looks back on my post history will see that I am very very pro travel but if I thought that banning all flights and sealing our borders (somehow) until the end of 2020 would save us all from this blasted disease then I would be all for it.

The trouble is that I don't believe it would.

i_surge

I'm deadly serious. I honestly don't get why people love making a bollox of everything continuously. Do your best and if you fail so be it but to not try is criminal.

fly_agaric

Deleted User wrote: »

It’s not just a weak link with the UK via NI. Under the CTA every UK passport holder has automatic entry into and a permanent residency right in Ireland. No permit needed. Even in schengen you need a permit to actually reside in a different schengen country. You can’t actually stop a British passport holder at a port or airport unless Ireland pulls out of the CTA as they are automatically, in effect, Itish residents. And vice versa of course

We are sovereign and have power to suspend that (CTA).
It is impossible to do anything unilaterally about NI related issues that would introduce new cases, either the land border with us, its internal politics as part of the UK or what policies they adopt.
I was just engaging in (idle...) thought experiments about an "elimination" policy and what it would entail here. I added to my post above that we really would need UK entire on same page.

i_surge

Feria40 wrote: »

You are right, countries have done all sorts but are the ones that have taken tough measures re borders etc. really comparable to us?

And how long more can those same countries continue with those ultra strict border controls? Years?

I hate to throw out the clichéd "we are a small open economy" but we really really are.

Anyone that looks back on my post history will see that I am very very pro travel but if I thought that banning all flights and sealing our borders (somehow) until the end of 2020 would save us all from this blasted disease then I would be all for it.

The trouble is that I don't believe it would.

No one has a crystal ball but to knowingly accept a policy that you know with certainty increases the problem is a curious logic.

4068ac1elhodqr

Singapore has a 'certain approach' to dealing with visitors and returnees.

Starting 11 Aug, they will fit (tamper proof) tracking devices on folks, (assume on legs like the grey tracksuit folks). So if you leave the house, when you shouldn't (1st couple of weeks of arrival), then you big trouble from da man.

S.Kor and HK have a more slimeline wristband (perhaps using bt beacons, rather than full on GPS) for new arrivals. The alert will flash/message the wristband directly (instead of phone) if their bigbro say's you're a naughty boy/girl, or one of the infected.

Bit cynical

i_surge wrote: »

Still better than the alternative.

I would love to be in New Zealand or Vietnam right now.

No, unfortunately, no better than the alternative. It only stops the clock for the duration of the lockdown. Lift the lockdown and infections start increasing again.

It is essentially the same problem we are facing at the moment, with cases increasing from a very small number.

If we were a hermetically sealed country, it might work. But we are not.

nw1dqsv7amx026

hmmm wrote: »

If this had been like 1918 and every family had seen family members seriously sick, we'd be acting differently.

Would you consider that maybe this isn't like 1918 because the virus is nowhere near as lethal, people are healthier and medicine is better?

i_surge

HeidiHeidi wrote: »

Now I know you're just on a wind-up.

I'm out.

100% serious. If I was in NZ or Vietnam I'd be having serious craic, safely.

i_surge

Bit cynical wrote: »

Unfortunately, no better than the alternative. It only stops the clock for the duration of the lockdown. Lift the lockdown and infections start increasing again.


It is essentially the same problem we are facing at the moment, with cases increasing from a very small number.

Where do they come from?

Same problem sure, the scale of it could be significantly lessened as it is with our Asian betters right now.

Otherwise we are on a slow bleed train to nowhere without an exit plan.

The_Brood

The plan is the well-off with their big back gardens and money to spend will be alright restrictions or not, while us the lower earners will suffer because we have nothing to turn to when they take everything away. The decision makers are of course higher earners so it's all ok for them, they don't give the slightest damn how much we are left to rot in the pissing rain.

i_surge

Marco Ashy Sarsaparilla wrote: »

Singapore has a 'certain approach' to dealing with visitors and returnees.

Starting 11 Aug, they will fit (tamper proof) tracking devices on folks, (assume on legs like the grey tracksuit folks). So if you leave the house, when you shouldn't (1st couple of weeks of arrival), then you big trouble from da man.

S.Kor and HK have a more slimeline wristband (perhaps using bt beacons, rather than full on GPS) for new arrivals. The alert will flash/message the wristband directly (instead of phone) if their bigbro say's you're a naughty boy/girl, or one of the infected.

OTT but it will most likely work well.

hmmm

Carter Fit Trance wrote: »

Would you consider that maybe this isn't like 1918 because the virus is nowhere near as lethal, people are healthier and medicine is better?

Agreed on the medicine bit - but 1918 had multiple waves, with wave 2 & 3 far worse than wave 1. That was influenza, we can't assume anything with this virus.

If Covid was left spread with no restrictions, we've no idea what the impact would be - although we can get some idea by looking at poor parts of the world where hospitals have been overwhelmed.

Bit cynical

i_surge wrote: »

Where do they come from?

Same problem sure, the scale of it could be significantly lessened as it is with our Asian betters right now.

Otherwise we are on a slow bleed train to nowhere without an exit plan.

I think you need to be clearer on your plans, in particular, how do we keep numbers low without continuing strict measures until a vaccine? What is the exit plan to your plan?

upupup

1st infection,may 2020....Asymtomatic so not worried.:p
2nd infection,may 2021....mild but a bit worried and a little damage done inside.:o
3rd infection,may 2022....very sick,took a long time to get strong again.:mad:
4th infection,may 2023....weakened system from last year,I.C.U. close to death!:eek:
5th infection,may 2024....Death.:(

Its the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine:)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z0GFRcFm-aY