Lukashenko

biko

Considering Belarus' proximity to Moscow I doubt Putin will allow anyone too US friendly taking power in Minsk.

Itssoeasy

Listening back to an interview from a Russian government MP from the BBC world service and it seems "polish and Baltic state nobles" are part of the problem. He also called the Ukrainian president a "clown" and he seemed to be saying that president Lukaschenko needs to not be as rigid.

MontgomeryClift

Looking through the major media views on Lukashenko, he's clearly the bad guy we're all supposed to despise. When I see this, I think of Assad using poison gas on his own people, weapons of mass destruction and babies being dumped from incubators.

Reading up on why he's so unpopular, Lukashenko's sin seems to have been his resistance to allowing his country to become yet another playground for capitalism.

The vultures would love to install a government that was both hostile to Russia and allowed them to loot Belarus. It looks like we have another Orange Revolution in the making.

rossie1977

MontgomeryClift wrote: »

Looking through the major media views on Lukashenko, he's clearly the bad guy we're all supposed to despise. When I see this, I think of Assad using poison gas on his own people, weapons of mass destruction and babies being dumped from incubators.

Reading up on why he's so unpopular, Lukashenko's sin seems to have been his resistance to allowing his country to become yet another playground for capitalism.

The vultures would love to install a government that was both hostile to Russia and allowed them to loot Belarus. It looks like we have another Orange Revolution in the making.

Russia right now is hyper capitalist..

Limpy

Luk thought he could play a balancing act to get more leverage from Putin and the West. Now the west are giving him his reward. He should of kept Putin closer. Either way how many sucker's will die for the West and Russia in Belarus.

Limpy

Itssoeasy wrote: »

"Unless you kill me" well it happened in Romania in 1989 so maybe he shouldn't be giving the protesters any ideas. He probably doesn't want to end up like Nicolae Ceausescu.

There's no way Russia would have fell Asleep at the wheel with Belarus. They will have plenty of options to make this very messy. Ukraine was a good test and they got Crimea without firing a bullet.

Irishman80

Limpy wrote: »

There's no way Russia would have fell Asleep at the wheel with Belarus. They will have plenty of options to make this very messy. Ukraine was a good test and they got Crimea without firing a bullet.

Not true. Putin has a very weak hand here. The only way he wins is if NATO and the West are weak.

Limpy

The EU is weak, Belarus is not going to become a member anytime soon. So who takes care of them during a global pandemic?

Irishman80

Limpy wrote: »

The EU is weak, Belarus is not going to become a member anytime soon. So who takes care of them during a global pandemic?

NATO has legitimate defensive responsibilities in the Baltic States. Any Russia military encroachment into Belarus will be met with a substantial increase in advanced weaponry and manpower in the Baltics. Then, sanctions will be increased substantially on Russia.

At a minimum.

Limpy

Irishman80 wrote: »

NATO has legitimate defensive responsibilities in the Baltic States. Any Russia military encroachment into Belarus will be met with a substantial increase in advanced weaponry and manpower in the Baltics. Then, sanctions will be increased substantially on Russia.

At a minimum.

Who cares about sanctions on Russia. As long as Belarus are not brought into the EU I don't care what happens

Irishman80

Limpy wrote: »

Who cares about sanctions on Russia. As long as Belarus are not brought into the EU I don't care what happens

The dreams of a new Russian empire are falling down around Putin. About time...

AMKC

Irishman80 wrote: »

NATO has legitimate defensive responsibilities in the Baltic States. Any Russia military encroachment into Belarus will be met with a substantial increase in advanced weaponry and manpower in the Baltics. Then, sanctions will be increased substantially on Russia.

At a minimum.

None of it good. It looks like a beautiful country Belerus but they want to be careful for what they wish for or they could end up like Syria or Lybia or worse be the start of the next big war.
Lukenshenko needs to go. His people have came out and told him that so unless he wants his country torn apart and a lot of blood on his hands the right and logical thing to do would be to stand down.

Limpy

Irishman80 wrote: »

The dreams of a new Russian empire are falling down around Putin. About time...

Yeah we'll get Trump to take over the world he is loved as much.

Gatling

Irishman80 wrote: »

NATO has legitimate defensive responsibilities in the Baltic States. Any Russia military encroachment into Belarus will be met with a substantial increase in advanced weaponry and manpower in the Baltics. Then, sanctions will be increased substantially on Russia.

At a minimum.

Wouldn't happen , several eu countries and NATO members are heavily dependent on russian oil and gas supplies ,
Hence why Putin isn't too bothered with sanctions ,or illegally occupying parts of Ukraine ,they still sit at the UN top table ,
Till it's decided to to remove their seat at the UN and removed from the swift banking system it's business as usual in Moscow

Infini

Truth is Russia can't just go in there and put in their own puppet without serious consequences. They were willing to take the hit with Ukraine over Crimea but it would probably be too costly this time around not to mention it would seriously increase hostility with the Baltic states as well as the EU as a whole. Risk/Reward is definately not in Putin's favour and it likely isnt worth getting his hands dirty when the guy in charge actually brought all this on himself with his own behavior. There's being a cute hoor and then there's just being a brazen fool.

What's happening in Belarus is essentially your typical tin pot dictator who's been around too long and squandered his support base to the point even they're beginning to turn on them. Arresting people he doesn't like will only aggravate the situation especially since they look to be prepared to call a General Strike at this point to force him out. He just can't accept the truth in that he's a hasbeen and his time has passed. The more he pushes against his own people the more they'll push back until he either leaves or is driven out. Hell it isn't truly his own choice in the end because all it take's is his lieutenent's deciding it's not worth being taken down with him who will drive him out if the people rise up in large enough numbers.

Polar101

MontgomeryClift wrote: »

Reading up on why he's so unpopular, Lukashenko's sin seems to have been his resistance to allowing his country to become yet another playground for capitalism.

When you manipulate elections, it's pretty difficult to judge popular support. I'm sure he knows his popular support isn't quite what the election results show, but it also makes it difficult to know how much opposition there is. There's also the Covid factor, people are more willing to overlook poor governance when they aren't suddenly dying - but now you've got your president telling you things will go great if you drive tractors and go to the sauna, which doesn't really inspire faith in the leader.

imme

Deleted User wrote: »

Tsikhanouskaya is exactly who Belarus needs. A progressive that has support across the political spectrum.

Support for Putin in Belarus has been on the wane for a long time, very different to Crimea where there was a massive % that considered themselves Russian.

Can you explain what you mean by "progressive", you say that she is "A Progressive".

imme

The end of the road looks to be in sight for Lukashenko, he went to a tractor wheel factory on Monday and got a less than welcoming welcome.

There are clips of him trying to speak in front of a microphone while protesters are making their voices heard.
How can he come back from the position of being booed and shouted down.

There's another clip of him asking a protester to take him on, his minders guide him away.

There's a lovely clip of the Minsk Philharmonic singing in protest.

Elmer Blooker

MontgomeryClift wrote: »

Looking through the major media views on Lukashenko, he's clearly the bad guy we're all supposed to despise. When I see this, I think of Assad using poison gas on his own people, weapons of mass destruction and babies being dumped from incubators.

Reading up on why he's so unpopular, Lukashenko's sin seems to have been his resistance to allowing his country to become yet another playground for capitalism.

The vultures would love to install a government that was both hostile to Russia and allowed them to loot Belarus. It looks like we have another Orange Revolution in the making.

Let them have their 'freedom' courtesy of the IMF, I'll have no sympathy for them when their country is shut down and becomes an economic basket case like Ukraine.

There's a lovely clip of the Minsk Philharmonic singing in protest.

They'll be the first to go when there isn't any money to pay them!

riffmongous

God forbid people want free and fair elections eh

igCorcaigh

As a leftie, I'm always disappointed that the Left don't come out in support of popular protest against dictators.

They guy is a crook and a thug.

I noticed there was a small protest in Cork a couple of days, seemed to be Eastern Europeans.

Muahahaha

Infini wrote: »

Truth is Russia can't just go in there and put in their own puppet without serious consequences. They were willing to take the hit with Ukraine over Crimea but it would probably be too costly this time around not to mention it would seriously increase hostility with the Baltic states as well as the EU as a whole. Risk/Reward is definately not in Putin's favour and it likely isnt worth getting his hands dirty when the guy in charge actually brought all this on himself with his own behavior. There's being a cute hoor and then there's just being a brazen fool.

What's happening in Belarus is essentially your typical tin pot dictator who's been around too long and squandered his support base to the point even they're beginning to turn on them. Arresting people he doesn't like will only aggravate the situation especially since they look to be prepared to call a General Strike at this point to force him out. He just can't accept the truth in that he's a hasbeen and his time has passed. The more he pushes against his own people the more they'll push back until he either leaves or is driven out. Hell it isn't truly his own choice in the end because all it take's is his lieutenent's deciding it's not worth being taken down with him who will drive him out if the people rise up in large enough numbers.

Yeah its looking like his time is up because they arrested some 6,000 people in the initial post election protest and instead of the population being scared of protesting they reacted yesterday by putting 200,000 people on the streets. So there is no fear of him and I'd expect next weekends protests will be colossal in size. It will be telling what happens at those protests what way this goes, he might order a Bloody Sunday style massacre of his own citizens to crush the movement.

Either way the problem is he is not likely to go quietly. His son is being groomed to take over from him, you can see him standing right behind Lukashenko in a lot of tv footage looking like a secret service type with the sunglasses on.

Gatling

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

I'll have no sympathy for them when their country is shut down and becomes an economic basket case like Ukraine.

the factory signed in .

It's called theft by russians

Muahahaha

Was reading that the general strike is spreading, factory workers, miners, teachers have joined it as well as journalists from the state propaganda tv channel. Lukashenko gave a speech to what were hand picked workers from a tractor factory yesterday and they started chanting 'resign,resign' and 'liar, liar'. He was said to be visibly shaken by it. The incident reminds me of Ceausescu in Romania who did a speech outside his palace in Bucharest and the crowd turned on him, he was removed from power soon after as everyone realised the game was up. Lukashenko seems to be at that exact juncture right now.

Its looking like its only a matter of time now and hopefully it wont involve bloodshed. Putin is likely to cut him loose but at the same time he won't tolerate anything other than another puppet. That should be acceptable to the population because they are generally pro-Russia and they're not rising up here against Putin, they just want Lukashenko gone. Now if Putin were to replace Lukashenko with his son that would be a problem.

Svetlana Tikhanovskaya has offered to come back from exile in Lithuania and form a national government that would stabilse the country and then hold fresh elections. Im not sure how Putin would see dealing with her or her husband but it would buy him some time to get his new man in there and be ready to fix the next election.

Gatling

MontgomeryClift wrote: »

I'd rather they didn't become another Ukraine, but it looks like they are going to go the same way: Regime change by way of a CIA/Zionist coup presented in the western media as a smiling, youthful campaign

Nothing to do with their country getting financially raped by Kremlin puppet ,who turned on his population to keep putin happy

Tokyo

Mod: @MontgomeryClift - don't post in the thread again.

AMKC

Putin at it again. He just had his rival from the 2018 elections poisoned.

Polar101

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0822/1160716-belarus-president-army-borders/

Lukashenko has ordered the army to defend the country against (name of fictional enemy to be confirmed). There will be military excercices in Grodno (Hrodna) which is conveniently located near the Polish and Lithuanian borders.

Infini

Polar101 wrote: »

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0822/1160716-belarus-president-army-borders/

Lukashenko has ordered the army to defend the country against (name of fictional enemy to be confirmed). There will be military excercices in Grodno (Hrodna) which is conveniently located near the Polish and Lithuanian borders.

He might be getting a wee bit desperate at this point. Seem's to be trying to distract after the lads gave him a bollocking at that factory a few days back.

Irish_rat

Belarus will be destroyed if capitalism takes over. Major EU/Nato influence here