Covid 19 Part XXI-27,908 in ROI (1,777 deaths) 6,647 in NI (559 deaths)(22/08)Read OP

lukas8888

yourdeadwright wrote: »

Its so strange because if you meet him he's the last person you'd imagine would come across this info ,
He stuck it on our wats ap group and everyone laughed thought he was taking the piss as usual but he hasn't been wrong yet,
Iv only posted it yesterday but have been getting them for a few weeks now ,

I am not going to be greedy,not looking for tomorrows lotto numbers,the winner of the next race today in Killarney will do

plodder

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Dublin cases have risen considerably.

As stated above, it's 3 cases per 100,000 (assuming 1.3 million pop.). Still pretty low.

ACitizenErased

plodder wrote: »

3 cases per 100,000 (assuming 1.3 million pop.). Still pretty low.

Dublin’s 14 day incidence is 19.3 and rising, higher than 17 other counties.

Always_Running

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Our new cmo, yourdeadwright, has already released today’s numbers

Let's hope he's right. On recent reported deaths how many actually happened this month does anyone know?

Oranage2

ACitizenErased wrote: »

13,000

That's positive, it looks like the positives to tests taken is lowering

MickeyLeari

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Dublin’s 14 day incidence is 19.3 and rising, higher than 17 other counties.

Well that is a different context. What is kildare’s?

tobefrank321

MickeyLeari wrote: »

Dublin has a population of 1.35m so on that basis the daily incidence is 3.2 per 100,000 population. That compares with the national figure of 26.6 per 100,000 (14 day average).

How worried are you?

Dublin is high density though, public transport, etc. One infected person could have multiple contacts in one day. Offaly and Laois are lower density and easier to control it there.

It could easily take off in Dublin and some form of lockdown may be needed to stop people spreading it.

ACitizenErased

https://twitter.com/sandra_hurley/status/1296818850781110277?s=20

ACitizenErased

MickeyLeari wrote: »

Well that is a different context. What is kildare’s?

MickeyLeari

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Dublin is high density though, public transport, etc. One infected person could have multiple contacts in one day. Offaly and Laois are lower density and easier to control it there.

It could easily take off in Dublin and some form of lockdown may be needed to stop people spreading it.

I think if Dublin is locked down then we are in all sorts of trouble.

Irish Steve

Deleted User wrote: »

https://covid19ireland-geohive.hub.arcgis.com/

10 to 12 days is the mean time to hospitalisation not 3 to 4 weeks, and for most countries , in the initial surge, deaths spiked within 10 days of cases spiking

Your point? I think I just mentioned that from contact to becoming apparent is 2 to 14 days, so if you're in the pub this evening, and pick up Covid from someone that's asymptomatic, it could be Sept 5th before it becomes apparent to you that you have Covid, assuming that you do display symptoms, which may not be the case.

If it then takes up to 2 weeks for you to become sufficiently ill to require hospitalisation, that's somewhere around Sept 19th, so effectively about a month behind the infection date, which I think is the period of time I used.

So, the people in hospital today were possibly infected somwhere around July 23rd, maybe earlier, depending on how long they've been in hospital, and if we look at the number of cases per day a month ago, they were a lot lower than they are now.

As someone commented a few pages back, given the massive increase in numbers recently, the die is already cast, and all we can do now is work as hard as possible to prevent the numbers going even higher than they are today, which is going to be achieved by doing the things we already know about, separation, masks, hand hygiene and isolation of people with symptoms.

Along with the things we can all do, we need Government to step up to the plate and get their act together on testing and tracing, and if that means testing everyone in a specific area because they don't know where it's coming from, then that is what HAS to be done to stop it, not wring their collective hands together and say " we don't know".

The fact that we have a significant percentage of people across the spectrum of Irish society that seem to unable to get their heads around these fundamental issues is not helping us at all, the difference between Wuhan and Dublin is that when the Chinese did lock down, they did it across the board, and did mandatory mass testing, because the penalties for not doing so were real, and enforced, whereas the attitude here is very evidently "shore, it'll be grand".

Reminds me of a Ballymun resident who said to Joe Duffy when Charlie's tax issues came into the public domain, "shore, wasn't he a cute hoor to get away with it for as long as he did". Seems like not a lot has changed in some areas of Irish Life.

Laissez faire attitudes is what's allowing Covid to come back at us, probably assisted by the absence of testing of people coming in or back into Ireland after trips abroad.

brendanwalsh

yourdeadwright wrote: »

Better late than never

80 cases , 43 Dublin, 10 Kildare 3 Laois

0 deaths

Wrong again

plodder

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Dublin’s 14 day incidence is 19.3 and rising, higher than 17 other counties.

How is that calculated? If it's a moving average, would today's number not cause it to drop?

Derek Zoolander

ACitizenErased wrote: »

would be interesting to see updated with 2020 census - I think total population was increased by 200k and have to imagine most of that would be Dublin and commuter belt based - could change the incidence rate per population...

plodder

brendanwalsh wrote: »

Wrong again

He was right yesterday.

ACitizenErased

plodder wrote: »

How is that calculated? If it's a moving average, would today's number not cause it to drop?

Cases over the last 14 days / population in 100000s
So today would add 43 (if thats right) and take away 5 (the number in dublin this day 2 weeks ago) to 260 and divide by same amount, meaning an increased incidence (approx 22 from 19, increase of 3) and overtaking Kilkenny on the list

Assetbacked

ACitizenErased wrote: »

https://twitter.com/sandra_hurley/status/1296818850781110277?s=20

Lunacy.

fritzelly

Assetbacked wrote: »

Lunacy.

A certain EU commissioner will be getting burnt at the stake

AdamD

Irish Steve wrote: »

Your point? I think I just mentioned that from contact to becoming apparent is 2 to 14 days, so if you're in the pub this evening, and pick up Covid from someone that's asymptomatic, it could be Sept 5th before it becomes apparent to you that you have Covid, assuming that you do display symptoms, which may not be the case.

If it then takes up to 2 weeks for you to become sufficiently ill to require hospitalisation, that's somewhere around Sept 19th, so effectively about a month behind the infection date, which I think is the period of time I used.

So, the people in hospital today were possibly infected somwhere around July 23rd, maybe earlier, depending on how long they've been in hospital, and if we look at the number of cases per day a month ago, they were a lot lower than they are now.

As someone commented a few pages back, given the massive increase in numbers recently, the die is already cast, and all we can do now is work as hard as possible to prevent the numbers going even higher than they are today, which is going to be achieved by doing the things we already know about, separation, masks, hand hygiene and isolation of people with symptoms.

Along with the things we can all do, we need Government to step up to the plate and get their act together on testing and tracing, and if that means testing everyone in a specific area because they don't know where it's coming from, then that is what HAS to be done to stop it, not wring their collective hands together and say " we don't know".

The fact that we have a significant percentage of people across the spectrum of Irish society that seem to unable to get their heads around these fundamental issues is not helping us at all, the difference between Wuhan and Dublin is that when the Chinese did lock down, they did it across the board, and did mandatory mass testing, because the penalties for not doing so were real, and enforced, whereas the attitude here is very evidently "shore, it'll be grand".

Reminds me of a Ballymun resident who said to Joe Duffy when Charlie's tax issues came into the public domain, "shore, wasn't he a cute hoor to get away with it for as long as he did". Seems like not a lot has changed in some areas of Irish Life.

Laissez faire attitudes is what's allowing Covid to come back at us, probably assisted by the absence of testing of people coming in or back into Ireland after trips abroad.

So you've taken the max from 2-14 days to become infected and the next max from 2-14 days after being infected to being hospitalised to come up with 4 weeks delay between cases and hospitalisations.

Then some random ****e about Irish society. Great, but there's no way the average is 4 weeks, if anything they'd be the outliers.

Furthermore, given that testing isn't immediate (and often after somebody has displayed symptoms), and results aren't immediate, and our reporting of results also isn't immediate. Its likely most cases are 4-5 days in before they even hit our figures. So 4 weeks is again nonsense.

big syke

Oranage2 wrote: »

That's positive, it looks like the positives to tests taken is lowering

Correct. Really good news. One of the lowest % positive to number of tests in ages.

Date Positives Tests conducted % of Positive
21/08/2020 80 13080 0.611620795
20/08/2020 136 11416 1.191310441
19/08/2020 54 6192 0.872093023
18/08/2020 190 4339 4.378889145
17/08/2020 56 5533 1.012109163
16/08/2020 66 10352 0.63755796
15/08/2020 200 10663 1.875644753
14/08/2020 67 11327 0.591507019
13/08/2020 92 7072 1.300904977
12/08/2020 40 5843 0.684579839
11/08/2020 35 4026 0.86934923
10/08/2020 57 3874 1.471347445
09/08/2020 68 4107 1.655709764
08/08/2020 174 4880 3.56557377
07/08/2020 98 4980 1.967871486
06/08/2020 69 4833 1.427684668
05/08/2020 50 3761 1.329433661

PowerToWait

Irish Steve wrote: »

...........

Laissez faire attitudes is what's allowing Covid to come back at us, probably assisted by the absence of testing of people coming in or back into Ireland after trips abroad............

Very good post.

plodder

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Cases over the last 14 days / population in 100000s
So today would add 43 (if thats right) and take away 5 (the number in dublin this day 2 weeks ago) to 260 and divide by same amount, meaning an increased incidence (approx 22 from 19, increase of 3) and overtaking Kilkenny on the list

Thanks. Where would I find the daily figures for each county?

Professor Moriarty

fritzelly wrote: »

A certain EU commissioner will be getting burnt at the stake

That would not be in Ireland's interest.

ACitizenErased

plodder wrote: »

Thanks. Where would I find the daily figures for each county?

gov.ie/publications any statement from NPHET

speckle

Been a bit out of the loop. Question re my maths and covid.
Is 35% of 1733 = 606 responders
and
33 postives for antibodies out of 606= 5%???
Tried looking back for posts re sligo/Dublin antibody results post here so apologies if already answered.

froog

big syke wrote: »

Correct. Really good news. One of the lowest % positive to number of tests in ages.

Date Positives Tests conducted % of Positive
21/08/2020 80 13080 0.611620795
20/08/2020 136 11416 1.191310441
19/08/2020 54 6192 0.872093023
18/08/2020 190 4339 4.378889145
17/08/2020 56 5533 1.012109163
16/08/2020 66 10352 0.63755796
15/08/2020 200 10663 1.875644753
14/08/2020 67 11327 0.591507019
13/08/2020 92 7072 1.300904977
12/08/2020 40 5843 0.684579839
11/08/2020 35 4026 0.86934923
10/08/2020 57 3874 1.471347445
09/08/2020 68 4107 1.655709764
08/08/2020 174 4880 3.56557377
07/08/2020 98 4980 1.967871486
06/08/2020 69 4833 1.427684668
05/08/2020 50 3761 1.329433661

i'm not sure how much we can read into this to be honest. way more people are looking for tests now if they have a sniffle or headache etc. so you would expect the % positive to be lower. the total figure is still much more important imo.

put it this way - if you tested everyone in the country tomorrow your % positive rate would be miniscule but you could still have a few hundred cases.

GeorgeBailey

Don't think Dublin will be locked down but gonna buy a set of golf clubs just in case

ACitizenErased

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I have said all along we need to blow the bridges on the Shannon and that table re-enforces that

Irish Steve

Irish Steve wrote: »

Your point? I think I just mentioned that from contact to becoming apparent is 2 to 14 days, so if you're in the pub this evening, and pick up Covid from someone that's asymptomatic, it could be Sept 5th before it becomes apparent to you that you have Covid, assuming that you do display symptoms, which may not be the case.

If it then takes up to 2 weeks for you to become sufficiently ill to require hospitalisation, that's somewhere around Sept 19th, so effectively about a month behind the infection date, which I think is the period of time I used.

So, the people in hospital today were possibly infected somwhere around July 23rd, maybe earlier, depending on how long they've been in hospital, and if we look at the number of cases per day a month ago, they were a lot lower than they are now.

As someone commented a few pages back, given the massive increase in numbers recently, the die is already cast, and all we can do now is work as hard as possible to prevent the numbers going even higher than they are today, which is going to be achieved by doing the things we already know about, separation, masks, hand hygiene and isolation of people with symptoms.

Along with the things we can all do, we need Government to step up to the plate and get their act together on testing and tracing, and if that means testing everyone in a specific area because they don't know where it's coming from, then that is what HAS to be done to stop it, not wring their collective hands together and say " we don't know".

The fact that we have a significant percentage of people across the spectrum of Irish society that seem to unable to get their heads around these fundamental issues is not helping us at all, the difference between Wuhan and Dublin is that when the Chinese did lock down, they did it across the board, and did mandatory mass testing, because the penalties for not doing so were real, and enforced, whereas the attitude here is very evidently "shore, it'll be grand".

Reminds me of a Ballymun resident who said to Joe Duffy when Charlie's tax issues came into the public domain, "shore, wasn't he a cute hoor to get away with it for as long as he did". Seems like not a lot has changed in some areas of Irish Life.

Laissez faire attitudes is what's allowing Covid to come back at us, probably assisted by the absence of testing of people coming in or back into Ireland after trips abroad.

Up to 14 days. Very few actually take 14 days

Always_Running

big syke wrote: »

Correct. Really good news. One of the lowest % positive to number of tests in ages.

Date Positives Tests conducted % of Positive
21/08/2020 80 13080 0.611620795
20/08/2020 136 11416 1.191310441
19/08/2020 54 6192 0.872093023
18/08/2020 190 4339 4.378889145
17/08/2020 56 5533 1.012109163
16/08/2020 66 10352 0.63755796
15/08/2020 200 10663 1.875644753
14/08/2020 67 11327 0.591507019
13/08/2020 92 7072 1.300904977
12/08/2020 40 5843 0.684579839
11/08/2020 35 4026 0.86934923
10/08/2020 57 3874 1.471347445
09/08/2020 68 4107 1.655709764
08/08/2020 174 4880 3.56557377
07/08/2020 98 4980 1.967871486
06/08/2020 69 4833 1.427684668
05/08/2020 50 3761 1.329433661

Excellent news.

MickeyLeari

Time to lock down again and forget any notion of opening up the schools. The system has shown it cannot cope so what is the point of trying to open up and put people in danger. My only request is that there should also be a curfew on the feral youth who are causing hassle for many people - bring in the army if needed.

ACitizenErased

MickeyLeari wrote: »

Time to lock down again and forget any notion of opening up the schools. The system has shown it cannot cope so what is the point of trying to open up and put people in danger. My only request is that there should also be a curfew on the feral youth who are causing hassle for many people - bring in the army if needed.

Paddy is that you?

MickeyLeari

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Paddy is that you?

Not at all. Had my Road to Damascus moment.

froog

anyway my positive post for the day:

both global cases and deaths are trending downwards just about.

and in ireland, it doesn't appear like we are going completely out of control like the first time around, i would tentatively suggest we may have plateaued at this 50-200 cases a day level and hopefully that will come down.

ACitizenErased

MickeyLeari wrote: »

Not at all. Had my Road to Damascus moment.

The fact you think "feral youth" is to blame means your suggestion is probably not worth considering

Gruffalux

The cure.

https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1296721291047772160?s=19

MickeyLeari

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Up to 14 days. Very few actually take 14 days

I understand it can be up to 21 days. Lock down and close the borders.

fritzelly

Gruffalox wrote: »

The cure.

https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1296721291047772160?s=19

Just need some willing participants now :rolleyes:

MickeyLeari

ACitizenErased wrote: »

The fact you think "feral youth" is to blame means your suggestion is probably not worth considering

They are not to blame. That would just be an added benefit. They built a fancy new bike path near me but I cannot use at the moment. You might have read about that.

In respect to my key lock down point - there are many doctors and academics who consider we should eradicate the virus. Opening up did not work, so maybe we give their strategy a go. Many here support that view and I disagreed for some time but maybe it is the best way.

What Username Guidelines

Irish Steve wrote: »

Your point? I think I just mentioned that from contact to becoming apparent is 2 to 14 days, so if you're in the pub this evening, and pick up Covid from someone that's asymptomatic, it could be Sept 5th before it becomes apparent to you that you have Covid, assuming that you do display symptoms, which may not be the case.

If it then takes up to 2 weeks for you to become sufficiently ill to require hospitalisation, that's somewhere around Sept 19th, so effectively about a month behind the infection date, which I think is the period of time I used.

So, the people in hospital today were possibly infected somwhere around July 23rd, maybe earlier, depending on how long they've been in hospital, and if we look at the number of cases per day a month ago, they were a lot lower than they are now.

As someone commented a few pages back, given the massive increase in numbers recently, the die is already cast, and all we can do now is work as hard as possible to prevent the numbers going even higher than they are today, which is going to be achieved by doing the things we already know about, separation, masks, hand hygiene and isolation of people with symptoms.

Along with the things we can all do, we need Government to step up to the plate and get their act together on testing and tracing, and if that means testing everyone in a specific area because they don't know where it's coming from, then that is what HAS to be done to stop it, not wring their collective hands together and say " we don't know".

The fact that we have a significant percentage of people across the spectrum of Irish society that seem to unable to get their heads around these fundamental issues is not helping us at all, the difference between Wuhan and Dublin is that when the Chinese did lock down, they did it across the board, and did mandatory mass testing, because the penalties for not doing so were real, and enforced, whereas the attitude here is very evidently "shore, it'll be grand".

Reminds me of a Ballymun resident who said to Joe Duffy when Charlie's tax issues came into the public domain, "shore, wasn't he a cute hoor to get away with it for as long as he did". Seems like not a lot has changed in some areas of Irish Life.

Laissez faire attitudes is what's allowing Covid to come back at us, probably assisted by the absence of testing of people coming in or back into Ireland after trips abroad.

The problem here is, 4 weeks ago our numbers were low, and the people admitted to hospital today wouldn't have been reported 4 weeks ago, they'd be the people in the pub, getting infected. If they did display symptoms 2 weeks later (pretty much the max barring some outliers) and called GP, get test, get results, get included in reported figures, you're now (at best) 3-4 days later, likely a week later.

Day 8-10 are avg for when symptoms improve or worsen resulting in hospitalisation, so it's really within the same week it's reported that a case may hit hospital.

After that, it can be a matter of days or months (ICU) before death if they are severe, so it's difficult to tell, our deaths actually peaked before infections peaked.

We're a couple of weeks into far higher reported numbers now and seeing no surge in hospitalisations just yet, if at all.

Gruffalux

fritzelly wrote: »

Just need some willing participants now :rolleyes:

Covidv antibodies breast milk ice cubes in smoothies would be very 2020.

Irish Steve

Deleted User wrote: »

Up to 14 days. Very few actually take 14 days

Aware of that, but I was trying to put the other end of the spectrum, as there are too many people trying to say that the present hospital numbers means that there's not a problem, even with the positives rising as they are.

Between incubation and then time for the symptoms to become bad enough to require hospitalisation, there is a period of time between 14 and 28 days. That point is being conveniently ignored by the people who want to continue with life as if nothing is wrong.

The problem with this and similar threads is that they are so fast moving, it's hard to keep a flow on specific discussions, and some of the weeny waving about the numbers being 2 or 3, and the like, are serving to dilute the clarity of some of the specific facts of what's actually happening.

Irish Steve

Irish Steve wrote: »

Aware of that, but I was trying to put the other end of the spectrum, as there are too many people trying to say that the present hospital numbers means that there's not a problem, even with the positives rising as they are.

Between incubation and then time for the symptoms to become bad enough to require hospitalisation, there is a period of time between 14 and 28 days. That point is being conveniently ignored by the people who want to continue with life as if nothing is wrong.

The problem with this and similar threads is that they are so fast moving, it's hard to keep a flow on specific discussions, and some of the weeny waving about the numbers being 2 or 3, and the like, are serving to dilute the clarity of some of the specific facts of what's actually happening.

Better to assume 5-6 days incubation. 95% of cases have symptoms by then. 14 days are outliers. Average hospitalisation is probably just over 2 weeks from infection.

ACitizenErased

The majority of people who end up in hospital do so after 5-8 days of symptoms.

Among patients who developed severe disease, the median time to dyspnea from the onset of illness or symptoms ranged from 5 to 8 days, the median time to acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) from the onset of illness or symptoms ranged from 8 to 12 days, and the median time to ICU admission from the onset of illness or symptoms ranged from 10 to 12 days. Clinicians should be aware of the potential for some patients to rapidly deteriorate one week after illness onset.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/clinical-guidance-management-patients.html

Doctor Jimbob

Gruffalox wrote: »

Covidv antibodies breast milk ice cubes in smoothies would be very 2020.

Right, that's plenty of internet for today

DevilsHaircut

podgeandrodge wrote: »

Perhaps one of them is an ex-wife and he has since re-married. I know people that refer to their ex-wives as their wives still. Perhaps he didn't feel the need to go into detail with you!

Whoooosh :rolleyes:

DevilsHaircut

Gerry Hatrick wrote: »

That's worrying for Dublin.

Not really, as the population of Dublin is 1.3 million.

caveat emptor

podgeandrodge wrote: »

Perhaps one of them is an ex-wife and he has since re-married. I know people that refer to their ex-wives as their wives still. Perhaps he didn't feel the need to go into detail with you!

podgeandrodge

DevilsHaircut wrote: »

Whoooosh :rolleyes:

Whoooosh? I'm well aware of the history of the slagging going back and forth between the 2. Only saying one never knows the full story!

Sunrise.Sunset

Irish Steve wrote: »

Your point? I think I just mentioned that from contact to becoming apparent is 2 to 14 days, so if you're in the pub this evening, and pick up Covid from someone that's asymptomatic, it could be Sept 5th before it becomes apparent to you that you have Covid, assuming that you do display symptoms, which may not be the case.

If it then takes up to 2 weeks for you to become sufficiently ill to require hospitalisation, that's somewhere around Sept 19th, so effectively about a month behind the infection date, which I think is the period of time I used.

So, the people in hospital today were possibly infected somwhere around July 23rd, maybe earlier, depending on how long they've been in hospital, and if we look at the number of cases per day a month ago, they were a lot lower than they are now.

As someone commented a few pages back, given the massive increase in numbers recently, the die is already cast, and all we can do now is work as hard as possible to prevent the numbers going even higher than they are today, which is going to be achieved by doing the things we already know about, separation, masks, hand hygiene and isolation of people with symptoms.

Along with the things we can all do, we need Government to step up to the plate and get their act together on testing and tracing, and if that means testing everyone in a specific area because they don't know where it's coming from, then that is what HAS to be done to stop it, not wring their collective hands together and say " we don't know".

The fact that we have a significant percentage of people across the spectrum of Irish society that seem to unable to get their heads around these fundamental issues is not helping us at all, the difference between Wuhan and Dublin is that when the Chinese did lock down, they did it across the board, and did mandatory mass testing, because the penalties for not doing so were real, and enforced, whereas the attitude here is very evidently "shore, it'll be grand".

Reminds me of a Ballymun resident who said to Joe Duffy when Charlie's tax issues came into the public domain, "shore, wasn't he a cute hoor to get away with it for as long as he did". Seems like not a lot has changed in some areas of Irish Life.

Laissez faire attitudes is what's allowing Covid to come back at us, probably assisted by the absence of testing of people coming in or back into Ireland after trips abroad.

Very good post.

I have a friend working in a private capacity. She's a home care worker as a nanny. She's working for a GP and another professional and the public health guidelines seems to have gone by the parents heads. There has been plenty of gatherings within the family. There was no isolation with colds and no testing for covid even though and diagnosed as 100% not covid even though there was no test.


If a GP can't understand to keep contacts low to minimise contracting the virus and isolate if feeling unwell to minimise spreading the virus what hope does the rest of the population have?

My friend is now at a loss. She wants minimise chances of contracting the virus but her job doesn't allow that. She wants to protect her family from the virus. She's in a vulnerable situation. Small children need close contact for their care. She has no PPE to protect herself and the parents don't seem to care to isolate their family away from her when they have some symptoms. They are also actively flaunting guidelines putting her more at risk.
She can't find a new job quick enough.