Covid 19 Part XXI-27,908 in ROI (1,777 deaths) 6,647 in NI (559 deaths)(22/08)Read OP

Eod100

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Very sorry I'm sure. I thought the guidelines according to his boss were "very clear"
https://twitter.com/MaryERegan/status/1296533755725832194?s=19

Sorry he was caught more like. This government is so weak that you could see him resign and being replaced with a minister from Kildare.

Non solum non ambulabit

B.A._Baracus wrote: »

Honestly... I'm getting put off reading this thread as it appears no matter what the number a certain number of posters will make an excuse as to why it's high.

It could be a million cases tomorrow and sure it's not accurate.... Etc. Be grand. Etc.

The analysis of the numbers by some on this thread have been superb and better than what I read in the press. Why shouldn't people ask why positive tests are not being reported in good time and causing backlogs and uneven data.

What Username Guidelines

caveat emptor wrote: »

That's brilliant. I don't mean any disrespect to the doctors when I say second opinions. Generally with big things I always try to triangulate opinions off a number of experts. (dangerous to use that word here)

Got the idea from the Ray Dalio book principles. He's worth about 17 billion and tells how one doctor said that he should be disembowelled to curtail the growth of a cancer. He got 3 world class people on the phone and they suggested a far less radical course of action. Then 2 more confirmed it. We can't all do that but two can help.

Won't post whole thing here but have a read.

http://meaningring.com/2019/05/03/life-principles-3-4/

Incredible. I read the whole thing, thanks. At the risk of diverging off topic, I was absolutely blown away by the level of collaboration and expertise in her treatment. Within hours of admission, she was seen by many consultants, and each of them spoke with colleagues worldwide. Without any sort of hesitation, they sent blood samples to various labs in Ireland, Great Ormond Street hospital, Newcastle, Italy, and the Netherlands, and they had a diagnosis on day 6. She was the third child in Ireland ever diagnosed with the condition. It’s unreal what goes on behind the scenes in the HSE. Thanks to a business contact, we got input from a professor in immunology in Great Ormond Street who heard who were dealing with in Our Lady’s and basically said “look you’re in the best hands you could be” so I’ll trust this lad

B.A._Baracus

B.A._Baracus wrote: »

Honestly... I'm getting put off reading this thread as it appears no matter what the number a certain number of posters will make an excuse as to why it's high.

It could be a million cases tomorrow and sure it's not accurate.... Etc. Be grand. Etc.

R rate has dropped from 1.8 to 1.2 in last two weeks. Heading in the right direction. :pac::pac:

Cannot just look at one number in isolation and wish it was less.

smelly sock

Callerys antics could topple this government.

FF really are a shower of cowboys, conmen and gangsters.

theballz

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I see that the Netherlands cases from the 2nd - 15th of August is 7,700

We are not doing too badly

No actually, we are doing very badly.

Plumbthedepths

caveat emptor wrote: »

It’s not well known yet. Warrants precaution.

https://twitter.com/erictopol/status/1296453662022291457?s=21

A reply he received.

ran nir-paz (@rannirpaz1) Tweeted: @EricTopol @JPediatr @LaelYonker @MGH_RI @MGH_Mucosalists @arianaeunjung Age 17-22 are not kids.... https://twitter.com/rannirpaz1/status/1296484471525576704?s=20

What Username Guidelines

B.A._Baracus wrote: »

Honestly... I'm getting put off reading this thread as it appears no matter what the number a certain number of posters will make an excuse as to why it's high.

It could be a million cases tomorrow and sure it's not accurate.... Etc. Be grand. Etc.

To be honest the thread has improved the last few days. It goes through waves of sniping and either doom mongers or sugar coaters getting ganged up on. The analysis of numbers is excellent here and there’s always a “reason” for high and low numbers. Identifying it as a cluster, or late reporting, or whatever doesn’t mean the cases are being minimised at all, it just means we understand what’s going on a bit better. I think as more posters realise you don’t have to belong in either camp, the numbers can be discussed civilly.

regulators

spookwoman wrote: »

So what's the excuse for tonights 136

:pac: It will be back to March/April numbers before long, especially with the 1,250,000 students returning. Then we go back to full lock down again for two or three months. Then rinse and repeat as not going away.

Just keep the over 60's and those with underlying illness isolate and let the rest of us get on with our lives.

ACitizenErased

Kingston Mills is on Prime Time right now, saying government are overreacting. Arguing there's no reason why people shouldn't be allowed go watch matches.

tigger123

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Kingston Mills is on Prime Time right now, saying government are overreacting. Arguing there's no reason why people shouldn't be allowed go watch matches.

Did he not say that talk of a lockdown is an overreaction? Not that the government are overreacting.

smelly sock

Kinsgley mills hinting the nail on the head re the sport v pubs debate.

The more you look at it the more that really is a total ****ty decision by nphet amd govt.

Nobody has been able to clearly explain why goong to a pub for food with up to 80 people in is safer than standing on a sideline outdoors.

Scummy.

ACitizenErased

tigger123 wrote: »

Did he not say that talk of a lockdown is an overreaction? Not that the government are overreacting.

He said they're overreactionary. He discussed the pubs vs sports.

Eod100

There's a behavioral scientist who advises NPHET on Prime Time. Fairly common sense stuff. If you want change of behaviour you need clear explanations he says. Not exactly rocket science.

smelly sock

tigger123 wrote: »

Did he not say that talk of a lockdown is an overreaction? Not that the government are overreacting.

Same thing. He absolutely said its nonsense to suggest you cant go to a match but can go to a pub.

regulators

regulators wrote: »

:pac: It will be back to March/April numbers before long, especially with the 1,250,000 students returning. Then we go back to full lock down again for two or three months. Then rinse and repeat as not going away.

Just keep the over 60's and those with underlying illness isolate and let the rest of us get on with our lives.

Unlikely NPHET are guided by r rate/hospitalisations.

It's a balancing act.

Cannot see bars being opened for the foreseeable though.

Alchohol and SD don't work.

regulators

smelly sock wrote: »

Same thing. He absolutely said its nonsense to suggest you cant go to a match but can go to a pub.

1,250,000 students returning to school/college possibly infecting there parents as well.

Yet you can't have a pint in your local or go to your local GAA match.

An absolute joke.

Gerry Hatrick

This guy on Primetime has had too much coffee

Jim_Hodge

bb1234567 wrote: »

Not saying I necessarily agree with his suggestion but is it not a better idea than keeping a significant number of the under 60 age groups also not working?

It goes further than just pensioning them off. It would also tell a huge section of our society that their lives are effectively over and of no value. There are 650000 people over 65 and that would grow significantly with over 60s,

khalessi

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

A reply he received.

ran nir-paz (@rannirpaz1) Tweeted: @EricTopol @JPediatr @LaelYonker @MGH_RI @MGH_Mucosalists @arianaeunjung Age 17-22 are not kids.... https://twitter.com/rannirpaz1/status/1296484471525576704?s=20

Obviously the guy who replied did not read the study.

Our final cohort included 145 patients with mild to moderate illness within 1 week of symptom onset. We compared 3 groups: young children younger than 5 years (n = 46), older children aged 5 to 17 years (n = 51), and adults aged 18 to 65 years (n = 48).
We found similar median (interquartile range) CT values for older children (11.1 [6.3-15.7]) and adults (11.0 [6.9-17.5]).

However, young children had significantly lower median (interquartile range) CT values (6.5 [4.8-12.0]), indicating that young children have equivalent or more viral nucleic acid in their upper respiratory tract compared with older children and adults (Figure).

The observed differences in median CT values between young children and adults approximate a 10-fold to 100-fold greater amount of SARS-CoV-2 in the upper respiratory tract of young children.

We performed a sensitivity analysis and observed a similar statistical difference between groups when including those with unknown symptom duration. Additionally, we identified only a very weak correlation between symptom duration and CT in the overall cohort (Spearman ρ = 0.22) and in each subgroup (young children, Spearman ρ = 0.20; older children, Spearman ρ = 0.19; and adults, Spearman ρ = 0.10).

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamapediatrics/fullarticle/2768952
https://www.sciencealert.com/study-suggests-young-children-are-carrying-higher-levels-of-coronavirus

Eod100

Mills is right about antibody testing, although if we can't keep up with standard testing not sure how it would be implemented.

ACitizenErased

Interesting piece now about the lack of deaths lately worldwide despite resurgences

KrustyUCC

I was enjoying prime time with Mills and Lund both making sense

Vicxas

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Interesting piece now about the lack of deaths lately worldwide despite resurgences

Most vulnerable people are cocooning.

ACitizenErased

Vicxas wrote: »

Most vulnerable people are cocooning.

Not the vulnerable people I know.

Non solum non ambulabit

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Interesting piece now about the lack of deaths lately worldwide despite resurgences

This is really interesting to me. I think we need to make decisions today based on this real world data and not images from Italy in March.

smelly sock

smelly sock wrote: »

Kinsgley mills hinting the nail on the head re the sport v pubs debate.

The more you look at it the more that really is a total ****ty decision by nphet amd govt.

Nobody has been able to clearly explain why goong to a pub for food with up to 80 people in is safer than standing on a sideline outdoors.

Scummy.

To close down restaurants would cause alot more damage to economy than attendees at a football match. It was the low hanging fruit. If they think this will bring r rate down even a small bit re less socialising before/after going to these matches they think we will do this rather than take on the vintners assoc. Trying to give a little bit to everyone. Gaa is not closed down altogether and neither is the pubs that serve food. They are just trying to give everyone a small bit each. It's all a bit of a compromise to all sections of society. Mass for the oldies is another example.

What Username Guidelines

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Interesting piece now about the lack of deaths lately worldwide despite resurgences

Any significant insight into why? It’s at rare times like these I regret not having a tv. Rest of the pandemic though it’s served me well not having one

Jim_Hodge

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Not the vulnerable people I know.

I suspect I know more of them than you and most are definitely taking extreme care.

ACitizenErased

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

Any significant insight into why? It’s at rare times like these I regret not having a tv. Rest of the pandemic though it’s served me well not having one

They kind of skipped over it. One is promoting this zero covid nonsense and the other claims younger people should be let free and try to quarantine old people as much as possible.

timmy_mallet

regulators wrote: »

:pac: It will be back to March/April numbers before long, especially with the 1,250,000 students returning. Then we go back to full lock down again for two or three months. Then rinse and repeat as not going away.

Just keep the over 60's and those with underlying illness isolate and let the rest of us get on with our lives.

Indeed, but the 60 limit is not needed, what if yer over 60 and as fit as a fiddle an no underlying conditions? Ur 59 and stroke of midnight tonight you're goosed?

The vulnerable, no matter what age, need to be protected and the best way they can do is protect themselves

spookwoman

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

To be honest the thread has improved the last few days. It goes through waves of sniping and either doom mongers or sugar coaters getting ganged up on. The analysis of numbers is excellent here and there’s always a “reason” for high and low numbers. Identifying it as a cluster, or late reporting, or whatever doesn’t mean the cases are being minimised at all, it just means we understand what’s going on a bit better. I think as more posters realise you don’t have to belong in either camp, the numbers can be discussed civilly.

It's all speculation on the numbers we just don't know. Some of the theories though are a little mad

Non solum non ambulabit

Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »

This is really interesting to me. I think we need to make decisions today based on this real world :pac:data and not images from Italy in March.

There is an Italian Dr. saying the disease does not exist anymore in Italy, in that it does not cause the same illness in March. We live in hope.. :pac:

ACitizenErased

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

I suspect I know more of them than you and most are definitely taking extreme care.

Strange comment I've a almost-90 year old grandmother who meets with her friend in cafe's every week, drives around doing shopping herself with barely any extra precautions other than a mask. Her friends do the same. Most older/vulnerable people are sick to death of staying at home.

B.A._Baracus

Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »

The analysis of the numbers by some on this thread have been superb and better than what I read in the press. Why shouldn't people ask why positive tests are not being reported in good time and causing backlogs and uneven data.

But sure everyone is an expert on the internet.

Renjit

B.A._Baracus wrote: »

But sure everyone is an expert on the internet.

I am the keyboard warrior

spookwoman

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

I suspect I know more of them than you and most are definitely taking extreme care.

Ones I know are taking extreme care as well.

Jim_Hodge

spookwoman wrote: »

Ones I know are taking extreme care as well.

I know rightly what my friends and family are all doing to keep as safe as we possibly can. He needs to talk some sense into his grandmother by the sounds of it.

owlbethere

The biggest thing for me coming out from the serology results is that 73% of the people who tested and were positive showed typical symptoms of covid19 so, I presume that would be symptoms as laid out by the hse
Cough
Fever
Shortness of breath
Flu like symptoms


The rest of the study, would be 27% - I presume these would be asymptomatic.

I know there were plenty of posts of hoping that asymptomatic spread was huge and the virus has reached the majority of the population. I don't think so

bb1234567

Enormous surge in cases in France today, probably the first major wave in Europe since May, will be really important to see whether or not this translates into a larger number of deaths in a European context.

wadacrack

Importnat to remember deaths lag and that the virus is not going to eventually infect vulnerable people. Lessons to be learned from Florida. Wait and see, its too late then

https://twitter.com/firefoxx66/status/1296080742607355904

Queried

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

I’ve no official source for the below, only myself, but we met with my daughter’s oncologist and immunologist today and we spoke about returning to school.

My daughter is due to start junior infants Monday week and is finished treatment. They are advising all children who are currently in treatment or post treatment to return as normal, and abide by usual oncology protocols (teachers will warn of suspected chicken pox or measles, etc).

They mentioned all covid cases were a child hospitalised for something else and the virus picked up by admissions testing req’d for all children. No child ended up in hospital as a result of covid symptoms. And no child currently on cancer treatment has been diagnosed with it.

Wishing your daughter the very best for her first year at school. I have no doubt that every precaution will be taken to make her experience at school as safe as possible.

Non solum non ambulabit

B.A._Baracus wrote: »

But sure everyone is an expert on the internet.

It's just numbers and analysis. No reporter for example has asked why we had 190 positive tests in the last 24hrs and only 56 new cases announced. It's observations like that, for me, really show this threads worth. I would not know about without the analysis of some great posters.

What Username Guidelines

spookwoman wrote: »

It's all speculation on the numbers we just don't know. Some of the theories though are a little mad

Mad theories are very welcome though if they can be discussed without petty jibes, etc, it’s great to look at this like this from many perspectives.

It is indeed all speculation, but with the fractured data sources (hse reports, hspc briefings/statements, covid dashboard, testing data, etc) it’s very difficult to source and analyse all the data, and if you instead just took everything from a couple of news sources, you’d see a completely different picture, varying even from source to source.

Of course in a busy thread it’ll get a bit messy sometimes, but I’m always interested in seeing friends and families regurgitate ridiculous news. Remember in early April when ICU was “full”? I’ve become the ACitizenErased of my family. My mam sent me a link to an RTÉ story about suspect cases in hospital at 170 or something along with “is this exaggerated?” Yes ma, don’t cancel your walk with your friend tomorrow. It’s ok.

wadacrack

Been a few cases of this hitting athletes and now they are unable to resume their Sport. Rugby, American Football and Baseball players affected.

https://twitter.com/sanghyuk_shin/status/1296488502029426688

igCorcaigh

On the political side of things, I think we've all seen reports of a massive wealth shift to the global ultra rich during the last few months.

And then this (OK its BNO but you get my point).

Let's make it very clear who foots the bill for the lockdown.

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1296554663362342912?s=19

igCorcaigh

igCorcaigh wrote: »

On the political side of things, I think we've all seen reports of a massive wealth shift to the global ultra rich during the last few months.

And then this (OK its BNO but you get my point).

Let's make it very clear who foots the bill for the lockdown.

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1296554663362342912?s=19

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1296554663362342912?s=19

owlbethere

owlbethere wrote: »

The biggest thing for me coming out from the serology results is that 73% of the people who tested and were positive showed typical symptoms of covid19 so, I presume that would be symptoms as laid out by the hse
Cough
Fever
Shortness of breath
Flu like symptoms


The rest of the study, would be 27% - I presume these would be asymptomatic.

I know there were plenty of posts of hoping that asymptomatic spread was huge and the virus has reached the majority of the population. I don't think so

I don't trust that data. We have 6% mortality based on positive tests recorded. Serology said three times cases. Mortality is now 2% based on serology est. Yet internationally mortality is seen as maybe. 0.5%.Something doesn't add up. I think it's much greater spread. Historians can tell us in time, atm we are fumbling in the dark. De Gascun thought 5%. Ciara Kelly confirmed positive along with family members. Did Anti body tests negative, even though she tested positive in March.

CalamariFritti

owlbethere wrote: »

The biggest thing for me coming out from the serology results is that 73% of the people who tested and were positive showed typical symptoms of covid19 so, I presume that would be symptoms as laid out by the hse
Cough
Fever
Shortness of breath
Flu like symptoms


The rest of the study, would be 27% - I presume these would be asymptomatic.

I know there were plenty of posts of hoping that asymptomatic spread was huge and the virus has reached the majority of the population. I don't think so

Just from observing the various bits of information over the months like everyone else - it seems there is a group of people who it just bounces off no reaction no antibodies. Then there are the ones who get infected and show a reaction and will have antibodies. Most of those seem mild some are not. Then there are the ones who get hit really bad.

The really bad ones thankfully seem by far the smallest group albeit too big for comfort. How big the other two groups are we don't really know. Are the bullet proof ones half the size of the infected group? About the same? Multiples of? Twice, three times, ten times?

Seems one of most important bits to know about this thing, but how would you find out?

Plumbthedepths

wadacrack wrote: »

Been a few cases of this hitting athletes and now they are unable to resume their Sport. Rugby, American Football and Baseball players affected.

https://twitter.com/sanghyuk_shin/status/1296488502029426688

Influenza can also cause inflammation of the heart muscle as can many other viruses. It's the bodies response to infection.