Covid 19 Part XXI-27,908 in ROI (1,777 deaths) 6,647 in NI (559 deaths)(22/08)Read OP

CalamariFritti

GooglePlus wrote: »

The self entitlement of some people who think they're above wearing a mask is shocking.

They're happy out not wearing one as their head is already up their hole so they're safe.

Its not any worse as those patronising posts telling us the umpteenth time how stupid and selfish these people are for the sake of some cheap thanks.

The masks narrative has been one single disaster from start to finish. Do you think its a good idea we all fall into line behind our 'leaders' without questioning anything? Don't you think we need to keep them honest?

What Username Guidelines

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Struggling to figure out how the virus got back in to NZ

If there are far more asymptomatic then we believe it could be circulating very stealthily, their quarantine squashing most of it but it still pops up eventually. That is a stretch though.

It's also a month or so after flu season there (not comparing severity, just the way it acts) which is when covid seems to hit most places. I have no idea why or how that works, just more observational.

Seems the same in latitudes across the states, with the outlier being Louisiana which has a more spread-out peak earlier, but it sits in line with lots of travel from elsewhere during Mardis Gras.

Basically, I've become interested in seasonal nature of viruses and the more I read, the less I find debunking. I'd like to see evidence to prove it wrong because it makes no sense to me. Yes, we're still finding a lot of cases and we couldn't be further from flu season, but our deaths are very very low now - along with Italy/Spain/UK/Sweden etc..

s1ippy

Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »

I think you know the answer to that question.

It's their own personal family medical situation though, I'm wary about prying. I've been in touch asking if we're still good to go tomorrow, but I don't expect that they'll get the hint if I do it subtly. I don't want to be burning bridges with them either.

marno21

The New Zealand case we’re hearing about this morning, in a country ideally suited for eradication, should finally put to bed the “zero Covid island” approach we keep hearing about for Ireland.

It’s a nice idea in theory but it is a total non runner in practice

seanb85

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Struggling to figure out how the virus got back in to NZ

A lot of people don't spread it much and at least 20% of cases show no symptoms, could have been a

chain of asymptomatic spread from the initial outbreak, odds are huge but not impossible.

Another possibility is the incubation period could be much longer than 14 days, I did see some Chinese reports of some cases where it was over 20 days.

I suppose as well it may survive better on surfaces than we think, New Zealand would still be importing stuff. I think China blamed imported salmon for some cases in Beijing.

seamus

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Struggling to figure out how the virus got back in to NZ

I'm not sure the "it's been circulating in the thousands all this time but everyone is asymptomatic" theory is reasonable unless the virus had mutated. If it was circulating in asymptomatic people for any reasonable amount of time, it would pop up relatively quickly.

It's worth remembering that despite the praise NZ has gotten, it is still a society just like ours, filled with people just like us, who make mistakes and make iffy decisions.

I think the most likely explanation is that there was some lapse in quarantine - either someone was given a special exemption to leave quarantine for a short period, or staff working at the quarantine accidentally breached hygiene protocols, and the infection managed to get out.

JDD

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

If there are far more asymptomatic then we believe it could be circulating very stealthily, their quarantine squashing most of it but it still pops up eventually. That is a stretch though.

It's also a month or so after flu season there (not comparing severity, just the way it acts) which is when covid seems to hit most places. I have no idea why or how that works, just more observational.

Seems the same in latitudes across the states, with the outlier being Louisiana which has a more spread-out peak earlier, but it sits in line with lots of travel from elsewhere during Mardis Gras.

Basically, I've become interested in seasonal nature of viruses and the more I read, the less I find debunking. I'd like to see evidence to prove it wrong because it makes no sense to me. Yes, we're still finding a lot of cases and we couldn't be further from flu season, but our deaths are very very low now - along with Italy/Spain/UK/Sweden etc..

So you think it's somehow tied into flu season, or at least early spring rather than any direct connection to the flu? Why would it have spread in China in Nov/Dec/Jan then? Would that be connected to a rainy/dry season rather than a set four seasons?

And South America (lets forget Brazil) should have had a lesser outbreak in March - May, and should in fact be having their steep increase in cases now. I don't know about Argentina/Columbia etc, but Chile/Peru had a huge surge of cases in June. That doesn't quite fit in with your theory.

And then we have the US. However I think the cases in Texas/California/Florida are less to do with seasons, and more to do with everyone being indoors in air conditioning (cinemas, shopping etc) during the hot summer months. Perversely they may get less virus instances in the winter as you'd be outside more - in the temperate areas anyway, if not in the high regions of Texas/California that get cold winters.

blowitupref

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

Knock Shrine in Mayo announced it will be closed on August 15, the Feast of the Assumption, to prevent large gatherings of crowds

The travelling community are still going to turn up to that in their 100s and when you consider a few clusters has shown up from their gatherings such as funerals recently it won't be a surprise if another of batch of cases comes from that.

Hector Savage

seamus wrote: »

There is no requirement to wear masks while outside on the street.

You're probably right, there will be a significant set of information campaigns encouraging people to wear masks when they have a cold or flu and are out in public places, as well as standing advice to stay home if at all possible.

These are things we should have been doing for the last century with our improved understanding of epidemiology.

But instead we can't be arsed with all that and we go out and about spreading viruses and conditioning ourselves to accept that there is a "flu season" even though it's entirely and easily preventable.

Will it remain mandatory to wear masks indoors? No. You can only enforce the laws that people accept. Will be acceptable to tut at people out and about in public with snuffly noses and coughs? Yep. And rightly so.

Sorry I'm in Spain.

Itssoeasy

seamus wrote: »

I'm not sure the "it's been circulating in the thousands all this time but everyone is asymptomatic" theory is reasonable unless the virus had mutated. If it was circulating in asymptomatic people for any reasonable amount of time, it would pop up relatively quickly.

It's worth remembering that despite the praise NZ has gotten, it is still a society just like ours, filled with people just like us, who make mistakes and make iffy decisions.

I think the most likely explanation is that there was some lapse in quarantine - either someone was given a special exemption to leave quarantine for a short period, or staff working at the quarantine accidentally breached hygiene protocols, and the infection managed to get out.

And I think it should be praised to a point. My issue was that it was being compared to us when outside of population being similar there are many differences which don't make it a fair comparison.

But yeah it's a worry.

LuckyLloyd

The Unbearables wrote: »

Breaking news: Russia has successfully developed the vaccine. Its over folks.

This is definitely the news of the day.

Itssoeasy

I see Russia is saying it's got a vaccine. I wouldnt be breaking out the champagne just yet because as I understand it developing a vaccine isn't the hardest part, it's making sure it's safe is the part that takes time.

ninebeanrows

Can you imagine living through the draconian measures likely to result in NZ as they finally realise they have to live with the virus not shut it out. Unless they want to shut off their country for 3-5yrs, not sustainable

Of course the plan looks great on paper from a health perspective but it's just storing up a shock

owlbethere

I read on Facebook on a group, community transmission has occurred in new Zealand so they are closing all schools now.

We still have some community transmissions occurring and we are considering opening ours.

LuckyLloyd

Itssoeasy wrote: »

I see Russia is saying it's got a vaccine. I wouldnt be breaking out the champagne just yet because as I understand it developing a vaccine isn't the hardest part, it's making sure it's safe is the part that takes time.

Well they're about to roll out a million doses as part of the most ambitious phase III trial in history so we'll know in a couple of months!

What Username Guidelines

JDD wrote: »

So you think it's somehow tied into flu season, or at least early spring rather than any direct connection to the flu? Why would it have spread in China in Nov/Dec/Jan then? Would that be connected to a rainy/dry season rather than a set four seasons?

And South America (lets forget Brazil) should have had a lesser outbreak in March - May, and should in fact be having their steep increase in cases now. I don't know about Argentina/Columbia etc, but Chile/Peru had a huge surge of cases in June. That doesn't quite fit in with your theory.

And then we have the US. However I think the cases in Texas/California/Florida are less to do with seasons, and more to do with everyone being indoors in air conditioning (cinemas, shopping etc) during the hot summer months. Perversely they may get less virus instances in the winter as you'd be outside more - in the temperate areas anyway, if not in the high regions of Texas/California that get cold winters.

Not necessarily my theory, just a theory I have become interested in.

There are 4 zones from north to south that have varying flu* seasons. North temperate (Europe, Northern American States, etc) North Tropical (Southern US States) South Tropical (South America, etc) South Temperate (Aus, NZ, Argentina, South Africa etc). The general marker between temperate and tropical is about 35'N and 30'S.

Note that this is one aspect of spread along with travel/Testing capabilities, etc.. It does line up with typical flu* spikes and waves, although these can move slightly by a number of weeks depending on location. The initial cases in Aus could in fact be travel related but it didn't take hold until it entered their season. South Africa too.

*I'm hesitant to use the term flu as lots may label me as "just the flu" type, it's more the seasonal aspect I'm interested in, not the comparison with severity. Along with the fact the lockdown and measures were based on uncontrollable spread that wouldn't stop until 70% of the entire population were infected. If covid was in fact an influenza strain, not a coronavirus, would we be looking at a flu pandemic response instead?

froog

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

If there are far more asymptomatic then we believe it could be circulating very stealthily, their quarantine squashing most of it but it still pops up eventually. That is a stretch though.

It's also a month or so after flu season there (not comparing severity, just the way it acts) which is when covid seems to hit most places. I have no idea why or how that works, just more observational.

Seems the same in latitudes across the states, with the outlier being Louisiana which has a more spread-out peak earlier, but it sits in line with lots of travel from elsewhere during Mardis Gras.

Basically, I've become interested in seasonal nature of viruses and the more I read, the less I find debunking. I'd like to see evidence to prove it wrong because it makes no sense to me. Yes, we're still finding a lot of cases and we couldn't be further from flu season, but our deaths are very very low now - along with Italy/Spain/UK/Sweden etc..

WHO have said there is no evidence coronavirus is seasonal.

drunkmonkey

marno21 wrote: »

The New Zealand case we’re hearing about this morning, in a country ideally suited for eradication, should finally put to bed the “zero Covid island” approach we keep hearing about for Ireland.

It’s a nice idea in theory but it is a total non runner in practice

What ever about that blip our current approach has no hope. I'll take New Zelands approach over ours any day.

What it does highlight is the max 14 day incubation advised by the WHO is utter bollix as usual from them.

Itssoeasy

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Well they're about to roll out a million doses as part of the most ambitious phase III trial in history so we'll know in a couple of months!

And given it's a Russian trial it'll either be like yuri Gagarin in yostok 1 and a huge russian triumph or like Soyuz 1 which was a death trap and Vladimir komarov the cosmonaut died a horrible death because the parachutes failed and the capsule slammed into the ground.

What Username Guidelines

froog wrote: »

WHO have said there is no evidence coronavirus is seasonal.

They haven't said it isn't, but there are places now showing that it may be. NY, Sweden, etc, down to minimal numbers. Everyone 2 weeks ago was talking about Florida, Arizona and Texas running out of ICU beds, and now they're trending down after a mixed and haphazard response.

Obviously the constraint here is time, we need to observe what happens over a longer period. It's just interesting that all of these responses to the pandemic in every country were based on unstoppable spread with a high mortality rate.

If places that didn't lockdown hard are trending down, it's either seasonal, has some sort of limiting factor (previous immunity?) or there are 100x the cases out there and many more have had it. The latter is unlikely but if true, then the mortality rate is lower than feared.

JDD

froog wrote: »

WHO have said there is no evidence coronavirus is seasonal.

WHO also said there was no evidence of asymptomatic spread of the virus, that masks would not help prevent the spread of the virus and that they believed China only had 80k cases.

WHO are generally staffed by good people who are doing their best, but they are fumbling in the dark, just like everyone else.

Deeper Blue

Can you imagine the meltdown in here if we'd done what New Zealand did and now we had cases popping up at random

The Unbearables

Itssoeasy wrote: »

And given it's a Russian trial it'll either be like yuri Gagarin in yostok 1 and a huge russian triumph or like Soyuz 1 which was death trap and Vladimir komorov the cosmonaut died a horrible death because the parachutes failed and the capsule slammed into the ground.

The Russians are an incredible people. If this vaccine was developed in the UK, the US or Germany this would be leading the news worldwide.

This is really big news but because of the anti Russia phobia that western media pushes on it's people it's viewed as some sort of negative when i fact this could be the beginning of the end of this virus.

JDD

The Unbearables wrote: »

The Russians are an incredible people. If this vaccine was developed in the UK, the US or Germany this would be leading the news worldwide.

This is really big news but because of the anti Russia phobia that western media pushes on it's people it's viewed as some sort of negative when i fact this could be the beginning of the end of this virus.

It could, but they are not a transparent country and are run by a megalomaniac who would do anything to be the country that saved the world. Forgive me if I wait twelve months to ensure that this vaccine doesn't make me blind or give me heart disease. That's not based on biased western media demonising Russia, it's just basic truth.

Drumpot

The Unbearables wrote: »

The Russians are an incredible people. If this vaccine was developed in the UK, the US or Germany this would be leading the news worldwide.

This is really big news but because of the anti Russia phobia that western media pushes on it's people it's viewed as some sort of negative when i fact this could be the beginning of the end of this virus.

I think you need to separate the Russian people from those ruling them. Chernobyl really brought to light what a wonderful people they can be in adversity and how the ruling class can use and abuse them.

It’s effectively a dictatorship with a democracy sticker to look legitimate. I feel for the people of that country, they are effectively a guinea pig to make Putin/Russia look good, that’s just really sad.

CIARAN_BOYLE

How long does it take to get a test appointment at the moment.

I started having symptoms yesterday morning. Rang my gp yesterday lunch time. Had a telephone consultation today morning. When will I get an appointment.

I've lost track of what's published about the length of the cycle.

drunkmonkey

El Sueño wrote: »

Can you imagine the meltdown in here if we'd done what New Zealand did and now we had cases popping up at random

There not random there's a reason we just don't know what it is yet.
Can you imagine how happy everyone would be if life carried on as normal here and we only had to lockdown one area.
Instead we've turned the people on each other like dogs, Newstalk was an eye opener earlier on as to how nasty the mask brigade have become.

Paddygreen

owlbethere wrote: »

I read on Facebook on a group, community transmission has occurred in new Zealand so they are closing all schools now.

We still have some community transmissions occurring and we are considering opening ours.

Everything except for the supermarkets and pharmacies should be closed until at least next March. Close it all now. If we stay at home and listen to the experts we can win the war on Coronavirus. Holding firm is the only answer as we stay home to save lives going forward. Things like clapping for our hero’s will keep the morale huge enough to make it past The holidays. We need to STAY SAFE guys, frankly I think going any further than my local Spar is too much of a risk right now. I am beyond petrified, nine on a scale on one to ten, I can’t even eat my lunch.

An Ciarraioch

Drumpot wrote: »

I think you need to separate the Russian people from those ruling them. Chernobyl really brought to light what a wonderful people they can be in adversity and how the ruling class can use and abuse them.

It’s effectively a dictatorship with a democracy sticker to look legitimate. I feel for the people of that country, they are effectively a guinea pig to make Putin/Russia look good, that’s just really sad.

Indeed, the main scepticism is the turnaround time between development and release - if it was any other country the same "wait and see" perspective regarding potential side effects would be taken.

DebDynamite

drunkmonkey wrote: »

There not random there's a reason we just don't know what it is yet.
Can you imagine how happy everyone would be if life carried on as normal here and we only had to lockdown one area.
Instead we've turned the people on each other like dogs, Newstalk was an eye opener earlier on as to how nasty the mask brigade have become.

Exactly. Up until yesterday New Zealanders were living in relative normality: crowds could go to sporting events, bars were open, they could shake hands and embrace each other, no masks, etc. Only thing they couldn’t do was travel abroad on holidays. I, and I imagine most people, could live with that for a year quite easily.