Covid 19 Part XXI-27,908 in ROI (1,777 deaths) 6,647 in NI (559 deaths)(22/08)Read OP

What Username Guidelines

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I don't trust that data. We have 6% mortality based on positive tests recorded. Serology said three times cases. Mortality is now 2% based on serology est. Yet internationally mortality is seen as maybe. 0.5%.Something doesn't add up. I think it's much greater spread. Historians can tell us in time, atm we are fumbling in the dark. De Gascun thought 5%. Ciara Kelly confirmed positive along with family members. Did Anti body tests negative, even though she tested positive in March.

I’m inclined to agree and believe it has to be higher given other country’s experience.

But playing devils advocate, the flip side is a bit scarier. Maybe it has spread heavily and loads have got it, but 1.7% antibodies is still correct. As in 98.3%, some of which may have already had it, are still susceptible.

The likelihood is that even if antibodies are low, and therefore aren’t detectable, they may provide some protection. But we just don’t know.

bb1234567

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I don't trust that data. We have 6% mortality based on positive tests recorded. Serology said three times cases. Mortality is now 2% based on serology est. Yet internationally mortality is seen as maybe. 0.5%.Something doesn't add up. I think it's much greater spread. Historians can tell us in time, atm we are fumbling in the dark. De Gascun thought 5%. Ciara Kelly confirmed positive along with family members. Did Anti body tests negative, even though she tested positive in March.

Mortality varies massively by country, it's thought to be as low as 0.15% in India and in parts of Europe such as Spain and Italy over 1%. Overall global estimate is 0,65%. With 65% of our deaths in nursing homes it's no surprise that the national IFR may be that high, although this is a false inflation due to neglect allowing rampant infection among this vulnerable group. Although I do agree there may be a lot of infections slipping under the radar due to diminishing antibodies etc.

Arghus

I was skeptical about RTE sticking the knife into Dara Callery, but Prime Time were all over it in fairness. There'll be some fireworks over this. But the saving grace for the government is that the Dail is in recess, otherwise SF would be absolutely tearing the hole off him in the Dail.

regulators

Deleted User wrote: »

Unlikely NPHET are guided by r rate/hospitalisations.

It's a balancing act.

Cannot see bars being opened for the foreseeable though.

Alchohol and SD don't work.

Can you see it working for students in schools in all honesty?

bb1234567

bb1234567 wrote: »

Mortality varies massively by country, it's thought to be as low as 0.15% in India and in parts of Europe such as Spain and Italy over 1%. Overall global estimate is 0,65%. With 65% of our deaths in nursing homes it's no surprise that the national IFR may be that high. Although I do agree there may be a lot of infections slipping under the radar due to diminishing antibodies etc.

We have so many gaps in information around the world.

Cases missing/Deaths under/overstated/level of care of sick/demographics.

It's all a guessing game.

Arghus

regulators wrote: »

Can you see it working for students in schools in all honesty?

Nope, not a chance in a million years. We're all just hoping to God that our hunch about it not spreading easily amongst kids and it not being dangerous to them turns out to be correct.

shockframe

Fianna Fail are some ticket lads.

In 2010 they were trying to tell us that a severe National emergency wasn't happening even as the IMF were knocking on the door.

In 2020 they are placing restricitons left right and center for what they reckon is a severe National Emergency even when in a lot of places it looks like it isn't right now.

timmy_mallet

Arghus wrote: »

Nope, not a chance in a million years. We're all just hoping to God that our hunch about it not spreading easily amongst kids and it not being dangerous to them turns out to be correct.

We're among the last country to send kids to school, we'd likely know that by now

Eod100

Anyone else hitting a covid wall? Government's communication, hypocrisy, entitlement and inconsistencies doing nothing for people's morale.

Ce he sin

Deleted User wrote: »

There is an Italian Dr. saying the disease does not exist anymore in Italy, in that it does not cause the same illness in March. We live in hope.. :pac:

That doctor (he made the claim some time ago) is being trotted out here every few days.
Meantime the number in ICU in Italy continues to rise, and sadly for those hoping that herd immunity has been reached in the regions most affected earlier this year it's those same regions again. We can only hope that treatment has improved.

Scoondal

Michael Cawley resigned straight away for doing nothing wrong.
Dara Calleary what do you say as a minister clearly breaching public health advice ?

Longing

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Interesting piece now about the lack of deaths lately worldwide despite resurgences

I'm not watching. But they are taking sh*t if they are saying worldwide deaths are decreasing.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/worldwide-graphs/#daily-deaths

Ce he sin

Ce he sin wrote: »

That doctor (he made the claim some time ago) is being trotted out here every few days.
Meantime the number in ICU in Italy continues to rise, and sadly for those hoping that herd immunity has been reached in the regions most affected earlier this year it's those same regions again. We can only hope that treatment has improved.

Don't think your up to date on your info. Hospitalisations are really low in Italy atm. 90% of the 900 cases today announced in Italy have no symptoms.

Stheno

Eod100 wrote: »

Anyone else hitting a covid wall? Government's communication, hypocrisy, entitlement and inconsistencies doing nothing for people's morale.

Yep it feels like there is no clarity on anything

road_high

timmy_mallet wrote: »

We're among the last country to send kids to school, we'd likely know that by now

Sadly we’re not a very practical stoic nation. Many are very easily panicked and tend to hit the emotional button at every given opportunity. They’re not capable of calmly looking at statistics and demand a zero risk approach to all life which just isn’t practical. That’s why it’s such a meal getting schools/anything reopened. Plus welfare and public expenditure is too freely available there’s little incentive to get back to a (As possible) normal productive life.
Countries in Europe have been through far worse in their recent histories, we stood back from all that as we usually do which may have given them a greater sense of perspective on something like this.

bb1234567

Longing wrote: »

I'm not watching. But they are taking sh*t if they are saying worldwide deaths are decreasing.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/worldwide-graphs/#daily-deaths

Indeed global deaths yesterday were the same as the numbers reported worldwide in late April. Cases are much higher than that time obviously due to increased testing, but deaths are far from low unless the peak in April is considered to be a low number of deaths .

bb1234567

Ce he sin wrote: »

That doctor (he made the claim some time ago) is being trotted out here every few days.
Meantime the number in ICU in Italy continues to rise, and sadly for those hoping that herd immunity has been reached in the regions most affected earlier this year it's those same regions again. We can only hope that treatment has improved.

Do you've a link for that? I havnt heard anything about increased hospitalisations in Italy.

An Ciarraioch

Arghus wrote: »

I was skeptical about RTE sticking the knife into Dara Callery, but Prime Time were all over it in fairness. There'll be some fireworks over this. But the saving grace for the government is that the Dail is in recess, otherwise SF would be absolutely tearing the hole off him in the Dail.

Now being reported by the Independent that Phil Hogan was at the function, which raises further quarantine issues.

Roger_007

Deleted User wrote: »

We have so many gaps in information around the world.

Cases missing/Deaths under/overstated/level of care of sick/demographics.

It's all a guessing game.

The biggest gap in our knowledge about Covid is why so many people who have been exposed to the virus have not been infected. I know of two households where one or two members have tested positive and several others have not.
I have yet to hear an explanation as to why people who would have no immunity have not become infected even though other members of their family were symptomatic, (and presumably infectious), for a number of days.
Has there been any research on this?

Father Hernandez

https://twitter.com/daracalleary/status/1296539177643905026?s=20

I'm sorry I was caught out.

spookwoman

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

Mad theories are very welcome though if they can be discussed without petty jibes, etc, it’s great to look at this like this from many perspectives.

It is indeed all speculation, but with the fractured data sources (hse reports, hspc briefings/statements, covid dashboard, testing data, etc) it’s very difficult to source and analyse all the data, and if you instead just took everything from a couple of news sources, you’d see a completely different picture, varying even from source to source.

Of course in a busy thread it’ll get a bit messy sometimes, but I’m always interested in seeing friends and families regurgitate ridiculous news. Remember in early April when ICU was “full”? I’ve become the ACitizenErased of my family. My mam sent me a link to an RTÉ story about suspect cases in hospital at 170 or something along with “is this exaggerated?” Yes ma, don’t cancel your walk with your friend tomorrow. It’s ok.

Reports coming in a different times doesn't help but adding a biased commentary to the numbers is not helping. I have found the excuses borderline to full blown tinfoil hat especially when many of the same posters demand peer reviewed data / reports when someone else posts a news paper article.

deisedevil

Roger_007 wrote: »

The biggest gap in our knowledge about Covid is why so many people who have been exposed to the virus have not been infected. I know of two households where one or two members have tested positive and several others have not.
I have yet to hear an explanation as to why people who would have no immunity have not become infected even though other members of their family were symptomatic, (and presumably infectious), for a number of days.
Has there been any research on this?

Is it a similar situation to those who rarely seem to pick up a cold. Our whole house could be coughing and sneezing but my wife wouldnt even get a sniffle.

Scoondal

Government ministers are immune from Covid19 apparently. They can do what they want but tell us that 15 people are only allowed at an indoor golf event. RESIGN.

Ce he sin

Deleted User wrote: »

Don't think your up to date on your info. Hospitalisations are really low in Italy atm. 90% of the 900 cases today announced in Italy have no symptoms.

I'm afraid I am. Here are the figures for intensive care:
6 Aug 42
7 Aug 42
8 Aug 43
9 Aug 45
10 Aug 46
11 Aug 49
12 Aug 53
13 Aug 55
14 Aug 56
15 Aug 55
16 Aug 56
17 Aug 58
18 Aug 58
19 Aug 66
20 Aug 68


Yes, the numbers are low compared to a couple of months ago, but they're up more than 50% in two weeks. It won't take long for the numbers to become large again.

Roger_007

Roger_007 wrote: »

The biggest gap in our knowledge about Covid is why so many people who have been exposed to the virus have not been infected. I know of two households where one or two members have tested positive and several others have not.
I have yet to hear an explanation as to why people who would have no immunity have not become infected even though other members of their family were symptomatic, (and presumably infectious), for a number of days.
Has there been any research on this?

There is definitely people who are much more immune to this than others due to hereditary/previous exposure/age. There is no way 98% of population are susceptible to this in my humble opinion. It will take us years to understand these things though.

Eod100

Stheno wrote: »

Yep it feels like there is no clarity on anything

It's also the feeling that summer is over and feeling on missed out everything that normally happens in a usual summer, going into autumn/winter with bad weather and long evenings and massive uncertainty. We will overcome I'm sure but good to acknowledge how crap it's been for everyone now and again. And that's of course not to take away from people who have died and got seriously ill and their families, all the healthcare workers and essential workers.

Ce he sin

Ce he sin wrote: »

I'm afraid I am. Here are the figures for intensive care:
6 Aug 42
7 Aug 42
8 Aug 43
9 Aug 45
10 Aug 46
11 Aug 49
12 Aug 53
13 Aug 55
14 Aug 56
15 Aug 55
16 Aug 56
17 Aug 58
18 Aug 58
19 Aug 66
20 Aug 68


Yes, the numbers are low compared to a couple of months ago, but they're up more than 50% in two weeks. It won't take long for the numbers to become large again.

68 out of 60 million population. That would be like 5 in our country. Extremely low.

polesheep

spookwoman wrote: »

Ones I know are taking extreme care as well.

The vulnerable friends of those who take extreme care are taking extreme care... Who'da thunk it.

CalamariFritti

Roger_007 wrote: »

The biggest gap in our knowledge about Covid is why so many people who have been exposed to the virus have not been infected. I know of two households where one or two members have tested positive and several others have not.
I have yet to hear an explanation as to why people who would have no immunity have not become infected even though other members of their family were symptomatic, (and presumably infectious), for a number of days.
Has there been any research on this?

Same thing here. Know of a household where one person had it, one was asymptomatic (but positive), a third just didnt get it.

Would be supported by numbers from regions where it more or less appears to have gone right through. Antibodies to varying degrees but always a large number with nothing at all. They couldn't just have all gotten lucky.

Arghus

timmy_mallet wrote: »

We're among the last country to send kids to school, we'd likely know that by now

Schools are still closed as far as I'm aware in many jurisdictions. I know that they are still closed in England and they don't go back in Italy until mid September. Obviously they are places elsewhere that have been open, but I don't think it's been that widespread so far.

There's an article here claiming that pupils going back in a North German state are the first to go back in Europe - and that was only a fortnight ago. It's early days yet.

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0803/1157119-germany-schools-reopen/

JP Liz V1

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Now being reported by the Independent that Phil Hogan was at the function, which raises further quarantine issues.

https://twitter.com/Independent_ie/status/1296557560787546114

:rolleyes:

igCorcaigh

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1296564302485299201?s=19

igCorcaigh

We are so long away from herd immunity, if that is around 70%

Eod100

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/Independent_ie/status/1296557560787546114

:rolleyes:

Odds that he self isolated for 2 weeks beforehand? Slim to none.

ACitizenErased

17 in hospital, increase of 1 (Kerry)
6 in ICU and 3 ventilated, no change

igCorcaigh

ACitizenErased wrote: »

17 in hospital, increase of 1 (Kerry)
6 in ICU and 3 ventilated, no change

We are coping very well with the levels of illness from this virus.

I wish all the best to those in care.

Seamai

igCorcaigh wrote: »

We are coping very well with the levels of illness from this virus.

I wish all the best to those in care.

Let's all hope it stays this low.

bb1234567

igCorcaigh wrote: »

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1296564302485299201?s=19

So the US is approaching herd immunity then in some regions perhaps. Would be really interesting to compare with other large countries like Brazil, surely a large percent of Brazilians have contracted Covid by now, likely far more than the 10-20% of Americans given Brazil had no lockdown unlike the states.

Micky 32

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

He needs to talk some sense into his grandmother by the sounds of it.

Really? Stop talking nonsense. She’s 90 years old and possibly hasn’t much time left anyway. You could get a bad stroke at any minute at that age. I say fair play to her.

bb1234567

Micky 32 wrote: »

Really? Stop talking nonsense. She’s 90 years old and possibly hasn’t much time left. You could get a bad stroke at any minute at that age. I say fair play to her.

You can enjoy your life and still take some sensible precautions I think we could all agree. If she's healthy she may have plenty of years left to live , but Covid would make that unlikely if she were to contract it so unnecessarily with an irrational 'f*ck it' attitude.

For the record I'm against the cocooning concept and total isolation, it's inhumane, especially at that age where every last year is getting more precious . But the poster made it sound as if she has thrown all caution to the wind, it's just a bad time to be doing that.

Micky 32

bb1234567 wrote: »

You can enjoy your life and still take some sensible precautions I think we could all agree. If she's healthy she may have plenty of years left to live , but Covid would make that unlikely if she were to contract it through an irrational '**** it' attitude.

How do you know she’s not taking precautions? You can still move around taking precautions. Like i said fair play to her because we don’t know when it will end. There’s no guarantee living “ plenty of years” when your 90.

I was shopping for the auld pair today, there was a good few old people in there. I also noticed Dunnes not enforcing the masks either.

Ce he sin

Deleted User wrote: »

68 out of 60 million population. That would be like 5 in our country. Extremely low.

Like I said....low, but rising. Hopefully the numbers will level off soon, but just a few months ago there were none.

Gentleman Off The Pitch

road_high wrote: »

Sadly we’re not a very practical stoic nation. Many are very easily panicked and tend to hit the emotional button at every given opportunity. They’re not capable of calmly looking at statistics and demand a zero risk approach to all life which just isn’t practical. That’s why it’s such a meal getting schools/anything reopened. Plus welfare and public expenditure is too freely available there’s little incentive to get back to a (As possible) normal productive life.
Countries in Europe have been through far worse in their recent histories, we stood back from all that as we usually do which may have given us a greater sense of perspective on something like this.

Can you give me an example of a school in Europe or anywhere, with similar class sizes or teacher/pupil ratio to Ireland, where masks are not mandatory, where if possible just 1m social distance is to be achieved, and where similar guidelines to Ireland are followed, where there has been a successful return to school? Genuine question.

I agree with your general point that other nation's are more used to dealing with trauma than us and also I agree that pupils have to get back to school, but there's room for more nuance than repeatedly shouting "the schools have to go back, end of" and dismissing any concerns with disparaging remarks

khalessi

Another type of Irish classroom MM will be running to tomorrow I'm sure

https://twitter.com/sfaysocialist/status/1296485244644872194

ACitizenErased

I’ll let my grandmother know Jim_Hodge is very disappointed in her

Non solum non ambulabit

Ce he sin wrote: »

I'm afraid I am. Here are the figures for intensive care:
6 Aug 42
7 Aug 42
8 Aug 43
9 Aug 45
10 Aug 46
11 Aug 49
12 Aug 53
13 Aug 55
14 Aug 56
15 Aug 55
16 Aug 56
17 Aug 58
18 Aug 58
19 Aug 66
20 Aug 68


Yes, the numbers are low compared to a couple of months ago, but they're up more than 50% in two weeks. It won't take long for the numbers to become large again.

Are these numbers correct? If so, Italy is doing superb

Eod100

khalessi wrote: »

Another type of Irish classroom MM will be running to tomorrow I'm sure

https://twitter.com/sfaysocialist/status/1296485244644872194

Wasn't he a secondary school teacher himself? He said he isn't in politics for the money, would he go back?

Hawthorn Tree

This Clifden party with FF+FG will make people so angry now. The government have completely lost their authority in recent weeks.

road_high

road_high wrote: »

Sadly we’re not a very practical stoic nation. Many are very easily panicked and tend to hit the emotional button at every given opportunity. They’re not capable of calmly looking at statistics and demand a zero risk approach to all life which just isn’t practical. That’s why it’s such a meal getting schools/anything reopened. Plus welfare and public expenditure is too freely available there’s little incentive to get back to a (As possible) normal productive life.
Countries in Europe have been through far worse in their recent histories, we stood back from all that as we usually do which may have given us a greater sense of perspective on something like this.

We are a relatively wealthy western european country. Why would people take unnecessary risks unless they had no choice? Those other countries you refer to probably didn't have a choice in their situations. Previous generations in this country went through plenty of "hard times". The famine, civil war, depopulation of the country from 1850s to 1970s, the troubles, complete banking collapse. Plenty of hard times there, but you don't make a bad situation worse.

Always_Running

April 16th was brought up at this evenings press conference. Was it the peak date? For comparison and some perspective.

Cases - April 16th 629 v today 136
Deaths - April 16th 43 v today 1
People in hospital - April 16th 865 v today 17
People in ICU - April 16th 144 v today 6