Covid 19 Part XXI-27,908 in ROI (1,777 deaths) 6,647 in NI (559 deaths)(22/08)Read OP

Gruffalux

ACitizenErased wrote: »

If there’s no significant rise in admissions two to three weeks from now we can assume this is true. I don’t buy the whole “its only young people getting infected” malarky.

Your daily case analyses show it is by far mostly below 50 years old people getting it now.

Plus in my earlier back of the envelope calculations I showed how the virus cases figures could have been validly reported every single night from March to end of June as 2200 daily cases. So now, even on a bad numbers day like today, we are very low compared to where we were in April, say, when the virus had spent a few months at the beginning of the year building up a head of steam.

In my opinion that is why hospital figures are low. Not because virus is weaker. Older people are minding themselves. And we have way less, really fractions of, the virus infections in the country than what we had at peak.

LiquidZeb

Arghus wrote: »

Who said that?

I had a poster tell me a 2000 increase in annual cancer deaths was no big deal

Jim_Hodge

ThunbergsAreGo wrote: »

Viruses adapt, its not in its interests to kill us, as it then dies itself

Viruses don't mutate with any intention. It can't decide to be more or less virulent or lethal.

Boggles

LiquidZeb wrote: »

Yeah one typo demolished my argument. So breast check and other cancer screenings are all for the craic? What's your authority on that?

Seriously?

Jesus.

To quote Doctor Ronan last week "Google it" or start a separate thread.

JP Liz V1

200 cases that's high

LiquidZeb

Boggles wrote: »

Seriously?

Jesus.

To quote Doctor Ronan last week "Google it" or start a separate thread.

Yes muinteoir, tá bron orm a muinteoir. Who do you think you are lad, seriously? Acting the dick on an internet forum doesn't make you an intellectual. It's sad really.

Boggles

LiquidZeb wrote: »

Yes muinteoir, tá bron orm a muinteoir. Who do you think you are lad, seriously? Acting the dick on an internet forum doesn't make you an intellectual. It's sad really.

I completely agree.

Have a good one.

SmurfX

Redordeadqwwer wrote: »

I'm clinging to the idea that it has lost potency. So many asymptomatic cases.

You'd really have to wonder how many people have/had it altogether. It's obviously much more prevalent than we know. This has to be a good thing?

There have been suggestions based on the disparity of deaths between southern US states in summer and northern states in April that it's much less virulent in warm weather.

If true it would be worrying news for the months ahead as we've yet to see Covid in the depths of the northern hemisphere winter.

Itssoeasy

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

I assume you meant shops. In which case maybe you should say some shops. Every shop, bar one, I have been to has insisted on masks and refuse entry without them. The one that allowed people without masks has lost custom as some people will no longer go to them because of the lax protocols.

Good to hear.

brick tamland

podgeandrodge wrote: »

Like most, I'm wearing masks because they are mandatory. I think they may be of use in crowded public transport where you can't do sweet feck all about people sniffling and coughing beside you for an hour, and other confined spaces for a significant amount of time, but outside that I think it's a big big mistake to attribute low cases in certain areas to mask compliance.

Only a couple of months back we had feck all community transmission and practically zero cases in supermarkets (and I don't buy into the counter argument that there were less people shopping in them, not significantly less and it's easy to distance in a supermarket).

No doubt whatsoever that a mask will help if you're unlucky enough to be sneezed or coughed on, but let's face it, that doesn't happen that much. And wandering around Tesco doesn't put you in the frontline of a heavy viral load or, as the Govt. still states, close contact for 15 minutes.

So imo, having a qualification to give uneducated opinions on Covid transmission, the increase in community transmission has nothing to do with lower mask compliance in those areas. And as others have pointed out, mask compliance is pretty high everywhere anyway.

I know I'll be flamed for my opinion, but if masks disappeared tomorrow from easy to distance retail spaces, I don't think it would impact cases that much.

Cases are coming from workers in close proximity to each other (who should wear masks if that's the case) and in certain accomodation types.

100% agree with all of this

I'd be all for masks on public transport, waiting rooms ect. But lots are vastly overestimating their usefullness in retail shops. That's not where the problems are (short of someone coughing directly on you)

Renjit

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

Viruses don't mutate with any intention. It can't decide to be more or less virulent or lethal.

This line also applies to humans now with mask deniers in absolute swing

Evolution does not necessarily

reward intelligence.

With no natural predators

to thin the herd...

it began to simply reward those

who reproduced the most...

and left the intelligent

to become an endangered species.

LiquidZeb

Boggles wrote: »

I completely agree.

Have a good one.

How am I the dick? Look at how you speak to anyone who disagrees with you? It's pathetic really

Arghus

LiquidZeb wrote: »

I had a poster tell me a 2000 increase in annual cancer deaths was no big deal

I must have missed that. Where?

LiquidZeb

Arghus wrote: »

I must have missed that. Where?

9000 cancer deaths could be 11,000 next year, but social contact won’t influence this.


Courtesy of strumms page 220.

Arghus

It was this weekend that Ireland was going to be "done" with Covid according to Michael Levitt.

He's won a Nobel prize(in an unrelated field), so he must be right.

Wild Field 1831

At the start of phase 3 in June we had the numbers well under control. I think Dr. Holohan's phrase was 'we had a bit of room to play with'.

It's disheartening to see that our wriggle room is disappearing quickly, not just in the LOKdown counties but nationally.

Before any of us apportion blame it's a reminder that this is an unpredictable, f*cker of a virus. People have to live and interact and this has to be balanced with restrictions on occasion. It's really hard for those in control to find the balance. Very easy for us hurlers on the ditch.

We're all in limbo at the moment. Everyone has their own worries, be it financial, being in a risk category, being older, being a 20 something who just wants to live.

seanb85

Arghus wrote: »

It was this weekend that Ireland was going to be "done" with Covid according to Michael Levitt.

He's won a Nobel prize(in an unrelated field), so he must be right.

I've been astonished by the number of highly qualified "experts" that have peddled absolute nonsense during this. Pandemics don't magically disappear in a few months. Quackery is alive and well it seems.

GazzaL

Strumms wrote: »

Most retail spaces meet this criterial.

I was in a hardware store today that would be considered ‘easy to distance’...problem is, the facility might enable distancing, but distancing itself is down to individuals... 100% of people cannot be trusted or will just make an error, masks are required, simply needed.

You can't trust people to wear masks properly either so why make them wear them at all?

People feel more invincible wearing masks and are therefore less likely to use social distancing and good hygiene.

leahyl

Wild Field 1831 wrote: »

At the start of phase 3 in June we had the numbers well under control. I think Dr. Holohan's phrase was 'we had a bit of room to play with'.

It's disheartening to see that our wriggle room is disappearing quickly, not just in the LOKdown counties but nationally.

Before any of us apportion blame it's a reminder that this is an unpredictable, f*cker of a virus. People have to live and interact and this has to be balanced with restrictions on occasion. It's really hard for those in control to find the balance. Very easy for us hurlers on the ditch.

We're all in limbo at the moment. Everyone has their own worries, be it financial, being in a risk category, being older, being a 20 something who just wants to live.

Good post. Everyone is suffering in some way with this virus, some worse than others, but it is affecting us all.

JP Liz V1

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I don't usually agree with you at all but the Kildare situation was let get way too out of hand

Is all or most Kildare cases from meat factories?

Tork

Oh we're back to the "people can't wear masks properly and they're fiddling with them" again, are we?

growleaves

Ineedaname wrote: »

I dont think anyone is disputing that some are left with long term effects. The issue is how common they are.

Some say most will make a full recovery. Some say most will be left with life long issues. The truth is most likely somewhere in the middle.

Time will tell

The truth is that despite thousands of repetitions of the word "novel" it will be about the same as influenza, novovirus, glandular fever etc.

The desperate seizing on every unusual case with after-effects anywhere in the world tells its own story.

LiquidZeb

seanb85 wrote: »

I've been astonished by the number of highly qualified "experts" that have peddled absolute nonsense during this. Pandemics don't magically disappear in a few months. Quackery is alive and well it seems.

At the same time lets remember Neil Ferguson who took his covid projections so seriously that he himself violated lockdown so he could go off and shag a married woman.

fr336

LiquidZeb wrote: »

I had a poster tell me a 2000 increase in annual cancer deaths was no big deal

Link please

fr336

LiquidZeb wrote: »

At the same time lets remember Neil Ferguson who took his covid projections so seriously that he himself violated lockdown so he could go off and shag a married woman.

Just because hes a hypocrite doesnt mean he shouldnt have taken his own very good advice. And oh no not the married woman....what does that hae to do with anything?

Boggles

GazzaL wrote: »

You can't trust people to wear masks seat belts properly either so why make them wear them at all?

FYP in a vain attempt to point you in the direction of you tiring constant folly.

LiquidZeb

fr336 wrote: »

Link please

I already quoted it to arghus. The original post is on page 220 go find it yourself

Loafing Oaf

fr336 wrote: »

And oh no not the married woman....what does that hae to do with anything?

Less chance of getting infected by an unattached bit on the side. Possibly...

Wild Field 1831

leahyl wrote: »

Good post. Everyone is suffering in some way with this virus, some worse than others, but it is affecting us all.

Just personally a feeling of not knowing whether I'm coming or going!

We're in the middle of something that can't be properly analysed until it's well over.

All the questions of which lockdown measures are best. People not being able to make consultant appointments and more deaths from other causes etc, our longterm mental health, suicides. There will be huge evaluation needed. Maybe, hopefully, we're doing the right things. But I don't think we can say for definite now.

fr336

LiquidZeb wrote: »

I already quoted it to arghus. The original post is on page 220 go find it yourself

All i can see on p220 is you accusing the poster of not caring about cancer deaths. Not them saying its no big deal.

Wild Field 1831

seanb85 wrote: »

I've been astonished by the number of highly qualified "experts" that have peddled absolute nonsense during this. Pandemics don't magically disappear in a few months. Quackery is alive and well it seems.

That's the problem with experts and I suppose most of us..we think we know it all!! Now and again we're given reminders that no matter how great our intellect, we're not infallible.

ACitizenErased

Gruffalox wrote: »

Your daily case analyses show it is by far mostly below 50 years old people getting it now.

Plus in my earlier back of the envelope calculations I showed how the virus cases figures could have been validly reported every single night from March to end of June as 2200 daily cases. So now, even on a bad numbers day like today, we are very low compared to where we were in April, say, when the virus had spent a few months at the beginning of the year building up a head of steam.

In my opinion that is why hospital figures are low. Not because virus is weaker. Older people are minding themselves. And we have way less, really fractions of, the virus infections in the country than what we had at peak.

But younger people are just as susceptible, apparently?

LiquidZeb

fr336 wrote: »

Just because hes a hypocrite doesnt mean he shouldnt have taken his own very good advice. And oh no not the married woman....what does that hae to do with anything?

All I'm saying is that bull**** predictions regarding covid have come from both sides. I really couldn't give a **** about Neil Ferguson's sex life other than the hypocrisy of it

Strumms

GazzaL wrote: »

You can't trust people to wear masks properly either so why make them wear them at all?

People feel more invincible wearing masks and are therefore less likely to use social distancing and good hygiene.

If people go to the trouble of procuring and wearing masks properly they generally are focusing on being diligent in halting the spread of covid. People who are diligently doing their bit are also focused on distancing, sanitation and ALL of the other habits and responsibilities and requirements to keep themselves and others in the community safe.

Boggles

Wild Field 1831 wrote: »

All the questions of which lockdown measures are best. People not being able to make consultant appointments and more deaths from other causes etc, our longterm mental health, suicides. There will be huge evaluation needed. Maybe, hopefully, we're doing the right things. But I don't think we can say for definite now.

They have it evaluated it. There is no perfect solution, or a solution that does not have negative effects.

The stark reality is and it's something people are failing to grasp or understand, if emergency care collapses especially in this country never mind the long term effects, the short term effects will be catastrophic.

Wild Field 1831

I'm in my mid 40s and if I was in my mid 20s I'd be of the opinion I was invincible. Really physically fit and strong.

However my worry for people in their 20s would be what this virus could do to them. Lung and heart problems. Chronic Fatigue Syndrome can take years off your life. I've had friends bedridden with it. So many unknowns.

seanb85

LiquidZeb wrote: »

All I'm saying is that bull**** predictions regarding covid have come from both sides. I really couldn't give a **** about Neil Ferguson's sex life other than the hypocrisy of it

Your post highlights a massive problem with discussion on this. It isn't about sides and never has been. This is not a political issue. There is no agenda.

PTH2009

Very worrying

Paddygreen

Boggles wrote: »

They have it evaluated it. There is no perfect solution, or a solution that does not have negative effects.

The stark reality is and it's something people are failing to grasp or understand, if emergency care collapses especially in this country never mind the long term effects, the short term effects will be catastrophic.

I would go so far as to say cataclysmic,

Paddygreen

PTH2009 wrote: »

Very worrying

Absolutely, terrifying.

Wild Field 1831

Boggles wrote: »

They have it evaluated it. There is no perfect solution, or a solution that does not have negative effects.

The stark reality is and it's something people are failing to grasp or understand, if emergency care collapses especially in this country never mind the long term effects, the short term effects will be catastrophic.

I understand. Maybe sometimes our hospital figures are so good it has lulled me into a false sense of security.

And they are so good because of the measures undertaken.

Boggles

Paddygreen wrote: »

I would go so far as to say cataclysmic,

It could very well be.

ACitizenErased

Wild Field 1831 wrote: »

I'm in my mid 40s and if I was in my mid 20s I'd be of the opinion I was invincible. Really physically fit and strong.

However my worry for people in their 20s would be what this virus could do to them. Lung and heart problems. Chronic Fatigue Syndrome can take years off your life. I've had friends bedridden with it. So many unknowns.

If this is the case, and this is a genuine question, why are hospitalisations not moving? Literally no increase despite a 'younger' infected group.

Leftwaffe

Paddygreen is back, I enjoy his posts!

Gruffalux

ACitizenErased wrote: »

But younger people are just as susceptible, apparently?

I don't think so. Certainly the CFR for young people is much lower than for older. They may catch it as easily but it is genuinely less harmful to them overall. From what I have observed.

ACitizenErased

Redordeadqwwer wrote: »

Paddygreen is back, I enjoy his posts!

he just emanates a positive outlook on life

ACitizenErased

Gruffalox wrote: »

I don't think so. Certainly the CFR for young people is much lower than for older. They may catch it as easily but it is genuinely less harmful to them overall. From what I have observed.

So we don't need to worry about hospitals?

Tork

It's them spreading it to their older family members and other vulnerable folk that's the worry.

seanb85

Does anybody know what doctors are prescribing (if anything) to those not in hospital? Corticosteroids or something?

caveat emptor

Ohmeha wrote: »

Despite today's awful number 7 average figure is stable. With cases continuing to rise in Dublin and Kildare and community spread increasing not alot of room for optimism

Day Month Date Cases 7 Day
Sunday July 26th 12 17.43
Monday July 27th 11 18.14
Tuesday July 28th 40 18.71
Wednesday July 29th 14 18.29
Thursday July 30th 85 29.43
Friday July 31st 38 32.00
Saturday August 1st 45 35.00
Sunday August 2nd 53 40.86
Monday August 3rd 46 45.86
Tuesday August 4th 45 46.57
Wednesday August 5th 50 51.71
Thursday August 6th 69 49.43
Friday August 7th 98 58.00
Saturday August 8th 174 76.43
Sunday August 9th 68 78.57
Monday August 10th 57 80.14
Tuesday August 11th 35 78.71
Wednesday August 12th 40 77.29
Thursday August 13th 92 80.57
Friday August 14th 67 76.14
Saturday August 15th 200 79.86

Thanks for sharing.

Why is it that the last two Saturdays have had massive increases?
This is statistically very unlikely if testing and reporting consistent.

Is it because the virus was having a lie in and the early bird test missed it?
Very confusing.

https://twitter.com/DerekTVShow/status/1294677313133654016?s=20