Covid 19 Part XXI-27,908 in ROI (1,777 deaths) 6,647 in NI (559 deaths)(22/08)Read OP

ChikiChiki

Our surge is being reported by global news outlets this morning.

The 2.30am indo release specifically has the words "Nation slides towards lockdown". If that's not buttering up the public for what's coming I don't know what is.

What a shambles.

caveat emptor

Spain has 10 times the incidence of Italy. That's pretty shocking.
The doubling time there is 20 days (7 day rolling). It has doubled steadily for the past 60 days.
One more doubling and they are back at the height of the first wave in terms of case count. They are probably picking up more cases etc through better testing but be in no doubt it's quite serious there.

We are a long way off that. I'm skeptical about schools but hopefully numbers start coming down.

stephenjmcd

Myramar wrote: »

Can you explain?

You seem to be questioning the statistics produced by the Dept of Health and the HSE.
Do you Think they are lies?.
These are the statistics from the same sources that you reproduce here on a daily basis and that represent the basis for your "informed opinions".
Are they solid statistics when you like the numbers but become "Lies" when they disagree with your narrative?

Well seeing as there was 31 postive swabs through the system yesterday not 190 and a large number of cases not announced Sunday / Monday then yeah yesterdays cases don't equal those announced as was discussed here on Sunday and Monday

stephenjmcd

Tánaiste Leo Varadkar criticised his Fianna Fáil colleagues for rushing through the new measures without debating it at a Cabinet committee meeting with public health experts.

Several sources at the meeting said the Fine Gael leader said: "If we keep doing business like this, we won't be doing business for very long,"

Mr Varadkar was described as "furious" by one Cabinet source who said the party was "growing tired with the bad news constantly being announced under Fianna Fáil".

Frustrations have also been raised among Fine Gael ­ministers over the severity of the advice given by Nphet on the virus.

"You'd need a certain set of skills to deal with Nphet because anyone who can make logic of their recommendations needs to be a genius," a minister said.

"We are implementing the most draconian restrictions in Europe," another minister said.

https://m.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/no-end-in-sight-as-nation-slides-towards-lockdown-39461331.html

grind gremlin

fritzelly wrote: »

I would like to know the reasoning behind this - it is not a one off
Are they verifying they are not double counted positives? Well the numbers always seem to match up after a few days
Is it a case of the Glynn has to sign off on the reported figures - well this hasn't just happened at the weekends
I'm trying to think of reasons as to the delay in reporting cases and coming up with nada
It all seems a bit weird we get a low reported case number then the next day in the hundreds, then we get a low case number and the next day in the hundreds again
We've had less than 100 cases per day on average the past week but 2 days of massive numbers reported (plus add in that some of these positive cases may even be historic as in not the past week but weeks ago)

Are they only reporting cases once contact tracing has been complete? They seem to announce them and also whether they are direct contacts / community transmission etc. Maybe less contact tracing at the weekends?

caveat emptor

Deaths lag cases by a month. Age is a huge factor but it takes 3 weeks median time for case to death. Add into the mix our long period for registering deaths
and it'll take much longer for them to filter through.
The same debate was had in Florida.
It started with young but eventually moved to old.

The fatality is much lower in younger people, so we see case numbers increase without necessarily immediate increase in deaths

According to the meta-analysis ages 0-34 have a fatality 70 times less than ages 55-64

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v3

stephenjmcd

15th September at the earliest for new Garda powers and that hinges on the AG advice.

https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1295955667279282177?s=19

Oranage2

FG looking like heroes now. This was so poorly communicated last night which was restrict your movement and restrict the amount of people you come in contact with.

How can people believe more than 15 people watching a match is a problem when all we hear is about meat factories having 100s of cases.

I can see their point that if a meat factory worker goes to a match he could potentially infect 100s, this way he'll only be able to infect 14 possible others.

But that doesn't address the main problem which are the factories and people don't believe just testing workers in all the 100s of factories is good enough or severe enough after they basically shut down 3 counties.

I really don't know what think about this, biggest question is will people comply? The majority have behaved well but probably stretched some guidelines a little but will this announcement put people back in check?

caveat emptor

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Tánaiste Leo Varadkar criticised his Fianna Fáil colleagues for rushing through the new measures without debating it at a Cabinet committee meeting with public health experts.

Several sources at the meeting said the Fine Gael leader said: "If we keep doing business like this, we won't be doing business for very long,"

Mr Varadkar was described as "furious" by one Cabinet source who said the party was "growing tired with the bad news constantly being announced under Fianna Fáil".

Frustrations have also been raised among Fine Gael ­ministers over the severity of the advice given by Nphet on the virus.

"You'd need a certain set of skills to deal with Nphet because anyone who can make logic of their recommendations needs to be a genius," a minister said.

"We are implementing the most draconian restrictions in Europe," another minister said.

https://m.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/no-end-in-sight-as-nation-slides-towards-lockdown-39461331.html

Leo is such a sleeveen to be putting politics ahead of the health of the nation.

The are going to pull the rug from under MM when the cases are high enough or when schools have to close.

Undermining public health experts to boot.

I'll never vote for them again. Disgraceful carryon. They can have their fight to the death after this ****e is done.

Yesterday.....

caveat emptor wrote: »

They are clearly dividing people to rule them.
......

MM is a muppet and is playing into a trap laid by Leo. The fact he is playing politics at a time like this is disgusting. MM has picked the hill he is going to die in on in the shape of schools reopening. After all he is a teacher and cares about their development. His position however is untenable. You can’t simultaneously try to please vested interests and get schools open.

They’ll open, then they’ll close and there will be an election.
At which point Leo and Simon who threw a jerry wrench in the decision making process will ride in on their white horses and save us from calamity by standing up to big business and implementing zero covid.

Leo is playing chess , MM is playing checkers.
If anything like above transpires I’ll never vote for a single FG politician in my life again. MM doesn’t have a hope.

The_Brood

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Tánaiste Leo Varadkar criticised his Fianna Fáil colleagues for rushing through the new measures without debating it at a Cabinet committee meeting with public health experts.

Several sources at the meeting said the Fine Gael leader said: "If we keep doing business like this, we won't be doing business for very long,"

Mr Varadkar was described as "furious" by one Cabinet source who said the party was "growing tired with the bad news constantly being announced under Fianna Fáil".

Frustrations have also been raised among Fine Gael ­ministers over the severity of the advice given by Nphet on the virus.

"You'd need a certain set of skills to deal with Nphet because anyone who can make logic of their recommendations needs to be a genius," a minister said.

"We are implementing the most draconian restrictions in Europe," another minister said.

https://m.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/no-end-in-sight-as-nation-slides-towards-lockdown-39461331.html

When Leo is the voice of reason you know the world has officially flipped upside down.

A political system that requires coalitions to function is a failed one leading to the chaos we have now. There needs to be several rounds of voting until people agree on a majority, however long that takes.

leavingirl

No longer a conspiracy theory. Hitler would be proud!

https://www.thejournal.ie/australia-covid-vaccine-5179559-Aug2020/?utm_source=twitter_short

yer man!

caveat emptor wrote: »

Deaths lag cases by a month. Age is a huge factor but it takes 3 weeks median time for case to death. Add into the mix our long period for registering deaths
and it'll take much longer for them to filter through.
The same debate was had in Florida.
It started with young but eventually moved to old.



https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v3

We also have a potential mutation on the cards that is possibly causing a surge but lower death rates worldwide

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-mutation/infectious-covid-19-mutation-may-be-a-good-thing-says-disease-expert-idUSKCN25E08Y

iamwhoiam

leavingirl wrote: »

No longer a conspiracy theory. Hitler would be proud!

https://www.thejournal.ie/australia-covid-vaccine-5179559-Aug2020/?utm_source=twitter_short

Maybe they should have given them and option so .Either get a vaccine or stay in your own home and no visitors . Use No school , no creche , no restaraunts and dont go to work or visit anyone

Hurrache

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Glynn is the face of NPHET

That meeting shouldnt take more than 15 mins if the data that the decision making is based on is accurate

That meeting shouldn't take place, end of.

caveat emptor

Most kids don't get sick but cases are rising and hospitalisations are rising in US.
Shouldn't be ignored and safety needs to be paramount with schools situation.

https://twitter.com/cgtnamerica/status/1295839136390057984?s=20

RollieFingers

So what time does the civil unrest kick off at?

lee_baby_simms

caveat emptor wrote: »

Deaths lag cases by a month. Age is a huge factor but it takes 3 weeks median time for case to death. Add into the mix our long period for registering deaths
and it'll take much longer for them to filter through.
The same debate was had in Florida.
It started with young but eventually moved to old.

The issue I would have with this kind of transposition is that its based on the assumption that the first wave of the virus in Florida with a different climate and age demographic will replicated as a second wave in Ireland. Different climate and different at risk population due to the virus already impacting months previously.

While I believe that we need to prepare for the possibility of a some kind of second wave if we look at combined cases/deaths across all of Europe its clear that the virus is not behaving the same way it did at the start of the year.

stephenjmcd

Oranage2 wrote: »

FG looking like heroes now. This was so poorly communicated last night which was restrict your movement and restrict the amount of people you come in contact with.

How can people believe more than 15 people watching a match is a problem when all we hear is about meat factories having 100s of cases.

I can see their point that if a meat factory worker goes to a match he could potentially infect 100s, this way he'll only be able to infect 14 possible others.

But that doesn't address the main problem which are the factories and people don't believe just testing workers in all the 100s of factories is good enough or severe enough after they basically shut down 3 counties.

I really don't know what think about this, biggest question is will people comply? The majority have behaved well but probably stretched some guidelines a little but will this announcement put people back in check?

You know what I've rarely agreed with some of your points made on here but that post is spot on.

The communication was absolutely awful, your right the main problem wasn't addressed.

The likes of the matches I think is to be seen to be doing something. I cant go to a match and be well spaced out in an outdoor setting but can go to an indoor setting such as a wedding and be with 50 people.

Compliance who knows ? Even in my own family people who've gone along wtih whatever restrictions were put our way were questioning yesterdays announcement

Doctor Jimbob

caveat emptor wrote: »

Most kids don't get sick but cases are rising and hospitalisations are rising in US.
Shouldn't be ignored and safety needs to be paramount with schools situation.

https://twitter.com/cgtnamerica/status/1295839136390057984?s=20

Unfortunately it seems we're prioritising schools ahead of all else at the moment.

Hurrache

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

Unfortunately it seems we're prioritising schools ahead of all else at the moment.

What kind of maniacal country prioritises kids.

caveat emptor

lee_baby_simms wrote: »

The issue I would have with this kind of transposition is that its based on the assumption that the first wave of the virus in Florida with a different climate and age demographic will replicated as a second wave in Ireland. Different climate and different at risk population due to the virus already impacting months previously.

While I believe that we need to prepare for the possibility of a some kind of second wave if we look at combined cases/deaths across all of Europe its clear that the virus is not behaving the same way it did at the start of the year.

Yeah that be because a younger demographic is contracting it. But as with everywhere in the world we don't live in isolation so it takes some time to spread to older generations.

Hopefully the continued measures will be enough to stop it here. I wouldn't be so sure about Spain though. Crazy numbers there now.

Here's the guy who did the analysis. Very good on lots of things imo. Explanation too.

https://twitter.com/zorinaq/status/1295817781498089472?s=20

KaneToad

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

Unfortunately it seems we're prioritising schools ahead of all else at the moment.

Do you not think schools deserve prioritisation?

Doctor Jimbob

Hurrache wrote: »

What kind of maniacal country prioritises kids.

I thought the priority at the moment was keeping the disease under control? Opening schools is going to set us right back in that regard.

I understand that education is important, but it's not right to keep imposing restrictions on other parts of society in order to open schools, which seems to be the case at the moment.

gifted

KaneToad wrote: »

Do you not think schools deserve prioritisation?

The children and teachers safety deserve priority

prunudo

I just don't get the logic that its okay to have 25-30 pupils in a stuffy classroom for 5-6 hrs a day or 50 people at a wedding but 20 people watching a match for a couple of hours outside isn't.

Doctor Jimbob

KaneToad wrote: »

Do you not think schools deserve prioritisation?

I think coming up with a solution to continuing children's education deserves prioritisation. I don't think opening schools in anything close to a normal way when you're trying to contain an infectious disease is wise.

MickeyLeari

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Tánaiste Leo Varadkar criticised his Fianna Fáil colleagues for rushing through the new measures without debating it at a Cabinet committee meeting with public health experts.

Several sources at the meeting said the Fine Gael leader said: "If we keep doing business like this, we won't be doing business for very long,"

Mr Varadkar was described as "furious" by one Cabinet source who said the party was "growing tired with the bad news constantly being announced under Fianna Fáil".

Frustrations have also been raised among Fine Gael ­ministers over the severity of the advice given by Nphet on the virus.

"You'd need a certain set of skills to deal with Nphet because anyone who can make logic of their recommendations needs to be a genius," a minister said.

"We are implementing the most draconian restrictions in Europe," another minister said.

https://m.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/no-end-in-sight-as-nation-slides-towards-lockdown-39461331.html

The Tanaiste was right. Yesterday was a mess - did the Minister for Health insist on a full Cabinet meeting? Why did the Taoiseach agree? Did he consult with his coalition partners? We have a new Minister for Health and at the same time we have an acting Secretary General in Health. Transition is required in normal times but this is nuts.

I have raised issues before about Governance and this confirms that the bypassing of normal Cabinet rules would lead to a crisis. Seemingly there was a good relationship between Holohan and Varadkar previously which ensured things worked to the extent that there was a largely united front but continuation of this will lead to a new election

mean gene

Mickey Martin lives up the road from me there I have to say he's the most uninspiring leader we've ever had in my memory and he hasn't done 1 good thing since being appointed

Oranage2

KaneToad wrote: »

Do you not think schools deserve prioritisation?

I think they do need to go back. But not all the classes. They could let class 1,2 and 6 go back in primary and grades 3,5 and 6 for secondary. That means less school users using public transport and more space in schools. If after a month there aren't any cases we could let the rest of the primary and secondary students go back, then mid to late October let university students go back.

We're putting all in eggs in the school basket but I've no idea why, are the government trying to make omelets or quiches?

The plan is so short term, open schools, hope for the best and if it's alright then reduce the restrictions. They've no idea how to let schools go back safely and no idea what to do if the school plan fails.

Hurrache

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

I thought the priority at the moment was keeping the disease under control? Opening schools is going to set us right back in that regard.

I understand that education is important, but it's not right to keep imposing restrictions on other parts of society in order to open schools, which seems to be the case at the moment.

Reality is that kids will have been mixing it up all summer anyway, either through out playing together, summer camps or sports training. I imagine the lead up to schools opening is to limit the number of community cases so that there'll be less to spread once they come together in school again.

plodder

Hurrache wrote: »

What kind of maniacal country prioritises kids.

Indeed, who would prioritise children's education over house parties ... though there's been a few voices on the radio this morning questioning restrictions on house parties.

The Dail needs to be recalled to pass legislation to enforce restrictions on gatherings in houses. That must be obvious now. Otherwise, it looks like the people are doing repeatedly what is asked of them, but politicians and the state are failing repeatedly.

is_that_so

plodder wrote: »

Indeed, who would prioritise children's education over house parties ... though there's been a few voices on the radio this morning questioning restrictions on house parties.

The Dail needs to be recalled to pass legislation to enforce restrictions on gatherings in houses. That must be obvious now. Otherwise, it looks like the people are doing repeatedly what is asked of them, but politicians and the state are failing repeatedly.

They've done their work via the emergency legislation back in March. It'll be done by an SI from the minister pending review by AG.

Doctor Jimbob

Hurrache wrote: »

Reality is that kids will have been mixing it up all summer anyway, either through out playing together, summer camps or sports training. I imagine the lead up to schools opening is to limit the number of community cases so that there'll be less to spread once they come together in school again.

Out playing together and going to camps is completely different from being stuck in a classroom though. I assume you realise how similar your argument is to the much ridiculed pubs/house parties discussion?

KaneToad

prunudo wrote: »

I just don't get the logic that its okay to have 25-30 pupils in a stuffy classroom for 5-6 hrs a day or 50 people at a wedding but 20 people watching a match for a couple of hours outside isn't.

Restrictions on match spectators is purely because spectators aren't trusted to do it properly. It presents opportunity for congregation before /after the event for diverse groups. Its an easy move to ban it as the financial implications are negligible. It's the low hanging fruit.

Doctor Jimbob

plodder wrote: »

Indeed, who would prioritise children's education over house parties ... though there's been a few voices on the radio this morning questioning restrictions on house parties.

The Dail needs to be recalled to pass legislation to enforce restrictions on gatherings in houses. That must be obvious now. Otherwise, it looks like the people are doing repeatedly what is asked of them, but politicians and the state are failing repeatedly.

So we need to pass legislation to reduce the risk of 10 people gathering in a room, so we can continue to open schools where we'll have 30 people in a room?

Where's the logic here? I'm not disputing that education is more important, it absolutely is, but if the former is unsafe then the latter is certainly unsafe?

is_that_so

Hurrache wrote: »

Reality is that kids will have been mixing it up all summer anyway, either through out playing together, summer camps or sports training. I imagine the lead up to schools opening is to limit the number of community cases so that there'll be less to spread once they come together in school again.

Pretty much where we were with pubs a few weeks ago. Nobody will remember these measures but there'll be a long memory of schools not reopening. I fully expect some cases out of schools but if they've worked it out properly in individual schools that should be minimised.

Doctors room ghost

Leo will be wheeled out next to calm the nation with a Harry Potter poem or a song off the lord of the rings.
What a time to be alive

prunudo

KaneToad wrote: »

Restrictions on match spectators is purely because spectators aren't trusted to do it properly. It presents opportunity for congregation before /after the event for diverse groups. Its an easy move to ban it as the financial implications are negligible. It's the low hanging fruit.

Clutching at straws to suggest this is where the spread is coming from. And by attacking the low hanging fruit with seemingly nonsensical restrictions you are at serious risk of losing your audience.

Hurrache

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

Out playing together and going to camps is completely different from being stuck in a classroom though. I assune you realise how similar your argument is to the much ridiculed pubs/house parties discussion?

You're missing the point. If there's relatively few cases in the community and no community spread so far, when the schools open, there'll be less chance of anything being spread within them too.

It's nothing like the house party discussion.

is_that_so

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

So we need to pass legislation to reduce the risk of 10 people gathering in a room, so we can continue to open schools where we'll have 30 people in a room?

Where's the logic here? I'm not disputing that education is more important, it absolutely is, but if the former is unsafe then the latter is certainly unsafe?

It's controlled V an uncontrolled environment.

plodder

is_that_so wrote: »

They've done their work via the emergency legislation back in March. It'll be done by an SI from the minister pending review by AG.

Does that specifically cover the power to enter a dwelling? There seems to be some question over that given how strong the constitutional protection is.

Doctor Jimbob

Hurrache wrote: »

You're missing the point. If there's relatively few cases in the community and no community spread so far, when the schools open, there'll be less chance of anything being spread within them too.

It's nothing like the house party discussion.

Less chance, but still a strong chance. I can only speak for where I work, but every year it's the people with young kids in school who get sick all the time. Once a disease gets into a school it spreads like wildfire.

Kids are playing together anyway, why not open the schools vs. People are having house parties anyway, why not open the pubs. Its the exact same logic.

is_that_so

prunudo wrote: »

Clutching at straws to suggest this is where the spread is coming from. And by attacking the low hanging fruit with seemingly nonsensical restrictions you are at serious risk of losing your audience.

The spread is still limited, this is a prophylactic measure to help it stay that way. Schools mean up to 1m+ more moving about daily.

is_that_so

plodder wrote: »

Does that specifically cover the power to enter a dwelling? There seems to be some question over that given how strong the constitutional protection is.

Yeah that's the AG part of it. I imagine evidence of some sort may be required. The thrust of the approach IMO is really to get people to police themselves, as we've largely done so far.

Hurrache

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

Less chance, but still a strong chance. I can only speak for where I work, but every year it's the people with young kids in school who get sick all the time. Once a disease gets into a school it spreads like wildfire.

Kids are playing together anyway, why not open the schools vs. People are having house parties anyway, why not open the pubs. Its the exact same logic.

You're preaching to the converted, I was the sponge for any bug or virus entering our house using the kids as a means of transport. Thankfully not so much of an issue anymore as they got older.

The difference between schools/pubs is that kids will play in their own area, on their own greens, train with their own teams who for the most part are neighbours and school mates anyway. It's essentially a big community bubble.

Pubs, you have people coming from everywhere and essentially communities mixing.

stephenjmcd

is_that_so wrote: »

They've done their work via the emergency legislation back in March. It'll be done by an SI from the minister pending review by AG.

Appearently not this time

"New laws will now be drafted in consultation with the Attorney General and will require approval by the Dáil, which is not due to meet until 15 September."

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0819/1159959-covid-19-enforcement-ag/

munsterlegend

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Appearently not this time

"New laws will now be drafted in consultation with the Attorney General and will require approval by the Dáil, which is not due to meet until 15 September."

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0819/1159959-covid-19-enforcement-ag/

Going into peoples homes and stopping parties require further legislation given the constitutional issues.

stephenjmcd

munsterlegend wrote: »

Going into peoples homes and stopping parties require further legislation given the constitutional issues.

Yup as mentioned it now requires advice from the AG

is_that_so

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

Less chance, but still a strong chance. I can only speak for where I work, but every year it's the people with young kids in school who get sick all the time. Once a disease gets into a school it spreads like wildfire.

Kids are playing together anyway, why not open the schools vs. People are having house parties anyway, why not open the pubs. Its the exact same logic.

It's not really the same, pubs you can predict and control and schools but not a party where alcohol is at the heart of it and you've no idea who's coming and what they'll do.

polesheep

Goldengirl wrote: »

What do you mean, managed? Many die from their illness once they end up that ill.

Many people die from illness every day. Once the hospitals are not overwhelmed and people die for want of treatment then that is all that matters.