Covid 19 Part XXI-27,908 in ROI (1,777 deaths) 6,647 in NI (559 deaths)(22/08)Read OP

1641

ACitizenErased wrote: »

My thoughts exactly. Be interesting to see an age breakdown as there is no doubt some older people working there. If the older people are asymptomatic then we’re seeing a real shift.

I wonder if some symptoms might be overlooked if very mild. "Person A" was sneezing but did not consider himself (?) symtomatic. But, yes, generally very concerning regarding asymtomatic spread.

Drumpot

Stheno wrote: »

So 3.4% who tested positive have symptoms and they were tested 2 weeks ago

Would imply massive asymptomatic spread in the wider population unless its a complete outlier

ACitizenErased wrote: »

My thoughts exactly. Be interesting to see an age breakdown as there is no doubt some older people working there. If the older people are asymptomatic then we’re seeing a real shift.

I know this is only a snippet of the overall numbers but how can they be struggling to get a reasonable asymptomatic number ? How do they vary so much from country to country depending on who is working it out?

I know without testing everybody daily you can’t know for sure, but I’ve been seeing suggestions that asymptomatic cases are as low as 5% to now as high as 97%. There are of course mitigating factors but can they explain such a difference in asymptomatic projections?

Is it mutation? Is it that we have simply underestimated the amount infected and thus over estimated how dangerous it is (in terms of mortality)? Maybe lower viral loads from mask wearing but infection spreading more? (People more lax in masks?)

What’s the thoughts?

Stheno

1641 wrote: »

I wonder if some symptoms might be overlooked if very mild. "Person A" was sneezing but did not consider himself (?) symtomatic. But, yes, generally very concerning regarding asymtomatic spread.

I would consider it a positive if less than 4% of people in the general population who test positive have symptoms tbh

Implies herd immunity is more achievable than previously thought no?

ACitizenErased

Drumpot wrote: »

I know this is only a snippet of the overall numbers but how can they be struggling to get a reasonable asymptomatic number ? How do they vary so much from country to country depending on who is working it out?

I know without testing everybody daily you can’t know for sure, but I’ve been seeing suggestions that asymptomatic cases are as low as 5% to now as high as 97%. There are of course mitigating factors but can they explain such a difference in asymptomatic projections?

Is it mutation? Is it that we have simply underestimated the amount infected and thus over estimated how dangerous it is (in terms of mortality)?

What’s the thoughts?

Unfortunately I think it is impossible for people in our position to make a comment on that. I wonder have they been keeping track of symptomatic percentanges since the pandemic started? I doubt it.
One thing's for sure - even with our increased cases for the last 3 weeks we have seen very little hospitalisations.

ACitizenErased

Oranage2 wrote: »

Positive if you're young and healthy.

Even scarier if you take care of or have a health condition or are above a certain age

Let's be honest, there has to be some people with underlying conditions or older who got infected in that factory.

Away With The Fairies

ACitizenErased wrote: »

“So far, only three of the 86 employees who tested positive have shown any symptoms at all.“

Christ.

Some people may see this as positive news but people may still go on to develop symptoms.

What I'm worried about is that the virus is showing up in so many ways. One symptom is lack of oxygen in the blood and not knowing about it. Are people even aware of this, and monitoring their oxygen levels. If people aren't measuring their oxygen, will something like this be put down as asymptomatic?

1641

Stheno wrote: »

I would consider it a positive if less than 4% of people in the general population who test positive have symptoms tbh

Implies herd immunity is more achievable than previously thought no?

Herd immunity would be great. But the recent ONS survey in England suggests that only about 6% of the population there has had it (to mid-July). That is a long way to go. And how do the more vulnerable fare in the meantime?


https://www.irishexaminer.com/world/arid-40031744.html

ACitizenErased

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

Some people may see this as positive news but people may still go on to develop symptoms.

What I'm worried about is that the virus is showing up in so many ways. One symptom is lack of oxygen in the blood and not knowing about it. Are people even aware of this, and monitoring their oxygen levels. If people aren't measuring their oxygen, will something like this be put down as asymptomatic?

It's been over two weeks, they would have had symptoms by now, to be fair.

ACitizenErased

1641 wrote: »

Herd immunity would be great. But the recent ONS survey in England suggests that only about 6% of the population there has had it (to mid-July). That is a long way to go. And how do the more vulnerable fare in the meantime?


https://www.irishexaminer.com/world/arid-40031744.html

That's only antibodies. You can't really just use antibody tests to judge immunity, there's so much more to it.

Oranage2

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Let's be honest, there has to be some people with underlying conditions or older who got infected in that factory.

That's true but it's such a small sample size in a very specific setting. We don't really know the age demographic or any variables of the factory's workforce.

Though it's definitely interesting but I'm not getting my hopes up just yet.

Thierry12

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Let's be honest, there has to be some people with underlying conditions or older who got infected in that factory.

Exactly :pac:

Do people think only Olympians work in meat factories

ACitizenErased

Masks being made compulsory on public transport in Denmark from August 22nd. Bit late, me thinks.

screamer

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Can that not be interpreted as a positive development?

This is not dangerous to those healthy enough to attend work, which is excellent news.

If we could categorically state that then it would be positive. But, like so much with covid we simply don’t know. We don’t know the age demographic affected in that factory, we don’t know their general state of health etc. The other huge unknown with covid is, why one person can catch it without even knowing and another can end up on a ventilator or even dead. It’s too much of an unknown to say this is positive at all to be very honest

GooglePlus

wadacrack wrote: »

I think obesity/diet is a huge factor with this virus tbh. Its not hitting athletes hard at all and many teams/leagues have had high infection rates. They obviously have players from many different ethnic backgrounds

You're right but plenty of fat people have had it mild too. Pot luck at times.

Thierry12

GooglePlus wrote: »

You're right but plenty of fat people have had it mild too. Pot luck at times.

They should honestly be studying that aspect way more, not bringing out mass vaccination

We still don't have a clue how this virus works and we have a cure in a vaccine.

If that's not ****ed up

Away With The Fairies

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Masks being made compulsory on public transport in Denmark from August 22nd. Bit late, me thinks.

I don't understand this, giving a date in the future to make masks mandatory? Will the virus hold off for a week?

polesheep

screamer wrote: »

If we could categorically state that then it would be positive. But, like so much with covid we simply don’t know. We don’t know the age demographic affected in that factory, we don’t know their general state of health etc. The other huge unknown with covid is, why one person can catch it without even knowing and another can end up on a ventilator or even dead. It’s too much of an unknown to say this is positive at all to be very honest

Seriously? You don't see the difference?

polesheep

Thierry12 wrote: »

They should honestly be studying that aspect way more, not bringing out mass vaccination

We still don't have a clue how this virus works and we have a cure in a vaccine.

If that's not ****ed up

There has been billions invested in finding a vaccine and there are billions to be made in rolling one out. There won't be a rush to discover if people are seeing Covid-19 off through their own immune systems.

MickeyLeari

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

I don't understand this, giving a date in the future to make masks mandatory? Will the virus hold off for a week?

Presumably they need to lay the law before their parliament, and indeed promote the new law and ensure everyone is clear on enforcement and control. Covid cannot and should not overrule democratic structures.

polesheep

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Let's be honest, there has to be some people with underlying conditions or older who got infected in that factory.

Or brought it home.

Thierry12

polesheep wrote: »

There has been billions invested in finding a vaccine and there are billions to be made in rolling one out. There won't be a rush to discover if people are seeing Covid-19 off through their own immune systems.

Bang on

On that note we have seen 0 confirmed reinfection cases worldwide as well

To me it looks like it's going the way of sars and we could have over a decade of immunity, pharma's won't be happy about that.

Herd immunity as well.

Boggles

1641 wrote: »

I dunno if it has been already linked but there is an interesting article in today's IT about the ooutbreak at O'Briens Foods in Timahoe. Well worth a read.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/coronavirus/inside-the-o-brien-fine-foods-factory-in-lockdown-kildare-1.4330267

Fúcking Hell. If Carlsberg did PR Puff pieces.

Sounds like a better place to work than Google.

1641

polesheep wrote: »

There has been billions invested in finding a vaccine and there are billions to be made in rolling one out. There won't be a rush to discover if people are seeing Covid-19 off through their own immune systems.

There has been development work on over 150 vaccines. We don't know if any of them will be successful but the vast majority of them will never make it through trials and get to market. For any that do there will be a tidy profit. For others the investment will be a write-off.

Loafing Oaf

screamer wrote: »

If we could categorically state that then it would be positive. But, like so much with covid we simply don’t know. We don’t know the age demographic affected in that factory, we don’t know their general state of health etc. The other huge unknown with covid is, why one person can catch it without even knowing and another can end up on a ventilator or even dead. It’s too much of an unknown to say this is positive at all to be very honest

What about this business of 'viral load'? As in, medical staff who contract covid often get a very bad dose because they get a 'heavy load'; could whatever way the infections were contracted at O'Briens be the opposite, like picking it up in the air mean they only get a very mild case?

FullOf..IT

Not sure if right thread but how long should we be waiting for contract tracing team to contact us? Little lads doctor rang us at 9am yesterday morning to confirm positive result?

ACitizenErased

FullOf..IT wrote: »

Not sure if right thread but how long should we be waiting for contract tracing team to contact us? Little lads doctor rang us at 9am yesterday morning to confirm positive result?

Sorry to hear that. If you’re sick of waiting you can ring HSE Live and they can get the contact tracing team to ring you as fast as possible.
What county are you in if ya don’t mind me asking?

Away With The Fairies

FullOf..IT wrote: »

Not sure if right thread but how long should we be waiting for contract tracing team to contact us? Little lads doctor rang us at 9am yesterday morning to confirm positive result?

Would you not help them out and start getting in touch with those you've been in contact with?

Edit: I also like ACitazenErased advice which I saw after posting my own.

FullOf..IT

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

Would you not help them out and start getting in touch with those you've been in contact with?

Already done that, working off 48hrs since symptoms developed. Have been in contact with doctor who has got us all tested in meantime. My oldest hasnt as hes with different doctor and isnt showing symptoms so she said wait till Contact Team engage us. Just wondering on lead times so can close the loop

FullOf..IT

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Sorry to hear that. If you’re sick of waiting you can ring HSE Live and they can get the contact tracing team to ring you as fast as possible.
What county are you in if ya don’t mind me asking?

Rang the number twice, first time told to wait another 12 hours, 2nd time to wait 24hrs as its the weekend?

In Dublin

CalamariFritti

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I wouldn’t say positive development, rather an interesting development.

I would not only say its a positive development. I would say its yet another indicator of the shortcomings of our approach to this.

It is still a possibility four/five months into this that the actual rate of which the population had been exposed to this virus is vastly underestimated.

Potentially skewing the estimated percentages of hospitalisation and ICU and ultimately IFR massively.

Its the single most important piece of information there is. And there has simply not been a serious enough attempt of getting to that information.

We're still fumbling around in the dark. Potentially ignoring the most important piece of the problem.

Which leads me to the part of this struggle against COVID that really annoys me the most.

For all the brightest heads within our society and all the resources we throw at this it's still very amateurish in a number of key aspects. Let it be the evidence on spread and infection and prevention, let it be the single most important piece of this problem. There are not serious enough attempts to get all the core information on the problem together. Amateurish. Unscientific.

Which is not me claiming that this virus has gone through our population already and we're all just panicking over nothing. But its me claiming the possibility of that is still there and we just don't fkn know. 5 months into this. Its unbelievable really.

sonic85

I just want to ask a question - hopefully some of the better informed people here can answer it because I dont know anything about how this virus is being fought.

If you get tested for the virus and it comes back positive but you are asymptomatic is it a requirement that everyone in your place of work gets tested too or is the fact that you are asymptomatic treated as being less serious and maybe just the people you live with get tested?

ACitizenErased

sonic85 wrote: »

I just want to ask a question - hopefully some of the better informed people here can answer it because I dont know anything about how this virus is being fought.

If you get tested for the virus and it comes back positive but you are asymptomatic is it a requirement that everyone in your place of work gets tested too or is the fact that you are asymptomatic treated as being less serious and maybe just the people you live with get tested?

It’s treated just like any other positive - all close contacts tested

Ineedaname

ACitizenErased wrote: »

This seems to becoming more and more clear, immunity is sustained.

I agree. Important point though. T-cell immunity doesn't generally prevent infection so we don't know how much protection if offers. Only that it's more than zero.

That said though even enough to reduce an infection from severe to mild would make a huge difference.

Renjit

Thierry12 wrote: »

Exactly :pac:

Do people think only Olympians work in meat factories

It takes one to know one :pac:

sonic85

ACitizenErased wrote: »

It’s treated just like any other positive - all close contacts tested

That's interesting because I know of a case where this doesn't seem to be happening. Bit of a joke really

Renjit

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Masks being made compulsory on public transport in Denmark from August 22nd. Bit late, me thinks.

All hail Denmark :pac:

DevilsHaircut

O'Brien Fine Foods/Brady's Ham didn't follow the guidelines that applied at the time.

The workers weren't wearing masks.

John O'Brien said 'HSE advice was to wear either visors or masks'.

But it's the HSA and the HPSC who give sector guidance, and the HPSC said on 30 June:

'Ensure that all staff (including DAFM staff and contractors) wear both a mask and a visor (or a mask and goggles where goggles are available) in scenarios where there is a particular problem with physical distancing...If both cannot be worn, surgical masks are recommended above other types of masks on their own, which are preferable to visors on their own.'



https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/inside-the-o-brien-fine-foods-factory-in-lockdown-kildare-1.4330267

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/guidance/employersemployeesguidance/Interim%20Guidance%20COVID-19%20Meat%20Factories.pdf

expectationlost

DevilsHaircut wrote: »

O'Brien Fine Foods/Brady's Ham didn't follow the guidelines that applied at the time.

The workers weren't wearing masks.

John O'Brien said 'HSE advice was to wear either visors or masks'.

But it's the HSA and the HPSC who give sector guidance, and the HPSC said on 30 June:

'Ensure that all staff (including DAFM staff and contractors) wear both a mask and a visor (or a mask and goggles where goggles are available) in scenarios where there is a particular problem with physical distancing...If both cannot be worn, surgical masks are recommended above other types of masks on their own, which are preferable to visors on their own.'



https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/inside-the-o-brien-fine-foods-factory-in-lockdown-kildare-1.4330267

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/guidance/employersemployeesguidance/Interim%20Guidance%20COVID-19%20Meat%20Factories.pdf

I noticed that while reading the article, why didn't the reporter

podgeandrodge

expectationlost wrote: »

A pub and restaurant in Co Clare is to close for two weeks after a staff member tested positive for the virus.

The Creamery Bar and Restaurant in Bunratty said one staff member tested positive and as a result they are voluntarily closing. https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/irish-pub-close-14-days-22517141



their post https://www.facebook.com/the.creamery.bunratty/posts/3788857461142720?__cft__[0]=AZXsCqHlAYPW-T6KLOvKZY9MI99Goo1ZH3h5HbXq9486LeP7KeKp22rxj45dJRnS3aRHZEEtImEI_IuzfoY7wRYCfEZ1-Hi3CJFahlty5v1oeZ1YXyz3IcWbi2cljftExINbujuqE6lkhOaBALoC5wQWX88WtgQZ4T-e1IiF7PghhA&__tn__=%2CO%2CP-R

can't say no pubs have had problems now

So bound to be situations like this. When it happens close them down temporarily and move on. Not a reason to keep them all closed imo.

yosemitesam1

CalamariFritti wrote: »

I would not only say its a positive development. I would say its yet another indicator of the shortcomings of our approach to this.

It is still a possibility four/five months into this that the actual rate of which the population had been exposed to this virus is vastly underestimated.

Potentially skewing the estimated percentages of hospitalisation and ICU and ultimately IFR massively.

Its the single most important piece of information there is. And there has simply not been a serious enough attempt of getting to that information.

We're still fumbling around in the dark. Potentially ignoring the most important piece of the problem.

Which leads me to the part of this struggle against COVID that really annoys me the most.

For all the brightest heads within our society and all the resources we throw at this it's still very amateurish in a number of key aspects. Let it be the evidence on spread and infection and prevention, let it be the single most important piece of this problem. There are not serious enough attempts to get all the core information on the problem together. Amateurish. Unscientific.

Which is not me claiming that this virus has gone through our population already and we're all just panicking over nothing. But its me claiming the possibility of that is still there and we just don't fkn know. 5 months into this. Its unbelievable really.

Clinical specialists dealing with a field problem.
The vast majority are out of their depth and there isn't any voices inside the likes of nphet who do have the sort of relevant background needed to understand what is going on.

DevilsHaircut

T-cells getting politicised.

From the guy who wrote the paper:


https://twitter.com/profshanecrotty/status/1293344524731691008

https://twitter.com/EMSwami/status/1294434005056659457

1641

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

Clinical specialists dealing with a field problem.
The vast majority are out of their depth and there isn't any voices inside the likes of nphet who do have the sort of relevant background needed to understand what is going on.

What countries have done well with this, do you reckon? What have they found?

ACitizenErased

LATEST TESTING UPDATE

Tests conducted last 24 hours: 10,653
Tests conducted last 7 days: 46,912
Additional positive tests: 122
Positivity Rate last 7 days: 1.2% (-0.2%)

Oranage2

ACitizenErased wrote: »

LATEST TESTING UPDATE

Tests conducted last 24 hours: 10,653
Tests conducted last 7 days: 46,912
Additional positive tests: 122
Positivity Rate last 7 days: 1.2% (-0.2%)

Wow plus there's 70 from yesterday. Looks like we've lost control of this!

Rob A. Bank

What I don't understand about the postulated T-cell cross immunity to Covid from other human coronaviruses, like the common cold...

How come Covid-19 is killing those who have had numerous common colds over many many years, while sparing the young who have had very few common colds ?

???

Away With The Fairies

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

What I don't understand about the postulated T-cell cross immunity to Covid from other human coronaviruses, like the common cold...

How come Covid-19 is killing those who have had numerous common colds over many many years, while sparing the young who have had very few common colds ?

???

If it's based on how many colds somebody had, I'm fcuked.

BringBackMick

Oranage2 wrote: »

Wow plus there's 70 from yesterday. Looks like we've lost control of this!

They could be positive tests on people who have already been tested positive.

It is hard to judge from the number alone.

ACitizenErased

BringBackMick wrote: »

They could be positive tests on people who have already been tested positive.

It is hard to judge from the number alone.

Impossible. We could have 300 cases tonight or 20. Really don't know anymore!

ShyMets

Oranage2 wrote: »

Wow plus there's 70 from yesterday. Looks like we've lost control of this!

I love your posts. I find them wonderfully alarmist

Atlantic Dawn

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Impossible. We could have 300 cases tonight or 20. Really don't know anymore!

300 we would be as bad as Spain, 1000 we would be as bad as Brazil, 110 we would be as bad as steady as she goes do nothing and chill out with an active economy Sweden.