Will there be another lockdown?

AUDI20

gral6 wrote: »

The restrictions for Kildare can only be tightened more. Their rate of infection is higher than American and Brazilian.

You should be a Comedian, joke of the day

gral6

AUDI20 wrote: »

You should be a Comedian, joke of the day

I should run NPHET! No one will ever leave his cell then !

froog

another lockdown at this point is simply not possible. rightly or wrongly, there would be massive protests and mass non compliance.

Russman

froog wrote: »

another lockdown at this point is simply not possible. rightly or wrongly, there would be massive protests and mass non compliance.

I’m not so sure. We’re generally not a protesting race, you’d have the usual headbangers and rabble but I think a majority would realise governments aren’t doing all this for the craic.

There’d be some non compliance, there’s always going to be an element of that, but that’s easily dealt with now that they’re not a caretaker government and can pass legislation. It wouldn’t even have to be direct enforcement per se, if it really came to it it could be more subtle, maybe involving taxation or licensing/certifications.

The_Honeybadger

Russman wrote: »

I’m not so sure. We’re generally not a protesting race, you’d have the usual headbangers and rabble but I think a majority would realise governments aren’t doing all this for the craic.

There’d be some non compliance, there’s always going to be an element of that, but that’s easily dealt with now that they’re not a caretaker government and can pass legislation. It wouldn’t even have to be direct enforcement per se, if it really came to it it could be more subtle, maybe involving taxation or licensing/certifications.

Only reason to fully lock down again would be to protect the HSE from collapse. Back in March we had no idea what was coming and feared an Italy style crisis, we didn’t have the testing or ICU capacity to take any chances, hence the full scale lockdown.

No way it happens again any time soon, it’s not politically, socially or economically tenable at this stage, nor is it necessary. Yes cases have inevitably risen as restrictions were relaxed but the health system is coping and is in no immediate danger of being overwhelmed. There was always going to be ups and downs and this is it for a while.

Expect more of the same for a while, clusters, local lockdowns etc, and if it gets really out of hand possibly another national lockdown with all non essential businesses closing. We are a bit away from that though. Politicians are in thin ice as it is and will be very very slow to go down that road again.

mandrake04

The_Honeybadger wrote: »

Only reason to fully lock down again would be to protect the HSE from collapse. Back in March we had no idea what was coming and feared an Italy style crisis, we didn’t have the testing or ICU capacity to take any chances, hence the full scale lockdown.

No way it happens again any time soon, it’s not politically, socially or economically tenable at this stage, nor is it necessary. Yes cases have inevitably risen as restrictions were relaxed but the health system is coping and is in no immediate danger of being overwhelmed. There was always going to be ups and downs and this is it for a while.

Expect more of the same for a while, clusters, local lockdowns etc, and if it gets really out of hand possibly another national lockdown with all non essential businesses closing. We are a bit away from that though. Politicians are in thin ice as it is and will be very very slow to go down that road again.

This is true, winter tends to fill the hospitals with sick and the shorter days, poor weather more accidents especially around Xmas parties and drinking fighting etc can always be busy.

They will just keep ticking over local lockdowns and keep the Break-glass emergency total lockdown in their back pocket if required for peak clusterfuck season. Although it all depends on whats going on in Europe, if there is major resurgence and lock downs in the more influential Euro states then Ireland will probably follow.

Happydays2020

If there is general social distancing In higher risk settings and if the HSE continues its serial testing of risk areas such as meat plants, nursing homes etc then there should not be a need for a general lock down.

What is needed is a smarter approach based on realism to International travel, efficient testing on demand, and having a strategy which has one eye on the virus and one eye on the economy/society/general public health.

odyssey06

Government re-iterating not actively considering lockdown for Dublin despite rise in cases... Speaking to Newstalk’s Pat Kenny Show, Health minister Stephen Donnelly said putting Dublin into a localised lockdown is “not being contemplated at the moment”.
https://www.thejournal.ie/coronavirus-dublin-lockdown-5193248-Sep2020/

tobefrank321

There is no need to panic or talk about new lockdowns unless hospital ICU admissions or deaths rise considerably and so far they are relatively low.

road_high

odyssey06 wrote: »

Government re-iterating not actively considering lockdown for Dublin despite rise in cases... Speaking to Newstalk’s Pat Kenny Show, Health minister Stephen Donnelly said putting Dublin into a localised lockdown is “not being contemplated at the moment”.
https://www.thejournal.ie/coronavirus-dublin-lockdown-5193248-Sep2020/

Ie they simply can’t afford it. They’d do it in a heartbeat again if it were affordable

odyssey06

tobefrank321 wrote: »

There is no need to panic or talk about new lockdowns unless hospital ICU admissions or deaths rise considerably and so far they are relatively low.

As someone living in Dublin who cancelled trip to France for a staycation instead, I really hope you are right
Ironically I'd probably have less hassle getting to France in a lockdown than Louth.

tobefrank321

odyssey06 wrote: »

As someone living in Dublin who cancelled trip to France for a staycation instead, I really hope you are right
Ironically I'd probably have less hassle getting to France in a lockdown than Louth.

Either its the same virus with the same effects now or else thousands were being unknowingly infected back in march and april and only a miniscule number ended up in ICU or hospitalised relative to that.

Nowadays we are catching far more positive cases but the same miniscule number end up in ICU.

Either way we don't have to panic until ICU or hospitalisations start to rise. There's no point introducing a lockdown until the number in ICU reach at least 50, because that would give us a couple of weeks to get things under control with a lockdown.

combat14

seems like more and more doctors catching covid now

https://m.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/beaumont-hospital-closes-down-three-wards-over-covid-outbreaks-39506611.html

DangerScouse

froog wrote: »

another lockdown at this point is simply not possible. rightly or wrongly, there would be massive protests and mass non compliance.

Of course it would be possible but we have neither the government or populace to maintain the discipline required.

My prediction is some form of lockdown by mid October as numbers of cases and dead begin to sky rocket and as you say massive non compliance by the nations citizens will be like throwing fuel on the fire.

Billythekid19

combat14 wrote: »

seems like more and more doctors catching covid now

https://m.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/beaumont-hospital-closes-down-three-wards-over-covid-outbreaks-39506611.html

The reason they are catching so many cases in Beaumont is because every single patient admitted is being tested. This is not the case in most other hospitals so there are of course many asymptomatic in other hospitals but not detected.

daheff

Billythekid19 wrote: »

The reason they are catching so many cases in Beaumont is because every single patient admitted is being tested. This is not the case in most other hospitals so there are of course many asymptomatic in other hospitals but not detected.

That's not just in Beaumont though. Other hospitals are requiring testing for patients (Big Phil anyone?).

So why more in Beaumont? Anything to do with the catchment area including Skerries after that ',prank'

bucketybuck

DangerScouse wrote: »

Of course it would be possible but we have neither the government or populace to maintain the discipline required.

My prediction is some form of lockdown by mid October as numbers of cases and dead begin to sky rocket

The number of cases have been steadily rising but the death rate remains steadily at zero, and I think it is becoming very clear why that is.

How anybody thinks another lockdown is needed is very strange to me.

100/200/300 cases a day is the new normal IMO, if folk follow social distancing guidelines and wear masks etc we should be able to keep a lid on it.

Opening pubs would be a joke IMO, loads of folk indoors not wearing masks for hours on end and under the influence .......... too hard to control IMO. Many folk won't go near pubs when/if they open anyway but there's plenty that will.

bucketybuck

Augeo wrote: »

Opening pubs would be a joke IMO, loads of folk indoors not wearing masks for hours on end and under the influence .......... too hard to control IMO. Many folk won't go near pubs when/if they open anyway but there's plenty that will.

They may well be hard to control, but I bet they don't spike the death rate.

So which is it all about, what is more important, the control or the death rate...

robbiezero

Augeo wrote: »

100/200/300 cases a day is the new normal IMO, if folk follow social distancing guidelines and wear masks etc we should be able to keep a lid on it.

Opening pubs would be a joke IMO, loads of folk indoors not wearing masks for hours on end and under the influence .......... too hard to control IMO. Many folk won't go near pubs when/if they open anyway but there's plenty that will.

This is happening already in most (I'd imagine) of the open "Foodie" pubs now. At least I have yet to be in one where it isn't happening.

bucketybuck

bucketybuck wrote: »

They may well be hard to control, but I bet they don't spike the death rate.

So which is it all about, what is more important, the control or the death rate...

The number of cases and the number of deaths are linked ............ in recent weeks more folk are being hospitalised as there are more cases. I fear the death rate going forward will actually rise. The death rate so low now is as a result of the cases being so low 2 months ago.

If pubs open there'll be more cases and the lads in their late 40s, 50s etc who usually do nothing but go to the pub all week will be at greater risk of catching covid then they are know. Quite reasonable to expect the death rate to rise. The folk who used to hang around pubs day after day generally aren't in pristine health.

robbiezero wrote: »

This is happening already in most (I'd imagine) of the open "Foodie" pubs now. At least I have yet to be in one where it isn't happening.

Yes, I think lots of the 5/6/7/8 pints a night brigade aren't in the "foodie" pubs though.
I've only frequented restaurants recently, and not too many of them either. I haven't gone near any of the pubs that are now open who didn't serve food prior to March. Most of those places are as you say not at all attempting to control what's going on. Open all the pubs and the lack of control shall skyrocket.

Oranage2

bucketybuck wrote: »

The number of cases have been steadily rising but the death rate remains steadily at zero, and I think it is becoming very clear why that is.

How anybody thinks another lockdown is needed is very strange to me.

There's something dodgy happening with deaths being reported in my opinion.

We've no deaths at all, countries with less cases than us are having deaths. I reckon families are asking doctors to write something else on the death cert.

Augeo

Augeo wrote: »

The number of cases and the number of deaths are linked ............ in recent weeks more folk are being hospitalised as there are more cases. I fear the death rate going forward will actually rise. The death rate so low now is as a result of the cases being so low 2 months ago.

We had our first recorded case in March and deaths were at their highest in April.

It didn't seem to take so long back then.

Now apparently it takes 6 weeks for hospitalizations to start rising a bit. Maybe a few more weeks for ICU to rise? And maybe a few more for deaths?

bucketybuck

Augeo wrote: »

The number of cases and the number of deaths are linked ............ in recent weeks more folk are being hospitalised as there are more cases. I fear the death rate going forward will actually rise. The death rate so low now is as a result of the cases being so low 2 months ago.

No, hospitalisations are also remaining consistently low. Are some people going to hospital with Covid 19, yes, but the numbers are almost negligible, its around 55 people total over the last 14 days.

It would be like saying the death rate will rise because 1 person died. It would be technically true, but going from zero to one is not really significant to the bigger picture.

Oranage2

Oranage2 wrote: »

There's something dodgy happening with deaths being reported in my opinion.

We've no deaths at all, countries with less cases than us are having deaths. I reckon families are asking doctors to write something else on the death cert.

We got the nursing homes under control. Thats all that was really needed.

Covid is not that serious for anyone else.

I don't think you get to choose what is written on a death cert.

Oranage2

[Deleted User] wrote: »

We got the nursing homes under control. Thats all that was really needed.

Covid is not that serious for anyone else.

I don't think you get to choose what is written on a death cert.

Extemely dangerous attitude, you'll probably get someone killed sprouting that disinformation.

Graces7

Billythekid19 wrote: »

The reason they are catching so many cases in Beaumont is because every single patient admitted is being tested. This is not the case in most other hospitals so there are of course many asymptomatic in other hospitals but not detected.

Every hospital patient in Castlebar Co Mayo is tested. And our covid count is very low indeed and hardly growing.

Oranage2

Oranage2 wrote: »

Extemely dangerous attitude, you'll probably get someone killed sprouting that disinformation.

If you want to believe that we are deliberately leaving Covid off death certs for some strange reason, by all means go ahead.

The death rate is so low because people are not dying.

bucketybuck

bucketybuck wrote: »

No, hospitalisations are also remaining consistently low. Are some people going to hospital with Covid 19, yes, but the numbers are almost negligible, its around 55 people total over the last 14 days.

...........

For July there was under 20 in hospital with Covid 19 every day ...... from mid Aug to now it's risen from 20 to 55.

Three times the number currently in hospital now compared to 3 weeks ago ........ it's the orange line in this chart...... you might notice it's rising. It doesn't look as reassuring as consistently low sounds

Squeeonline

Deleted User wrote: »

We got the nursing homes under control. Thats all that was really needed.

Covid is not that serious for anyone else.

I don't think you get to choose what is written on a death cert.

I have a friend who caught Corona back in March. She wasn't in the hospital for long but is still dealing with the side-effects. Chronic fatigue etc.

My opinion on the severity of the disease changed drastically when I read the WHOs definition of mild symptoms are those that do not require hospitalisation.