Covid 19 Part XXI-27,908 in ROI (1,777 deaths) 6,647 in NI (559 deaths)(22/08)Read OP

Eod100

seamus wrote: »

It's not really "leaks".

"Public health experts" can mean members of NPHET, or a professor of immunology in Limerick who's been asked for a comment by a reporter, but has no input into public policy.

It's leaks from Ministers based on issues which came up with discussions with NPHET. Article posted few posts up which gives full background.

seamus

Drumpot wrote: »

But 30 children in a class/indoors for hours is not the same as one or two or three children playing together. It’s not even the same as a sleepover (although we don’t do them). It’s a completely different level of factors. I know one of my Children’s friends is going home to wales for a week or two, I’m not so sure they will be isolating when they get back and I will be interested to see if they inform the school they were away.

I'm genuinely less concerned about the classroom. At least in there is a relatively controlled environment with a fixed number of kids, and a cursory attempt at distancing.

And there are protocols in place; a kid pops up with a runny nose and the school will isolate them even if the parents don't care.

Outside, there are kids popping up anywhere and everywhere. A different combination of local kids every day. No idea where they've been or who they've been in contact with. If one of them is let out with a bit of a cough, they'll be coughing all over the other kids unchecked.

I do get the "30 kids in a room" argument, but I do, hand-on-heart, feel like it's better - or at least no worse - than what the vast, vast majority of kids have been doing for the last 4 months anyway.

Non solum non ambulabit

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Some good news....makes you wonder should we just let it fly the sooner everyone gets a tiny dose the better...

The Irish Times: Studies show positive signs of strong, lasting Covid-19 immunity.
https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/health-family/studies-show-positive-signs-of-strong-lasting-covid-19-immunity-1.4332233?localLinksEnabled=false

Good news. Very interesting article. Thanks for posting.

Hurrache

WoollyRedHat wrote: »

Why was Stephen Donnelly going on about trampolines last night? He's about as useful as a broken one.

It was a mad interview

https://twitter.com/EoinSheahan/status/1296207854211338241

robbiezero

caveat emptor wrote: »

Did they not say it was about people meeting up before and after in large groups. They said clusters can be traced back to this.
The sport itself and the training is probably low risk if togging in and out managed correctly.

I don't think that's good enough for the massive sledgehammer they have take to outdoor activities which has impacted so many people.
Far more detail required.
Where are large groups meeting before and after matches?

yourdeadwright

seamus wrote: »

I'm genuinely less concerned about the classroom. At least in there is a relatively controlled environment with a fixed number of kids, and a cursory attempt at distancing.

And there are protocols in place; a kid pops up with a runny nose and the school will isolate them even if the parents don't care.

Outside, there are kids popping up anywhere and everywhere. A different combination of local kids every day. No idea where they've been or who they've been in contact with. If one of them is let out with a bit of a cough, they'll be coughing all over the other kids unchecked.

I do get the "30 kids in a room" argument, but I do, hand-on-heart, feel like it's better - or at least no worse - than what the vast, vast majority of kids have been doing for the last 4 months anyway.

When you said kids its such a broad statement,

Older "kids " is one thing but in playschools and junior infants with classes of 30 its going to be next to impossible for a teacher to keep them apart all day ,

caveat emptor

caveat emptor wrote: »

Did they not say it was about people meeting up before and after in large groups. They said clusters can be traced back to this.
The sport itself and the training is probably low risk if togging in and out managed correctly.

Groups are still going to meet up. The matches are the excuse. Weddings?

robbiezero

It would be interesting to see how many requests for contact tracing the GAA have received.
In Tipperary it is 0.

Non solum non ambulabit

Blondini wrote: »

Wow, that's news to me. Someone must be taking my children while I'm not looking.

This is the fcucking level of stupidity you're dealing with here folks.

Your children may not be but the huge majority of kids are playing away with other kids.

Newbienoob

Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »

Your children may not be but the huge majority of kids are playing away with other kids.

Are the children sitting in groups of 30 indoors for 6-8 hours a day? Not comparable.

caveat emptor

robbiezero wrote: »

I don't think that's good enough for the massive sledgehammer they have take to outdoor activities which has impacted so many people.
Far more detail required.
Where are large groups meeting before and after matches?

I’d agree. I think they could have banned spectators or kept to a minimum or something. It seems to me the public health officials said the probability of schools opening without major outbreaks is very low unless additional measures taken.

Gov then just looked for easy targets instead of actually trying to get it under control. They left church and weddings alone because it’s constitutionally tricky. Anything involving enforcement like fines etc is also tricky.

Don’t know what they are at to be honest. Undermining the public health experts is a joke.
People are saying that they only consider health but it’s known that economy falls off a cliff of infections rise.

Non solum non ambulabit

Newbienoob wrote: »

Are the children sitting in groups of 30 indoors for 6-8 hours a day? Not comparable.

Comparable to what? I said most kids are playing away. Don't argue points I didn't make. Thanks.

Looney1

First time in a while I have seen the word national lockdown been mentioned this morning. Scary

snotboogie

seamus wrote: »

It's not really "leaks".

"Public health experts" can mean members of NPHET, or a professor of immunology in Limerick who's been asked for a comment by a reporter, but has no input into public policy.

Academics are very much all about "lock everything down until its gone", and keep pushing this line. Because they are disconnected from the more complex wider world. Professors in universities get paid regardless of what's happening.

Prof. Tomás Ryan has been banging on about zero Covid and an all-island approach for months now. He's academically right; it's the logical approach.

But his insistence on talking about it demonstrates how separated he is from the economic and political reality. What should be done and what can be done are two very different things and continually banging on about what should be done, doesn't make it more likely.

This is what's going on when the media talk about "second lockdown". If cases continue to rise, it's what should be done. It's what the academics say will help. But it won't be done. Because it's can't be. A second lockdown would be economic collapse. All of those businesses that are still now struggling to reopen, would have to call it a day permanently. Everyone who went onto PUP and back off it again, would be back. Permanently.

Inside a week we'd have a million people on the actual dole and no jobs to return them to after lockdown.

Any lockdown measures we return to, will end up being purely social in nature and little else. Maybe a "stay in your county" rule, but with an exception for going to hotels or B&Bs.

What we need are long-term rules for reducing mixing, and Garda powers to enforce them, such as the power to disperse house parties and large groups outdoors.

Except the tweet says: Public health experts have privately warned the Govt that the country may have to return to a full lockdown if the increase in Covid-19 cases continues

Non solum non ambulabit

Looney1 wrote: »

First time in a while I have seen the word national lockdown been mentioned this morning. Scary

With 16 people in hospital it would be impossible to justify a national lockdown. IMO people and businesses won't not stand for it.

KrustyUCC

Hurrache wrote: »

Seriously, get real and stop digging. You have absolutely no right to demand a meeting with such an employee.

And like I said which you somehow missed, they did get a public answer.

What public answer was that?

Glynn has not given the evidence used to come to the decision

That should be very easy to give

X amount of clusters
X amount of cases
X amount of cases from pubs after matches etc

Much easier to bring people along with you by being open

caveat emptor

yourdeadwright wrote: »

When you said kids its such a broad statement,

Older "kids " is one thing but in playschools and junior infants with classes of 30 its going to be next to impossible for a teacher to keep them apart all day ,

Why would the GAA be contacted? There are privacy issues here and for GDPR etc so people are contacted directly. Maybe someone who had it wouldn’t want his/her club or team to know because they’d be worried might not get game etc. if people unfairly thought their aerobic fitness was affected.

Eod100

Does this mean 50 people can be indoors but only 15 outdoors? Am I missing something? Surely people will congregate after and before indoor setting just the same..? https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1296374834012790784?s=19

KrustyUCC

Eod100 wrote: »

Not sure point of leaks like this to the media. https://twitter.com/PatLeahyIT/status/1296360220382367750?s=19

So much for a more nuanced approach

A full lockdown makes absolutely no sense for many counties where case levels are very low

seamus

yourdeadwright wrote: »

Older "kids " is one thing but in playschools and junior infants with classes of 30 its going to be next to impossible for a teacher to keep them apart all day ,

I don't think so. Playschools tend towards smaller numbers anyway. They're grouped into pods (16 or less, IIRC) and mix with nobody else in the building.

In my kids' school even the Junior Infants classes have always been separated into tables of 6 or 8. The only difference now is that they won't randomly rotate them every 6 weeks.

Anyway, this is the wrong thread for this. I may be proven wrong, but I don't feel that the concerns about primary schools in particular are as serious as some would make them out to be.

snotboogie wrote: »

Except the tweet says: Public health experts have privately warned the Govt that the country may have to return to a full lockdown if the increase in Covid-19 cases continues

"Privately", meaning not on Twitter or via statement. It gives the impressions of a high-ranking civil servant in the HSE having an off-record chat with a journalist. But this kind of wording is a common trick used to make it sound like a journalist has better sources than they actually do,

If you look at the rest of those tweets though, they downplay what Pat Leahy is actually claiming. "Second lockdown" has been discussed informally. That is, in general talks the topic of another lockdown has been suggested a few times. I'd be shocked if it hadn't.

Pat Leahy it trying to make it sound like NPHET want a second lockdown ASAP but the government are refusing.

is_that_so

caveat emptor wrote: »

I’d agree. I think they could have banned spectators or kept to a minimum or something. It seems to me the public health officials said the probability of schools opening without major outbreaks is very low unless additional measures taken.

Gov then just looked for easy targets instead of actually trying to get it under control. They left church and weddings alone because it’s constitutionally tricky. Anything involving enforcement like fines etc is also tricky.

Don’t know what they are at to be honest. Undermining the public health experts is a joke.
People are saying that they only consider health but it’s known that economy falls off a cliff of infections rise.

It seems that we have got caught with the holiday cases that everyone else has. In our case it's more about greater socialising than travel imports. It's a "tweak" aimed at reducing that possibility so that we don't find ourselves being rolled back to where the midlands are now. As you've said yourself it's the schools and trying to make sure there is less of the virus floating about when they go back.

s1ippy

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Massive leap there to jump to four times more children in Irish classroom.

Latest OECD data for Finland is 19.6 and Sweden 19.5, and for Ireland its 24 to 25. Not great but not massively different. Also, I have yet to find anything to say Sweden cut classes in half.

Here is a direct quote from an Irish parent of a child in a Swedish school

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/abroad/irish-parents-on-schools-reopening-abroad-it-has-gone-suprisingly-smoothly-1.4269774

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/07/school-openings-across-globe-suggest-ways-keep-coronavirus-bay-despite-outbreaks#

I should have mentioned, thought it was obvious, not Sweden.

Several teachers have died of COVID-19 complications in Sweden, where schools did not modify class sizes or make other substantive adjustments...

It’s hard to be sure, because in most places, schools reopened in concert with other aspects of public life. But in Denmark, nationwide case numbers continued to decline after day care centers and elementary schools opened on 15 April, and middle and high schools followed in May. In the Netherlands, new cases stayed flat and then dropped after elementary schools opened part-time on 11 May and high schools opened on 2 June. In Finland, Belgium, and Austria, too, officials say they found no evidence of increased spread of the novel coronavirus after schools reopened.

Denmark , who I was mainly referencing, has ten and under to a class.

France and Norway have a maximum of 15.

Irish class sizes are the highest in the Eurozone.

Even the UK gave a go at cutting their numbers down to 15 per class.

I took the extreme example, but in the case of the class with 30+ students, 8 kids in a class in Denmark is over four times less.

JDD

I never thought I'd say this. I voted Sinn Fein, Greens and Labour in January, and was delighted to see the back of Fine Gael.

But I miss Varadkar and Harris.

Maybe it was all spin and PR. Maybe they got the easy part - full lockdown - that was easy to communicate to the public.

But.

Harris may have been a **** Health Minister for 98% of his tenure, but at least from March to June he looked like he hadn't left his office. He'd come on the tv, hair dishevelled and grey, sleeves rolled up, and do his best to explain why they were doing what they were doing.

Varadkar was in the lucky position of being a doctor during a public health crisis. That very fact meant that people were going to trust that he at least understood what was going on. His televised addresses went a long way towards bringing the public with the government during the toughest part of the crisis. And that was no mean feat from an individual who came across as a manically ambitious cold fish automaton for all of his previous tenure.

I would have thought, when the government were taking a step back from reopening towards more restrictions, a televised address explaining those restrictions and the thinking behind it, would be necessary. Michael Martin comes across like a primary teacher from the 1930's, but he is actually quite articulate, and I'm sure he could fake empathy if he needed to (I mean, look at Varadkar, if he can do it anyone can). I think he decided not to do it because that was Varadkar's thing, and he doesn't want to be compared or look like he agrees with any decision FG ever made.

And as for Stephen Donnelly and Norma Foley. I mean, up to now Donnelly seemed competent and articulate in his statements in the Dail, and I generally agree with his political views, but this was far too far of a leap upwards for him. Who thought a first time government TD could take over the most difficult ministry in the country during the worst crisis we have faced. I would have understood if he had a medical background, but he's a mechanical engineer. Norma Foley? The worst sin at the moment is to be invisible to the public.

I'm not saying I'd vote FG again. They are not the right party to rebuild the country when this is all finished. But I can't help but harbour a feeling that we would have been better off if government talks had stalled for another few months. It's not democratic, I know, but circumstances had changed utterly since the January elections, and it would be have been an "Irish" solution.

Cilldara_2000

Eod100 wrote: »

Does this mean 50 people can be indoors but only 15 outdoors? Am I missing something? Surely people will congregate after and before indoor setting just the same..? https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1296374834012790784?s=19

I'm reminded of that Yes Minister episode where Hacker and Sir Humphrey clash over funding for sport or funding for "high" arts.

This is pure nonsense now. How can they be any more certain of theatre goers being more careful than match goers before and after the event?

stephenjmcd

The HSE did indeed as suspected double count last nights numbers in ICU

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1296380658139443201?s=19

Loafing Oaf

KrustyUCC wrote: »

What public answer was that?

Glynn has not given the evidence used to come to the decision

That should be very easy to give

X amount of clusters
X amount of cases
X amount of cases from pubs after matches etc

No it's not easy. Community transmission cases are by definition impossible to trace definitively. NPHET know the types of situations that lead to transmission and are trying to limit these as much as possible. And a judgment has been made that people congregating before and after sporting events is enough of a risk to justify banning spectators from those events.

is_that_so

snotboogie wrote: »

Except the tweet says: Public health experts have privately warned the Govt that the country may have to return to a full lockdown if the increase in Covid-19 cases continues

To be an "expert" in this you just need to have Dr in front of your name. While we should have a listen to what they might have to say you also need to be aware what their agenda is.

s1ippy

s1ippy wrote: »

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/07/school-openings-across-globe-suggest-ways-keep-coronavirus-bay-despite-outbreaks#

I should have mentioned, thought it was obvious, not Sweden.



Denmark , who I was mainly referencing, has ten and under to a class.

France and Norway have a maximum of 15.

Irish class sizes are the highest in the Eurozone.

Even the UK gave a go at cutting their numbers down to 15 per class.

I took the extreme example, but in the case of the class with 30+ students, 8 kids in a class in Denmark is over four times less.

But you were using the 4 times figure to rubbish the finding that there was no difference between Sweden and Finland. Sweden have not reduced class sizes and their average class size is about 20% lower than our, not 75%

Eod100

Cilldara_2000 wrote: »

I'm reminded of that Yes Minister episode where Hacker and Sir Humphrey clash over funding for sport or funding for "high" arts.

This is pure nonsense now. How can they be any more certain of theatre goers being more careful than match goers before and after the event?

I really don't know. Whether it's the scale of events, likely hundreds of matches up and down the country each weekend. Not sure how many gigs there would be. And may be peolle attending matches in rural areas may share cars. But then presumably people could just hang outside a venue after too.

Hurrache

KrustyUCC wrote: »

What public answer was that?

Glynn has not given the evidence used to come to the decision

That should be very easy to give

X amount of clusters
X amount of cases
X amount of cases from pubs after matches etc

Much easier to bring people along with you by being open

Public gatherings risk community spread. That's all there is to it.

stephenjmcd

Hurrache wrote: »

Public gatherings risk community spread. That's all there is to it.

But yet I can go to an indoor theatre with 50 people for as long as I want or a wedding.

Same points apply then, how did they travel to the theatre, did they meet people before, will they meet people after , oh and its indoor, a hell of a lot more risk than outdoor.

You can see where people have issues no ?

Also that video from Glynn and I've watched it didn't clear much up at all. I've also read the NPHET report and that's very light on specific evidence also.

This whole thing has been a mess since it was announced

Hurrache

We're talking about the GAA tantrum though, not the other things, which I already acknowledged were a mess.
People are looking for 'evidence'. The rise in community transmission numbers is all they evidence they need.

stephenjmcd

Hurrache wrote: »

We're talking about the GAA tantrum though, not the other things, which I already acknowledged were a mess.

Thats fine, GAA while I think were right to look for clarity went about it the wrong way.

FAI for example went to the Department for sport who are in talks with Dept of Health. Only public comment has been we're talking to government.

plodder

stephenjmcd wrote: »

The HSE did indeed as suspected double count last nights numbers in ICU

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1296380658139443201?s=19

So, their stats were out by 100%. It's easy to make mistakes with small numbers, but neither should we be putting too much store on trends with small numbers. Contemplating total lockdown when there are 6 cases in ICU would be total insanity.

robbiezero

Hurrache wrote: »

We're talking about the GAA tantrum though, not the other things, which I already acknowledged were a mess.

So you acknowledge things are a mess and yet the biggest sporting organisation in the country looking for a meeting to discuss the "mess" which has a big impact on their 500K+ members is a tantrum.

is_that_so

stephenjmcd wrote: »

But yet I can go to an indoor theatre with 50 people for as long as I want or a wedding.

Same points apply then, how did they travel to the theatre, did they meet people before, will they meet people after , oh and its indoor, a hell of a lot more risk than outdoor.

You can see where people have issues no ?

Also that video from Glynn and I've watched it didn't clear much up at all. I've also read the NPHET report and that's very light on specific evidence also.

This whole thing has been a mess since it was announced

Weddings involve the hospitality industry and they are very reluctant to penalise them. Theatres and entertainment are a long way down the list of things any government cares about at present. I think they are very likely to stick to their guns on this because of the schools.

Hurrache

robbiezero wrote: »

So you acknowledge things are a mess and yet the biggest sporting organisation in the country looking for a meeting to discuss the "mess" which has a big impact on their 500K+ members is a tantrum.

What the GAA are whinging about is the most obvious thing to all and sundry, since March.

robbiezero

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Thats fine, GAA while I think were right to look for clarity went about it the wrong way.

FAI for example went to the Department for sport who are in talks with Dept of Health. Only public comment has been we're talking to government.

While I couldn't give a rats about the FAI,
I'd prefer to see some transparency about the whole process.
The FAI is no position to make anything awkward for the Government and will be just fobbed off or be told something about trampolines.

robbiezero

Hurrache wrote: »

What the GAA are whinging about is the most obvious thing to all and sundry, since March.

Kingston Mills must be a dope so if he is confused about it.

lee_baby_simms

plodder wrote: »

Contemplating total lockdown when there are 6 cases in ICU would be total insanity.

Hospitalisation numbers don't seem to be driving policy primarily. Its the positive PCR cases which are mostly asymptomatic that are.

The muddled strategy thats now directing NPHET is 'zero-Covid' aka 'Burn down the barn to kill a spider.'

What Username Guidelines

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

Unfortunately the hse report shows quite a jump (relatively) in ICU.

There’s now 12 in ICU, up from 7 yesterday. 6 are ventilated, up from 4 yesterday.

Hospital numbers are at 16, down from 20 yesterday.

There does seem to be something odd with the report, given each hospital with icu patients all have 2 each, and some of those only show 1 in general beds, but they are reported at slightly different times (6.30 for ICU and 8pm for general beds)

https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/covid19-daily-operations-update-2000-19-august-2020.pdf

As suspected - the data was doubled and has since been amended

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1296380658139443201?s=20

Also interesting, 50 contacts

https://twitter.com/michellehtweet/status/1296387813005496320?s=20

at least holahan gave the mean and median number of the deaths, why are we not getting this?? I cannot see it anywhere. All I can see is blah blah average spread under 45's..

Paddygreen

Hurrache wrote: »

We're talking about the GAA tantrum though, not the other things, which I already acknowledged were a mess.
People are looking for 'evidence'. The rise in community transmission numbers is all they evidence they need.

The curve hasn’t been flattened to the point where our experts can tell our politicians advisors to tell our leaders to modify the rules. We need to flatten the curve guys so I just think we should do what Simon says going forward.

ACitizenErased

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

As suspected - the data was doubled and has since been amended

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1296380658139443201?s=20

Also interesting, 50 contacts

https://twitter.com/michellehtweet/status/1296387813005496320?s=20

According to the HSE dashboard the average positivity rate hasn’t risen above 1.3%

Eod100

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

As suspected - the data was doubled and has since been amended

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1296380658139443201?s=20

Also interesting, 50 contacts

https://twitter.com/michellehtweet/status/1296387813005496320?s=20

Is that 50 in 2 weeks? Guess if they're out working and socialising it might not be that mad

hotmail.com

Stephen Donnelly needs to be stood down (sacked).

What Username Guidelines

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

As suspected - the data was doubled and has since been amended

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1296380658139443201?s=20

Also interesting, 50 contacts

https://twitter.com/michellehtweet/status/1296387813005496320?s=20

More muddled messaging - Paul Reid stating 2%positive in the last week. THe actual data says 1.3%
https://covid19ireland-geohive.hub.arcgis.com/pages/hospitals-icu--testing

What Username Guidelines

ACitizenErased wrote: »

According to the HSE dashboard the average positivity rate hasn’t risen above 1.3%

Yeah I thought the same, I'm not listening to the conference itself so not sure if it's a misquote or bending of results (2% in Kildare? 2% in LOK?).

ACitizenErased

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

Yeah I thought the same, I'm not listening to the conference itself so not sure if it's a misquote or bending of results (2% in Kildare? 2% in LOK?).

The positivity rate the day before yesterday was less than 1% and just above 1% yesterday, possible true RE LOK because of the amount of cases

What Username Guidelines

hotmail.com wrote: »

Stephen Donnelly needs to be stood down (sacked).

Was never gonna be an easy role, I do not envy anyone doing it, but Harris was a far better communicator. As much as action is needed as well as solid communication, communication is the one to get the public on board.