Covid 19 Part XXI-27,908 in ROI (1,777 deaths) 6,647 in NI (559 deaths)(22/08)Read OP

DevilsHaircut

igCorcaigh wrote: »

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1293746229059477504?s=19

It must be rare though, so will not impact on efforts to achieve herd immunity through vaccination.

Concerning as regards reinfection, but can't be conclusively proven without genome sequencing of the virus.

fritzelly

This thread has become a b*tching match the past few days

fritzelly

fritzelly wrote: »

This thread has become a b*tching match the past few days

Always been an element of that in all the previous threads, and still will be until they end.

fritzelly

DubInMeath wrote: »

Always been an element of that in all the previous threads, and still will be until they en

Past few days is another level - not enjoyable to read

drunkmonkey

Goldengirl wrote: »

True, but how do you know if someone is ' unsick' or an asymptomatic spreader , without regular testing ?

We don't test for all other things that make people sick why single out Covid.
Would it make more sense to test for undiagnosed underlying health conditions, a national diabetes, heart disease program for example.

DevilsHaircut

ACitizenErased wrote: »

That just means the virus got in but caused no symptoms, meaning disease was avoided, which is a good sign.
New studies suggest that immunity is sustained.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41577-020-00423-9

If true (i.e. a reinfection), it is 'disease', which could spread to others.

It's impossible for any studies to suggest immunity is sustained for very long as the virus has been in humans for less than a year.

However, conclusive proof of reinfection would come only from genome sequencing, i.e. the original and new genetics of the virus samples are different.

Gael23

Micky 32 wrote: »

If a vaccine is approved ( looking more likely there will be than not) and provided you take it you’ll be safe enough to do what you want including travelling again.

Yes I intend to take a vaccine as soon as I can get one safely

Always_Running

The numbers our medical experts such as Dr Glynn, Prof Nolan focus on is the 14 day average which is 65 cases per day currently and the 5 day average which is 58 cases per day.

Community transmission numbers which was 99 confirmed cases out of 910 total from the last 2 weeks. Hospital confirmed figures are key also, currently 13 in hospital and 6 in ICU

Finally a big focus on having the spread from troublesome clusters like the Kildare ones to be contained. It will be another week or two before that is known.

drunkmonkey

drunkmonkey wrote: »

We don't test for all other things that make people sick why single out Covid.
Would it make more sense to test for undiagnosed underlying health conditions, a national diabetes, heart disease program for example.

You don't pass diabetes or heart disease onto random people in the street, work etc

https://www.diabetes.ie/free-diabetes-tests-screenings-ireland/

drunkmonkey

Micky 32 wrote: »

If a vaccine is approved ( looking more likely there will be than not) and provided you take it you’ll be safe enough to do what you want including travelling again.

Don't you need 60/70% of the world to take it as well though, could take a while.

Goldengirl

KrustyUCC wrote: »

One step back is Phase two

Two steps back is Phase One

That's certainly lockdown

To be fair he/ she said step, as in close hairdressers or gyms , for example , not Phases .
That's what I took it to be anyhow . Maybe it could have been phrased clearer so it wouldn't still be an issue for some , pages later !
But you read whatever suits you into the comment , and pillory the poster . Like others on the other side have been pilloried for a slip of the keyboard .
That is what is going on here . Point scoring .

Let's get back to discussing the issue instead of semantics .

MOR316

These threads would make a fascinating Sociology case study

On one hand, we have people like ACE and another few posters (Stephen is one of them? Can't recall their user name) posting here, giving great information and dumbing down various numbers and aspects so that idiots like me can understand things better. Quite helpful, providing us with their time and figures that some of us, myself included, are either too lazy to go and get or just not arsed in general. Very thankful to those posters and it's much appreciated

Then, we have people who are worried and scared.
Some of these, I totally understand and totally get and it's not a criticism of them at all. Unknown times etc. Some are nervous when someone coughs because of a harmless nasal drip, others because of Hayfever sniffles. I get it, it's unknown, you don't wanna spread it if you get it and I totally relate and understand.

But, there's the other group of bat **** (ironic description not intended) mentalists who are equally as frightening as they are entertaining.
There are some posters constantly trying to contradict people like ACE and the data he provides and then get really aggressive in their posting when they can't sway him/her.
Then, there were posters in the previous thread demanding to know why he/she wasn't worried and were demanding to know when he/she will start worrying (That was hilarious )
And then, I saw someone posting about going into a restaurant and people were eating and drinking at tables without wearing a mask. They were horrified, livid by this and some agreed :rolleyes: :rolleyes:
I don't know about any of you but, I'd imagine it to be fairly impossible to eat or drink whilst wearing a mask

In conclusion, it's highly entertaining. Keep it up!
And, if there are any Sociology students about, Boards.ie have just written your thesis for you

Sconsey

Sconsey wrote: »

No Idea what you are on about or why you are quoting me.

All guarantees from the poster you quoted so not really surprised at them ignoring the studies mentioned.

ACitizenErased

drunkmonkey wrote: »

@ACitizenErased, what's your take on this from Ivor Cummins..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FU3OibcindQ

I don't really know what to think of this tbh. He's not wrong that we haven't seen any real increased deaths even with the increase in cases over the past few weeks, however I really don't know enough about PCR testing to comment on whether he's right or not. Guess we'll just have to wait and see.

Drumpot

Somebody asked earlier about cinemas.

I’m just out of a screening of Intersteller and it was a great experience. Very well monitored, people (only 4 in screen to be fair) kept good distance , wore masks in and out and I’m looking forward to going again.

Seen this movie several time’s but it’s just superb on the big screen. Loved it every bit as much as when I first saw it, prob one of the best movies I’ve seen in ages in the cinema. I highly recommend it, especially to those who haven’t seen it..

Felt nice to do something pre COVId “normal” And didn’t have a care at any stage. Well done cinema....

Micky 32

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Don't you need 60/70% of the world to take it as well though, could take a while.

That would be to help eradicate the virus or keep cases to a minimum. But as an individual and you take it at least it will protect you from getting it.

MOR316

Drumpot wrote: »

Somebody asked earlier about cinemas.

I’m just out of a screening of Intersteller and it was a great experience. Very well monitored, people (only 4 in screen to be fair) kept good distance , wore masks in and out and I’m looking forward to going again.

Seen this movie several time’s but it’s just superb on the big screen. Loved it every bit as much as when I first saw it, prob one of the best movies I’ve seen in ages in the cinema. I highly recommend it, especially to those who haven’t seen it..

Felt nice to do something pre COVId “normal” And didn’t have a care at any stage. Well done cinema....

Yeah, having the cinema back is great isn't it? Can't get enough of it now myself

Sconsey

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I don't really know what to think of this tbh. He's not wrong that we haven't seen any real increased deaths even with the increase in cases over the past few weeks, however I really don't know enough about PCR testing to comment on whether he's right or not. Guess we'll just have to wait and see.

That 'Casedemic' argument doesnt seem to hold for all countries. If you take the top 10 countries from Worldometers it only really holds for Spain and maybe Chile. Possibly some of the other countries in the top 10 are still in the epidemic stage. But look at countries like USA and for an extreme example look at Iran.

It is still an interesting take on the whole thing.

drunkmonkey

Gael23 wrote: »

Yes I intend to take a vaccine as soon as I can get one safely

Be careful what you take, the state rushed through a swine flu vaccine 10yrs ago and it's only now in the High Courts, https://www.irishtimes.com/news/crime-and-law/courts/high-court/second-legal-action-over-swine-flu-vaccine-listed-for-november-1.4305550
Could make the Governments case for a rushed mandatory vaccine very difficulty depending on the outcome.

ACitizenErased

Sconsey wrote: »

That 'Casedemic' argument doesnt seem to hold for all countries. If you take the top 10 countries from Worldometers it only really holds for Spain and maybe Chile. Possibly some of the other countries in the top 10 are still in the epidemic stage. But look at countries like USA and for an extreme example look at Iran.

It is still an interesting take on the whole thing.

It is a really interesting take yeah. It would be great to see the asymptomatic rate of our cases right now, and we also need to see whether deaths increase here in the next few weeks.

drunkmonkey

Micky 32 wrote: »

That would be to help eradicate the virus or keep cases to a minimum. But as an individual and you take it at least it will protect you from getting it.

It won't, you can still get it and it may be a milder case. It definitely doesn't provide immunity.

Goldengirl

drunkmonkey wrote: »

We don't test for all other things that make people sick why single out Covid.
Would it make more sense to test for undiagnosed underlying health conditions, a national diabetes, heart disease program for example.

Setting up any national health screening would be an excellent idea but would take time and money . Some are screened for already eg . Colon cancer.
It also doesn't follow that those people diagnosed are the only people at risk from Covid .
Covid is the immediate risk, an infectious disease causing a pandemic aand it is relatively cheap and easy to test for , compared to diagnosing other illnesses.

SEPT 23 1989

Drumpot wrote: »

Somebody asked earlier about cinemas.

I’m just out of a screening of Intersteller and it was a great experience. Very well monitored, people (only 4 in screen to be fair) kept good distance , wore masks in and out and I’m looking forward to going again.

Seen this movie several time’s but it’s just superb on the big screen. Loved it every bit as much as when I first saw it, prob one of the best movies I’ve seen in ages in the cinema. I highly recommend it, especially to those who haven’t seen it..

Felt nice to do something pre COVId “normal” And didn’t have a care at any stage. Well done cinema....

i would risk getting a dose watching that masterpiece on the big screen

Micky 32

drunkmonkey wrote: »

It won't, you can still get it and it may be a milder case. It definitely doesn't provide immunity.

So what is the point of a vaccine then? I’ll take a milder case anyway if it brings back some normality.
The vaccines have been proven to work they are in phase iii to get approval to prove they are safe, did you do any research on them at all or did you pull your comment out of your arse?

drunkmonkey

ACitizenErased wrote: »

It is a really interesting take yeah. It would be great to see the asymptomatic rate of our cases right now, and we also need to see whether deaths increase here in the next few weeks.

Weren't the meat factory workers mostly asymptomatic. We should have stats on health care workers as well.

Non solum non ambulabit

MOR316 wrote: »

These threads would make a fascinating Sociology case study

On one hand, we have people like ACE and another few posters (Stephen is one of them? Can't recall their user name) posting here, giving great information and dumbing down various numbers and aspects so that idiots like me can understand things better. Quite helpful, providing us with their time and figures that some of us, myself included, are either too lazy to go and get or just not arsed in general. Very thankful to those posters and it's much appreciated

Then, we have people who are worried and scared.
Some of these, I totally understand and totally get and it's not a criticism of them at all. Unknown times etc. Some are nervous when someone coughs because of a harmless nasal drip, others because of Hayfever sniffles. I get it, it's unknown, you don't wanna spread it if you get it and I totally relate and understand.

But, there's the other group of bat **** (ironic description not intended) mentalists who are equally as frightening as they are entertaining.
There are some posters constantly trying to contradict people like ACE and the data he provides and then get really aggressive in their posting when they can't sway him/her.
Then, there were posters in the previous thread demanding to know why he/she wasn't worried and were demanding to know when he/she will start worrying (That was hilarious )
And then, I saw someone posting about going into a restaurant and people were eating and drinking at tables without wearing a mask. They were horrified, livid by this and some agreed :rolleyes: :rolleyes:
I don't know about any of you but, I'd imagine it to be fairly impossible to eat or drink whilst wearing a mask

In conclusion, it's highly entertaining. Keep it up!
And, if there are any Sociology students about, Boards.ie have just written your thesis for you

Great post. I was thinking very similar thoughts earlier. It is a great representation of how different people react to the exact same information. It's fascinating in many ways. I am unsure though if some people are being sencere.

drunkmonkey

Goldengirl wrote: »

Setting up any national health screening would be an excellent idea but would take time and money . Some are screened for already eg . Colon cancer.
It also doesn't follow that those people diagnosed are the only people at risk from Covid .
Covid is the immediate risk, an infectious disease causing a pandemic aand it is relatively cheap and easy to test for , compared to diagnosing other illnesses.

I recall reading that part of Americas problem is got to do with obesity, those would be pre or already have diabetes and heart problems many probably undiagnosed. Diabetes would leave you wide open to complications with Covid.

DevilsHaircut

So, is Casedemic the new Plandemic?

It doesn't really scan as a term, but triers will be triers... :rolleyes:

BTW what are people's thoughts on hydroxychloroquine and Bill Gates

gabeeg

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Weren't the meat factory workers mostly asymptomatic. We should have stats on health care workers as well.

They were asymptomatic at the time, but that was well within the typical incubation period.

So, no. Not really

drunkmonkey

Micky 32 wrote: »

So what is the point of a vaccine then? I’ll take a milder case anyway if it brings back some normality.
The vaccines have been proven to work they are in phase iii to get approval to prove they are safe, did you do any research on them at all or did you pull your comment out of your arse?

We don't have a vaccine yet so we don't know it's effectiveness, is it incorrect to compare it to the flu vaccine, here's some light reading for you https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/vaccineeffect.htm

DevilsHaircut

drunkmonkey wrote: »

I recall reading that part of Americas problem is got to do with obesity, those would be pre or already have diabetes and heart problems many probably undiagnosed. Diabetes would leave you wide open to complications with Covid.

None of that in Ireland, of course,

or the UK,

or Italy,

or Spain...

KrustyUCC

Goldengirl wrote: »

To be fair he/ she said step, as in close hairdressers or gyms , for example , not Phases .
That's what I took it to be anyhow . Maybe it could have been phrased clearer so it wouldn't still be an issue for some , pages later !
But you read whatever suits you into the comment , and pillory the poster . Like others on the other side have been pilloried for a slip of the keyboard .
That is what is going on here . Point scoring .

Let's get back to discussing the issue instead of semantics .

That poster has certainly not clarified

You read into it as closing hairdressers or gyms

Thats effectively Phase Two Plus

Here's a reminder of what that would entail

https://www.thejournal.ie/phase-two-restrictions-whats-allowed-today-5116215-Jun2020/

That poster has also not clarified on what basis we should be stepping back

Apparently it's the rise in cases

I fail to see why the entire country requires a step back or two when there is absolutely no need

Many counties are doing very well in terms of cases

Here's a good breakdown of cases

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1293967199959494656/photo/1

Goldengirl

drunkmonkey wrote: »

I recall reading that part of Americas problem is got to do with obesity, those would be pre or already have diabetes and heart problems many probably undiagnosed. Diabetes would leave you wide open to complications with Covid.

Yes. Don't have to be obese to have diabetes or vice versa but a lot of type 2 diabetics are obese.
Problem with diabetes is the inflammatory reaction appears to be exaggerated with Covid , and those that get very ill , are often those with what is called metabolic syndrome , diabetes, hypertension and high cholesterol, all major risk factors for mortality and morbidity.

drunkmonkey

gabeeg wrote: »

They were asymptomatic at the time, but that was well within the typical incubation period.

So, no. Not really

So we don't really know, is anyone tracking it to see what percentage go on to be symptomatic. A 28 day later call would be useful to see how positive test results got on.

Micky 32

drunkmonkey wrote: »

We don't have a vaccine yet so we don't know it's effectiveness, is it incorrect to compare it to the flu vaccine, here's some light reading for you https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/vaccineeffect.htm

Where have i said said we have a vaccine yet? It’s not approved yet. The Vaccines work, they have been proved to work that ship has sailed. They activate the immune response the way they had hoped. It’s in final testing for side affects hence phase iii.

I never mentioned anything about the flu vaccine so why are you posting a link to flu vaccines. This is a different virus altogether The flu have different strains that make it harder to eradicate with a vaccine.

The_Brood

This is exactly, exactly my biggest fear happening here as well: https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/europe/russia-us-coronavirus-vaccine/index.html

We cannot be sheep and play the political games of America and Europe. Ireland needs the vaccine, whether it comes from Russia or not. I'm completely in favor of shutting down the country in mass-scale protests if there is any delay to getting the Russian vaccine. The government refuses to help those of us that are really struggling, it owes us at least not to stand in the way of a vaccine.

Micky 32

The_Brood wrote: »

This is exactly, exactly my biggest fear happening here as well: https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/europe/russia-us-coronavirus-vaccine/index.html

We cannot be sheep and play the political games of America and Europe. Ireland needs the vaccine, whether it comes from Russia or not. I'm completely in favor of shutting down the country in mass-scale protests if there is any delay to getting the Russian vaccine. The government refuses to help those of us that are really struggling, it owes us at least not to stand in the way of a vaccine.

I see that Russia has now licensed their vaccine.

drunkmonkey

Micky 32 wrote: »

Where have i said said we have a vaccine yet? It’s not approved yet. The Vaccines work, they have been proved to work that ship has sailed. They activate the immune response the way they had hoped. It’s in final testing for side affects hence phase iii.

I never mentioned anything about the flu vaccine so why are you posting a link to flu vaccines. This is a different virus altogether that has different strains.

What would you compare this new vaccine to, how about we compare it to the previous SARS vaccine? Give me something you'll accept we can compare it with. I'm not buying it will provide immunity.

amandstu

Goldengirl wrote: »

Yes. Don't have to be obese to gave diabetes or vice versa but a lot of thpe 2 diabetics are obese.
Problem with diabetes is the inflammatory reaction appears to be exaggerated with Covid , and those that get very ill , are often those with what is called metabolic syndrome , diabetes, hypertension and high cholesterol, all major risk factors for mortality and morbidity.

I heard that hypertension was a factor if it was not being treated .

For most people that would not apply,I'd have thought.

Has the advice changed?

fritzelly

The_Brood wrote: »

This is exactly, exactly my biggest fear happening here as well: https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/europe/russia-us-coronavirus-vaccine/index.html

We cannot be sheep and play the political games of America and Europe. Ireland needs the vaccine, whether it comes from Russia or not. I'm completely in favor of shutting down the country in mass-scale protests if there is any delay to getting the Russian vaccine. The government refuses to help those of us that are really struggling, it owes us at least not to stand in the way of a vaccine.

Political football in play there (tho the report doesn't actually quote any US official confirming the offer and subsequent refusal) - apart from that the Russian vaccine has not been properly trialled so any country accepting it right now would be fools

Renjit

drunkmonkey wrote: »

We don't test for all other things that make people sick why single out Covid.
Would it make more sense to test for undiagnosed underlying health conditions, a national diabetes, heart disease program for example.

This post gave me diabetes and a heart attack

drunkmonkey

The_Brood wrote: »

This is exactly, exactly my biggest fear happening here as well: https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/europe/russia-us-coronavirus-vaccine/index.html

We cannot be sheep and play the political games of America and Europe. Ireland needs the vaccine, whether it comes from Russia or not. I'm completely in favor of shutting down the country in mass-scale protests if there is any delay to getting the Russian vaccine. The government refuses to help those of us that are really struggling, it owes us at least not to stand in the way of a vaccine.

You'll want it made mandatory I presume.

Micky 32

drunkmonkey wrote: »

I'm not buying it will provide immunity.

Nothing more to discuss then really, believe what you buy or want. Whether you like it or not restrictions caused by Covid 19 days are begining to be numbered.

Goldengirl

KrustyUCC wrote: »

That poster has certainly not clarified

You read into it as closing hairdressers or gyms

Thats effectively Phase Two Plus

Here's a reminder of what that would entail

https://www.thejournal.ie/phase-two-restrictions-whats-allowed-today-5116215-Jun2020/

That poster has also not clarified on what basis we should be stepping back

Apparently it's the rise in cases

I fail to see why the entire country requires a step back or two when there is absolutely no need

Many counties are doing very well in terms of cases

Here's a good breakdown of cases

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1293967199959494656/photo/1

I don't think we need to do a general step back ...yet .
Its sick people needing hospitalization , because that is when alarm bells start going off for me .
They seem to have the testing and tracing down well for clusters. And regional or local lockdowna are the way to go , in theory .
However its the randomers who won't report symptoms and still are out and about that will fxxx it up for everyone , because there is no knowing where they will pop up or who they will infect along the way .
And that is what we are seeing with small numbers of cases here and there .
That is uncontrolled spread and potentially more serious than the clusters.
That is why I understood that poster being freaked by cases in so many counties.
And I don't see why it is not obvious to anyone else on this thread who has been watching this unfold .

Renjit

DevilsHaircut wrote: »

So, is Casedemic the new Plandemic?

It doesn't really scan as a term, but triers will be triers... :rolleyes:

BTW what are people's thoughts on hydroxychloroquine and Bill Gates

Watch this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8kkBseVTUow

Goldengirl

DevilsHaircut wrote: »

None of that in Ireland, of course,

or the UK,

or Italy,

or Spain...

Yes all fat over here too 😉

Santy2015

Some night time reading that might scare some people into letting their kids outside!! Goodnight
https://twitter.com/care2much18/status/1294023739672322049?s=21

Deeper Blue

What's with people losing their **** over every one of ACE's posts?

He's a valuable contributor to the thread and gets nothing but grief.

To those throwing their toys out of the pram over a comment about an outlier I say this: get off the laptop and go for a pint.

Have a nice weekend everyone

Goldengirl

drunkmonkey wrote: »

So we don't really know, is anyone tracking it to see what percentage go on to be symptomatic. A 28 day later call would be useful to see how positive test results got on.

Should have those stats with healthcare workers as they have been swabbed regularly , but I bet nobody will be told those figures until long after the pandemic has gone .And the unions have given up asking for Covid to be included as an occupational disease!

darjeeling

drunkmonkey wrote: »

@ACitizenErased, what's your take on this from Ivor Cummins..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FU3OibcindQ

It is far too early to say that mortality will not again rise with the increasing number of infections being detected daily across Europe.

There has been an undeniable increase over the last 5 weeks in daily case numbers across Western Europe.
Testing capacity has not increased hugely over this time, and the percentage of positive tests has been increasing, topping 7% in Spain a few days ago.
This shows that the number of infections is increasing, and that we are not, as implied, just detecting more old cases due to a recent increase in testing.

The video shows histograms of case numbers peaking in March-April, then falling, and now rising again. It implies that 100 cases detected per day in March is the same as 100 cases today. But in March testing was barely available and most mild cases were excluded from testing under the criteria then in use. So while numbers are rising now, the true number of infections is still far lower than at the March-April peak.

The video says that we need not only to consider numbers of cases, but also deaths, ICU admissions and hospital admissions. I agree.
Looking at Spain, where the outbreak is biggest, covid-19 hospital admissions have increased from 100 per week in June to almost a thousand per week today.

There is still much uncertainty about levels of infection required for herd immunity, the proportion of vulnerable people who lost their lives in the first wave, and the frequency of long-term complications.
We will have to wait for more data to resolve these questions.

What I think cannot be doubted is that we don't have enough data on who is infected.
That is because our testing model is wrong.

We are relying on a hypersensitive clinically-appropriate PCR test that takes time to report and for which we only have lab capacity for a few thousand a day.
This is not an appropriate screening tool for outbreak monitoring or prevention.

We need cheap, self-administered rapid tests that can be taken regularly so that we can reliably detect when someone is infectious. We could have got them into use months ago, and we'd be in a much better place for reopening safely if we had.
See https://www.rapidtests.org/ for an overview.