Will there be another lockdown?

MickeyLeari

MickeyLeari wrote: »

Are independent SAGE an official UK Govt advisory group or a think tank of broadly like minded scientists?

The latter:

What is Independent SAGE?
Independent SAGE is a group of scientists who are working together to provide independent scientific advice to the UK government and public on how to minimise deaths and support Britain’s recovery from the COVID-19 crisis

Who’s in charge?
Sir David King, the former chief Scientific Adviser to the UK government, chairs the group and oversees its reports.

Is it officially recognised?
No. Independent SAGE is independent of government and does not answer to it. It does however share its work openly with the government as well as with the public.

Are the scientists paid?
No. All the scientists involved are doing this as unpaid voluntary work. They are all committing hours of their time every week to discuss the science, explain it to and discuss it with the public and produce reports. They are putting advice into the public domain because they believe the public needs to understand the science surrounding COVID-19 and the thinking that underpins the government’s strategy.

What about Independent SAGE’s other activities?
A group of volunteers has been helping Independent SAGE with its public events and media activities. They have been organised by The Citizens. Academic members of Indie SAGE have provided a small grant to support this work.

What has it done so far?
Since the first meeting on May 4, Independent SAGE has produced six reports, hosted multiple public engagement events and answered questions relating to the science, from the public, journalists and broadcasters across a whole range of topics.

How does Independent SAGE engage with the public?
Independent SAGE was founded with the intention of putting scientific facts and debate into the public domain. We believe openness and transparency leads to better understanding and better decision making. We also believe it the responsibility of scientists and those with specialist knowledge to engage with the public and policy makers, in order to ensure that science benefits all of society.

antimatterx

antimatterx wrote: »

What will the world do if know vaccine is ever found? We can't live like this forever.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-tracking-every-global-effort-to-find-a-covid-19-vaccine-12030675

Odds are we will.

6 in phase 3 already.

Scuid Mhór

My prediction is that pubs are going to be closed and permissible groups will be reduced from ten to maybe four or just "household units" like when we were in the proper lockdown in April. These appear to be the most obvious causes of intra-community transmission and therefore it makes the most logical sense to hone in one these elements rather than announce a full lockdown. I feel as if this will mitigate the increasing spread of the virus and we will be looking at a full lockdown as we head into October/November.

antimatterx

Deleted User wrote: »

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-tracking-every-global-effort-to-find-a-covid-19-vaccine-12030675

Odds are we will.

6 in phase 3 already.

Thats great news actually. Thanks for the link.

seamus

Scuid Mhór wrote: »

My prediction is that pubs are going to be closed and permissible groups will be reduced from ten to maybe four or just "household units" like when we were in the proper lockdown in April. These appear to be the most obvious causes of intra-community transmission and therefore it makes the most logical sense to hone in one these elements rather than announce a full lockdown. I feel as if this will mitigate the increasing spread of the virus and we will be looking at a full lockdown as we head into October/November.

Our measures now need to be more focussed. Very blunt measures will damage public confidence and will not be effective. The LOK lockdown while blunt in itself, is a more targetted measure than a national lockdown. And this is the path they will go along - putting towns into lockdown, ringfencing hotspots, etc.

A national lockdown at this stage will make it look like the government hasn't a rashers what they're doing and are just scrambling for solutions.

The main focus will be on driving down the number of close contacts. A minority of infected people are the cause of most new cases. So they will try to find ways to target these. Whether it's because of the work they do, or because they're partying in someone else's house every day, the focus will be on finding those people with 10/15/30 close contacts and somehow restricting their ability to mingle.

Scuid Mhór

Scuid Mhór wrote: »

My prediction is that pubs are going to be closed and permissible groups will be reduced from ten to maybe four or just "household units" like when we were in the proper lockdown in April. These appear to be the most obvious causes of intra-community transmission and therefore it makes the most logical sense to hone in one these elements rather than announce a full lockdown. I feel as if this will mitigate the increasing spread of the virus and we will be looking at a full lockdown as we head into October/November.

De Gascun said we would probably go back to phase 2 type restrictions if we started to hit 100 cases a day again. We are probably at that stage now.

It is miserable situation and a FF govt don't like taking things away from people. Its not in their DNA. Its not a populist viewpoint to close restaurants, hairdressers or heaven forbid mass. That's why we have to go zero covid policy to get public buy in. That we wont keep locking and unlocking every few months. How can a business operate like that?

https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwim8NC9vqLrAhXToXEKHTaZDhYQFjAAegQIAxAB&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fnews%2Fhealth%2Fcoronavirus-ireland-could-return-to-phase-2-of-lockdown-if-cases-rise-doctor-warns-1.4306951&usg=AOvVaw0skQNVw6QsxkiHFB134zht

ShyMets

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Yes in this case neither have actually read the SAGE report and neither have you by the looks of it.

Keep digging the hole anyway.

First poster I've had to put on ignore, a shame.

Dont be so hasty. I think we're going to get some comedy gold out of this Poster

Connacht15

When the 3 counties were placed in lockdown recently, a beaut from Trinity was on claiming it needed to be for 6 weeks!
I can absolutely guarantee you no D4 Nax will be placed in anything like that level of lockdown!

Naos

Joeytheparrot wrote: »

Localised to certain areas.

The LOKdown is annoying people because parts of kildare are far away from the outbreak so it might evwn be 1 town e.g. Newbridge or Naas

Localised to areas would make sense.

Here's an example - Let's say you live in Leixlip and you need to go to Woodies (emergency), then you would typically drive to Woodies in Lucan which is 5.6km away.

Under this new lockdown however, you would have to drive to Woodies in Naas, which is 17.5km away and brings you closer to the outbreaks.

How does that make sense?

combat14

Deleted User wrote: »

De Gascun said we would probably go back to phase 2 type restrictions if we started to hit 100 cases a day again. We are probably at that stage now.

It is miserable situation and a FF govt don't like taking things away from people. Its not in their DNA. Its not a populist viewpoint to close restaurants, hairdressers or heaven forbid mass. That's why we have to go zero covid policy to get public buy in. That we wont keep locking and unlocking every few months. How can a business operate like that?

https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwim8NC9vqLrAhXToXEKHTaZDhYQFjAAegQIAxAB&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fnews%2Fhealth%2Fcoronavirus-ireland-could-return-to-phase-2-of-lockdown-if-cases-rise-doctor-warns-1.4306951&usg=AOvVaw0skQNVw6QsxkiHFB134zht

there have been approx 1100 cases in last 14 days or about 78 on average every day .. we are not quite at 100 a day but getting there soon if something is not done soon

schools back end of next week so will be very hard to keep number of contacts to 6 per person at that stage..so need to get daily numbers down fairly quick

combat14

interesting to see Ryanair response to covid for next 2 months:


Ryanair cuts flight capacity for September and October
Budget carrier Ryanair will cut its flight capacity by 20pc during September and October, saying “forward bookings have notably weakened over the last 10 days” as Covid-19 case number rise in some European countries.


The cuts will mostly take the shape of frequency reductions rather than outright route closures. The airline said “they will be heavily focused on those countries such as Spain, France and Sweden, where rising recent Covid case rates have led to increased travel restrictions”.

Ireland will also be affected due to its strict quarantine rules.

A spokesperson for the airline said:

Any effected [sic] passengers in Sept received email notification earlier today advising them of their options. Similar communications will be issued to the small number of affected passengers in Oct later today…

Proper testing at airports, and effective tracing (as is being conducted in Germany and Italy) is the only realistic and proportionate method of supervising safe intra-EU air travel while effectively limiting the spread of the Covid-19 virus.

harr

Naos wrote: »

Localised to areas would make sense.

Here's an example - Let's say you live in Leixlip and you need to go to Woodies (emergency), then you would typically drive to Woodies in Lucan which is 5.6km away.

Under this new lockdown however, you would have to drive to Woodies in Naas, which is 17.5km away and brings you closer to the outbreaks.

How does that make sense?

Like me , my address is in kildare but live direct on Laois border if I need anything I need to drive further into Kildare 20km into towns with outbreaks instead of Portlaoise 10 minutes down the road..

Foggy Jew

It’s gonna happen. Standby for announcement tomorrow approx 11.00am.

Thierry12

Foggy Jew wrote: »

It’s gonna happen. Standby for announcement tomorrow approx 11.00am.

Serious?

Flimsy_Boat

Seems a bit cryptic.

Walnut Salad

Thierry12 wrote: »

Serious?

Ah stop ffs. Serious about what like.

If he has something to say, let him say it. There are announcements every other damn day.

Foggy Jew

Watch this space.

Flimsy_Boat

Walnut Salad wrote: »

Ah stop ffs. Serious about what like.

If he has something to say, let him say it. There are announcements every other damn day.

It is oddly specific, down to the hour, with no justification. Strange to announce something and not explain it.

Connacht15

combat14 wrote: »

interesting to see Ryanair response to covid for next 2 months:


Ryanair cuts flight capacity for September and October
Budget carrier Ryanair will cut its flight capacity by 20pc during September and October, saying “forward bookings have notably weakened over the last 10 days” as Covid-19 case number rise in some European countries.


The cuts will mostly take the shape of frequency reductions rather than outright route closures. The airline said “they will be heavily focused on those countries such as Spain, France and Sweden, where rising recent Covid case rates have led to increased travel restrictions”.

Ireland will also be affected due to its strict quarantine rules.

A spokesperson for the airline said:

Any effected [sic] passengers in Sept received email notification earlier today advising them of their options. Similar communications will be issued to the small number of affected passengers in Oct later today…

Proper testing at airports, and effective tracing (as is being conducted in Germany and Italy) is the only realistic and proportionate method of supervising safe intra-EU air travel while effectively limiting the spread of the Covid-19 virus.

I still haven't got my refunds!:mad:

Walnut Salad

Flimsy_Boat wrote: »

It is oddly specific, down to the hour, with no justification. Strange to announce something and not explain it.

https://twitter.com/Philip_Ryan/status/1295481752786472960?s=19

New restrictions? Amazing. Unbelievable. GUBU.

No justification? Covid 19 perhaps?

We are 6 months into this drama. It cant still be so dramatic for people, can it?

touts

Foggy Jew wrote: »

It’s gonna happen. Standby for announcement tomorrow approx 11.00am.

Let me guess. You know someone who works in the department of the Taoiseach and Michael Martin bumped into them on the way out and discreetly told them they should do a shop tonight.

I think we've had husband, wife, girlfriend, boyfriend, aunt and uncle so far this week. So your contact must be your.......brother. I'l go for brother.

Uriel.

Flimsy_Boat wrote: »

It is oddly specific, down to the hour, with no justification. Strange to announce something and not explain it.

He's a few hours too early with his prediction. I would say about 2 or 3pm

The_Honeybadger

Possibly looking at pushing back school openings? I know it’s not helpful to speculate but I can’t think of what else would necessitate a full unscheduled cabinet meeting. Whatever is being recommended is not going to be popular in any case.

Del Griffith

combat14 wrote: »

interesting to see Ryanair response to covid for next 2 months:


Ryanair cuts flight capacity for September and October
Budget carrier Ryanair will cut its flight capacity by 20pc during September and October, saying “forward bookings have notably weakened over the last 10 days” as Covid-19 case number rise in some European countries.


The cuts will mostly take the shape of frequency reductions rather than outright route closures. The airline said “they will be heavily focused on those countries such as Spain, France and Sweden, where rising recent Covid case rates have led to increased travel restrictions”.

Ireland will also be affected due to its strict quarantine rules.

A spokesperson for the airline said:

Any effected [sic] passengers in Sept received email notification earlier today advising them of their options. Similar communications will be issued to the small number of affected passengers in Oct later today…

Proper testing at airports, and effective tracing (as is being conducted in Germany and Italy) is the only realistic and proportionate method of supervising safe intra-EU air travel while effectively limiting the spread of the Covid-19 virus.

Had a flight to Bristol In September cancelled on me earlier today. Very annoying.

The_Honeybadger

The_Honeybadger wrote: »

Possibly looking at pushing back school openings?

Drop Irish and Religion and bring in half the students on any given day.

touts

The_Honeybadger wrote: »

Possibly looking at pushing back school openings? I know it’s not helpful to speculate but I can’t think of what else would necessitate a full unscheduled cabinet meeting. Whatever is being recommended is not going to be popular in any case.

It certainly would be one way to give Norma Foley time to sort out the mess in the department. But based on her performance so far I suspect giving her more time may not be a good thing.

brendanwalsh

Foggy Jew wrote: »

It’s gonna happen. Standby for announcement tomorrow approx 11.00am.

Thanks Foggy, will do an early shop tomorrow.

No way in hell schools open in this climate.

The_Honeybadger

The_Honeybadger wrote: »

Possibly looking at pushing back school openings? I know it’s not helpful to speculate but I can’t think of what else would necessitate a full unscheduled cabinet meeting. Whatever is being recommended is not going to be popular in any case.

This is very unFF. They love populism.

gifted

brendanwalsh wrote: »

Thanks Foggy, will do an early shop tomorrow.

No way in hell schools open in this climate.

Schools will open....government number one focus.....

Parsnips

Deleted User wrote: »

Drop Irish and Religion and bring in half the students on any given day.

Now THAT is a very sensible idea.