Covid 19 Part XXI-27,908 in ROI (1,777 deaths) 6,647 in NI (559 deaths)(22/08)Read OP

Oranage2

And we're still in phase 3, we were suppose to be lowering the number. Really is sickening, 6 months hardwork, I know we're not supposed to play the blame game but people are ducking up and it's easy to see how. 'Oh that won't effect me', 'My human rights I'm not wearing a mask'. I'm fuming at these numbers.

yosemitesam1

1641 wrote: »

What countries have done well with this, do you reckon? What have they found?

No country has carried out a proper system of testing to show how the virus is actually behaving at a population level AFAIK
The numbers have never been a representation of what's really going on in the population from the start.

Renjit

Oranage2 wrote: »

Wow plus there's 70 from yesterday. Looks like we've lost control of this!

You need to fix your formula, Morty!

stephenjmcd

Oranage2 wrote: »

And we're still in phase 3, we were suppose to be lowering the number. Really is sickening, 6 months hardwork, I know we're not supposed to play the blame game but people are ducking up and it's easy to see how. 'Oh that won't effect me', 'My human rights I'm not wearing a mask'. I'm fuming at these numbers.

Who said numbers are supposed to be lowering ?

The CMO flagged multiple times and still is that cases would rise as the country reopened. He's still flagging that there will be clusters linked to schools.

Whats happened / happening in the meat plants has unfortunately caused large case numbers.

Not seeing anyone outside of here complaining about masks, very high compliance in my experience

blowitupref

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Impossible. We could have 300 cases tonight or 20. Really don't know anymore!

Hopefully it's not near the 174 cases like last Saturday.

ACitizenErased

blowitupref wrote: »

Hopefully it's not near the 174 cases like last Saturday.

With the news of the factory in Tipp and the rumours about one or two more in Kildare it wouldn't be entirely surprising

shinzon

65 cases of Covid-19 in Northern Ireland over the past 24 hours

65 individuals have tested positive for Covid-19 in Northern Ireland over the past 24 hours.

Today's figures bring the total number of cases in the region to 6,364.

No deaths have been reported meaning the death toll remains at 558.

Yesterday, Health Minister for Northern Ireland Robin Swann said the number of close contacts linked to positive cases "has more than doubled since July".

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0815/1159333-coronavirus-ireland/

Shin

CalamariFritti

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

Clinical specialists dealing with a field problem.
The vast majority are out of their depth and there isn't any voices inside the likes of nphet who do have the sort of relevant background needed to understand what is going on.

Its the first thing you do with any problem. You get all the defining parameters together. Now in this case I grant there was a justified panic phase. But then its still the second thing you do.

5 months down the road and we still have no idea what the actual exposure to this virus is. Its shocking.

caveat emptor

Head, shoulders, knees and covidtoes covidtoes.

https://twitter.com/drzoehyde/status/1294554279785558017?s=21

Oranage2

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Who said numbers are supposed to be lowering ?

The CMO flagged multiple times and still is that cases would rise as the country reopened. He's still flagging that there will be clusters linked to schools.

Whats happened / happening in the meat plants has unfortunately caused large case numbers.

Not seeing anyone outside of here complaining about masks, very high compliance in my experience

Maybe it's grand in your 35k little town but the numbers don't lie, people are getting complacent. And I'm sure they're expecting a slight rise not the 10x we're currently experiencing. I'd suggest getting in the family activities now because it's going to be a long winter

polesheep

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

What I don't understand about the postulated T-cell cross immunity to Covid from other human coronaviruses, like the common cold...

How come Covid-19 is killing those who have had numerous common colds over many many years, while sparing the young who have had very few common colds ?

???

Your immune system grows weaker as you age.

polesheep

Oranage2 wrote: »

And we're still in phase 3, we were suppose to be lowering the number. Really is sickening, 6 months hardwork, I know we're not supposed to play the blame game but people are ducking up and it's easy to see how. 'Oh that won't effect me', 'My human rights I'm not wearing a mask'. I'm fuming at these numbers.

Any comment on the hospital numbers?

Gruffalux

ShyMets wrote: »

I love your posts. I find them wonderfully alarmist

I think Oranage and Mr Green meet for socially distanced tiffin in the afternoon.

ACitizenErased

Oranage2 wrote: »

Maybe it's grand in your 35k little town but the numbers don't lie, people are getting complacent. And I'm sure they're expecting a slight rise not the 10x we're currently experiencing. I'd suggest getting in the family activities now because it's going to be a long winter

I live just outside Cork City and mask compliance is well over 90%. The lack of cases in Cork for the past 2 weeks signifies this is true.

stephenjmcd

Oranage2 wrote: »

Maybe it's grand in your 35k little town but the numbers don't lie, people are getting complacent. And I'm sure they're expecting a slight rise not the 10x we're currently experiencing. I'd suggest getting in the family activities now because it's going to be a long winter

Well seeing as where I live is just outside Dublin and I'm in Dublin City daily for work I've not seen anyone taking the p1ss in terms of mask wearing since its become mandatory.

Well that's the general idea in summer to do the activities you want before winter rolls in.

iamwhoiam

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Well seeing as where I live is just outside Dublin and I'm in Dublin City daily for work I've not seen anyone taking the p1ss in terms of mask wearing since its become mandatory.

Well that's the general idea in summer to do the activities you want before winter rolls in.

I live in south Dublin and I see very good compliance here too . Was in Dunnes today and saw not one person over 10 years old without one .

Gruffalux

Since March I have been wearing a mask in shops and when I have to pop into work as it is a reasonable precaution. Still I must say there is something poignant even tragic about seeing everyone in masks now. All the older or lonelier people who rarely get to see a smile now or have a passing chat. Just makes me really dislike being in indoor public spaces now.

stephenjmcd

iamwhoiam wrote: »

I live in south Dublin and I see very good compliance here too . Was in Dunnes today and saw not one person over 10 years old without one .

Last few weeks it realty has improved. Transport uptake was a little slow but extremely high on services I've been on recently.

Likewise in shops as soon as the word mandatory was mentioned compliance was extremely high.

Have seen a good few parents with kids and the kids have them on in the shops

ACitizenErased

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Last few weeks it realty has improved. Transport uptake was a little slow but extremely high on services I've been on recently.

Likewise in shops as soon as the word mandatory was mentioned compliance was extremely high.

Have seen a good few parents with kids and the kids have them on in the shops

The high compliance lately would make ya wonder where people are actually picking this up. I doubt there's many picking it up in shops and on transport.

stephenjmcd

ACitizenErased wrote: »

The high compliance lately would make ya wonder where people are actually picking this up. I doubt there's many picking it up in shops and on transport.

I did actually wonder that.

Would be nice to know if they had any information to release on the covid app. Has it tracked close contacts on transport for example

feelings

Expecting a big jump in numbers this evening.

1641

CalamariFritti wrote: »

Which leads me to the part of this struggle against COVID that really annoys me the most.

For all the brightest heads within our society and all the resources we throw at this it's still very amateurish in a number of key aspects. Let it be the evidence on spread and infection and prevention, let it be the single most important piece of this problem. There are not serious enough attempts to get all the core information on the problem together. Amateurish. Unscientific.

Which is not me claiming that this virus has gone through our population already and we're all just panicking over nothing. But its me claiming the possibility of that is still there and we just don't fkn know. 5 months into this. Its unbelievable really.

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

Clinical specialists dealing with a field problem.
The vast majority are out of their depth and there isn't any voices inside the likes of nphet who do have the sort of relevant background needed to understand what is going on.

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

No country has carried out a proper system of testing to show how the virus is actually behaving at a population level AFAIK
The numbers have never been a representation of what's really going on in the population from the start.

So not just Ireland and not just NEPHET? Amateurish, unscientific, unqualified, people everywhere then?


Sounds like, if we are ever to find out what is really going on, you guys will have to proffer your services?:D

ElTel

Drumpot wrote: »

I know this is only a snippet of the overall numbers but how can they be struggling to get a reasonable asymptomatic number ? How do they vary so much from country to country depending on who is working it out?

I know without testing everybody daily you can’t know for sure, but I’ve been seeing suggestions that asymptomatic cases are as low as 5% to now as high as 97%. There are of course mitigating factors but can they explain such a difference in asymptomatic projections?

Is it mutation? Is it that we have simply underestimated the amount infected and thus over estimated how dangerous it is (in terms of mortality)? Maybe lower viral loads from mask wearing but infection spreading more? (People more lax in masks?)

What’s the thoughts?

It's intriguing all right.
It appears we already have some resistance but perhaps the big factor is the initial infection dose. There is a threshold dose that triggers a stronger immune response and thus leads to symptoms?

The PCR test may be picking up people who have recovered?

Away With The Fairies

Just been on the HSE website and if you have symptoms you can get a test or if you're a close contact of a confirmed case you can also get a test.

Had someone in work take a few days off with no symptoms and went for a test. This is kind of telling me that they must have been a close contact of a confirmed case. Their test came back negative and they went into work.

If you're a close contact, shouldn't you also be self isolating even if you get a negative test?

Le Bruise

feelings wrote: »

Expecting a big jump in numbers this evening.

Based on feelings?

ACitizenErased

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

Just been on the HSE website and if you have symptoms you can get a test or if you're a close contact of a confirmed case you can also get a test.

Had someone in work take a few days off with no symptoms and went for a test. This is kind of telling me that they must have been a close contact of a confirmed case. Their test came back negative and they went into work.

If you're a close contact, shouldn't you also be self isolating even if you get a negative test?

Depends on if the HSE want you to get a day 7 test or not. If you were in contact with a person greater than the average serial interval then I would assume they'd tell you to go back to work.

Boggles

Le Bruise wrote: »

Based on feelings?

Based on 70 odd swabs not accounted for yesterday, 120 odd today and the added dimension of private testing.

There could well be a big one.

But it has turned into quite the lotto of late, so God knows.

Atlantic Dawn

Boggles wrote: »

Based on 70 odd swabs not accounted for yesterday, 120 odd today and the added dimension of private testing.

There could well be a big one.

But it has turned into quite the lotto of late, so God knows.

It probably wouldn't be too PC for a bookies to allow you to place bets on how many new cases happen each day but it would add an element of enterainment to proceedings. They could also have the option of lower/higher than the day before or betting on an odd/even number for those unsure what to bet on.

Boggles

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

It probably wouldn't be too PC for a bookies to allow you to place bets on how many new cases happen each day but it would add an element of enterainment to proceedings. They could also have the option of lower/higher than the day before or betting on an odd/even number for those unsure what to bet on.

They should stop daily reporting and only do it every week.

Proper shít your pants entertainment.

RoryMac

Boggles wrote: »

They should stop daily reporting and only do it every week.

Proper shít your pants entertainment.

Marty Whelan could host it on a Friday night in a play your cards right style, sell scratch cards and it you match the number you win a holiday to a green list country

owlbethere

Is being asymptomatic really a thing with this virus? Or would people be more like pre symptomatic more so than asymptomatic? Or maybe some people are not doing their civil duty of reducing movements and close contacts if they don't feel well.

I was talking to a lady I know who's a nurse. She was tested a few months ago because of her job and she tested positive. She claimed to have no symptoms and she claimed to be asymptomatic. She said she didn't even have a cold and then she went on to say, she did have a cough but aside from that she was grand. That's not really asymptomatic, now is it?

spookwoman

owlbethere wrote: »

Is being asymptomatic really a thing with this virus? Or would people be more like pre symptomatic more so than asymptomatic? Or maybe some people are not doing their civil duty of reducing movements and close contacts if they don't feel well.

I was talking to a lady I know who's a nurse. She was tested a few months ago because of her job and she tested positive. She claimed to have no symptoms and she claimed to be asymptomatic. She said she didn't even have a cold and then she went on to say, she did have a cough but aside from that she was grand. That's not really asymptomatic, now is it?

Well if you go by the dictionary meaning of asymptomatic (of a person or illness) having no symptoms) coughing is not asymptomatic.

Sounds like they are trying to make up an excuse for whatever reason.

MerlinSouthDub

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I live just outside Cork City and mask compliance is well over 90%. The lack of cases in Cork for the past 2 weeks signifies this is true.

Just visiting Cork this week and I have to say that mask wearing and hygiene in shops (everyone using sanitiser, tighter control of numbers going into the shop) are both noticeably better than where I live in Dublin

caveat emptor

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

It probably wouldn't be too PC for a bookies to allow you to place bets on how many new cases happen each day but it would add an element of enterainment to proceedings. They could also have the option of lower/higher than the day before or betting on an odd/even number for those unsure what to bet on.

While it’s easy to rig a horse or dog race, rigging this would be child’s play. When’re there were too many positives you could claim ‘backlog’
Add them at a later date when no one expects it and claim “germany”

Won’t stop people on here “predicting”.
Should be a weekly thing to iron out the kinks and really see the trend.

Dr Glynn said that each case is a person so it would be in very bad taste considering the subject matter.

caveat emptor

owlbethere wrote: »

Is being asymptomatic really a thing with this virus? Or would people be more like pre symptomatic more so than asymptomatic? Or maybe some people are not doing their civil duty of reducing movements and close contacts if they don't feel well.

I was talking to a lady I know who's a nurse. She was tested a few months ago because of her job and she tested positive. She claimed to have no symptoms and she claimed to be asymptomatic. She said she didn't even have a cold and then she went on to say, she did have a cough but aside from that she was grand. That's not really asymptomatic, now is it?

Yeah it’s a weird area. Presympromatic spread is real (as it is in the flu). Asymptomatic spread is also real.

https://twitter.com/alinouriphd/status/1294421640735072259?s=21

ACitizenErased

Saliva test given approval by US FDA
https://twitter.com/aslavitt/status/1294654256763609090?s=21

BLIZZARD7

ACitizenErased wrote: »

LATEST TESTING UPDATE

Tests conducted last 24 hours: 10,653
Tests conducted last 7 days: 46,912
Additional positive tests: 122
Positivity Rate last 7 days: 1.2% (-0.2%)

Where do you find this info? Interesting discrepancy between the swab tests and our official numbers. (I Know some of these are repeat testing on the same person)

igCorcaigh

On the debate about seroprevalence.

It's very frustrating that we cannot know if someone has been exposed to the virus or not, as antibodies do not seem to persist and no cheap and reliable way of T cell testing.

Are we relying then on clinical reporting as a measure of population exposure?

There must be some way of using statistics to determine how far the virus has moved through a population?

owlbethere

caveat emptor wrote: »

Yeah it’s a weird area. Presympromatic spread is real (as it is in the flu). Asymptomatic spread is also real.

https://twitter.com/alinouriphd/status/1294421640735072259?s=21

Some of this list may not apply to a lot of Irish people though. List cross immunity from other coronaviruses. Genetic factors - I presume something like this might mean a baby born to a mother who has the virus or something like that. I remember a report from a few months ago saying something like it's estimated that 8% of Europeans might have some immunity or genetic component in their make up that will protect them. 8% is very low.

As more people move about and when pubs and schools reopen, many people will probably make up their own rules on the guidelines and viral loads will probably increase.

caveat emptor

We are bucking the trend. Let's see if it holds.
Great to see localised lockdown seems to be working.

owlbethere

igCorcaigh wrote: »

On the debate about seroprevalence.

It's very frustrating that we cannot know if someone has been exposed to the virus or not, as antibodies do not seem to persist and no no cheap and reliable way of T cell testing.

Are we relying then on clinical reporting as a measure of population exposure?

There must be some way of using statistics to determine how far the virus has moved through a population?

How much would T cell testing be? There were reports here from people being ill before this emerged and people suspecting they may already have this. If its a few hundred euro, one could pay the money to find out. For medical and science research. If I was ill last winter and suspect I had it, I would go down the private route and test, just to see.

ACitizenErased

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Where do you find this info? Interesting discrepancy between the swab tests and our official numbers. (I Know some of these are repeat testing on the same person)

The hse covid dashboard

igCorcaigh

owlbethere wrote: »

How much would T cell testing be? There were reports here from people being ill before this emerged and people suspecting they may already have this. If its a few hundred euro, one could pay the money to find out. For medical and science research. If I was ill last winter and suspect I had it, I would go down the private route and test, just to see.

It would have to be done at a significant population level, and even then, is it conclusive of exposure?

CalamariFritti

1641 wrote: »

So not just Ireland and not just NEPHET? Amateurish, unscientific, unqualified, people everywhere then?


Sounds like, if we are ever to find out what is really going on, you guys will have to proffer your services?:D

I know what this sounds like. I'm not that stupid. But some stuff I would really like an explanation for. It just doesn't add up.

prunudo

caveat emptor wrote: »

We are bucking the trend. Let's see if it holds.
Great to see localised lockdown seems to be working.

Netherlands going with a fair steady climb there, wonder whats driving that?

igCorcaigh

I just want this idea of the virus being around for many months before it spread from Chinina to be tested. It's a nagging idea in the back of my mind.

I know many have dismissed it, as I have done.

Surely, we would have picked up on illness and deaths back in late winter last year?

But, I dunno. The idea still is still nagging me.

owlbethere

igCorcaigh wrote: »

It would have to be done at a significant population level, and even then, is it conclusive of exposure?

Well maybe the authorities can start of small on this. Maybe put out a request for people who were ill last winter who might like to test their t cells to see if they were exposed to this virus. Depending, on the results that they find from a group of people, and if results show a positive, they could start implementing more testing of the population.

Tork

prunudo wrote: »

Netherlands going with a fair steady climb there, wonder whats driving that?

They're not taking the measures we are. No masks, little social distancing etc.

is_that_so

igCorcaigh wrote: »

I just want this idea of the virus being around for many months before it spread from Chinina to be tested. It's a nagging idea in the back of my mind.

I know many have dismissed it, as I have done.

Surely, we would have picked up on illness and deaths back in late winter last year?

But, I dunno. The idea still is still nagging me.

In early days of testing DeGascun more than once said people had other things. There seems to be evidence of it in a case in France in December and in waste water earlier but it doesn't look like it was spreading then.

igCorcaigh

owlbethere wrote: »

Well maybe the authorities can start of small on this. Maybe put out a request for people who were ill last winter who might like to test their t cells to see if they were exposed to this virus. Depending, on the results that they find from a group of people, and if results show a positive, they could start implementing more testing of the population.

Not sure if that's practical or cost effective at a time when we're trying to contain the thing.