Covid 19 Part XXI-27,908 in ROI (1,777 deaths) 6,647 in NI (559 deaths)(22/08)Read OP

KrustyUCC

froog wrote: »

yep i said "not good". not "jesus christ what?? that is NOT GOOD!!!"

Why do you believe "we need to go back a step or two and fast" ?

Two steps back would be phase one

Santy2015

Stevieluvsye wrote: »

What in gods jaysis name are you on about?

Another one of the tin foil hat and curtain twitching brigade. If you need curtains for your bay window that can sustain an unbelievable amount of twitching they are the people to get onto, that’s only if they leave the house first

JP Liz V1

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Some people on here need to go for a pint and chill out

Open all the pubs drunk lives matter

froog

1. it's only clusters
2. take dublin and kildare out and it's actually grand
3. there's 3 days there when the 7 day average was actually dropping by a small amount
4. those outbreaks in those 5 other countys we knew about already so that's grand

just stop lad :pac:

drunkmonkey

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

No concrete proof or fact just hearing of younger aged cases of individuals at the Kilkee party

Halting site was responsible for about 14 of the Clare cases. Not sure of exact numbers from the Kilkee party but it doesn't seem to be anything major.

ACitizenErased

i have been converted, shut the country down

Benimar

gmisk wrote: »

It's a rolling 7 day average I would say....

Correct, and it has gone up by 3.29 cases per day.

Yesterday’s was based on Aug 6-12, today’s is based on Aug 7-13. Cases in 6th were 69, cases on 13th (today) are 92. It’s a mathematical certainty it has gone up.

Emmersonn

Time to lockdown Dublin.

froog

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Why do you believe "we need to go back a step or two and fast" ?

Two steps back would be phase one

why do you think? what in the news the last few weeks would lead me to this conclusion. think hard now.

Gruffalux

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Sorry, your opinion really means so much to me that I will stop

Later on when you get on other people's wick and they snap at you, do not start up with the crap about how you are never nasty to anybody.

is_that_so

The Unbearables wrote: »

Open it all up spin merchants on overtime I see.

There are obsessives at both extremes. Our strategy into the medium term will be to live with this,manage it and open up society. In about 2 weeks close enough to 1m primary and secondary students will be starting back at school. It is the biggest opening up since this began and it has to happen.

JP Liz V1

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Halting site was responsible for about 14 of the Clare cases. Not sure of exact numbers from the Kilkee party but it doesn't seem to be anything major.

Do they play GAA :P

I thought the site was Wexford, was Clare another one too?

lee_baby_simms

froog wrote: »

it's because we have successfully protected those in high risk groups. and we need to keep it that way.

In the exact same way as every other country in the world? Why are the curves all so similar regardless of measures?

Boggles

Worrying up tick of community transmission the past couple of days.

70 cases outside known clusters or contacts with a minimum of 36% odd being unknown, probably more.

Too short a time frame to call it a trend.

The virus is certainly doing it's best to reseed itself.

KrustyUCC

froog wrote: »

why do you think? what in the news the last few weeks would lead me to this conclusion. think hard now.

Nothing in the news the last few weeks would suggest that we need to go back to phase one

It is not warranted

What are you basing your opinion on?

Non solum non ambulabit

ACitizenErased wrote: »

92 new cases
0 deaths

Backlog well and truly cleared

Yes. Expected as much.

froog

lee_baby_simms wrote: »

In the exact same way as every other country in the world? Why are the curves all so similar regardless of measures?

high risk groups are being super careful. younger people are not. this is why we have rising cases and less rises in hospitals. and the higher the cases get, the greater the risk for the high risk groups. so we need to protect them, and not cater to people annoyed at not being able to have a pint or go to a match.

drunkmonkey

is_that_so wrote: »

There are obsessives at both extremes. Our strategy into the medium term will be to live with this,manage it and open up society. In about 2 weeks close enough to 1m primary and secondary students will be starting back at school. It is the biggest opening up since this began and it has to happen.

It's an experiment based on no evidence it will work, the long term health implications for our youth could be huge and lead to massive future health care costs not to mention what it could to their parents.
Pubs were the place to study this not with children. If Leo and Michael have this one wrong they should be tarred and feathered.

Benimar

ACitizenErased wrote: »

i have been converted, shut the country down

Ah yes, because anyone who can’t clearly see how positive the numbers are if you take out anyone whose name starts with A (or similar BS) wants the country shut down.

Maybe we are just a bit concerned things are slipping and can see that there may be bigger problems ahead.

froog

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Nothing in the news the last few weeks would suggest that we need to go back to phase one

It is not warranted

What are you basing your opinion on?

the rising cases.

gmisk

Benimar wrote: »

Correct, and it has gone up by 3.29 cases per day.

Yesterday’s was based on Aug 6-12, today’s is based on Aug 7-13. Cases in 6th were 69, cases on 13th (today) are 92. It’s a mathematical certainty it has gone up.

Ah ok cheers I was only going by chart on that site

is_that_so

drunkmonkey wrote: »

There not high risk the evidence doesn't support that, I repeat 10 clusters from 46,000 pubs, we have 7,000 do the math on how risky they are.
There is no and I mean no evidence masks work outside a labatory, he had to even set the record straight when one of the Irish guys contradicted his point on them as he is an expert and an advisor to the WHO. It's not just his opinion, it's evidence based.

Do you want to link to this evidence or just trust some "expert"? COVID-19 really is to medical experts what 2009 was to economists, lots of noise and ego. Who is this guy anyway? Not sure what it is you're trying to say, the remaining pubs have been pushed out three more weeks, not indefinitely.

drunkmonkey

lee_baby_simms wrote: »

In the exact same way as every other country in the world? Why are the curves all so similar regardless of measures?

That's what a hotel manager in Clare told me last night, halting site in Ennis.

GooglePlus

Looks like it's back out there. We all know that what we're seeing in the figures isn't even half the picture but it does provide good trend analysis, which shows CT increasing.

We're looking at big countrywide increases in the very near future.

Ohmeha

gmisk wrote: »

Nope he is right.
80 on 11th august
78.3 on 12th
76.4 on 13th

But it was shooting up before that.

7 day rolling average is currently up marginally as of today, however as a health warning the case numbers are yo-yoing up and down this week and by Saturday 15th when you can exclude the large numbers cases on Fri 7th and Sat 8th then the 7 day average will trend downwards if the cases for the next 2 days average at even 80 per day, we'll see anyway

Day Month Date Cases 7 Day
Friday July 24th 20 16.71
Saturday July 25th 24 17.14
Sunday July 26th 12 17.43
Monday July 27th 11 18.14
Tuesday July 28th 40 18.71
Wednesday July 29th 14 18.29
Thursday July 30th 85 29.43
Friday July 31st 38 32.00
Saturday August 1st 45 35.00
Sunday August 2nd 53 40.86
Monday August 3rd 46 45.86
Tuesday August 4th 45 46.57
Wednesday August 5th 50 51.71
Thursday August 6th 69 49.43
Friday August 7th 98 58.00
Saturday August 8th 174 76.43
Sunday August 9th 68 78.57
Monday August 10th 57 80.14
Tuesday August 11th 35 78.71
Wednesday August 12th 40 77.29
Thursday August 13th 92 80.57

spookwoman

People are surprised in the increase in numbers? oh please where does it show people are surprised in the numbers no where but anyone who says 92 is not good are doom mongers.
Just because a some health official says oh the numbers will increase, I keep seeing the same meme in my head .

lee_baby_simms

froog wrote: »

high risk groups are being super careful. younger people are not. this is why we have rising cases and less rises in hospitals. and the higher the cases get, the greater the risk for the high risk groups. so we need to protect them, and not cater to people annoyed at not being able to have a pint or go to a match.

All across the world? From Belarus to Brazil?

This pandemic is over. It’s governments that are keeping it going with hyper testing resulting in meaningless cases that are followed by virtually no hospitalisations or deaths.

It’s madness.

drunkmonkey

is_that_so wrote: »

Do you want to link to this evidence or just trust some "expert"? COVID-19 really is to medical experts what 2009 was to economists, lots of noise. Who is this guy anyway? Not sure what it is you're trying to say, the remaining pubs have been pushed out three more weeks, not indefinitely.

There is no evidence that's his point, just one knee jerk reaction after the other.
I'm trying to say our Government is making it up as they go and cherry picking what they present as facts.
There is no evidence to support keeping pubs closed or mandatory mask. No evidence anywhere in the world.
The Denmark study will be interesting as it's the first of it's kind outside a labatory.

ACitizenErased

spookwoman wrote: »

People are surprised in the increase in numbers? oh please where does it show people are surprised in the numbers no where but anyone who says 92 is not good are doom mongers.
Just because a some health official says oh the numbers will increase, I keep seeing the same meme in my head .

Who said 92 is good? 92 without context is awful. Also you should really quote me when clearly responding to my posts.

is_that_so

spookwoman wrote: »

People are surprised in the increase in numbers? oh please where does it show people are surprised in the numbers no where but anyone who says 92 is not good are doom mongers.
Just because a some health official says oh the numbers will increase, I keep seeing the same meme in my head .

He also said we've tested lots of people in a particular location and we're seeing a high number of cases so not hard to "do the maths". That they believe they have under control.

KrustyUCC

froog wrote: »

the rising cases.

So you want the entire country to go back to phase one because of an increase largely in LOK and Dublin?

Just for a reminder this is what phase one entailed

https://www.gov.ie/en/publication/ad5dd0-easing-the-covid-19-restrictions-on-may-18-phase-1/

Even phase two would be a large step backwards

Jim_Hodge

gmisk wrote: »

It's a rolling 7 day average I would say....it doesn't matter if it's 92 today and 69 last Thursday it's a rolling average.

Correct. But the rolling average has gone up because the day value for dropping off is lower than today's.

froog

Ohmeha wrote: »

7 day rolling average is currently up marginally as of today, however as a health warning the case numbers are yo-yoing up and down this week and by Saturday 15th when you can exclude the large numbers cases on Fri 7th and Sat 8th then the 7 day average will trend downwards if the cases for the next 2 days average at even 80 per day, we'll see anyway

Day Month Date Cases 7 Day
Friday July 24th 20 16.71
Saturday July 25th 24 17.14
Sunday July 26th 12 17.43
Monday July 27th 11 18.14
Tuesday July 28th 40 18.71
Wednesday July 29th 14 18.29
Thursday July 30th 85 29.43
Friday July 31st 38 32.00
Saturday August 1st 45 35.00
Sunday August 2nd 53 40.86
Monday August 3rd 46 45.86
Tuesday August 4th 45 46.57
Wednesday August 5th 50 51.71
Thursday August 6th 69 49.43
Friday August 7th 98 58.00
Saturday August 8th 174 76.43
Sunday August 9th 68 78.57
Monday August 10th 57 80.14
Tuesday August 11th 35 78.71
Wednesday August 12th 40 77.29
Thursday August 13th 92 80.57

but it's going down in this bit here :pac:

gmisk

Ohmeha wrote: »

7 day rolling average is currently up marginally as of today, however as a health warning the case numbers are yo-yoing up and down this week and by Saturday 15th when you can exclude the large numbers cases on Fri 7th and Sat 8th then the 7 day average will trend downwards if the cases for the next 2 days average at even 80 per day, we'll see anyway

Day Month Date Cases 7 Day
Friday July 24th 20 16.71
Saturday July 25th 24 17.14
Sunday July 26th 12 17.43
Monday July 27th 11 18.14
Tuesday July 28th 40 18.71
Wednesday July 29th 14 18.29
Thursday July 30th 85 29.43
Friday July 31st 38 32.00
Saturday August 1st 45 35.00
Sunday August 2nd 53 40.86
Monday August 3rd 46 45.86
Tuesday August 4th 45 46.57
Wednesday August 5th 50 51.71
Thursday August 6th 69 49.43
Friday August 7th 98 58.00
Saturday August 8th 174 76.43
Sunday August 9th 68 78.57
Monday August 10th 57 80.14
Tuesday August 11th 35 78.71
Wednesday August 12th 40 77.29
Thursday August 13th 92 80.57

Thanks for that great to have some accurate facts posted

gmisk

froog wrote: »

but it's going down in this bit here :pac:

Alright trump lol

is_that_so

drunkmonkey wrote: »

There is no evidence that's his point, just one knee jerk reaction after the other.
I'm trying to say our Government is making it up as they go and cherry picking what they present as facts.
There is no evidence to support keeping pubs closed or mandatory mask. No evidence anywhere in the world.
The Denmark study will be interesting as it's the first of it's kind outside a labatory.

I am curious who he is. If he's that crackpot Swede who said we'd have lots more cases I'd be reaching for the salt. As for pubs remember the Tyrol resort and the skiing in February, with the packed bars, the Korean nightclubs and how many cases came out of them? That too is evidence.

ACitizenErased

Ohmeha wrote: »

7 day rolling average is currently up marginally as of today, however as a health warning the case numbers are yo-yoing up and down this week and by Saturday 15th when you can exclude the large numbers cases on Fri 7th and Sat 8th then the 7 day average will trend downwards if the cases for the next 2 days average at even 80 per day, we'll see anyway

Day Month Date Cases 7 Day
Friday July 24th 20 16.71
Saturday July 25th 24 17.14
Sunday July 26th 12 17.43
Monday July 27th 11 18.14
Tuesday July 28th 40 18.71
Wednesday July 29th 14 18.29
Thursday July 30th 85 29.43
Friday July 31st 38 32.00
Saturday August 1st 45 35.00
Sunday August 2nd 53 40.86
Monday August 3rd 46 45.86
Tuesday August 4th 45 46.57
Wednesday August 5th 50 51.71
Thursday August 6th 69 49.43
Friday August 7th 98 58.00
Saturday August 8th 174 76.43
Sunday August 9th 68 78.57
Monday August 10th 57 80.14
Tuesday August 11th 35 78.71
Wednesday August 12th 40 77.29
Thursday August 13th 92 80.57

Worth pointing out that the 7 day average is being heavily skewed by the 174 cases on one day in the last week. It will likely drop quite dramatically over the next 2 days as long as we report less than 80 on those days. 5 day average sits at 58.

Jim_Hodge

froog wrote: »

but it's going down in this bit here :pac:

You're confusing 'going' for 'went'.

gmisk

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Worth pointing out that the 7 day average is being heavily skewed by the 174 cases on one day in the last week. It will likely drop quite dramatically over the next 2 days as long as we report less than 80 on those days. 5 day average sits at 58.

So your now admitting our 7 day average isn't dropping?
You can't just take cases out of it to suit your agenda though come on

ACitizenErased

gmisk wrote: »

So your now admitting our 7 day average isn't dropping?
You can't just take cases out of it to suit your agenda though come on

It's a statistical anomaly known as an outlier. You learn that when you study statistics.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Outlier

froog

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Worth pointing out that the 7 day average is being heavily skewed by the 174 cases on one day in the last week. It will likely drop quite dramatically over the next 2 days as long as we report less than 80 on those days. 5 day average sits at 58.

you should get a job in the trump administration.

ACitizenErased

froog wrote: »

you should get a job in the trump administration.

By pointing out a statistical observation? Do you know anything about outliers?

s1ippy

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Interesting to listen to the UK professor feeding into the WHO this evening in the covid special advisory committee.
Thinks we're making a mistake by not opening the pubs they've had 10 clusters out of 46,000 pubs which are a good place to study how the virus behaves and there is 0 evidence mask wearing works from what little experience they have in the UK it has the opposite effect and causes cases to rise. There's a real world study happening in Denmark at the moment with results to be published soon as to their effectiveness.
He pretty much said our knee jerk reactions have to stop there doing more harm than good. Our policys aren't based on all the evidence were cherry picking studies to support government policy which is plain wrong.

I'm sorry now like but you're going to have to give a name for this utter lunatic if he exists at all.

gmisk

ACitizenErased wrote: »

It's a statistical anomaly known as an outlier. You learn that when you study statistics.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Outlier

I have a masters in computer science, and worked in analytics for about 4 years....so yes I know what an outlier is..no need to be so condescending....you don't have to totally discount it, they are still confirmed cases and not an outlier given the entire data set.

Van.Bosch

ACitizenErased wrote: »

By pointing out a statistical observation? Do you know anything about outliers?

A 7 day average should strip out outliers to a certain extent though

froog

ACitizenErased wrote: »

By pointing out a statistical observation? Do you know anything about outliers?

what does your vast statistical knowlege tell you when looking at this? is that line trending up or down?

and yes i studied stats in college.

ACitizenErased

Van.Bosch wrote: »

A 7 day average should strip out outliers to a certain extent though

In most derivations of data then the outlier is removed and a median is used over an average, which I'm assuming Prof. Nolan's team is using.

ACitizenErased

froog wrote: »

what does your vast statistical knowlege tell you when looking at this? is that line trending up or down?

Because there's an outlier in the data...... I explained this above.
An example:
Naive interpretation of statistics derived from data sets that include outliers may be misleading. For example, if one is calculating the average temperature of 10 objects in a room, and nine of them are between 20 and 25 degrees Celsius, but an oven is at 175 °C, the median of the data will be between 20 and 25 °C but the mean temperature will be between 35.5 and 40 °C. In this case, the median better reflects the temperature of a randomly sampled object (but not the temperature in the room) than the mean;

Blondini

gmisk wrote: »

I have a masters in computer science, and worked in analytics for about 4 years....so yes I know what an outlier is..no need to be so condescending....you don't have to totally discount it, they are still confirmed cases and not an outlier given the data set.

It's also good mathematical practice to only automatically disregard an outlier if that particular data point was the result of a measurement error. So I am with you... include it!

BringBackMick

Is there any evidence or scientific discussion with regards to anectodal evidence that the 'second wave' of Covid19 in Europe is not resulting in a big uptick in hospitalisation ?