Lockdown for Kildare (Aug 8th-31st)

Minier81

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I am not 100% sure what the the figures were for Kildare but you could be right.Ronan Glynn said yesterday that they were closely watching the figues in Dublin. If the keep rising in Dublin i am sure they will probably consider putting Dublin into lockdown. They are no different to anyone else

Oh totally!! I heard him say that yesterday too, so we'll see if the number come under control otherwise I would presume a lockdown is inevitable. I was more wondering if there was a magic threshold number of cases per 100,000.

Beltby

Beltby wrote: »

According to you, Kildare residents are ignoring the restrictions. So why should Dubs observe them? No different to anyone else.

I didnt say all Kildare residents are ignoring them.And anyway did i mention anywhere that the Dubs should observe them. I asked a question will Dublin go into lockdown if there cases keep rising. You need to get down off your high horse

Beltby

Deleted User wrote: »

I didnt say all Kildare residents are ignoring them.And anyway did i mention anywhere that the Dubs should observe them. I asked a question will Dublin go into lockdown if there cases keep rising. You need to get down off your high horse

I could say the same about your high horse. You've no issue ignoring restrictions so why should anyone else.

Beltby

Beltby wrote: »

I could say the same about your high horse. You've no issue ignoring restrictions so why should anyone else.[/QUOT


As i mentioned already i never said anything about Dubs ignoring restrictions,i have no problem with people ignoring restrictions. Our government are ignoring them. All i asked was will Dublin go into lockdown if numbers keep rising. Its a simple question

Beltby

Deleted User wrote: »

Beltby wrote: »

I could say the same about your high horse. You've no issue ignoring restrictions so why should anyone else.[/QUOT


As i mentioned already i never said anything about Dubs ignoring restrictions,i have no problem with people ignoring restrictions. Our government are ignoring them. All i asked was will Dublin go into lockdown if numbers keep rising. Its a simple question

A lockdown anywhere is meaningless now. People will point at Kildare people ignoring it, and think to themselves why should I respect it.

Beltby

Beltby wrote: »

Deleted User wrote: »

A lockdown anywhere is meaningless now. People will point at Kildare people ignoring it, and think to themselves why should I respect it.

Kildare should never have been put into lockdown anyway

wrangler

Deleted User wrote: »

Beltby wrote: »

Kildare should never have been put into lockdown anyway

A friend In Athy claims she knows 30 or 40 with the virus and now tegral has turned up cases.
Lockdowns are no help while all the house parties are going on, no problem finding one in any town last weekend

Duke of Url

Beltby wrote: »

Deleted User wrote: »

A lockdown anywhere is meaningless now. People will point at Kildare people ignoring it, and think to themselves why should I respect it.

But its not people in Kildare ignoring it. Everyone is ignoring it.

There are many people from outside the county coming and going as they please in Kildare.

Rural County Lockdowns are a waste of time, they simply dont make sense unless its widespread 100s of cases all over the county.

If there is a large outbreak in Naas, Kildare Town, Maynooth, Celbridge, Newbridge etc then have local town restrictions.

theological

Deleted User wrote: »

Beltby wrote: »

I could say the same about your high horse. You've no issue ignoring restrictions so why should anyone else.

As i mentioned already i never said anything about Dubs ignoring restrictions,i have no problem with people ignoring restrictions. Our government are ignoring them. All i asked was will Dublin go into lockdown if numbers keep rising. Its a simple question

Looking at absolute numbers won't tell you much. What's important is the number of cases per 100,000. Dublin has a much larger population than Kildare.

There were 457 cases in Dublin and 327 cases in Kildare in the last 14 days.

There are 1.348 million people living in Dublin according to a Google.

There are 222,504 in Kildare.

Therefore there were nearly 40 cases per 100,000 in Dublin in the last 14 days and 146 per 100,000 in Kildare.

Let's look at yesterday alone and do the same thing:

73 cases in Dublin. 5.41 per 100,000
17 in Kildare. 7.73 per 100,000

Proportionately Kildare still has more virus in the population.

Patser

Yes but even that way if analysis can have a bad result, if you just go by cases per population.

Sligo or Leitrim could be locked down by just a relatively few cases, dispersed around the county and controllable but due to low overall population.

In Dublin a cluster of 200 in a factory that is spreading quickly and uncontrollably in a localised community, may have no restrictions implemented because per population over the county its low.

Also you can see in the reports coming out that majority of cases in Kildare are contract traced back to known cases and community transmission is low, but community transmission in Dublin is a lot higher and more worrying as that means it's active in the community.

theological

Patser wrote: »

Yes but even that way if analysis can have a bad result, if you just go by cases per population.

Sligo or Leitrim could be locked down by just a relatively few cases, dispersed around the county and controllable but due to low overall population.

In Dublin a cluster of 200 in a factory that is spreading quickly and uncontrollably in a localised community, may have no restrictions implemented because per population over the county its low.

Also you can see in the reports coming out that majority of cases in Kildare are contract traced back to known cases and community transmission is low, but community transmission in Dublin is a lot higher and more worrying as that means it's active in the community.

The distinction between "contact with a confirmed case" and "community transmission" seems relatively arbitrary to me. Even if the virus spread in a meat factory that still means that someone brought it in from the community to work.

Can you provide some data that suggests that more spread has happened in the community in Dublin I'd be interested to see this?

seamusk84

Beltby wrote: »

According to you, Kildare residents are ignoring the restrictions. So why should Dubs observe them? No different to anyone else.

We can't ignore it. All the restaurants and pub/restaurants are closed due to this local lock-down. Along with a lot of the shops that had reopened after the nationwide lock-down.

That can't be ignored.

Patser

theological wrote: »

The distinction between "contact with a confirmed case" and "community transmission" seems relatively arbitrary to me. Even if the virus spread in a meat factory that still means that someone brought it in from the community to work.

Can you provide some data that suggests that more spread has happened in the community in Dublin I'd be interested to see this?

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/coronavirus-ireland-glynn-sounds-note-of-caution-about-cases-increasing-in-dublin-1.4337667?mode=amp&__twitter_impression=true

You'll see it mentioned early in the article above, and as part of Dr Glynns press conference yesterday.

Unlike in Kildare, where the high numbers initiated from defined clusters, Dublin is showing a more spread out undefined transmission with a higher level of community transfer. 2 things to note about that, it still remains only 1 in 3 for community transfer in Dublin, do still a minority- but also a large number of transmissions are shown as unknown cause of transfer, so still under investigation, so possibly yet to be added to community transfer

Patser

Only 5 in Kildare today, and a few big figures from 14 days to drop off our rate over next few days, wonder what are the odds of an early lifting for this weekend.


One statistician has us dropping below Tipp tomorrow, so possibly a 'why us not them' pressure too

Minier81

I'm praying for an early lifting too. Trying not to get my hopes up too much as this could be a weekend effect lull in numbers... tomorrow will tell a lot.

Rock77

Patser wrote: »

Only 5 in Kildare today, and a few big figures from 14 days to drop off our rate over next few days, wonder what are the odds of an early lifting for this weekend.


One statistician has us dropping below Tipp tomorrow, so possibly a 'why us not them' pressure too

I’m expecting it to be lifted this Sunday to be honest..

Patser

Rock77 wrote: »

I’m expecting it to be lifted this Sunday to be honest..

Decisions seem to be made on a Friday, and when the restrictions were brought in, and lifted in Offaly and Laois - both were fairly immediate

jaffa20

Hoping restrictions lifted this week too. I haven't even out since March really want to get out and just have a meal and a few drinks to celebrate some recent good news.

H8GHOTI

Re the Kildare vs Dublin debate.
You can argue population if you want but you can manipulate numbers any way you like to prove a point.

For example, the area of Kildare is 1695 sq km and Dublin is only 921 sq km. Taking the most recent 14 day figures of 332 and 473, it works out at 0.2 cases per sq km for Kildare but 0.5 for Dublin. So you are over twice as likely to be in close proximity to a confirmed case in Dublin. Should definitely be locked down.

s1ippy

That's class maths.

They're not going to do it, it will cost too much money and there's no rise in hospitalisations. I just wish Dubs would stay put because it's clearly a hotbed of infection and they spent all summer spreading it around the country.

Scoondal

Kildare : Did ye not hear. We are all in this together so stay home.

theological

H8GHOTI wrote: »

Re the Kildare vs Dublin debate.
You can argue population if you want but you can manipulate numbers any way you like to prove a point.

For example, the area of Kildare is 1695 sq km and Dublin is only 921 sq km. Taking the most recent 14 day figures of 332 and 473, it works out at 0.2 cases per sq km for Kildare but 0.5 for Dublin. So you are over twice as likely to be in close proximity to a confirmed case in Dublin. Should definitely be locked down.

Per capita is more meaningful because people are likely to come into contact with one another.

Perhaps the government could have been more granular in their targeting and initially restricted movements in the direct areas near the meat plants, or have done an assessment of where the employees lived.

Lockdown of some form was probably the correct decision given that the rate per 100,000 was disproportionately high.

In the UK the strategy seems to be enhanced local measures first before full lockdown. For example it is only the worst affected areas of Blackburn & Darwen, Oldham and Pendle that have the no socialising restriction at present. Perhaps that could have been done in Kildare. The population of these three towns in the north west of England is probably larger than Kildare county.

Perhaps more targeted measures would have been better initially but given the rate per 100,000 was so high a lockdown of some form was probably required. This is also the measure used in the UK by the by. It isn't pulled out of nowhere.

Rock77

Patser wrote: »

Decisions seem to be made on a Friday, and when the restrictions were brought in, and lifted in Offaly and Laois - both were fairly immediate

For some reason I had it in my head they announced on Friday that restrictions were to be lifted on Sunday.. (for Laois and Offaly)

That’s what I think will happen for Kildare this week anyway...

Minier81

Rock77 wrote: »

For some reason I had it in my head they announced on Friday that restrictions were to be lifted on Sunday.. (for Laois and Offaly)

That’s what I think will happen for Kildare this week anyway...

Was it announced on Thursday last week for laois/offaly? Anyone know when nphet are scheduled to meet this week?

Patser

They announced last Friday that restrictions in Offaly and Laois were lifted with immediate affect - probably realised that saying, you're good to go just wait 48 hours would have been absolutely and completely ignored.


Head of the HSE is facing a Dail committee today about recent Covid spike and also about the Kildare response - unlikely to have any immediate impact but might get to see some of the reasoning behind response.

Also I've seen it shown that a few more low number days like yesterday will drop Kildare way down infection per 100,000 over last 14 days - as we are still high on that chart due to 2 week old numbers. Unless we're suddenly very high again today, we should drop below Tipp at least


Edit:

Just to show who I'm talking about

https://twitter.com/ConorRiordan2/status/1298308917303410691

polesheep

s1ippy wrote: »

That's class maths.

They're not going to do it, it will cost too much money and there's no rise in hospitalisations. I just wish Dubs would stay put because it's clearly a hotbed of infection and they spent all summer spreading it around the country.

How do you know that they didn't pick it up around the country?

Patser

There is hope - Dr Glynn has said Kildare numbers under constant review in the hope of lifting as soon as possible

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0826/1161330-covid-19-committee/

grumpymunster

Patser wrote: »

There is hope - Dr Glynn has said Kildare numbers under constant review in the hope of lifting as soon as possible

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0826/1161330-covid-19-committee/

Much as I would like to take some hope in that he would have said the same last week and the week before. I would love to see the risk analysis that was carried out to shut down Kildare as I have a funny feeling it was done on the back of a fag packet by a bunch of drunken sailors on shore leave (aka HPHET).

grumpymunster

At least I have an answer now there was no risk assessment carried out the shut down was called on a hunch and they expect us to take them seriously. If adequate testing was carried out the spike would have been quickly foreseen as the potential for spread was well known in meat factories (not because they are bad but just because of how they operate some things are labour intensive) and also in direct provision.

He said he objects to the singling out of the Acting CMO Ronan Glynn by the GAA and it would have been easy for NPHET to say all sport should cease but it did not too that.

Answering Fine Gael Deputy Bernard Durkan, he said the advice is that the spike of cases in Kildare is a combination of factors, including high risk workplaces such as meat plants, workers sharing travel to work and shared accommodation.

But he stressed that there could have been other factors such as a "super spreader" or a number of "super spreaders".

_Kaiser_

grumpymunster wrote: »

Much as I would like to take some hope in that he would have said the same last week and the week before. I would love to see the risk analysis that was carried out to shut down Kildare as I have a funny feeling it was done on the back of a fag packet by a bunch of drunken sailors on shore leave (aka HPHET).

I reckon any early lifting of restrictions (if it happens) will be a political decision to try and dampen the outrage and anger over Hogan's Road Trip and being in and out of Kildare at will while everyone else was supposed to stay within the county.