Will there be another lockdown?

Parsnips

Mr. Karate wrote: »

And these same people who easily give up their freedoms wonder how Hitler and the like ever rose to power.

It brings to mind the old saying "A Man who will surrender his freedom for security deserves neither."

Oh dear God. Hitler now is it.
Moron.
Thread unfollowed.

niallo27

hmmm wrote: »

In reality about 50% are "mild" or asymptomatic.

About 40% would be regarded as "moderate" - just short of hospitalisation. This is extremely unpleasant (and scary to the patients and their family).

About 5 to 10% seem to need hospitalisation, with a small number of them ending up in ICU. The vast majority will be fine with good treatment, but if our hospitals run out of equipment and staff many of the hospitalised group will be in trouble.

This is not a trivial illness. With good treatment it is very survivable, but if we allow this to spread rapidly our hospitals cannot cope.

Up to 10% need hospitalization, why do we not have hundreds in hospital so. Something doesnt add up here. On the hospitals cant cope scenario, has any country in Europe experienced this since what happened to Italy.

lee_baby_simms

niallo27 wrote: »

Up to 10% need hospitalization, why do we not have hundreds in hospital so. Something doesnt add up here.

Exactly, also using detected cases rather than the unknown infection rate to derive percentages is pointless.

Russman

You'd swear almost every government on the planet decided to crash their economy just for sh1ts and giggles, the way some people are trivialising this virus.
I think for Ireland there are two cultural issues at play. Our first reaction to a new rule is generally "how can I get round that ?" and then there's the alcohol problem too. I reckon we could see waves of partial lockdowns followed by partial reopenings for the next year or so until there's hopefully a vaccine.
I think that "living with the virus" is not really possible unless we accept less than 100% reopening of society.

Thierry12

uptherebels wrote: »

Care to elaborate?

Where to start?

5-10% of cases require hospitalisation

We've had well over 1500 cases in the last 3 weeks

Currently 18 are in hospital

I'm not a mathmetican but that ain't 10% hospitalisation

That's known cases, in reality 2 to 3 times are walking around that we didn't catch, say it's 3,000 cases

Did we have 300 people in hospital getting Covid treatment in the last 3 week's

Did we even have 100 people?

We have no clue how many are, have, or will be infected, it's all guessing

It could be 1% need hospitalisation for all we know

odyssey06

niallo27 wrote: »

Up to 10% need hospitalization, why do we not have hundreds in hospital so. Something doesnt add up here. On the hospitals cant cope scenario, has any country in Europe experienced this since what happened to Italy.

I think the 'something' would be the age profile of the current cases... approximately 70% of the recent cases are under 45.

HeidiHeidi

Russman wrote: »

You'd swear almost every government on the planet decided to crash their economy just for sh1ts and giggles, the way some people are trivialising this virus.
I think for Ireland there are two cultural issues at play. Our first reaction to a new rule is generally "how can I get round that ?" and then there's the alcohol problem too. I reckon we could see waves of partial lockdowns followed by partial reopenings for the next year or so until there's hopefully a vaccine.
I think that "living with the virus" is not really possible unless we accept less than 100% reopening of society.

This x 100

hmmm

niallo27 wrote: »

Up to 10% need hospitalization, why do we not have hundreds in hospital so. Something doesnt add up here. On the hospitals cant cope scenario, has any country in Europe experienced this since what happened to Italy.

Italy came very close. And the death rate in parts of Italy and China were much higher than other areas, suggesting a health system which was struggling to cope.

We've had 27,309 cases and 3,388 hospitalised (12.41%). 441 in ICU. I appreciate that is overestimating the numbers requiring hospitalisation, but even if it was in low single digit percentage it is still too much for our hospitals to cope with if they all arrived in a short period.

And if you're going to say that cases are undercounted, you should be backing that up with stats and not simply relying on your intuition.

Tenzor07

Parsnips wrote: »

Oh here we go with the conspiracy theorists.
so whats the alternative if the **** hits the fan... Just let people die.
clearly not everyone can be thrusted to think about others.
Its not about FREEDOM. Will anyone die if sports are 100% off for 2020. will the world end if Pubs stay shut until 2021.
A minor inconvenience in the grand scheme of things..... Get a grip.

Oh here we go with the labelling of people whose opinion isn't in line with the mainstream narrative...label them all "conspiracy theorists" that will silence them and keep them in line.. turn a blind eye to whatever we are told to do..

How dare people have differing opinions and not want to question or fact check things we are told by the unelected....
How dare people want to see the science which brought an unelected committee to their decisions, which is out of line with the rest of the EU...

Let's just accept everything we are told like automatons...

I really hope people with opinions like this poster don't have to use any critical thinking skills in their employment...

niallo27

hmmm wrote: »

Italy came very close. And the death rate in parts of Italy and China were much higher than other areas, suggesting a health system which was struggling to cope.

We've had 27,309 cases and 3,388 hospitalised (12.41%). 441 in ICU. I appreciate that is overestimating the numbers requiring hospitalisation, but even if it was in low single digit percentage it is still too much for our hospitals to cope with if they all arrived in a short period.

And if you're going to say that cases are undercounted, you should be backing that up with stats and not simply relying on your intuition.

My question was has any hospital system become overwhelmed since the introduction of social distancing and good hygiene. Why would our hospital system collapse but not any other country.

niallo27

odyssey06 wrote: »

I think the 'something' would be the age profile of the current cases... approximately 70% of the recent cases are under 45.

So its 10% of anybody who gets it, its 10% of a certain age demographic. This is quiet important.

wellwhynot

Russman wrote: »

You'd swear almost every government on the planet decided to crash their economy just for sh1ts and giggles, the way some people are trivialising this virus.
I think for Ireland there are two cultural issues at play. Our first reaction to a new rule is generally "how can I get round that ?" and then there's the alcohol problem too. I reckon we could see waves of partial lockdowns followed by partial reopenings for the next year or so until there's hopefully a vaccine.
I think that "living with the virus" is not really possible unless we accept less than 100% reopening of society.

The government were right to lock down in the beginning as they didn’t know what was coming and needed time to prepare. We now know this virus was circulating as far back as January. The huge figures we were told would die in March did not happen. We didn’t need the make shift hospital I n City West. If you are under 65 you are at more risk of cancer than Covid. In the meantime domestic violence, mental health, education and cancer detections have all suffered hugely. You can die of anything in this country now as long as it is not Covid. We will have the deepest recession ever seen after this. Hundreds of thousands will lose their jobs for what is, for most of the working age population, a low risk disease.

odyssey06

niallo27 wrote: »

So its 10% of anybody who gets it, its 10% of a certain age demographic. This is quiet important.

The % is strongly correlated with age and then pre-existing conditions.

This CDC report has:

• hospitalization rate was 4.6 per 100,000 population
• 2.5 in those aged 18–49 years
• 7.4 in those aged 50–64 years
• 13.8 in those aged ≥65 years.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6915e3.htm

Another country could have different percentages based on the demographics of its case count. I think in Ireland it was 20% hospitalisation for over 80s.

SusieBlue

Italy’s mistake was that they tried to save everyone.
And by that, I mean that at the very beginning of their surge they put people on ventilators and into ICU who had no hope of recovery, who were likely very elderly and and probably had many underlying conditions as well.

This meant that as demand grew, there wasn’t enough ventilators to go around, which meant they had to make those hard decisions about taking someone off a ventilator to give it to another.
It wasn’t their fault, they were the first European country to be hit hard but that’s why their health system all but collapsed.

You only need to look at our hospitalisations vs ICU cases with overall deaths in mind to see that even though our hospitals were thankfully never overwhelmed, not everyone was put in ICU and not everyone was ventilated.
A lot of people died in nursing/care homes and on general covid wards, these people weren’t deemed well enough to be ventilated and put through ICU, which is a trauma in itself. We were and are only putting people through that if they have a chance of recovering.

So that’s why Italy’s hospitalisations were so high and why their health system buckled, and we were all able to learn from their mistakes. It isn’t an overall reflection of a wordwide trend at all.

wellwhynot

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I think your right,our average age in ICU rarely went above 63,while average death age was 79 iirc


Spain at one stage,stopped ventilating anyone over age of 60,i dont want my folks to get this,and die/be refused treatment coz someone wants a few pints

This is not about wanting a few pints and I wish people would stop trotting out this line. This is about wanting a functioning society, economy and health care system. We cannot have that with so many unemployed. We have plenty of ventilators and oxygen now. It is now thought ventilation is not the correct treatment for many and does more harm than good. Your parents and anyone in a high risk group should assess their own risk accordingly.

3xh

lee_baby_simms wrote: »

The Aussie Ronan Glynn. Australia is a basket case.

There are 17 posts after this quoted post with no comment, thanks, etc.

Are people here that blind to what this implies or did they see it's 2:20mins long and decide it can't be important, back to whinging about younger people drinking and dodgy stats?

Between the news last week of NZ and their now state run forced quarantine if you test positive as opposed to being directed to stay at home and this news out of Australia of No jab, No pay, can people not see the consequences of such policies and question why would Governments go down that route?

That is massive news, folks, regarding forced vaccines.

I urge those who skipped over this video to take the two minutes to see what is being proposed.

It's a massive change to how we live our lives currently. To think that way of life, freedom to choose, etc, needs to change, collectively, worldwide, based on this covid/coronavirus issue is very worrisome.

Be careful what you cry out for from Government.

If you've still an urge for that rushed vaccine, refresh your memories on the H1N1 flu vaccine in 2009. And it's not a CT. It happened, was acknowledged and affected many people irrevocably and their lives in the process.

hmmm

3xh wrote: »

There are 17 posts after this quoted post with no comment, thanks, etc.

Oh look, a new account with 1 post.

newuser99999

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Spain at one stage,stopped ventilating anyone over age of 60,i dont want my folks to get this,and die/be refused treatment coz someone wants a few pints

As if elderly people haven’t been on the news the last few days acting as if it’s their god given right to go to mass.

3xh

hmmm wrote: »

Oh look, a new account with 1 post.

How do you join this club without posts?

3xh

3xh wrote: »

How do you join this club without posts?

Is there something in my 'first' post you disagree with? Or think is incorrect?

VillageIdiot71

lee_baby_simms wrote: »

The Aussie Ronan Glynn. Australia is a basket case.

https://twitter.com/DamoPelham/status/1296012665274302464?s=20

There is something very odd when folk are seriously talking about making a vaccine compulsory, when said vaccine hasn't even completed its trials yet.

The mindset needs to change. There's no reason to give credence to the claims that drug companies make for their products. That's why we've a licencing system, to make sure the stuff is actually safe to use.

All any responsible person should be saying if asked "should it be mandatory to accept vaccination against Covid?" is "Meaningless question, there is no such vaccine."

VillageIdiot71

VillageIdiot71 wrote: »

There is something very odd when folk are seriously talking about making a vaccine compulsory, when said vaccine hasn't even completed its trials yet.

The mindset needs to change. There's no reason to give credence to the claims that drug companies make for their products. That's why we've a licencing system, to make sure the stuff is actually safe to use.

All any responsible person should be saying if asked "should it be mandatory to accept vaccination against Covid?" is "Meaningless question, there is no such vaccine."

Austrailia policy is very much zero case/death. Kick can until vaccine. He probably is right to say that as population will be highly susceptible given their policy of seal of country until a vaccine arrives. Think it is a fair trade off to be honest. I will take vaccine when available. Trade off being I will probably not get very sick with covid and not pass it on to my family. Downside risks are there is potential to be side effects especially earlier versions. Everything now are trade offs and balancing risks. There is no perfect. Every country and population are balancing these risks.

TomTomTim

VillageIdiot71 wrote: »

All any responsible person should be saying if asked "should it be mandatory to accept vaccination against Covid?" is "Meaningless question, there is no such vaccine."

Quiet down, Comrade. You must be obedient to the state at all times. Question nothing, believe everything.

3xh

VillageIdiot71 wrote: »

There is something very odd when folk are seriously talking about making a vaccine compulsory, when said vaccine hasn't even completed its trials yet.

The mindset needs to change. There's no reason to give credence to the claims that drug companies make for their products. That's why we've a licencing system, to make sure the stuff is actually safe to use.

All any responsible person should be saying if asked "should it be mandatory to accept vaccination against Covid?" is "Meaningless question, there is no such vaccine."

The problem is, although it's hypothetical now, that licensing system has failed people before. And when it did, it failed those who chose to take the vaccine and whilst under no financial pressure to do so.

This is now the opposite case.

How would we feel, individually, if any subsequent vaccine does similar damage to recipients who did not want to take it but did so in fear of losing their job, unemployment benefit, ability to travel, attend college with subsequent reduced employment opportunities, etc?

I appreciate it's hypothetical but the optics are pointing that way and we can still ask ourselves now is that what we're happy to see be imposed on all, no questions asked. All over this coronavirus?

Russman

Russman wrote: »

You'd swear almost every government on the planet decided to crash their economy just for sh1ts and giggles, the way some people are trivialising this virus.
I think for Ireland there are two cultural issues at play. Our first reaction to a new rule is generally "how can I get round that ?" and then there's the alcohol problem too. I reckon we could see waves of partial lockdowns followed by partial reopenings for the next year or so until there's hopefully a vaccine.
I think that "living with the virus" is not really possible unless we accept less than 100% reopening of society.

We do have to accept limitations in our life for next 18 months.

I can live with restrictions (no choice anyhow) , the best I think would be restrictions on people coming and going from this island. Surely that's the least harmful for us as a society. Yes we need to import/export goods, but other than that people do not need to be leaving the country or people coming in. If we as a society accepted that I think we could have a more sustained opening. The average person I think could live with no sun holiday for 18 months to enjoy greater freedoms while at home.

RickDeckard

Parsnips wrote: »

Oh dear God. Hitler now is it.
Moron.
Thread unfollowed.

I think you miss the point. Just because the H word is mentioned does not undermine the point being made.

The Garda will not enter my land without a warrent , over my dead body, I mean that.

These are our fundamental rights that out forefathers died for.

None are so blind.

VillageIdiot71

Deleted User wrote: »

I will take vaccine when available.

We all make our own choices, and that's fine.

But can I respectfully suggest that you reflect on whether you'd be more accurate in saying "I will take vaccine if available."

We're all entitled to our personal opinions. But we can't invent personal facts. No-one can make any kind of generally valid statements about risks and benefits when we've no idea what those risks and benefits are.

And, you'll appreciate, no-one is expecting perfection. An illness without treatment or protection is a state of imperfection. We're all wary of people saying they can make the world perfect - that's what should make folk sceptical about claims made for potential vaccines.

Thierry12

VillageIdiot71 wrote: »

There is something very odd when folk are seriously talking about making a vaccine compulsory, when said vaccine hasn't even completed its trials yet.

The mindset needs to change. There's no reason to give credence to the claims that drug companies make for their products. That's why we've a licencing system, to make sure the stuff is actually safe to use.

All any responsible person should be saying if asked "should it be mandatory to accept vaccination against Covid?" is "Meaningless question, there is no such vaccine."

You'll have no choice buddy :pac:

One we will be getting digged into the arm or ass " Oxford " is an RNA vaccine

Currently, there are no RNA vaccines approved for human use.

What can go wrong :pac:

gral6

FF lock up the whole country! Just do not forget to take a pay cut(turned out to be a pay rise) before ! We are all in it together my ass!

VillageIdiot71

VillageIdiot71 wrote: »

We all make our own choices, and that's fine.

But can I respectfully suggest that you reflect on whether you'd be more accurate in saying "I will take vaccine if available."

We're all entitled to our personal opinions. But we can't invent personal facts. No-one can make any kind of generally valid statements about risks and benefits when we've no idea what those risks and benefits are.

And, you'll appreciate, no-one is expecting perfection. An illness without treatment or protection is a state of imperfection. We're all wary of people saying they can make the world perfect - that's what should make folk sceptical about claims made for potential vaccines.

6 vaccines in stage 3 and hundreds in earlier stages.

I'm very confident.

Science always wins in the end.

If my government says it safe and I should take it good enough for me.

Should it be compulsory, probably.

Austrailia has more a moral high ground to say that given low level of cases and deaths in country.

If we control virus better the government have more of an argument to make it compulsory I think.

Not taking the vaccine is not perfect and taking the vaccine is not perfect.

I can live with a few side effects if any to end this situation and get people back to "normal" society.


https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-tracking-every-global-effort-to-find-a-covid-19-vaccine-12030675