Covid 19 Part XXI-27,908 in ROI (1,777 deaths) 6,647 in NI (559 deaths)(22/08)Read OP

landofthetree

caveat emptor wrote: »

https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1295712951207440384?s=20

We were down to around 300 active cases at one stage.

Now up to 2200+.

We should have went for 0 cases.

I suspect the UK and Ireland will end up going for a zero strategy as we face into the winter.

ChikiChiki

timmy_mallet wrote: »

And four weeks later after your 20 days, youd be in another 20 day 'hard' lockdown. Lather rinse repeat.

I'd take a month lockdown aswell to be honest. We absolutely butchered this recovery.

Think we specifically need to learn from the mistakes of the meat factories and direct provision. What an absolute shambles, to think Government agencies were only half arsed about doing their job correctly.

They can give out about house parties all they want, but we are where we are because of the failure of state authorities to do what they should be doing.

MickeyLeari

Masala wrote: »

Any guidance of how to do an online meeting.... would it need an external company to organize or can it be done easily internally. A Zoom wouldn’t suit 60 people trying to diallin....

I responded with the relevant legislation and with some advice. I have been on meetings with 500 plus people from many countries on zoom. The key is to control it properly. You can get a zoom account for that number of people for 15 euro for a month with no commitment.

I would recommend safeguards and to test the system in advance (you can offer a test the day before to participants if they wish to join). It is intuitive and easy but I would suggest the following advice:

1. Password protect.
2. Utilise the waiting room
3. Request people to identify themselves clearly.
4. Chair controls everything with auto mute.
5. Utilise the raise flag feature.
6. Explain how the meeting will work at the outset And be flexible in respect to any issues.

hmmm

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Humans do respect boundaries when it's clear what they are but for whatever reason since the new government have come into power there seems to be a lack of clarity. There is conflicting messges including tonight.

On PT tonight it was said that the strategy was not being communicated, and it's exactly right.

The government aren't being honest with people. It's likely we will see a vaccine, but it will be mid-2021 probably at the earliest by the time people can get it. They need to be telling people that this will last until then.

There's a lot of people who thought this was all over, or that it will disappear in a few weeks. The 1918 pandemic kept coming back in waves for 2 years.

hotmail.com

Until September 13th? Dublin City will be ruined.

The Unbearables

ChikiChiki wrote: »

I'd take a month lockdown aswell to be honest. We absolutely butchered this recovery.

Think we specifically need to learn from the mistakes of the meat factories and direct provision. What an absolute shambles, to think Government agencies were only half arsed about doing their job correctly.

They can give out about house parties all they want, but we are where we are because of the failure of state authorities to do what they should be doing.

You can't blame the government for everything. Take personal responsibility. Irish people seem unable or unwilling to do this.

CalamariFritti

caveat emptor wrote: »

Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1235273803317551105?s=20

Yes but if you are talking about imposing restrictions on entire populations 'better safe than sorry' and 'just in case' simply isn't good enough. How do you not see that? You cant threaten to enter people's homes based on 'absence of evidence isn't evidence of absence'.

MickeyLeari

MickeyLeari wrote: »

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Can you please stop misleading people on respect to the causes of the recent increase. It is not related to travel.

https://twitter.com/BloombergAsia/status/1292927914409963523?s=20

Of course it is.

They have been a new reservoir of infected people
to cause additional spread. Slowly at first and then quickly. That's how this thing works.

How's Finland doing?

Are they following our policy?

timmy_mallet

ChikiChiki wrote: »

I'd take a month lockdown aswell to be honest. We absolutely butchered this recovery.

Think we specifically need to learn from the mistakes of the meat factories and direct provision. What an absolute shambles, to think Government agencies were only half arsed about doing their job correctly.

They can give out about house parties all they want, but we are where we are because of the failure of state authorities to do what they should be doing.

You won't get to 0 for long. If it all. And if you did, itll return. And if it does, you're hard 20 days lockdown again, and again, and again. It's been tried, it doesn't work.

The UK is having more flu and pneumonia deaths than covid, all while undergoing similar restrictions on life. It would seem that influenza and not covid might require more attention right now.

Lundstram

timmy_mallet wrote: »

And four weeks later after your 20 days, youd be in another 20 day 'hard' lockdown. Lather rinse repeat.

No we wouldn't, did you actually read the post? The virus was imported. Quench it with a hard lockdown for 20 days - month then seal borders.

This flip flopping bullsh1t of restrictions and local lockdowns is just kicking the can down the road. We are a long way away from a vaccine, throw in another year for each and every one of us to actually get it. Pie in the sky stuff thinking a vaccine will come soon and save us all.

Limpy

Lundstram wrote: »

I'd gladly take a 20 day hard lockdown over this current nonsensical approach. Hard lockdown then close borders, tight. Give people 7 days notice to get home or stay out. No exceptions.

You must be getting your Pup onto your bank account. No worries

ChikiChiki

The Unbearables wrote: »

You can't blame the government for everything. Take personal responsibility. Irish people seem unable or unwilling to do this.

Where did the clusters start?

Who the **** was supposed to checking in on the meat factories?

Who the **** is supposed to be overseeing labour conditions in these factories?

And why is some of this labour not paying into the Irish tax system therefore making them not entitled to our Covid schemes.

Absolute failure by the state

Cop onto yourself.

Limpy

Lundstram wrote: »

No we wouldn't, did you actually read the post? The virus was imported. Quench it with a hard lockdown for 20 days - month then seal borders.

This flip flopping bullsh1t of restrictions and local lockdowns is just kicking the can down the road. We are a long way away from a vaccine, throw in another year for each and every one of us to actually get it. Pie in the sky stuff thinking a vaccine will come soon and save us all.

Why don't you and the vunerable quarentine from society. Let us keep the country afloat.

Lundstram

Limpy wrote: »

You must be getting your Pup onto your bank account. No worries

Nope I've never once claimed anything off the social welfare. Worked all through this. Saved loads recently so I'd comfortably survive a month with no income.

peasant

Here's an idea:

While giving the guards the power to stop house parties they should also be given the powers to close any and all factories (including meat and food factories) that don't provide employment according to the guidelines and/or have an active case on the floor / in the office. Shut them right down there and then, no questions asked.
That might incentivise the meat plants et all to get their greedy act cleaned up pronto.

theballz

Where do people think we really went wrong with this?

timmy_mallet

Lundstram wrote: »

No we wouldn't, did you actually read the post? The virus was imported. Quench it with a hard lockdown for 20 days - month then seal borders.

This flip flopping bullsh1t of restrictions and local lockdowns is just kicking the can down the road. We are a long way away from a vaccine, throw in another year for each and every one of us to actually get it. Pie in the sky stuff thinking a vaccine will come soon and save us all.

I'd argue its pie in the sky to think 0 covid globally is possible, even with a vaccine.

Turkish1

hmmm wrote: »

I don't disagree with the rest of your post, but I notice this thought that fatigue is setting in from many posters.

The virus doesn't care if we're fatigued. If our hospitals get over-run by new cases, we're in big trouble and the government will have to introduce more stringent measures - up to and including enforced lockdowns, closing businesses etc if required. There is no choice here, it will never be an option to simply let the virus cut through the country.

It's up to all of us to do our bit while we have the opportunity. It's much better than the alternative.

But what's the plan here - the vaccine could quite realistically be another ,12+months away (if we ever get a vaccine). Have we another year+ of this jumping in and out of full/partial lockdown/restrictions.

At some point we need to actually learn to live with this - work from home where possible, good hygiene practices, were masks, socially distance etc.. this crap of not being able to see your friends/family members for weeks on end while you have 40,GAA/RUGBY lads hopping off each other etc..

The whole thing is just a nonsensical and inconsistent approach. This inconsistent approach is not going to get people to row in behind it.

I have a christening at the weekend which is generally a great family occasion. I would have c. 13adults and 8kids in my garden for food/drinks which can now not go ahead. Yet I can play a GAA match on that very same evening with 40-50 people in close contact.

Turkish1

peasant wrote: »

Here's an idea:

While giving the guards the power to stop house parties they should also be given the powers to close any and all factories (including meat and food factories) that don't provide employment according to the guidelines and/or have an active case on the floor / in the office. Shut them right down there and then, no questions asked.
That might incentivise the meat plants et all to get their greedy act cleaned up pronto.

Maybe give the guards the right to just come in and search your house top to bottom at the drop of a hat without any reason - just cause, why not. Sure there could be people hiding under the beds

Lundstram

Lundstram wrote: »

No we wouldn't, did you actually read the post? The virus was imported. Quench it with a hard lockdown for 20 days - month then seal borders.

This flip flopping bullsh1t of restrictions and local lockdowns is just kicking the can down the road. We are a long way away from a vaccine, throw in another year for each and every one of us to actually get it. Pie in the sky stuff thinking a vaccine will come soon and save us all.

https://twitter.com/BloombergAsia/status/1292927914409963523?s=20

Someone with the same opinion.

Does the government think we can SD for 2 years?

Another lockdown and hopefully the penny will drop with govt/health officials our border controls were the problem and they will apologise to us for squandering our good position in June.

caveat emptor

caveat emptor wrote: »

Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1235273803317551105?s=20

CalamariFritti wrote: »

Yes but if you are talking about imposing restrictions on entire populations 'better safe than sorry' and 'just in case' simply isn't good enough. How do you not see that? You cant threaten to enter people's homes based on 'absence of evidence isn't evidence of absence'.

Another nice strawman. Going into people's home without a warrant is unconstitutional as anyone would know.

But I digress. We are talking about evidence that the virus is not "travel related".

Feel free to answer the questions or bring up a totally unrelated point.

• How the fvck did it get here?
• Why did I stay at home for best part of two months
• Why weren't people arriving checked for the virus after our healthcare system
  struggled to deal with those who already contracted it?

See you this time next year for the same conversation.

Itssoeasy

hmmm wrote: »

On PT tonight it was said that the strategy was not being communicated, and it's exactly right.

The government aren't being honest with people. It's likely we will see a vaccine, but it will be mid-2021 probably at the earliest by the time people can get it. They need to be telling people that this will last until then.

There's a lot of people who thought this was all over, or that it will disappear in a few weeks. The 1918 pandemic kept coming back in waves for 2 years.

It's been communicated but in a way that's become less clear and again I don't know why that is. It's not good to see journalists on twitter tweeting about being able to do X but not Y and not understanding it and taking about contradictions. Confusion isn't good.

I think people want to feel there is light at the end of the tunnel and there was and the vast majority of people in this country were(and still are) adhering to the guidelines and also using their own judgement on whether they felt safe or not to go places and do things and I'm sorry but how was the meat factories outbreak allowed to happen when we had been doing so well ? That's what is bugging me because as a country we stepped up and did and are doing our bit. Anyway that's it for me tonight.

Stheno

theballz wrote: »

Where do people think we really went wrong with this?

keeping borders open
Not protecting nursing homes
No enforced quarantine

coastwatch

Lundstram wrote: »

I'd gladly take a 20 day hard lockdown over this current nonsensical approach. Hard lockdown then close borders, tight. Give people 7 days notice to get home or stay out. No exceptions.

Would you be happy with that 20 day lockdown every 3, 6, 9 months to reset to zero?
Thats what it would take.
I think a more viable option is acceptance of the new normal, with long term restrictions and changes to individual behaviors, in addition to a "whack a mole" approach to surpressing outbreaks.

WoollyRedHat

hmmm wrote: »

Assuming you're not Bank of Ireland or CRH, Zoom can work very well for a small AGM. The host can mute everyone. Participants who want to ask a question can enter in the chat window or raise their hand. There's probably a thread on this somewhere on Boards already.

There is also a webinar license for Zoom which is more one-way communication.

People can also dial in to a Zoom meeting if they don't have access to a computer.

I'm sure the other video conferencing technologies are similar.

I would advise against use of Zoom if you're discussing anything of a sensitive nature from speaking to people involved in industry. Most of the big private companies are using likes of Teams. A lot of Public Sector organisations/ departments are using Zoom, surprise surprise.

timmy_mallet

Turkish1 wrote: »

Maybe give the guards the right to just come in and search your house top to bottom at the drop of a hat without any reason - just cause, why not. Sure there could be people hiding under the beds

Sure if you've nothing to hide, what's the problem?

Limpy

theballz wrote: »

Where do people think we really went wrong with this?

Paul Murphy highlighted meet factory conditions in March and the Gov didn't do anything. Simple

MickeyLeari

[Deleted User] wrote: »

https://twitter.com/BloombergAsia/status/1292927914409963523?s=20

Someone with the same opinion.

Does the government think we can SD for 2 years?

Another lockdown and hopefully the penny will drop with govt/health officials our border controls were the problem and they will apologise to us for squandering our good position in June.

It is a legitimate position to have in respect to closing border but we all know the political sensitivity In respect to NI and our position in the EU with the U.K. leaving.

But can you please be up front that the recent increases in cases are not related to travel.

You can do all you want about travel but if the internal risks are not managed we will not be able to eliminate the virus and the damage to our economy will be far disproportionate to the risk of the virus which can be managed through more conventional domestic measures.

ChikiChiki

theballz wrote: »

Where do people think we really went wrong with this?

Meat factories.

HSA being lazy pricks. Read one report where they were reluctant to send nspectors into the meat factories because of the risk they would catch Covid. Its the inspectors job to ensure they are adhering to the guidelines.

Ffs - you couldn't make it up. It really goes to show how quickly things can run south.

I think there is a lot more than meets the eye with the factories.

Stheno

Stheno wrote: »

keeping borders open
Not protecting nursing homes
No enforced quarantine

Could add speeding up the phases also.

ACitizenErased

Stheno wrote: »

keeping borders open
Not protecting nursing homes
No enforced quarantine

The lack of action on travel is genuinely shocking considering how much they go on about numbers. There’s just as much a possibility of community transmission from people returning from abroad as there is from people who stayed here.

Limpy

timmy_mallet wrote: »

Sure if you've nothing to hide, what's the problem?

Where do u live? If you've nothing to hide let us all walk around for a gawk.

hmmm

Turkish1 wrote: »

But what's the plan here - the vaccine could quite realistically be another ,12+months away (if we ever get a vaccine). Have we another year+ of this jumping in and out of full/partial lockdown/restrictions.

Yes unfortunately. And the government hasn't made that clear to people. I don't know why - perhaps they think people will give up if it is too far away. I think the opposite myself, you have to tell people the truth difficult and all as it is.

We should know in the next 2 or 3 months if the vaccines are succeeding in their trials - but they would still need to be manufactured. Assuming that is good news, we'll at least know how this ends.

WoollyRedHat

Why don't they make masks in all open workplaces mandatory? They also need to be doing way more (surprise) spot checks of businesses to ensure compliance on ongoing basis. My place of work hasn't being checked once since reopening despite all the structures they have in place.

Rambling Man

Stheno wrote: »

keeping borders open
Not protecting nursing homes
No enforced quarantine

Hoping for the best with meat and food production plants rather than doing stringent checks and risk assessmemts.

timmy_mallet

Limpy wrote: »

Where do u live? If you've nothing to hide let us all walk around for a gawk.

Well the sarcastic tone was lost, I was agreeing with you.

Turkish1

timmy_mallet wrote: »

Sure if you've nothing to hide, what's the problem?

Please please please tell me that's sarcasm

Edit: thankfully it was

landofthetree

landofthetree wrote: »

We were down to around 300 active cases at one stage.

Now up to 2200+.

We should have went for 0 cases.

I suspect the UK and Ireland will end up going for a zero strategy as we face into the winter.

It is clear as mud. Unless politicians are holding this back from us or thinking it will just go away. All scientists saying we have to do this. They are the experts. Why are the politicians not listening to the experts?

mean gene

Making it up as they go along rubbish government

hmmm

theballz wrote: »

Where do people think we really went wrong with this?

There's no "wrong". It's a dangerous virus which spreads rapidly. We're trying to control it with primitive tools until we develop vaccines and treatments.

If this had been a hundred years ago we'd have large numbers of dead and injured by now, and the pandemic would be over.

Doctors room ghost

Stheno wrote: »

keeping borders open
Not protecting nursing homes
No enforced quarantine

Cheltenham going ahead and lads traveling over and coming back sick

Always_Running

Can someone remind me what was the median age of cases during the peak of this virus on this island in April?

timmy_mallet

hmmm wrote: »

There's no "wrong". It's a dangerous virus which spreads rapidly. We're trying to control it with primitive tools until we develop vaccines and treatments.

If this had been a hundred years ago we'd have large numbers of dead and injured by now, and the pandemic would be over.

And in this case we will saved a few thousand people and plunged the world into 40% unemployment and all of the problems that will create, but society has decided they prefer the former.

ChikiChiki

Doctors room ghost wrote: »

Cheltenham going ahead and lads traveling over and coming back sick

Yeah but that was all sorted. This is wave 2. We have to look at what went wrong since early June when restrictions were eased.

Arghus

Lundstram wrote: »

No we wouldn't, did you actually read the post? The virus was imported. Quench it with a hard lockdown for 20 days - month then seal borders.

This flip flopping bullsh1t of restrictions and local lockdowns is just kicking the can down the road. We are a long way away from a vaccine, throw in another year for each and every one of us to actually get it. Pie in the sky stuff thinking a vaccine will come soon and save us all.

20 days wouldn't do it, you can't quench this thing that quickly no matter how hard you lock down.

First of all you'd still be finding cases for a period of weeks after locking down. Which of itself would take longer than 20 days. Then once you were down to zero, you'd have to maintain that level of lockdown for one incubation period - even perhaps 2 periods - to be totally sure that you were free. You are probably looking at about 6 weeks if everything went perfectly.

coastwatch

Always_Running wrote: »

Can someone remind me what was the median age of cases during the peak of this virus on this island in April?

52-53?

An Ciarraioch

Always_Running wrote: »

Can someone remind me what was the median age of cases during the peak of this virus on this island in April?

The median age of cases was always around the mid-forties, it was only the averages for deaths that were generally in the low-eighties.

caveat emptor

MickeyLeari wrote: »

It is a legitimate position to have in respect to closing border but we all know the political sensitivity In respect to NI and our position in the EU with the U.K. leaving.

But can you please be up front that the recent increases in cases are not related to travel.

You can do all you want about travel but if the internal risks are not managed we will not be able to eliminate the virus and the damage to our economy will be far disproportionate to the risk of the virus which can be managed through more conventional domestic measures.

If you can look at this chart see how quick they got it under control (y-axis is date) x-axis is different provinces.

Country of a billion people have less cases.

Arghus

Stheno wrote: »

keeping borders open
Not protecting nursing homes
No enforced quarantine

All of this is true, as well as taking the eye off the ball in relation to meat factories and Direct Provision centres, but, also people have to take personal responsibility as well.

All of the reasons you've outlined are valid, but they're also things that are easy to point to - because they involve failings on the part of the state or other authorities, it absolves "us" - wider society - of any blame - but people have also flaunted regulations and advice so not every piece of blame can be laid at the feet of the authorities. For all their failings, a lot comes down to the actions of individuals too.

hmmm

timmy_mallet wrote: »

And in this case we will saved a few thousand people and plunged the world into 40% unemployment and all of the problems that will create, but society has decided they prefer the former.

We don't know what the death toll will be if we let it run, and if the hospitals become overwhelmed (which would happen very quickly). We can lower the mortality rate now with top-class ICU care and drugs. Covid sends a large number of people to hospital - most of them we can treat easily with the right equipment if we have it. We also don't know what the long-term impacts are on people from infection.

I'm not an expert on this, but there is a clear consensus from those who are that this is a dangerous virus, and cannot be allowed spread unchecked.