Will there be another lockdown?

i_surge

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

What you have highlighted pretty much sums up the dilemma the Government faces.

If there is a second lockdown, the economy will collapse. However if the virus starts to spread uncontrollable in the community people won't be congregating in shops, eating in restraunts or drinking in pubs - i.e. the economy will collapse regardless.

Likewise, if the hospitals are forced to implement cuts to outpatient appointments and so on again then the health system will collapse. However if there is uncontrolled spreading of the virus in the community the hospital system will collapse regardless as it won't be able to cope with the demand.

Things are bleak and the Government knows it. We can blame the Government all we want but the stark reality is that this virus is going to cause an awful lot of destruction socially and economically yet and there is **** all the Government can do about it, to be honest.

Between a rock and a hard place. Dedicated short term hard action is the only answer that doesn't sink the economy.

Flimsy_Boat

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

What you have highlighted pretty much sums up the dilemma the Government faces.

If there is a second lockdown, the economy will collapse. However if the virus starts to spread uncontrollable in the community people won't be congregating in shops, eating in restraunts or drinking in pubs - i.e. the economy will collapse regardless.

Likewise, if the hospitals are forced to implement cuts to outpatient appointments and so on again then the health system will collapse. However if there is uncontrolled spreading of the virus in the community the hospital system will collapse regardless as it won't be able to cope with the demand.

Things are bleak and the Government knows it. We can blame the Government all we want but the stark reality is that this virus is going to cause an awful lot of destruction socially and economically yet and there is **** all the Government can do about it, to be honest.

If the economy will collapse either way, then I'd rather they delay it as long as possible. Therefore, restrictions vs full lockdown is better.

Tenzor07

So is anyone stocking up on food and essentials? I know people who are building up a months supply of food etc.
They reckon a return to phase 1 lockdown is coming in the next few weeks but will be Phase 1+ with stronger measures in place and enforced by the Gardai, and all the current confusions are just to keep us all distracted while they prepare for Phase1+
Remember, 6 months ago we never thought we’d see the day when everyone was told to stay home.

Dempo1

Tenzor07 wrote: »

So is anyone stocking up on food and essentials? I know people who are building up a months supply of food etc.
They reckon a return to phase 1 lockdown is coming in the next few weeks but will be Phase 1+ with stronger measures in place and enforced by the Gardai, and all the current confusions are just to keep us all distracted while they prepare for Phase1+
Remember, 6 months ago we never thought we’d see the day when everyone was told to stay home.

Ah now, it's not that bad is it?

Wanderer78

Tenzor07 wrote: »

So is anyone stocking up on food and essentials? I know people who are building up a months supply of food etc.
They reckon a return to phase 1 lockdown is coming in the next few weeks but will be Phase 1+ with stronger measures in place and enforced by the Gardai, and all the current confusions are just to keep us all distracted while they prepare for Phase1+
Remember, 6 months ago we never thought we’d see the day when everyone was told to stay home.

fcuk sake lads, our governments are not conspiring against us! they are trying to deal with a highly complex and dynamic situation, fcuk ups are inevitable

Tenzor07

Wanderer78 wrote: »

fcuk sake lads, our governments are not conspiring against us! they are trying to deal with a highly complex and dynamic situation, fcuk ups are inevitable

It’s one fck up after the other, more disaster than correct decisions, bordering on outright incompetence, which with the increase in cases leads me to believe phase 1+ Is on the way.

i_surge

Tenzor07 wrote: »

It’s one fck up after the other, more disaster than correct decisions, bordering on outright incompetence, which with the increase in cases leads me to believe phase 1+ Is on the way.

The worst of all is if they start going back phases without a structured plan or set time frames.

bush

Quick stock up on toilet roll

Wanderer78

Tenzor07 wrote: »

It’s one fck up after the other, more disaster than correct decisions, bordering on outright incompetence, which with the increase in cases leads me to believe phase 1+ Is on the way.

yup, fcuk ups are gonna happen, be prepared for more of them, maybe we ll return to phase 1, maybe we wont, i suspect we wont, but i could be wrong, and theyre not trying to distract us, theyre just fumbling their way through it, like most other governments

Wanderer78

bush wrote: »

Quick stock up on toilet roll

...and bread!

ELM327

Wanderer78 wrote: »

fcuk sake lads, our governments are not conspiring against us! they are trying to deal with a highly complex and dynamic situation, fcuk ups are inevitable

I agree. The amount of nonsense and fearmongering going on now is immense.
We may return to a phase 1/1+ lockdown but without much more severe enforcement by AGS, it won't work.

Paddygreen

Wanderer78 wrote: »

fcuk sake lads, our governments are not conspiring against us! they are trying to deal with a highly complex and dynamic situation, fcuk ups are inevitable

+1. 110%. People just need to follow the rules, listen to our experts and do what our leaders say. Our government really cares about us and they are working so so hard, even putting their lives at risk so that we can live in a country that is safe and well managed. I would like to take this opportunity to congratulate An Taoiseach, great job so far.

dave 27

They should reduce flights from October to business and emergency only, accepting that we are in summer season now so the volume is too high but if they said from October 1st for X amount of months flights will be limited, it may reduce the amount of cases coming in over winter periods.

May need to go in to a 2 week lockdown to significantly reduce the number and from that point we will be at the stage where we were a few weeks ago with 10s of cases a day instead of hundreds and it will keep everything at a managable position for the winter months

Wanderer78

Paddygreen wrote: »

+1. 110%. People just need to follow the rules, listen to our experts and do what our leaders say. Our government really cares about us and they are working so so hard, even putting their lives at risk so that we can live in a country that is safe and well managed. I would like to take this opportunity to congratulate An Taoiseach, great job so far.

well i wouldnt go that far now, but it really is a sh1t job, almost impossible to get it right, under the circumstances

Niallof9

SusieBlue wrote: »

Many illnesses and viruses can cause long term issues for a select few unlucky people.
A bad chest infection can leave scarring on the lungs and cause long term respiratory issues. I know someone who developed epilepsy as a result of having viral meningitis as a child.
People have such tunnel vision with this, it’s like we can accept that various illnesses and death are part of life unless it’s coronavirus, in which case it must be stopped at all costs, with everything else (including other illnesses) be damned.

If we reported on heart attacks, cancers and strokes the same way we do coronavirus no one would want to ever get up out of bed again.

completely agree with this. even though Donnelly ws talking ****e yesterday he had the makings of a point - Approximately 1.35 million people die each year on roads across the World. 9.5 million cancer deaths. Risk and death is part of life.

I'm not in the its just a flu camp, but its hard to deny that this is the first test of the social media experiment, and how 24 hour rolling news and social media blend into an absolute monster full of speculation, fear, hyperbole, rumour, rage. I mean the red tops always filled this role since the 1800s but the spread of it stopped on a barstool. Now everything is repeated or regurgitated by a journalist stepping out of their editorialized role, politicians, narcissistic commentators, ill informed and conspiracy nuts. Just compare the number of color commentators writing today in a paper as opposed to a decade ago. Its the age of the opinion and everyone carries their own soapbox. And unfortunately its mostly ignorant.

On the positive side of it, when the really bad virus hits, which it will, well we will be somewhat prepared.

gral6

dave 27 wrote: »

They should reduce flights from October to business and emergency only, accepting that we are in summer season now so the volume is too high but if they said from October 1st for X amount of months flights will be limited, it may reduce the amount of cases coming in over winter periods.

May need to go in to a 2 week lockdown to significantly reduce the number and from that point we will be at the stage where we were a few weeks ago with 10s of cases a day instead of hundreds and it will keep everything at a managable position for the winter months

Forget about incoming cases. Our biggest problem now is that Kildare people are spreading this deadly virus around country. Can they seal Kildare properly ffs? Thanks God a lot of hotels cancel bookings for Kildare people as they are afraid that their staff will contract that deadly virus.

smelly sock

I think I speak for everyone in Kildare at this point that they can stick their restrictions up the arses.

They can't do wtf they want to do and expect the rest of us to live by illogical restrictions.

**** them.

Wanderer78

smelly sock wrote: »

I think I speak for everyone in Kildare at this point that they can stick their restrictions up the arses.

They can't do wtf they want to do and expect the rest of us to live by illogical restrictions.

**** them.

i think you folks should show them, and reopen the pubs, throw major all nighters, im sure you ll be fine!

smelly sock

Wanderer78 wrote: »

i think you folks should show them, and reopen the pubs, throw major all nighters, im sure you ll be fine!

I think the businesses should reopen on Monday on the same terms as the rest of the country. I think Kildare GAA should press ahead with their fixtures.

Regardless not a hope after the carry on of our policy and law makers that they extend a lockdown in Kildare.

Hubertj

i can't see another hard lockdown working. People wont buy into it. Firstly because everyone is fed up of it. Secondly, government has lost credibility.

Some serious tin foil hat theories going around in here

Tenzor07

Paddygreen wrote: »

+1. 110%. People just need to follow the rules, listen to our experts and do what our leaders say. Our government really cares about us and they are working so so hard, even putting their lives at risk so that we can live in a country that is safe and well managed. I would like to take this opportunity to congratulate An Taoiseach, great job so far.

I had a response for you and the second word was off
And in my other response included words like you F then ing and W....

SusieBlue

Hubertj wrote: »

i can't see another hard lockdown working. People wont buy into it. Firstly because everyone is fed up of it. Secondly, government has lost credibility.

Some serious tin foil hat theories going around in here

Me too. Public support is diminishing by the second, particularly after yesterday’s news, and I think if the government tried to pull a stunt like that there will be low levels of compliance.

The might reimpose some limited restrictions a localised level but putting the whole nation back into total lockdown won’t happen. We can’t afford the social welfare bill as it is, let alone if we were to put 1.8 million back onto the covid payment.

MickeyLeari

This golf club dinner has demonstrated that people cannot be trusted. So another lockdown it should be, close the border with the North and shut the airport. That will teach people.

Diarmuid

MickeyLeari wrote: »

That will teach people.

You're letting the mask slip.

Paddygreen

MickeyLeari wrote: »

This golf club dinner has demonstrated that people cannot be trusted. So another lockdown it should be, close the border with the North and shut the airport. That will teach people.

Examples need to be made to keep people in line with our experts guidelines, we are in it together. The government needs to hold firm and it was a good call to keep Kildare restricted to keep everyone safe, stay home = stay safe. People like carrots but there is no time to spend coaxing them during a terrifying emergency, that’s why the stick has to be put through it’s paces. As Lenin used to say, “it’s true that liberty is precious, so precious that it must be carefully rationed” We need to keep people in their place to maintain order.

MickeyLeari

Diarmuid wrote: »

You're letting the mask slip.

I have been very much on the side of relaxing restrictions for some time but doing so in a manner which ensure that the risk is managed.

It seems to me that, as a country, we cannot manage those risks. We had known issues such as meat plants and could not deal with them so if we want to eradicate the virus then we will have to lock down again indefinitely.

Personally I don’t mind - not really into pubs and don’t fancy been on the clock in a restaurant and have been home working for the last 5 months.

Probably best to go with the first lock down level (2km, construction shut etc) but I am not sure we can afford the payments or the TWSS so not sure how long it can be in reality. Maybe 2 months should do it.

The problem as well is opening up again if other countries don’t take the same approach. But at least we will have tried.

SusieBlue

MickeyLeari wrote: »

I have been very much on the side of relaxing restrictions for some time but doing so in a manner which ensure that the risk is managed.

It seems to me that, as a country, we cannot manage those risks. We had known issues such as meat plants and could not deal with them so if we want to eradicate the virus then we will have to lock down again indefinitely.

Personally I don’t mind - not really into pubs and don’t fancy been on the clock in a restaurant and have been home working for the last 5 months.

Probably best to go with the first lock down level (2km, construction shut etc) but I am not sure we can afford the payments or the TWSS so not sure how long it can be in reality. Maybe 2 months should do it.

The problem as well is opening up again if other countries don’t take the same approach. But at least we will have tried.

But lockdown won’t eradicate the virus. New Zealand is an example of that, all it will take is one asymptomatic person to start the whole thing up again and we’re back to square one.
Unless you are suggesting we stay in stay in lockdown indefinitely until we have a vaccine?

MickeyLeari

SusieBlue wrote: »

.
Unless you are suggesting we stay in stay in lockdown indefinitely until we have a vaccine?

If that’s what it takes. And no problem closing the border with the North - I am not a fan of a United Ireland so that does not bother me either.

I reserve my position in getting a one way flight or cargo ship out of here but let’s see what happens.

odyssey06

MickeyLeari wrote: »

I have been very much on the side of relaxing restrictions for some time but doing so in a manner which ensure that the risk is managed.
It seems to me that, as a country, we cannot manage those risks. We had known issues such as meat plants and could not deal with them so if we want to eradicate the virus then we will have to lock down again indefinitely.
Personally I don’t mind - not really into pubs and don’t fancy been on the clock in a restaurant and have been home working for the last 5 months.
Probably best to go with the first lock down level (2km, construction shut etc) but I am not sure we can afford the payments or the TWSS so not sure how long it can be in reality. Maybe 2 months should do it.
The problem as well is opening up again if other countries don’t take the same approach. But at least we will have tried.

I think it's clear the state doesn't the enforcement capabilities (whether it's a matter of will or resources) that other states do and that's why we have "all or nothing" situations such as keeping pubs shut, and why we were slower coming out of lockdown than other states.

That could well lead us back into lockdown again, more likely Phase 1+.
Or at least, I think it will lead to NPHET pushing for that.
Will the cabinet agree given the economic costs?
What sort of timeline... October-November? January-February?
I can't see a lockdown for Christmas passing muster with the government.

MickeyLeari

odyssey06 wrote: »

I think it's clear the state doesn't the enforcement capabilities (whether it's a matter of will or resources) that other states do and that's why we have "all or nothing" situations such as keeping pubs shut, and why we were slower coming out of lockdown than other states.

That could well lead us back into lockdown again, more likely Phase 1+.
Or at least, I think it will lead to NPHET pushing for that.
Will the cabinet agree given the economic costs?
What sort of timeline... October-November? January-February?
I can't see a lockdown for Christmas passing muster with the government.

Give us all a free RTÉ Guide at Christmas and cancel the TV Licence fee and we will be grand. Maybe enforce a booze ban in November and January (dry months) but open up for December? We need to have some more radical thinking in supporting the lock down.

Can you imagine Christmas with all those people flying home and what risks that may bring? Or the musicians on Grafton Street on Christmas Eve with the mad crowds or even the risks of the Joe Duffy Christmas Eve show at Bewley’s.