Covid 19 Part XXI-27,908 in ROI (1,777 deaths) 6,647 in NI (559 deaths)(22/08)Read OP

caveat emptor

Another good news talk summary.

https://twitter.com/NewstalkFM/status/1296823668799045634?s=20

DevilsHaircut

speckle wrote: »

Been a bit out of the loop. Question re my maths and covid.
Is 35% of 1733 = 606 responders
and
33 postives for antibodies out of 606= 5%???
Tried looking back for posts re sligo/Dublin antibody results post here so apologies if already answered.

There was an abysmal response to the antibody survey; only 35% of those selected agreed to take part. They 'weighted' the results.

No really #InThisTogether.

28 antibody positive in Dublin, and 5 in Sligo (=3.1%, 0.6%).

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/scopi/SCOPI%20report%20preliminary%20results%20final%20version.pdf?utm_source=social&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=scopireportresults&utm_content=20.08.2020

is_that_so

Irish Steve wrote: »

Aware of that, but I was trying to put the other end of the spectrum, as there are too many people trying to say that the present hospital numbers means that there's not a problem, even with the positives rising as they are.

Between incubation and then time for the symptoms to become bad enough to require hospitalisation, there is a period of time between 14 and 28 days. That point is being conveniently ignored by the people who want to continue with life as if nothing is wrong.

The problem with this and similar threads is that they are so fast moving, it's hard to keep a flow on specific discussions, and some of the weeny waving about the numbers being 2 or 3, and the like, are serving to dilute the clarity of some of the specific facts of what's actually happening.

The argument is that many of these new cases are not happening to at risk groups and that their symptoms, on the whole, are mild enough not to support this hypothesis. We are also containing the spread and finding cases a lot better than back in March.

ACitizenErased

DevilsHaircut wrote: »

There was an abysmal response to the antibody survey; only 35% of those selected agreed to take part. They 'weighted' the results.

No really #InThisTogether.

28 antibody positive in Dublin, and 5 in Sligo (=3.1%, 0.6%).

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/scopi/SCOPI%20report%20preliminary%20results%20final%20version.pdf?utm_source=social&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=scopireportresults&utm_content=20.08.2020

That's actually laughable results for a study.

BorneTobyWilde

Ellen blew a lot of people Wednesday night,Shirley helped, If virus is airborne as they claim, the its blown out to sea, a lot of what was in the air? Is that even possible?

Ger Roe

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Ellen blew a lot of people Wednesday night,Shirley helped, If virus is airborne as they claim, the its blown out to sea, a lot of what was in the air? Is that even possible?

Ehhhh, No!.

drunkmonkey

froog wrote: »

anyway my positive post for the day:

both global cases and deaths are trending downwards just about.

and in ireland, it doesn't appear like we are going completely out of control like the first time around, i would tentatively suggest we may have plateaued at this 50-200 cases a day level and hopefully that will come down.

We didn't have a first time around if the antibodie study was anything to go by, 99% still to be infected. We had a cock up with the nursing homes.

MickeyLeari

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Ellen blew a lot of people Wednesday night,Shirley helped, If virus is airborne as they claim, the its blown out to sea, a lot of what was in the air? Is that even possible?

That’s an interesting theory. But could it have blown the virus from Kildare to Dublin and not reached the sea in which case we are in trouble.

Jim_Hodge

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Ellen blew a lot of people Wednesday night,Shirley helped, If virus is airborne as they claim, the its blown out to sea, a lot of what was in the air? Is that even possible?

Sorry, that's so ridiculous it's quite funny.

BorneTobyWilde

Ger Roe wrote: »

Ehhhh, No!.

Yea well I recall someone on radio claiming someone sneezing on a beach could hit the person at other end of beach if wind was going in that direction

DevilsHaircut

ACitizenErased wrote: »

That's actually laughable results for a study.

T-cells, bro.

They don't stop you getting infected and infecting others.

Gruffalux

ACitizenErased wrote: »

That's actually laughable results for a study.

Yes I was thinking that last night. 33 positives in a study led to a confident assertion of 1.7% national seroprevalence.

billybonkers

What time can we expect the announcement this evening?

ACitizenErased

Gruffalox wrote: »

Yes I was thinking that last night. 33 positives in a study led to a confident assertion of 1.7% national seroprevalence.

Sounds about right for Ireland, a shambles of a study

JP Liz V1

Would the capital city Dublin be lockdowned, I doubt it could, is there a briefing tonight besides the grovelling government shambles

wadacrack

DevilsHaircut wrote: »

There was an abysmal response to the antibody survey; only 35% of those selected agreed to take part. They 'weighted' the results.

No really #InThisTogether.

28 antibody positive in Dublin, and 5 in Sligo (=3.1%, 0.6%).

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/scopi/SCOPI%20report%20preliminary%20results%20final%20version.pdf?utm_source=social&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=scopireportresults&utm_content=20.08.2020

I wasn't aware on that, Should not have bothered publishing the results to the media. Its obviously very flawed with such low numbers

What Username Guidelines

DevilsHaircut wrote: »

There was an abysmal response to the antibody survey; only 35% of those selected agreed to take part. They 'weighted' the results.

No really #InThisTogether.

28 antibody positive in Dublin, and 5 in Sligo (=3.1%, 0.6%).

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/scopi/SCOPI%20report%20preliminary%20results%20final%20version.pdf?utm_source=social&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=scopireportresults&utm_content=20.08.2020

Jesus Christ. Should have just abandoned it, or used another method (blood donors, etc) when they saw that much of an uptake.

Irish Steve

Irish Steve wrote: »

Aware of that, but I was trying to put the other end of the spectrum, as there are too many people trying to say that the present hospital numbers means that there's not a problem, even with the positives rising as they are.

Between incubation and then time for the symptoms to become bad enough to require hospitalisation, there is a period of time between 14 and 28 days. That point is being conveniently ignored by the people who want to continue with life as if nothing is wrong.

The problem with this and similar threads is that they are so fast moving, it's hard to keep a flow on specific discussions, and some of the weeny waving about the numbers being 2 or 3, and the like, are serving to dilute the clarity of some of the specific facts of what's actually happening.

Maybe it hasn't been long enough in Ireland. But it has been more than long enough in the UK and Germany etc. There has been well over a month of high infection levels and no commensurate increase in hospitalisations, let alone deaths.

JP Liz V1

Gruffalox wrote: »

The cure.

https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1296721291047772160?s=19

fritzelly wrote: »

Just need some willing participants now :rolleyes:

Tit for Tat

DevilsHaircut

wadacrack wrote: »

I wasn't aware on that, Should not have bothered publishing the results to the media. Its obviously very flawed with such low numbers

Agreed. And those who did take part would be skewed in favour of people who thought they'd had it.

Cillian de Gascún in his pre-publicity said 'the rate was slightly higher in Dublin than in Sligo'.

It was 6 times as high.


https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/coronavirus-ireland-has-no-significant-herd-immunity-study-shows-1.4308216

MickeyLeari

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Maybe it hasn't been long enough in Ireland. But it has been more than long enough in the UK and Germany etc. There has been well over a month of high infection levels and no commensurate increase in hospitalisations, let alone deaths.

But we have a crap health service and will not be able to cope. There are only about 100 free Beds in the system now. We cannot deal with any spike.

plodder

DevilsHaircut wrote: »

There was an abysmal response to the antibody survey; only 35% of those selected agreed to take part. They 'weighted' the results.

No really #InThisTogether.

28 antibody positive in Dublin, and 5 in Sligo (=3.1%, 0.6%).

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/scopi/SCOPI%20report%20preliminary%20results%20final%20version.pdf?utm_source=social&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=scopireportresults&utm_content=20.08.2020

Disappointing response rate, but they could hardly force people to take part.

The one thing these studies can't measure though is the percentage of people that were exposed to the virus, but never got infected, or not enough to register an antibody response.

DevilsHaircut

DevilsHaircut wrote: »

There was an abysmal response to the antibody survey; only 35% of those selected agreed to take part. They 'weighted' the results.

No really #InThisTogether.

28 antibody positive in Dublin, and 5 in Sligo (=3.1%, 0.6%).

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/scopi/SCOPI%20report%20preliminary%20results%20final%20version.pdf?utm_source=social&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=scopireportresults&utm_content=20.08.2020

Jesus that’s an horrendous study. About the only conclusion that can be drawn is some people had it

ACitizenErased

I'm surprised there was such low uptake tbh, I'd happily take part if it meant I'd found out if I recently had it

KrustyUCC

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I'm surprised there was such low uptake tbh, I'd happily take part if it meant I'd found out if I recently had it

They don't tell people afterwards whether they have antibodies or not unfortunately

speckle

DevilsHaircut wrote: »

There was an abysmal response to the antibody survey; only 35% of those selected agreed to take part. They 'weighted' the results.

No really #InThisTogether.

28 antibody positive in Dublin, and 5 in Sligo (=3.1%, 0.6%).

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/scopi/SCOPI%20report%20preliminary%20results%20final%20version.pdf?utm_source=social&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=scopireportresults&utm_content=20.08.2020

Thanks for the link, understand now that I have seen the weighting. Very low numbers of participants, maybe they should test cork and kerry due to early community/cases for antibody postives and Tcell responses.
Thanks to the 606 people who did participate whoever you are.

ACitizenErased

KrustyUCC wrote: »

They don't tell people afterwards whether they have antibodies or not unfortunately

Oh. Well that's probably why nobody took part.

is_that_so

speckle wrote: »

Thanks for the link, understand now that I have seen the weighting. Very low numbers of participants, maybe they should test cork and kerry due to early community/cases for antibody postives and Tcell responses.
Thanks to the 606 people who did participate whoever you are.

High v Low incidence was the framework for the study.

Atlantic Dawn

Straight in with the knife, lol.

Spanish Eyes

Well Laois and Offaly restrictions lifted, Kildare for another two weeks but all schools including Kildare will open.

Just on Newstalk now.

Tippex

MM doesn't have the bottle to stand up and take the flack what a F**king coward.

When in any of these other press conferences have they not been lead by the So called leader of the country?

yourdeadwright

brendanwalsh wrote: »

Wrong again

The info i posted was correct yesterday ?
Why do you say todays wrong ?

AdamD

Ah so the minister is a decent and honourable person. Not quite the same reaction as Berlin bar..

MD1990

Cases spread all across Kildare.
County is on lockdown. But schools are still opening. Cant blame many teachers especially older one's who dont go in.

ACitizenErased

Glynn seems quite confident community transmission is low in Kildare given the volume of cases that have arose there

fritzelly

Why is MM not announcing this? Leaving it to LV
Is he too scared to show his face now

is_that_so

fritzelly wrote: »

Why is MM not announcing this? Leaving it to LV
Is he too scared to show his face now

Leo is a lot better at it. Let MM loose in a Dail debate and you can see what he can do. Not good at speechifying.

ACitizenErased

Donnelly is completely unbearable

speckle

is_that_so wrote: »

High v Low incidence was the framework for the study.

thanks thats true, and then the results got weighted as not everyone chosen in the representative sample replied hence the 5 % became lower . All making sense now I thought I had forgotten how to do my maths.

wadacrack

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Glynn seems quite confident community transmission is low in Kildare given the volume of cases that have arose there

You should probably judge him on his actions not on how he seems. Their is still a lockdown in Kildare he is obviously still concerned

normanoffside

Donnelly is deferring the schools question to Glynn.
Glynn is a way better speaker and a lot more reassuring.

He should be minister for health.

ACitizenErased

wadacrack wrote: »

You should probably judge him on his actions not on how he seems. Their is still a lockdown in Kildare he is obviously still concerned

I'm judging him based on what he said. 16% community transmission in Kildare vs 20% nationwide. Only reason Kildare is still in lockdown is because of the sheer number of cases.

Atlantic Dawn

Bit of a row? Reminds me of the EU when Vin B tore in to them.

screamer

What a feeble response from Donnelly there to his reaction to the Clifden 81.
Where is Meehole? Hiding? Seems like it.

KrustyUCC

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Oh. Well that's probably why nobody took part.

It certainly would put me off taking part anyway

ACitizenErased

Donnelly sounds like he's trying to get a job narrating some documentary

Martina1991

DevilsHaircut wrote:

There was an abysmal response to the antibody survey; only 35% of those selected agreed to take part. They 'weighted' the results.

I know someone who was selected for the study. The initial uptake was quite positive. Loads replied to the letter and answered the questionnaire about travel, symtoms etc.

Where it fell down was people just didnt turn up tp the hotel or wherever to have the actual blood sample taken.

KrustyUCC wrote:

They don't tell people afterwards whether they have antibodies or not unfortunately

The participants were told their results.
They got a letter a couple of weeks ago.

DevilsHaircut

Deleted User wrote: »

Jesus that’s an horrendous study. About the only conclusion that can be drawn is some people had it

I see it more as the response rate indicating the level of national cohesion.

Which, despite our constant refrains that 'we're in this together', is not the case.

Many, including the usual 'vested interest' suspects, care only about their optics.

paddyisreal

So take out the clusters and community transmission in kildare is the same as other counties, they haven't a clue what they are at. Meat factories back open and schools open, this is going to be some winter. Still people waiting in kildare chilling for test results 11 days and counting.

KrustyUCC

Martina1991 wrote: »

The participants were told their results.
They got a letter a couple of weeks ago.

Strange

I know two who did take part but haven't got any letters