Will there be another lockdown?

MontgomeryClift

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118244804#Comment_118244804

What if it's not stupidity?

El_Duderino 09

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118246093#Comment_118246093

If locking down averts a crisis? Then the anti-lockdown people will say "god almighty, i was wrong about that and I' should give credit to the Government for having the foresight to be proactive".

Lol no, they'll just pretend that there was no need for a lockdown because there was no crisis. People almost never give governments credit for proactively averting a crisis. Like the poster above who looked at the death numbers AFTER restrictions and used that as an argument or not needing any restrictions.

Only time will tell if restrictions are needed or not. The research is ongoing to understand Omicron. I'm bound to only report what we actually know so I'm always at a disadvantage to a poster who makes up facts as they go along. I can't counter a made up the claim that "this variant is here for quite some time".

Gusser09

We can't go into lockdown twice or three times a year. It's not practical or livable. By calling for lockdown or more draconian measures to be introduced in a country with a vaccine update of 93% we are just admitting that the vaccines don't work.

El_Duderino 09

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118246241#Comment_118246241

Depends on what you mean by "work". We know they reduce transmission and we know that effect wanes after about 3 months, we know they reduce the severity of illness, we know it reduces chances of hospitalisation and death. But apart from that, they don't work at all.

Gusser09

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118246264#Comment_118246264

We were told they were the solution to lockdowns and restrictions. They haven't been. So they didn't work. That is what I meant.

El_Duderino 09

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118246285#Comment_118246285

I remember them being discussed as our best shot at solving restrictions and lockdowns. I also remember there always being a caveat that new variants could change things. Do you remember the possibility of variants being discussed?

Gusser09

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118246310#Comment_118246310

No. Not to the extent that we would still be talking about lockdowns. The vaccines are supposedly effective on Delta and Omicron though so happy days. What's the excuse now for further restrictions?

El_Duderino 09

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118246400#Comment_118246400

You weren't paying attention if you don't remember the discussions abott how a new variant would change the equation. But you also wernt listening if you thought anyone reliable was ever guaranteeing there would be no further restrictions or even a lockdown.

The vaccines are effective against Alfa, Delta and Omicron. They're effective to various degrees (though Omicron is still being investigated to get a more accurate estimate of effectiveness). Will thst be enough to ensure we don't need restrictions or even a lockdown? We'll we already have restrictions so the Ansty that is no. And we'll juts have to wait and see if we can avoid lockdown again.

What do you think "effective" means when you used it in the post above?

Lollipop95

I don’t understand the governments being so panicked about this new variant when there’s mild symptoms being reported in the majority of cases - I can only put it down to them knowing more than what’s public knowledge atm.

El_Duderino 09

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118246651#Comment_118246651

Just precaution. They couldn't possibly know yet. The hospitalisation, ICU admissions and deaths wouldn't happen for another few weeks. So they're just being cautious.

There's no need for a conspiracy theory around it. Why would they have more information and impose restrictions without releasing the information to justify the restrictions?

tigger123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118246701#Comment_118246701

I agree with all you said; everyone with any authority is saying that we've at least a few weeks to go until we understand this variant.

However (!), having said that, the reaction around the world, from Governments, the media, and some scientists seems a little overblown, and the reaction doesn't chime with what we know so far.

So either, people are losing their sh*t unnecessarily (which is very possible), or there's a little more to worry about then we can decipher so far. It all feels a little out of sync.

patnor1011

It was just reported that Dutch detected omicron about 11 days before SA informed about it. That means it is around for at least a month and there are no serious increases in deaths or bad cases. Actually it is reported that majority of cases do not even develop symptoms.

That is why I called this current hype and talk about lockdowns as competition in stupidity.

Data are coming in but reactions of politicians and media personalities (majority of them simply do not have education or experience to be able to deal with this situation) are pretty ridiculous.

alentejo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118247548#Comment_118247548

To add to this. Dutch Covid figures have stabilized over the past 7 days

El_Duderino 09

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118247277#Comment_118247277

Is it out of sync with what we know? If they let it grow unabated, which we're pretty much doing right now, and find out it's more transmissible, less effected by the vaccine and at least equally sickening, then were in for a lockdown. If they take precautions early (which we havent decided to do yet) then they will be in a better position to maintain lighter restrictions instead of something approaching lockdown restrictions after Christmas.

If it turns out to be less harmful then we can loosen or lift restrictions. But we just need to wait and see what the science says about how harmful the new variant is.

tigger123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118248251#Comment_118248251

Yep, that makes sense alright.

I was listening to the David McWilliams podcast yesterday (which can be a little hit and miss) and he made a really interesting point. He said that prevailing pessimism right now regarding Omicron is due to the fact that we all thought we were winding down with the pandemic, and then we're suddenly pulled back into it with the arrival of Omicron. Hence the wailing and gnashing of teeth.

NeedMoreGears

McWilliams has captured my feelings about things. I had hoped we were getting towards the end-game here. Now we seem to be going backwards and I'm just getting tired of it.

I'm luckier than many in that the current restrictions don't hugely affect me (grown up kids, still in work, knees too knackered for night clubs...) so I will stick with it. I'm more concerned for my kids, who have seen a much greater impact on their lives than I have.

El_Duderino 09

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118249908#Comment_118249908

Yeah that's fair enough. It's reasonable to be frustrated. There's no point being cross with the government for reacting to the new variant by imposing restrictions now (which they have to really done yet anyway). Being cross with the virus isn't satisfying but being cross with the government isn't sensible. They didn't invent covid, they're just reacting to it like everyone else.

With a bit of luck, Omicron will be found to be less harmful overall and we can relax.

El_Duderino 09

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118249628#Comment_118249628

Yeah that's surely true. I can't get over the number of people who say they remember that the vaccine meant guaranteed end of restrictions.

I always remember hearing experts say that they certainly hoped that the vaccines would solve the whole problem but I also remember them saying everything was subject to things like the degree to which the vaccine could prevent transmission, and prevent the vaccinated getting sick AND deal with new variants.

We now know it does a good job of all those things but nowhere near 100%. I can't help wondering if the people who remember being told the vaccine guaranteed the end of restrictions were getting their info from Facebook or if they chose not to remember the parts they didn't want to hear. The info was out there for those who wanted to know the unvarnished facts. That much is true

tigger123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118249908#Comment_118249908

I have young kids who either are completely oblivious to it all, or who have a vague sense that not everything is open all the time. It's not having any effect on them at all, and will just be a story they hear as they get older. Very thankful for that.

tigger123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118250050#Comment_118250050

The info was out here, but I think you need to forgive people a little for looking forward to the end of all this.

francogarbanzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118250050#Comment_118250050

Maybe headlines like this had something to do with it?:

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/0223/1198716-living-with-covid/

Or this?:

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/health/mass-vaccination-now-our-only-way-out-of-lockdowns-40125773.html

"Launching the plan, called ‘Covid-19 Resilience and Recovery 2021 – The Path Ahead’, Mr Martin said the “end is truly in sight” but added that the vaccine programme needed to be accelerated before the country could be reopened.

“The vaccination programme will completely change the landscape and transform the options available to us as a society for reopening and renewing our country,” he said.

Speaking at the same event, deputy chief medical officer Ronan Glynn said that the vaccine is “our most powerful tool” in battling the virus, and added: “There are brighter days ahead.”

Yea man, I wonder why. Real head-scratcher! 🤔

FrankC21

Hi,

I need an advice, we're booked for budapest next week will be flying out with our 1 year old and will stay there for a week to have a holiday just wondering if it's still worth it to continue or just cancel, with this new restrictions going on? Can't decided?

yourdeadwright

We will lockdown for January or maybe after Christmas day and maybe the whole of Feb,

Its been obvious since October this will happen,

They will let people enjoy Christmas then lock everyone up when trade in pubs and restaurants is at its lowest anyway ,

El_Duderino 09

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118250295#Comment_118250295

Sure. I wasn't referring to government statements. Depends on how much attention you paid to that speech but from the quotes in the article he never said there wouldn't be need for restrictions in the future, did he? He said there was a way out of "this". What did he mean by "this". Was he referring to the current level 5 restrictions at the time of the speech? He doesn't say explicitly.

I don't know about you but I don't take everything governments say as gospel. I was regerring to actual experts in intrrviewsnof various kinds.

As a matter of interest, do you uncritically believe everything a politician says? Or did you make a special exception in this case because it was something you wanted to believe? (If you believed it)

If you don't answer any of the questions above, just quote then part of that article where he says there will be no need for restrictions again after the vaccine is rolled out. Thanks.

PommieBast

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118250016#Comment_118250016

In Ireland "lockdown" meant large sections of the civil service shutting down completely rather than keeping things ticking over at reduced capacity. That is one thing the government has to take the blame for.

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118250372#Comment_118250372

Sure why waste all that lovely PUP dosh on them then... is what I would be saying in Paschal's shoes.

El_Duderino 09

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118251549#Comment_118251549

There are plenty of things the government has to take the blame for. But earnestly reacting to the new variant is prudent and not worthy of criticism. Being cross that there's a new variant is fair. Pointing that frustration at the government is a bit silly as they didn't cause it

snor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118250050#Comment_118250050

it was never hoped or thought the vaccines would Solve everything. The only disease vaccines have eradicated totally is smallpox - and that was slow progress - fist vaccine introduced in 1798 and doses finally eradicated in 1980.

vaccines are merely one of the tools that plays a role in controlling this virus - but the most important tool in the fight is still human behaviour.

El_Duderino 09

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118252351#Comment_118252351

Yeah the vaccine is certainly the best shot (pun intended) to solve the problem. We also have things like distancing and restrictions but we want to use those as little as possible and not have to use them in the longer term. We have made huge progress with the vaccine in the last 20 months. So hopefully we can get back to normal enough life next year. As you point out from previous examples, that would be phenomenal (and maybe unrealistic) progress.

You'd be surprised at the number of posters who will repeatedly say they remember being told the vaccine would solve the whole problem and there would never be need for restrictions again.

questionmark?

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118250372#Comment_118250372

No money to do so.

Not much public buy in for it to be effective.

They would have done it already if they could have.

Last 7 days or so shows cases as having peaked and swab positive rate coming down all be it slowly. Boosters rolling out etc etc..

It was a bump in the road caused by incompetence in not having sufficient ICU beds, how schools were managed, not using Antigen testing etc etc...

.