Will there be another lockdown?

Wibbs · 24-11-2021 11:42am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118214845#Comment_118214845

Also trivialising it to be the "least deadly in history" doesn't make it any better in fact that position and attitude is why we are where we are - it has been underestimated at every strategic turn so I've little choice but to lump you in with the idiots on social media spreading misinformation and scaremongering with each one of their replies on this one Wibbs

It's not a trivialisation, it's merely a fact. Name just one pandemic in world history where the death rate was 0.5 to 1%. Name one where those under 50 were remarkably unlikely to die. Name one where children were pretty much entirely unaffected. Name one where the average fatality age was within months of the average longevity. I'll save you the trouble, you can't. I also pointed out that this is a tragedy for those did and are dying. That's not up for debate in my part.

I am fully behind social distancing, masks and other precautions and have been from the start and continue to keep to those standards today. Ditto for vaccines and protecting the vulnerable. And yes I agree 100% with you that the Irish are among the least likely to directly rebel against authority. We've proven that in the past, as you note with rule from London and then swapped them out for rule from Rome, while laying the blame on both for our ills in the aftermath of both. When we do "rebel" it's more of the tacit snub behind the facade. Add in pandemic fatigue to that. I've certainly seen it in different work environments over the last few months. Some are keeping to the guidelines, but some are really not. I just can't see another lockdown, if it comes, having the same compliance as the first one. We shall see.

the kelt · 24-11-2021 11:49am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118214934#Comment_118214934

Yep its a valid point.

We go into lockdown and the message across Europe is "look at Ireland and their huge vaccination numbers, whats the point?"

The alternative is we go in to lockdown and emphasis rightly goes on to our p1ss poor health service with leaders across europe pointing out its nothing to do with vaccines just a p1ss poor health service, but look at the amount of money they spend, hold on a minute didnt we bail these guys out not so long ago etc.

Its all about optics for the government now and lockdown has the worst possible optics for this government.

And trust me, thats literally all they are worried about.

PommieBast · 24-11-2021 11:58am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118214988#Comment_118214988

I doubt FF/FG will actually admit that lockdowns are due to structural issues with the HSE. If they did the implication is lockdowns becoming an annual event.

El_Duderino 09 · 24-11-2021 12:00pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118214934#Comment_118214934

I don't think I've misrepresented your point. I think you're suggesting we should make domestic policy based primarily on how it will look to other countries instead of being based primarily on the domestic situation. Is that your point?

You say we should show them that we can get on with it but if our ICU beds are under pressure, then how will that look to other countries?

I think the optics to other countries should be way down the list of considerations, if its a serious consideration at all. How seriously should optics be in your opinion. Should optics take precedence over the ICU capacity?

El_Duderino 09 · 24-11-2021 12:07pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118214988#Comment_118214988

Its not that valid. The anti-covid vaccination people will see it that way. But they're going to complain whatever happens. They'll use the facts when the facts suit them, but they don't back down when the facts don't wait them. They're making it up ad they go along and not locking down won't neutralise them. If I was making policy for the anti-vax then I might argue that not locking down will make some of them say "shur, we didn't even need restrictions this year, covid's over no need for me to get a vaccination like all the sheeple'.

You might be right and there might be some effect of needing to lock down, but I think it's trivial compared to the need to govern based on the demostic situation at the time.

But I wouldn't advocate making policy for the nation to placate the anti-vaxers in Austria or wherever else.

DarkJager21 · 24-11-2021 12:10pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118215045#Comment_118215045

In simple terms what I am saying is the most they can look at is capacity restrictions or closing time restrictions, the likes of a 2020 lockdown with movement restrictions etc would be a crystal clear sign of defeat, and the echo around other countries would be "what's the point in getting vaccinated if that's the ultimate outcome anyway?". The government built this up, they banged the drum to other countries saying "look at our vaccination rate" and they can't just throw the hands up now and U-turn. Our biggest issue this winter is not covid, it's our health service and the complete shambles it is that 150 ICU beds out of a pop of 5 million is causing hysteria.

El_Duderino 09 · 24-11-2021 12:16pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118215090#Comment_118215090

OK I don't think there are only 150 ICU beds, but leave that aside and agree we would both prefer if there were more ICU beds.

How much time do you think anti vaccination people in Austria spend following Irish politicians and the situation in Ireland? When's the last time you googles an Austrian politician to see what they have to say? I can tell you I haven't googled an Austrian politician's opinion on covid so far in thr pandemic.

This focus on optics is not sensible and, if I'm being honest, I think you're wishful thinking rather than saying what you think will happen.

What donyou think will actually happen?

DarkJager21 · 24-11-2021 12:29pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118215122#Comment_118215122

Here's what I think will happen:

Indoor capacity/closing time restrictions/vaccination certs extended to other businesses - Most likely options if they are going to do anything

5km restrictions - Nope, a legal minefield now but again could be based on vaccination status/cert as a plan B.

Full scale lockdown, everything closed, stay at home etc - Not a chance in hell, they know themselves that compliance for this would essentially be zero especially with Christmas coming up.

People really do need to accept that we are probably going to see some deaths this winter given the state of the health service, but we simply cannot shut the whole country down again to save it. They would want to exhaust all options first including private hospital capacity to even think of coming to the country with ideas of a lockdown again.

El_Duderino 09 · 24-11-2021 12:39pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118215190#Comment_118215190

Fair enough. I think they will keep things as normal as possible for Christmas and assess the situation after Christmas. I wouldn't be surprised if some package of restrictions is announced before Christmas to take effect on the 27 or similar.

But I really think (and what I was asking you about) is that they will base the restrictions on the domestic situation. I doubt they'll even consider the international optics or how anti vaccination people in other countries tries will react if we introduce restrictions. It would be crazy to do so, in my opinion.

iLikeWaffles · 24-11-2021 1:01pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118214940#Comment_118214940

How can it be a fact, History hasn't yet played out in full or do you have some information we all don't have. Any chance you have Tonight's or Saturday's lotto numbers also, perhaps all draws. Remember when Trump compared it to swine flu. How is that statement any different, congratulations on stepping it up to be as idiotic, it is actually a hard thing to do.

The vast majority of those who died from it are around the average age of longevity anyway and the vast majority have serious underlying condition

Basically what you are saying is we should be all living our lives the way we had been pre 2019 with no regard for elderly, vulnerable or anyone with an underlying condition - because they're going to die anyway right, ridiculous statement. You're completely coming across as trivialising it and have absolutely no regard or respect for anyone who has died and will die from it. There was no initial panic of corpses lining the streets either because fairly stringent measures were put in place from the start and people were following them for the most part as the knowledge in how to behave or how bad it can be was just not there. There really is no difference now; foresight is still lacking yet compromises are being put in place where they're trying to balance on a tightrope on one leg while juggling. The strategic "the easing of restrictions" soundbite lead to people being complacent along with the cockiness, lack of communicating well and attitude from leadership about where they are at and where we are at.

I've certainly seen it in different work environments over the last few months. Some are keeping to the guidelines, but some are really not. I just can't see another lockdown, if it comes, having the same compliance as the first one. We shall see.

This has always been the case even when there was restrictions in place, the vast majority of people just lack education, however it is extremely easy to educate them in adequate behaviour for the pandemic we are in and still will be in for the foreseeable future - back to basics. Even were the end is actually in sight the safe thing to do would be to continue doing what actually does work to help keep what limited resources and capacities hospitals do have to save lives at a manageable level. Which is wearing masks, social distancing and keeping hands and surfaces sanitised because that is the first protection with any infection or potential infection. The bottom line is we shall see when a trauma patient dies because of a lack capacity in a hospital, or the wrong medication is administered to someone because of the pressure put upon hospital staff or were someone who really needs a long overdue major surgery doesn't get it because there is an administration error - then there will be potential for corpses to be anywhere but a hospital. We really shouldn't be going down that road when it can be avoided however that is close to where we are at!

DarkJager21 · 24-11-2021 1:23pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118215243#Comment_118215243

They can't ignore the bigger picture here, it's not simply about the domestic situation in Ireland at this stage. Other countries are looking around them (even if you don't) at what increased vaccinations means for living with covid - a bit of optimism that if you get to a certain level life can be somewhat normal. We've even had numerous people here comparing ourselves to Sweden/UK etc looking at what is life like there with X amount vaccinated etc.

If a country with a 90%+ vaccination rate puts all of its people back in to lockdown, what does that say about the vaccines - how does that appear to the rest of the EU? Like it or not there is a bit of a political game and optics to play here, particularly given the way other countries are approaching getting jabs in to arms and the fact we have banging the drums about how much of a success the vaccination program has been. A lockdown would be a spectacular admission of defeat to the virus and will send the message that regardless of vaccines and how many people get them, you can be shafted back in to restrictions at the drop of a hat.

El_Duderino 09 · 24-11-2021 1:49pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118215469#Comment_118215469

Well, I haven't suggested they're likely to do a lockdown, but I think restrictions fter Christmas are very likely if they're necessary.

I think you're way overplaying the importance of both Ireland and the responsibility our leaders have to other countries tries. If MM was being paid to help manage the rest of the world then he might shaft Ireland to help the optics look better for the rest of the world. But the reality is that he's only working for Ireland.

Do you think the UN or WHO or other world leaders will lean on him to ensure he doesn't reimpose restrictions? I think that the optics you're talking about is so unlikely to be a serious consideration and I can't figure out why you think it should be the deciding factor in how Ireland handles the domestic situation.

Do you honestly think the Government will decide demostic policy based primarily (or even heavily) on the optics abroad?

hynesie08 · 24-11-2021 1:51pm

https://twitter.com/LVADublinPubs/status/1463430706068176897?s=20

Can't believe the vintner's didn't tell them.......

PTH2009 · 24-11-2021 1:59pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118215628#Comment_118215628

Pity that poor guy who owns runs the bar in the golf course who was told to cancel his stock order got screwed

hynesie08 · 24-11-2021 2:00pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118215685#Comment_118215685

Sounds like he shouldn't be running a business TBH.

Or he's made up.

24-11-2021 2:03pm

People don't seem to get it... The first lockdown only "worked" very temporarily because we closed literally everything and borrowed 40 billion to pay for it. And we had amazing compliance from the public.

It's unaffordable and unsustainable to continue with such lockdowns.

Maybe we can afford 1 or even 2 half lockdowns again but even that can't go on much longer.

Wibbs · 24-11-2021 2:12pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118215360#Comment_118215360

How can it be a fact, History hasn't yet played out in full or do you have some information we all don't have. Any chance you have Tonight's or Saturday's lotto numbers also, perhaps all draws. Remember when Trump compared it to swine flu. How is that statement any different

Because it is based on facts gleaned over the past two years. No crystal ball required nor references to the orange muppet, merely basic observation of the actual data from reliable sources since this pandemic started. And that held true even when we didn't have the vaccines or better pallative treatments that we have now. Since then the serious illness and death rates have further dropped considerably among the vaccinated and vulnerable groups(IIRC I was reading recently that the age group more represented now in Irish hospitals are those in their 50's and unvaccinated) even though society has opened up considerably since the early days of this. Now another more deadly variant could arise, but it could also go the other way and mutate itself to a less deadly form. That's been the case with many if not most pandemics of the past. They burn themselves out either through mutation to a less nasty form or by herd immunity and no hosts to reproduce in. It's only a question of when and that is up in the air. With better more longer lasting vaccines and other treatments in the pipeline that end point is closer than ever.

congratulations on stepping it up to be as idiotic, it is actually a hard thing to do.

I dunno, it seems to come naturally to some.

Basically what you are saying is we should be all living our lives the way we had been pre 2019 with no regard for elderly, vulnerable or anyone with an underlying condition - because they're going to die anyway right, ridiculous statement

Where's that "So what you're saying is" meme from a few years ago when you need it because this fits it to a tee. Yep, you're right it is a ridiculous statement, but one I didn't make. It seems in your ire to reply you missed this bit: I also pointed out that this is a tragedy for those who did and are dying referencing and repeating my position on the personal tragedies involved. At no point have I claimed this is not a tragic time for many people and their families, but keep on believing what you will. There are facts and there are emotions. Unlike Karens and Kens on Arsebook I prefer to keep them separate as they tend to contaminate one another.

We really shouldn't be going down that road when it can be avoided however that is close to where we are at!

Again where did I disagree? You seem to be reading a different post, even though you quoted it: I am fully behind social distancing, masks and other precautions and have been from the start and continue to keep to those standards today. Ditto for vaccines and protecting the vulnerable.

lolokeogh · 24-11-2021 2:14pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118214845#Comment_118214845

Excellent post.i agree 100 percent

iLikeWaffles · 24-11-2021 5:40pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118215785#Comment_118215785

I think you're trying to back track there now to be fair. What you said was:

The vast majority of those who died from it are around the average age of longevity anyway

anyway being the language used out of carelessness here, adding the words "while tragic" later on is the equivalent of saying "I'm sorry, but..."

You are comparing it to something that has not played out in full. Regardless of facts we know the whole problem with this is the stuff we don't know, those facts have yet to come to be and it can go either way, they are potential future facts and the problem with that is neither scenario is really known. It is worst case at this stage and it should be thought of cynically so it has the best chance to be avoided. Facts are what happened not what will happen. Are we at 0 cases, no. Is Covid still rampant, yes. Can it die out and or get worse, that is up to everyone in Ireland and around the world and namely on the leaders to convey that to the societies they are responsible to guide.

I'm not reading a different post what I'm reading is people are tired of lockdowns therefor it is not going to have the same effect as the first lockdown, restrictive measures were working it was only when we started opening up that things spiralled. It is besides your point but it is mainly down to how the message has been perceived and how it has been conveyed by the so called leaders of this country so far. Which is: the populous that is unvaccinated is the enemy. When in fact Covid is the enemy, among other things as the consequence. Which can / could have been but still can be avoided through simple education and succinct communication from Government. Some of the unrest happening around Europe is because of lockdowns on the part of society that choose not to be vaccinated, strategically this is is a war of attrition and the Government decided to attack it with political segregation of unvaccinated people when their own facts say that 50% of ICU beds are Covid patients that are unvaccinated that still leaves 50% that are not nor have those facts been soundbited as to what the make up of that 50% is. And the fact of that matter is that there is very little ICU beds anyway and that is also down to the Governments incompetence. So the message as a whole has 2 parts those that are unvaccinated are not safe, but those that are have not been told otherwise in any meaningful way* and that is partly because being unvaccinated has had the emphasis. Therefor logically you must be safe if you are vaccinated so you can go about things as normal which could lead to overcrowding which is one of the worst case scenarios.

*Safer, yes as in Safe: could be / could not be which is a factor of complacency, and a vicious circle.

Wibbs · 24-11-2021 7:18pm

You are comparing it to something that has not played out in full. Regardless of facts we know the whole problem with this is the stuff we don't know, those facts have yet to come to be and it can go either way, they are potential future facts and the problem with that is neither scenario is really known.

"Regardless of facts". Yeah, I'm seeing where this is going...

It is worst case at this stage and it should be thought of cynically so it has the best chance to be avoided.

Worst case at this stage? Are you serious? Let's recap shall we? Pox emergies from China. China keeps it hush hush, cos China. It finally breaks ground and the world naturally starts to worry(though outside of East Asia takes its sweet time to get off its arse about it). Cue sharing wild rumours of millions dropping like flies in China, people here reckoning tens of thousands of deaths and mass panic buying of bogroll by dribbling morons. Then we watched Italy and quite naturally got very concerned(though our own expert told us visting elderly rellies in homes was A OK. Moron). Lockdowns kicked off, but ICU's started to fill up. Not a shock given our lack of capacity which I agree 100% with you is criminal for a developed modern society. Anyway we all got on board with "flattening the curve"(that aged well) and a worldwide callout for more ventilators(ditto) and some countries were building field hospitals for the overun that never came. Lockdowns and other measures reduced transmissions and deaths. The first few months were "worst case" and thank christ the actual worst case we imagined didn't emerge. And that was clear enough if you looked behind the panic as a few did, including in this very forum. The cruise ships were the first clue. A largely middle aged to elderly demographic with the various health conditions of those demographics in an enclosed environment with crew of younger ages. And yet the fatality rate was around 2% on all of them. Bloody tragic for them and theirs but not quite the armageddon the panicked on social media were thinking.

But forget about all that.

Early last year we were facing a virus and panic about the virus because it was all new, with treatments for the seriously ill that seemed to be 50/50 as far as results went and we had no vaccines and we were heavily restricted in movements and all but a few basic need shops were closed.

Today pretty much everything is open, we have far fewer restrictions, the majority of our population is vaccinated and more vaccines are coming down the road and soon and treatments have improved and while numbers are going up in our hospitals they're still within the bounds of what we can deal with, for the moment at least.

So how in god's name can we be at worst case at this stage? Serious question.

Facts are what happened not what will happen.

You do understand that facts inform current and even future realities. EG, very early on in China it was noted that kids under 10 almost never suffered from serious illness and a lot of the time were asymptomatic(which was a major positive with this pox and unusual with it as kids are normally among the worst affected by pandemics). This fact was reflected worldwide. It remains a fact. So unless the virus radically mutates and changes so kids under 10 are affected it would be quite reasonable to assume after nearly two years of clear data that this is not going to change as a fact in the future.

saabsaab · 24-11-2021 8:10pm

After a huge surge Japan seems to be coming out of it now. Usual bell curve applies may be the same here.

Widescreen · 24-11-2021 8:21pm

Listening to radio feature earlier talking to an Eastern European chemist in Dublin about why that cohort(East European migrants) are vaccine sceptics. Very interesting and the powers that be here would do well to make more effort to engage and convince them to take it.

Anyway she said that there is only 44% of vaccine uptake in that cohort and if you separate 18-24 year olds it is down to 36%

They are a big factor in why we are still suffering all this covid crap and will continue to do so unless they all get jabbed.

Government need to get tough on the vaccine and make it mandatory as soon as it has been approved for 5 year olds upwards and also then make it a condition that anyone moving to Ireland must be vaccinated before they come in.

Otherwise folks we will be wasting a lot of our lives with this.

El_Duderino 09 · 24-11-2021 8:25pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118217732#Comment_118217732

Ha. If you phrase the pro vaccine argument in an anti-immigrant sentiment, half the right wing anti-vax people won't know what to do.

saabsaab · 24-11-2021 8:31pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118217732#Comment_118217732

To travel here it should be mandatory to have the vaccinations.

Mr. Karate · 24-11-2021 9:28pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118217754#Comment_118217754

The irony is that he would be one of the first ones to call anti-immigrants fascists.

Wibbs · 24-11-2021 9:47pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118217732#Comment_118217732

It's quite amazing to me, though not surprising, how a little bit of fear can get people to mindlessly call for policies that will undermine social trust, a trust that is already undermined because of contradictory "advice" from government from early on. While mandatory vaccinations have been in play in the past it has almost entirely been under authoritarian states. One doesn't have to be an "anti vaxxer" to be extremely wary of extending the powers of government(and employers) over individual liberty and bodily autonomy and where that could lead. I prefer the carrot to the stick, because if you wield a stick don't be too surprised if others fight back with them.