Covid 19 Part XXI-27,908 in ROI (1,777 deaths) 6,647 in NI (559 deaths)(22/08)Read OP

mandrake04

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

Ah hold on. They are not his statistics for a start. I do value the daily update of these stats though. However, you cannot skew the stats by removing the counties driving the national figures. Next week it could be different counties. Do we exclude them too? The 174 cases will drop off, yes, and then the 7 day average will drop significantly if we hold to current numbers. But this virus will see jumps from time to time and we can't exclude them all.

I've studied statistics at professional level so can appreciate the arguments but don't accept the exclusion of those that don't fit the narrative.

Also today’s numbers were only relevant about 10 days ago, what happens today we won’t know for another 10 days. although you can predict trends you cannot predict when a clusterfuck is going to materialise.

setanta1984

The Unbearables wrote: »

Open it all up spin merchants on overtime I see.

What exactly is it that you want?

It's pretty clear that there is a set of people who won't be happy unless we are in permanent lockdown like March-May.

It's mind boggling that people expect that unless it just disappears magically, society should be just shut off until global eradication.

Goldengirl

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Analysis of cases as of midnight Tuesday 11th August - 26,938 cases (+40)

Healthcare Workers +2
Clusters +74
Cases associated with clusters +151

Age Range Affected
0-4 +1
5-14 +5
15-24 +8
25-34 +8
35-44 +7
45-54 +8
55-64 No Change
65-74 +2
75-84 No Change
85+ No Change

Cases by County
Clare +1
Donegal +1
Dublin +11
Kildare +11
Kilkenny +2
Limerick +2
Meath +1
Offaly +7
Roscommon +1
Wexford +1
Wicklow +1

Tipp still ok

s1ippy

Don't worry, the colours are coming in instead of phases.

Jim_Hodge

Goldengirl wrote: »

Tipp still ok

It's not a competition.

Santy2015

froog wrote: »

i actually took the time to graph the 7 day moving average and helpfully analysed it to show people it is trending up, whilst pointing out the absurdity of picking a tiny section of that trend to show it is trending down.

what have you done?

I’m not a statistician. But I assume the majority of the doomsday fear mongering cohort are in well paid cushy jobs that they can also work from home? Lockdown was probably a god send to you lot. Ye don’t engage in debate and hit anyone with a positive viewpoint with stupid gifs and memes. Why can’t ACE or Stephen take the positives out of the data that’s in front of them? I can see it. I listen to Dr Glynn and Professor Nolan. They never come across the way ye all do. They tell it how it is and that’s where 99% of all info comes from is from them and the Covid hub.
There has been outliers the last couple of weeks. We got unlucky and a bit complacent with the meat factories, direct provision clusters. But if they didn’t happen we’d be more then likely be in phase 4, I’d be in my local pub having a few pints watching the match tonight enjoying my time off work. I can tell you this much the industry I work in has been hell for leather since the start of March. I worked my bollocks these past 5 or so months and then for the likes of you wanting all this to kick off ( I actually think you do) again will make the next few months unbearable at work. Not many on here unless your a HCW have to wear a face mask or covering for more then 8 hours a day. I can’t work from home neither can my wife as she’s an essential worker on the frontline as well!
I’m going to be positive every f**king day, until this is over!!
ACE and Stephen keep publishing the facts and data and f**k the rest!

Goldengirl

ACitizenErased wrote: »

You realise our 7 day average is dropping, yes?

ACE , now compare that 7 day average to a month ago .

This is not positivity anymore , it is head in the sand stuff.

Yes no need to panic and scream lockfown the country yet , but worrying trends , and that is not from a doom and gloom perspective .
Not translating into real sickies being admitted to hospital....yet !

Renjit

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

It's time I asked so wtf is an outlier/outliers

Those rare observations which skew the data. For example, spiderman is an outlier among normal humans

Or a more realistic example, Yao Ming is an outlier when compared to normal human height. If he is in a team then the average height will be higher.

Goldengirl

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

It's not a competition.

No , just an observation .

deisedevil

Thierry12 wrote: »

Wouldn't read much into it

The tests we use are high specificity,the downside of that high specificity is that we miss many positives

Also depends on the day of infection.

The likelihood of getting a false negative test result is way higher on the 1st day of infection, than on the 7th day

False positive results ) are thought to be much less of an issue with pcr tests compared to false negative results.

It's a bit like law, we can only convict when 100% sure, 90% isn't enough to convict

The test itself is super sensitive.They have to be taken correctly, and even if they are taken correctly the virus has to be in the spot where the sample is taken.

All this 99% accurate is in perfect conditions, performed by a professional.

In the nursing homes for example the nurses that work there are doing the tests, they were shown for 5 mins how to perform the test, they are so inconsistent from nurse to nurse, they might as well not bother testing.

I've been tested 4 times now and each time was different, it's a hard test to give

Your story about the nurses not being able to swab properly in nursing homes is pure bogus anyways. Nurses were swabbing in nursing homes long before there was covid. Same swabbing procedure as flu swabs. Its fair tough on nurses and healthcare workers in nursing homes being labelled as incompetent all the time. I know many, many nurses that moved from private to public nursing homes and all said private nursing homes were run far better and the staff for the most part were far better trained and knowledgable.

Its a shame how nursing home workers are being so badly portrayed. They had it much tougher than most public frontline workers and their jobs continue to be much more difficult than they have been in the past. Your comments are insulting, ignorant and very much ill informed. It's a shame most of the public haven't realised that the many of our healthcare workers in nursing homes are deserving if a lot of the praise being thrown about for frontline heros

DebDynamite

So what is ACE is getting his stats elsewhere? I appreciate the work he does by posting all stats and articles here in one place for me to read.

niallo27

Goldengirl wrote: »

Tipp still ok

Hundreds of years of inbreeding as finally paid off.

Santy2015

DebDynamite wrote: »

So what is ACE is getting his stats elsewhere? I appreciate the work he does by posting all stats and articles here in one place for me to read.

Gets them from here and the press release uploads daily https://covid19ireland-geohive.hub.arcgis.com/

polesheep

lee_baby_simms wrote: »

In the exact same way as every other country in the world? Why are the curves all so similar regardless of measures?

At the end of the day, nothing whatsoever about this virus matters other than the numbers in hospital. And they, as you have said, are insignificant.

road_high

The Unbearables wrote: »

It's pure selfishness.

Pure selfishness is moaning about a virus that you think you’re so special that you’re going to die from...and expect everyone else to rearrange their lives to accommodate your hysteria. The solution is simple- stay home if you think that

Goldengirl

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Sorry, I forgot that 40 cases for almost 3.6 million people is unsustainable

I remember a conversation on here about a month ago when it was discussed that if we went up to 30 cases a day with community transmission it would be time to be worried .
So now what number would you find worrying?

podgeandrodge

Martina1991 wrote: »

In the past you have said:





So why now do you believe seroprevalence studies.

That is not how I interpreted his posts at all, I think he said they were understating the reality.

Goldengirl

niallo27 wrote: »

Hundreds of years of inbreeding as finally paid off.

Let's examine that , could be a potential for antibody transfusion there ...

spookwoman

Santy2015 wrote: »

I’m not a statistician. But I assume the majority of the doomsday fear mongering cohort are in well paid cushy jobs that they can also work from home? Lockdown was probably a god send to you lot. Ye don’t engage in debate and hit anyone with a positive viewpoint with stupid gifs and memes. Why can’t ACE or Stephen take the positives out of the data that’s in front of them? I can see it. I listen to Dr Glynn and Professor Nolan. They never come across the way ye all do. They tell it how it is and that’s where 99% of all info comes from is from them and the Covid hub.
There has been outliers the last couple of weeks. We got unlucky and a bit complacent with the meat factories, direct provision clusters. But if they didn’t happen we’d be more then likely be in phase 4, I’d be in my local pub having a few pints watching the match tonight enjoying my time off work. I can tell you this much the industry I work in has been hell for leather since the start of March. I worked my bollocks these past 5 or so months and then for the likes of you wanting all this to kick off ( I actually think you do) again will make the next few months unbearable at work. Not many on here unless your a HCW have to wear a face mask or covering for more then 8 hours a day. I can’t work from home neither can my wife as she’s an essential worker on the frontline as well!
I’m going to be positive every f**king day, until this is over!!
ACE and Stephen keep publishing the facts and data and f**k the rest!

Why do assume the doomday people all work from home with lots of money :rolleyes:

Why do the "positive vibe" lot have to call anyone who post what you call "negative" facts doom sayers or doom mongers, and Why can't they post "negative" facts as well.

Just because they copy and paste data from the hub and from other people doesn't make them any more special.

Where has it been said in here that we want it all to kick off again? It hasn't been said and no one wants the numbers to go up but guess what they have and it's not the Fear mongers or Doom and gloom people that are the cause.
If you don't want look at the facts and that includes the bad then don't look at the news or boards or other places that put up the numbers.

DebDynamite

deisedevil wrote: »

Your story about the nurses not being able to swab properly in nursing homes is pure bogus anyways. Nurses were swabbing in nursing homes long before there was covid. Same swabbing procedure as flu swabs. Its fair tough on nurses and healthcare workers in nursing homes being labelled as incompetent all the time. I know many, many nurses that moved from private to public nursing homes and all said private nursing homes were run far better and the staff for the most part were far better trained and knowledgable.

Its a shame how nursing home workers are being so badly portrayed. They had it much tougher than most public frontline workers and their jobs continue to be much more difficult than they have been in the past. Your comments are insulting, ignorant and very much ill informed. It's a shame most of the public haven't realised that the many of our healthcare workers in nursing homes are deserving if a lot of the praise being thrown about for frontline heros

Well said. Even things like the signs with “Thank you HSE” and all the praise being heaped upon them irked me a bit.

Healthcare workers in private nursing homes, many of whom are on minimum wage, had to cope with awful things during this pandemic, and they weren’t rewarded with free coffees in shops, or free haircuts. I’ve said it before on here they should be held up as heros much more than a hospital consultant sitting in their office on €200k

polesheep

froog wrote: »

i actually took the time to graph the 7 day moving average and helpfully analysed it to show people it is trending up, whilst pointing out the absurdity of picking a tiny section of that trend to show it is trending down.

what have you done?

But in a sense you also picked a tiny section of a graph that started back in March. How would your section look if you showed the entire graph?

Goldengirl

spookwoman wrote: »

People are surprised in the increase in numbers? oh please where does it show people are surprised in the numbers no where but anyone who says 92 is not good are doom mongers.
Just because a some health official says oh the numbers will increase, I keep seeing the same meme in my head .

In fairness to Dr Glynn he is being taken out of context by the other poster .
He DID say that cases would increase . However he never said it was nothing to worry about !
Said they were watching it closely and mentioned words like ' concerning ' and 'worrying trends ' , in my recollection .

Jim_Hodge

At least the R0 has dropped from 1.8 to 1.6.

Santy2015

spookwoman wrote: »

Why do assume the doomday people all work from home with lots of money :rolleyes:

Why do the "positive vibe" lot have to call anyone who post what you call "negative" facts doom sayers or doom mongers, and Why can't they post "negative" facts as well.

Just because they copy and paste data from the hub and from other people doesn't make them any more special.

Where has it been said in here that we want it all to kick off again? It hasn't been said and no one wants the numbers to go up but guess what they have and it's not the Fear mongers or Doom and gloom people that are the cause.
If you don't want look at the facts and that includes the bad then don't look at the news or boards or other places that put up the numbers.

That’s because ye don’t seem to understand where these cases are coming from? Community transmission is a small proportion now. Hospitalisations are extremely stable. It does look Like a cohort of people here would love another lockdown. Yeah and where do the rest get figures? Same as everyone else.
Likes of myself will never win these debates but I’ll keep posting!

caveat emptor

I would like to add the following.
It’s a terrible time if you are a travel writer/blogger.
No amount of wishing if away will work.
Godspeed.

Goldengirl

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Watch this and let us know what you think...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H0CQ4nd7gD4

Sorry drunkmomkey , on reading this thought of a news interview a couple of weeks ago when it was announced the pubs were not opening .
Head of Vinters here , on arguing the point that Melbourne , Australia, had not shut down the pubs because it was not believed they contributed to clusters .
Cue next news story , whole state of Victoria closing down and going into lockdown , curfews , only brief daily exercise or essential shopping.
It would have been funnier if it wasn't so serious .

marno21

Intesting table from Gavan Reilly:

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1293967199959494656

Shows the clear logic behind the Laois/Kildare/Offaly lockdown.

Goldengirl

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

Take Care Come Back ACE, your data appreciated

Absolutely, provides balance as do stephenjmcd.

drunkmonkey

marno21 wrote: »

Intesting table from Gavan Reilly:


Shows the clear logic behind the Laois/Kildare/Offaly lockdown.

Looks like they left out a county that's been naughty from the start.

podgeandrodge

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Watch this and let us know what you think...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H0CQ4nd7gD4

That's very interesting. Esp bit about pubs. Ironic that Govt is still asking people not to have house parties but kicking people out of pubs at 11pm when they haven't been proven to be an issue.

podgeandrodge

seamus wrote: »

It's an old wives' tale that air conditioning causes diseases to circulate around.

Most commercial/industrial HVAC filters out particulate, making the air cleaner than what you're breathing out.

The main issue comes from the fact that conditioned air is very dry, which can make your airways more susceptible to infection.

Recirculated air in a cinema though generally doesn't recirculate any pathogens in the air, especially if it's a decent modern cinema.

As said above, you're probably safer in a cinema than a restaurant.

Not convinced that it's an old wives tale, unless the European CDC are old wives


ECDC in June:

"Air flow generated by air-conditioning units may facilitate the spread of droplets excreted by infected people longer distances within indoor spaces."

podgeandrodge

Psychiatric Patrick wrote: »

I actually had not considered that there no rush in going in the first couple of weeks.

With the exception of two, all responses have been helpful. I'm still 50/50 about it but I feel better having asked and knowing that I'm not over reacting by thinking about it.

You mentioned originally that your concern was your elderly mother and your sisters kids. Are you living with your mother? Or with your sisters kids? You should make a decision based on your perception of the risk and how good you've heard the movie is!

spookwoman

Santy2015 wrote: »

That’s because ye don’t seem to understand where these cases are coming from? Community transmission is a small proportion now.

And you don't know where they are coming from either and what the real number is. We already know that there are people presenting to GP's with symptoms who are refusing to get tested.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/coronavirus-worrying-trend-of-symptomatic-people-refusing-covid-19-tests-1.4304542
We also have people who won't even go to the GP or ask for a test when they have the symptoms and only will do so when they need treatment.

Santy2015 wrote: »

Hospitalisations are extremely stable.

It is great that hospitals are stable and i hope they stay that way.

Santy2015 wrote: »

It does look Like a cohort of people here would love another lockdown. Yeah and where do the rest get figures? Same as everyone else.
Likes of myself will never win these debates but I’ll keep posting!

Show me posts that shows people would love another lockdown, go on put them up.
I know most of those that post stats get their data direct from Gov.ie or link directly to the tweet and if not they say who the data came from if off twitter.
Many even create their own spreadsheets for averages.

Santy2015

spookwoman wrote: »

And you don't know where they are coming from either and what the real number is. We already know that there are people presenting to GP's with symptoms who are refusing to get tested.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/coronavirus-worrying-trend-of-symptomatic-people-refusing-covid-19-tests-1.4304542
We also have people who won't even go to the GP or ask for a test when they have the symptoms and only will do so when they need treatment.



It is great that hospitals are stable and i hope they stay that way.


Show me posts that shows people would love another lockdown, go on put them up.
I know most of those that post stats get their data direct from Gov.ie or link directly to the tweet and if not they say who the data came from if off twitter.
Many even create their own spreadsheets for averages.

And do you know why some people won’t go for the test? Because they’re worried about their livelihoods. Obviously some are scrots.
I’m not going back through hundreds of posts to see who has or has not said they wanted a lockdown but they are there.

spookwoman

Santy2015 wrote: »

And do you know why some people won’t go for the test? Because they’re worried about their livelihoods. Obviously some are scrots.
I’m not going back through hundreds of posts to see who has or has not said they wanted a lockdown but they are there.

Anyone who refuses to go for a test is a scrot and may well be endangering other lives.
If one of the "doom mongers" posted something that did not fit someone's narrative proof would be demand so only right you should also have to prove people want a lockdown or else it's just the usual blame everyone else.

drunkmonkey

Goldengirl wrote: »

Sorry drunkmomkey , on reading this thought of a news interview a couple of weeks ago when it was announced the pubs were not opening .
Head of Vinters here , on arguing the point that Melbourne , Australia, had not shut down the pubs because it was not believed they contributed to clusters .
Cue next news story , whole state of Victoria closing down and going into lockdown , curfews , only brief daily exercise or essential shopping.
It would have been funnier if it wasn't so serious .

Not sure what your trying to say, are the pubs the major vectors in those lockdowns or maybe it's a knee jerk reaction to just shut everything down, it's not any kind of strategy to just keep shutting everything down.
The term using a sledgehammer to crack a nut springs to mind.

ACitizenErased

spookwoman wrote: »

Anyone who refuses to go for a test is a scrot and may well be endangering other lives.
If one of the "doom mongers" posted something that did not fit someone's narrative proof would be demand so only right you should also have to prove people want a lockdown or else it's just the usual blame everyone else.

Someone on this thread literally posted 'we need to go back a step or two back now' when the numbers came out, before even reading where they came from. If that isn't dying for a step back, I don't know what is. I know you'll come back with some response somehow turning this on me though, that's what ya do usually.

Tomrota

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Take Kildare and Dublin out of the mix and you've got ~40 cases a day for a population of 5 million, entirely sustainable.

Take out Kildare and Dublin and you’ve about 3 to 3.5 million left in the country. And take into consideration Dublin and Kildare are probably the most densely populated counties too.

Ficheall

There's a difference between people wanting us to need a lockdown and people wanting a lockdown if it's needed.

There are definitely some of the latter on the thread, but fortunately we're nowhere near the stage of needing an overall lockdown.

Some people suggest there are posters who want us to need a lockdown, but I haven't seen any evidence of this.

What Username Guidelines

Santy2015 wrote: »

And do you know why some people won’t go for the test? Because they’re worried about their livelihoods. Obviously some are scrots.
I’m not going back through hundreds of posts to see who has or has not said they wanted a lockdown but they are there.

Because no one has ever wanted a lockdown to be reimplemented or move back a phase. No one. It’s an easy out when chatting with a “doom monger”. Just like you have an easy out with “sugar coaters” by saying “oh you just wanna go and live your life and you hate the elderly.”

It’s ridiculous that people need to have sides in this debate that are so concrete. You say something positive - sugar coater. Negative - doom monger.

The gas thing is, everyone from both “sides” want the same thing, to get back to some semblance of normality, safely. They just deal with it differently.

ACE says if you take out the day with high numbers we’re ok and he gets hopped on. Plenty of people discount a low day and say stuff like “yeah but it’ll be much higher tomorrow”. They get hopped on.

There a few with very balanced posts on here, no agenda or side and just wanna discuss what’s going on. It’s a shame it can’t be a little less hostile tbh.

Jim_Hodge

Santy2015 wrote: »

That’s because ye don’t seem to understand where these cases are coming from? Community transmission is a small proportion now. Hospitalisations are extremely stable. It does look Like a cohort of people here would love another lockdown. Yeah and where do the rest get figures? Same as everyone else.
Likes of myself will never win these debates but I’ll keep posting!

Sorry but where has a group pf people here said they want another lockdown? People may not be seeing too many positives, or be fearful about how this could trend but I haven't seen them enjoying the fact nor calling for a return to the restrictions of March or April. An odd spoof/satirical/trolling post has appeared but where is your cohort?

ACitizenErased

I think we need to get the UN involved and sign a peace agreement, an iconic moment in boards history

What Username Guidelines

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I think we need to get the UN involved and sign a peace agreement, an iconic moment in boards history

It’d be like Martin McGuinness shaking hands with the queen.

ACitizenErased

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

It’d be like Martin McGuinness shaking hands with the queen.

i dibs being martin

podgeandrodge

One thing that we can all agree on is that since masks became mandatory, cases have gone up. The evidence is clear. Just wait, it won't be long before supermarkets have a load of cases after largely getting away with it when masks weren't worn

And, as a result of pubs being forced to shut at 11pm, there will be a 30% increase in house parties with associated cases.

What Username Guidelines

ACitizenErased wrote: »

i dibs being martin

Fair. Meet Queen Kermit in Westminster at dawn.

Carfacemandog

I'm just after seeing Micheal Martin meeting with Boris Johnson, from a high risk country, with no mask and not keeping social distancing. What was he thinking? Yes Boris had it and so probably is fine with antibodies, but the messaging there is absolutely appalling.

spookwoman

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Someone on this thread literally posted 'we need to go back a step or two back now' when the numbers came out, before even reading where they came from. If that isn't dying for a step back, I don't know what is.

No link to the post and And we need a step back or 2 means a lock down :rolleyes:

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I know you'll come back with some response somehow turning this on me though, that's what ya do usually.

Seriously ...

theballz

What is our R number after today’s figures?

ACitizenErased

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

Fair. Meet Queen Kermit in Westminster at dawn.

You're pushing it now