Lockdown for Kildare (Aug 8th-31st)

_Kaiser_

fly_agaric wrote: »

May make sense to wear them if you are out and about in shops or on public transport etc + you are coming down with cold or flu.
Think that was what people who had the 'mask' habit in some Asian countries were doing before all this kicked off (as well as wearing them due to pollution).
I always thought it was mad/over the top myself (and seemed strange to see Asians living here doing it sometimes), but seems like it might be quite sensible in hindsight. :pac:

I'm sure there's probably something about weakening one's immune system in he longer term by trying to shield yourself from common ailments.

And I might add that, Asia aside, we've never seen fit to even suggest such a measure before now. Covid is an outlier. A once in a generation event. It'll be beaten in the end (what with every suitably qualified lab in the world working on it).

But what we absolutely can't do is let it make us all fearful of things that didn't, still don't and will not, cause any problems to the overwhelming majority when this is all over.

_Kaiser_

John O.Groats wrote: »

What you claim is "astounding" I believe is common sense. Anything that helps to reduce the spread of any transmissible illness is a good thing. No doubt you will claim there is no evidence for this or that it is a form of "control". Anyway I leave you to your "beliefs".

Your condescending tone aside (again proving my earlier point), I honestly think you need to take a step back away from the media and analysis of this virus.

If you honestly believe that we now need to protect ourselves from such things as the common cold, I think you're too close to it all.

And, as above, there's an argument that in doing so you would weaken people's immune systems and in fact make us MORE susceptible the to the things you're trying to prevent.

fly_agaric

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

I'm sure there's probably something about weakening one's immune system in he longer term by trying to shield yourself from common ailments.

No, I've never lived in Asia but from what I've read...people would wear them mainly so as not to spread their own 'germs' about. Basically reason they are being advised now. Or to filter out pollution/particles etc in cities, many of which have much worse air quality than Europe.

On something from your other posts:

_Kaiser_ wrote:

Where the gaps lie are around ideology. Some people need the comfort of expert opinions and analysis, and to have someone tell them what needs to be done.

It is not about "comfort" in this instance (and I hope we can avoid dragging political ideology into this question).

In your own (non-expert?) opinion you know better, more approriate numbers to use to decide the response, what public health measures are/are not appropriate and would have a better plan if you were in charge here basically.

However, IMO they are still the experts (despite scare quotes you used) so it is sensible to follow what they recommend rather than your own untested policy.

The government is mostly doing that as far as I can see.

You haven't really provided any evidence that the government is playing some sort of political games about the virus response as you claim, e.g. increasing restrictions in 3 counties to justify the "massive overreaction and damage wrought before the real economic consequences kick in with the Budget".

Edit: It seems to be an extremely cynical and negative view to take on the government.

Patser

200 cases today, 81 in Kildare.......bugger.

Given that covid shows up 7-12 days after contraction, this suggests this is the 2nd batch from last weeks clusters. If this keeps up over weekend, hard to see lockdown being lifted. Laois up a bit too.


And this was my final worry about going away, imagine sitting in a pub/cafe this weekend - knowing you're from Kildare, and seeing numbers like that pop up on news, and how locals and others from nonLOK counties would react.

Tips had an outbreak in mushroom factory so might also be nervous. Widespread numbers like that suggest national lockdown could be on way

Glebee

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

I think you might be on to something there Pat. It's the same as how they're lumping Laois and Offally into the "others" in the news reports in the last few days despite surely knowign that people in those counties WANT/NEED to know what's happening.

But, when people dig into the detail, it seems that any case for keeping those isolated is rapidly diminishing.



Fair point. The fear out there IS very real and it's largely unwarranted but understandable nevertheless. It's the same reason I reckon that many are going along with the mask-wearing (that and the threat of fines/jail). It's the less difficult road at the moment - but I'll bet that as soon as the penalties are gone, so too will most of the masks

It's a very humid hazy day here in Laois at the moment. Think despite everything, we're getting the best of the weekend. Mate went to Galway (not from the 3 counties) and has done nothing but give out

The fact the are lumping Laois/Offaly into the rest of the number is insulting to the people of these counties. They are after hitting them with restrictions and they do not even have the decency to tell them how many daily cases there actually are there.

Graham

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

People are still travelling anyway regardless and more and more are questioning the damage these kneejerk responses are doing as a whole to the country.

So why cancel if you're not sick, haven't been sick, and don't feel any symptoms. Sure you could in theory be asymptomatic but are you then self isolating instead?

Here's the why:

Patser wrote: »

200 cases today, 81 in Kildare.......bugger.

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

I just genuinely don't understand it.

Apparently

hurikane

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

Indeed, though I reckon it's 50/50 as to whether they'll try to extend it another while at the end of next week.

But as I'll keep saying here, the wrong numbers are being used to drive the decisions. Number of new cases just tells us someone caught the virus. If those people start increasingly ending up in hospital or worse - then we have a significant problem.

But thankfully all the evidence to-date shows that this isn't happening despite the (rest of the) country being more open than it's been since this started.

In other words, it was a kneejerk overreaction by an acting CMO caught in the headlights of increasing daily cases that has been pretty much immediately proven to be unfounded - certainly for 2 out of the 3 counties involved.

Would you give it up, I know you’re in deep here but can you not just do the decent thing and admit you’re wrong?

Lundstram

A massive 0 deaths today.

That's not advertised, though. 200 CASES! 200 CASES! 200 CASES!

hurikane

Lundstram wrote: »

A massive 0 deaths today.

That's not advertised, though. 200 CASES! 200 CASES! 200 CASES!

You know the cases lead to the deaths, yeah?

Rock77

Lundstram wrote: »

A massive 0 deaths today.

That's not advertised, though. 200 CASES! 200 CASES! 200 CASES!

So it’s ok if the number of cases keeps going up? You don’t think the number of deaths my start to go up also?

jackboy

hurikane wrote: »

You know the cases lead to the deaths, yeah?

It’s not the number of cases that lead to deaths, it’s the profile of those infected.

hurikane

jackboy wrote: »

It’s not the number of cases that lead to deaths, it’s the profile of those infected.

Well they can’t die from it if they haven’t got it??

sydthebeat

Lundstram wrote: »

A massive 0 deaths today.

That's not advertised, though. 200 CASES! 200 CASES! 200 CASES!

Those 200 cases will probably be responsible for 2-3 deaths

Lundstram

sydthebeat wrote: »

Those 200 cases will probably be responsible for 2-3 deaths

And I'll probably win the lotto.

sydthebeat

Lundstram wrote: »

And I'll probably win the lotto.

Do you not realise the mortality rate of this virus?

The case fatality in Ireland is currently 6.6%...that would mean those 200 would equate to 13 deaths.

Allowing for the probable age range of these cases, 2 or 3 deaths is a conservative prediction

jackboy

hurikane wrote: »

Well they can’t die from it if they haven’t got it??

The country is not in lockdown. We know lots of people will be getting infected. The choice is to carry on like this and protect the vulnerable or go back to a never ending lockdown.

Our current plan guarantees lots of infected people, that was expected.

hurikane

jackboy wrote: »

The country is not in lockdown. We know lots of people will be getting infected. The choice is to carry on like this and protect the vulnerable or go back to a never ending lockdown.

Our current plan guarantees lots of infected people, that was expected.

What’s that got to do with anything I’ve said?

ACitizenErased

sydthebeat wrote: »

Do you not realise the mortality rate of this virus?

The case fatality in Ireland is currently 6.6%...that would mean those 200 would equate to 13 deaths.

Allowing for the probable age range of these cases, 2 or 3 deaths is a conservative prediction

To be fair, IFR is estimated to be 0.6% - we're picking up most if not all cases compared to March - there'll likely be 1 maybe 2 deaths from 200 cases, with a lot being asymptomatic as of late.

Lundstram

sydthebeat wrote: »

Do you not realise the mortality rate of this virus?

The case fatality in Ireland is currently 6.6%...that would mean those 200 would equate to 13 deaths.

Allowing for the probable age range of these cases, 2 or 3 deaths is a conservative prediction

6%?

I hope you don't teach maths.

jackboy

hurikane wrote: »

What’s that got to do with anything I’ve said?

I thought you were implying that high case numbers will be responsible for deaths. High case numbers in the general population will not cause high numbers of deaths. Infection of old and vulnerable is where the high number of deaths will happen. We know our current plan will lead to lots of cases as people are back to work and soon the schools will be open.

Navanboyo

I know the situation in the three counties is being described as a lockdown but isnt it fair to say thats a bit over the top?

The company I work for decided that this was an opportunity to get some work done in units that were closed in all three counties so I had to travel to Kildare on Friday and visit three of them.

From what I could see restaurants, Banks, Hardware shops and most retail units were open and whilst the towns were a little quieter than usual, there was still plenty of people around.

On top of this people are travelling into these counties for work and travelling out for work. Add in people like me visiting for non essential work and its hard to see this as a lockdown.

By the way I dont agree with what we are doing but I was told it had to be done.

It seems to me if a lockdown is needed then it means a county basically going back to phase 1 with no travel in or out and all non essential retail closed.

This type of current 'Lockdown' is not going to stop much in my opinion.

sydthebeat

jackboy wrote: »

The country is not in lockdown. We know lots of people will be getting infected. The choice is to carry on like this and protect the vulnerable or go back to a never ending lockdown.

Our current plan guarantees lots of infected people, that was expected.

100% agreed

sydthebeat

Lundstram wrote: »

6%?

I hope you don't teach maths.

I didn't say 6%

I said 6.6% case fatality rate.

Source : John hopkins

_Kaiser_

Graham wrote: »

Here's the why:





Apparently

Ah you're still obsessing about new cases? I thought we covered this the other day.

New/total cases mean nothing beyond "people caught the virus". That's it. It's not a death sentence and the numbers to date show that the vast majority of them will recover just fine.

I don't know how many times I can keep saying it. It's the outcomes that matter here, not the ever increasing total of case counts.

_Kaiser_

hurikane wrote: »

Would you give it up, I know you’re in deep here but can you not just do the decent thing and admit you’re wrong?

Please tell me what I'm wrong about. If your argument is based solely on the number of new cases or the overall total since March then I've covered that above.

Graham

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

Ah you're still obsessing about new cases?

Not at all.

I do however have a grasp of mathematics.

Increasing cases = increasing deaths.

That's the outcome the restrictions are in place to avoid.

Gaoth Laidir

Lundstram wrote: »

A massive 0 deaths today.

That's not advertised, though. 200 CASES! 200 CASES! 200 CASES!

Eh, as is the case each and every day, they first tweet out the number of deaths. Today is no different. All news bulletins also start with the number of deaths.

https://twitter.com/roinnslainte/status/1294681787139006464?s=19

Beltby

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

Please tell me what I'm wrong about. If your argument is based solely on the number of new cases or the overall total since March then I've covered that above.

Have a read of this. https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/young-man-dies-after-attending-covid-19-party-in-texas-1.4303142%3Fmode%3Damp&ved=2ahUKEwi8wKqu7Z3rAhURlFwKHRS6BzMQFjABegQIARAB&usg=AOvVaw2hgagLmEh_e9Ce13CfHiiO&ampcf=1

And there's plenty more cases like him.

Edit- that isn't a great link. Try this one. https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/us/i-thought-it-was-a-hoax-patient-dies-after-texas-covid-party-1.4303106%3Fmode%3Damp&ved=2ahUKEwicyNqi7p3rAhV6ThUIHcDWD4AQFjAAegQIBBAB&usg=AOvVaw3OEhOnWkopc6tjuQXz28IV&ampcf=1

ExMachina1000

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

Please tell me what I'm wrong about. If your argument is based solely on the number of new cases or the overall total since March then I've covered that above.

You are entitled to your opinion.
At this stage of the pandemic and with today's new case figures what would you do going forward?
If you had the final say what would your plan be?

_Kaiser_

Graham wrote: »

Not at all.

I do however have a grasp of mathematics.

Increasing cases = increasing deaths.

That's the outcome the restrictions are in place to avoid.

Deaths are inevitable. Every day, from a huge variety of causes - natural, accidental and indeed malicious, or sadly suicides.

Your mistake as with many others is you are taking the very small percentage of people who are at significant risk from the virus and extrapolating it to apply to the entire population.

Thankfully this virus is of little to no risk to the vast majority (hence why we DON'T have hundreds in hospitals and many more dead despite the widest reopening yet over the last 2 months) so your extrapolation isn't going to happen based on the evidence to date.

You're trying to save everyone regardless. A noble and well intentioned aim I grant you, but not realistic or practical I'm afraid. Instead we need to focus on those who actually ARE at increased/greatest risk