Covid 19 Part XXI-27,908 in ROI (1,777 deaths) 6,647 in NI (559 deaths)(22/08)Read OP

tom1ie

tom1ie wrote: »

Is there official confirmation of this?
How could we know you can’t get it twice?

You realise the only way to prove it can't happen is to intentionally try and reinfect someone who had it?

Let's go with the whole millions of cases and no notable or confirmed reinfections, and at this stage, even if there are some, it's almost certainly a problem with the person's immune system.

Ineedaname

wadacrack wrote: »

Not sure, its becoming more common now that people are becoming infected a 2nd time. Immunity to this virus still very unclear

It's really not. Those are anecdotal stories with no context and no independent verification. As I said before when you look into the rates of false positives it becomes more clear.

As the saying goes extraordinary claims demand extraordinary evidence. So far regarding reinfection there's been nothing close to that.

Longing

I wonder is it possible to code in 2metres distance software into the HSE detection app on your phone. It would be pretty handy for deterring people breathing down your neck at a checkout or anywhere. Even better again voice activated. Phone does all for you.

Pinch Flat

NK76 wrote: »

No I'm prepared to live without fear...and so should you....because there is nothing yo fear apart from the mass hysteria that is filling peoples empty lives....its chaos theory in its purest form

Ebola I would fear....but the common flu I will not

The biggest concern is the spotlight it has cast on the mass populations emotional redundancy and need to connect with this fake fear

Stand up men and women and crack on ...

Is that you gemma?

Oranage2

Longing wrote: »

I wonder is it possible to code in 2metres distance software into the HSE detection app on your phone. It would be pretty handy for deterring people breathing down your neck at a checkout or anywhere. Even better again voice activated. Phone does all for you.

Don't really need an app for that you could just say it yourself

Longing

Oranage2 wrote: »

Don't really need an app for that you could just say it yourself

Yep. Saying it constantly at this stage.

Oranage2

Longing wrote: »

Yep. Saying it constantly at this stage.

Invest in a blowhorn?

Gruffalux

Gruffalox wrote: »

Back of envelope figures now to cheer everyone up...

Fact is we are catching waaaayy more cases than we used to. Not 100% but a lot.

Since end of February we have recorded 27000 cases to round it up.

But antibody suggestions and other guesses say we used to be catching about 10%of cases. Surveys showing 5% antibodies in population of Ireland in or around, or 10 times 27000 already notified are both around the 270,000 mark.

Let's just say 270,000 people have gotten this since March.
March - June - let's say we were getting our sh1t together re testing, and since July we have been finding most of the cases in the country.

March to June is 120 days or so. 270000 divided by 120 is 2200.

So...if we had been having daily reports of true numbers with Covid since March every day we could have been told 2200 people have tested positive and every day we could have run around the house screaming.

200 today, when we are catching most - which I hope we are - is a lot, LOT better than what we have already journeyed through, unknowingly.

I am quoting meself, a disgraceful display, but can anyone go through this and tell me if this is incorrect. I just told my theory to my husband who listened patiently and said okay, and I said so it is correct ? and he said I don't know but please don't start from the beginning again.

So the 2200 daily cases we have come through invisibly since March would have been reported, if testing worked like it does now in an ascending and descending graph that could even have peaked with many thousands ecery day for weeks eg just showing a sample day out of each of the 20 weeks March to end June...to reach 270000 cases..

50, 100, 200, 300, 1000, 2000, 1800, 500, 3500, 1000, 2000, 3000, 4000, 2000, 1000, 500, 300, 400, 200, 100, etc


Any people who are good at maths tell me where or if this is incorrect please?

And if plausible doesn't it make 200 cases when we are picking up most cases A LOT BETTER than what we have come through.

pennydreadful

lee_baby_simms wrote: »

Sure, if it mutates into a new virus.

There’s zero evidence to suggest you can get Covid 19 twice. There’s a ton of evidence to suggest immunity - falling deaths in every location the virus has previous impacted.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53315983

A study of 60,000 Spanish people, a country with one of the highest instances of Covid, suggests that herd immunity is not possible

blade1

Oranage2 wrote: »

Invest in a blowhorn?

Download Air Horn (for Android) https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.ivandigital.airhorn

Oranage2

Gruffalox wrote: »

I am quoting meself, a disgraceful display, but can anyone go through this and tell me if this is incorrect. I just told my theory to my husband who listened patiently and said okay, and I said so it is correct ? and he said I don't know but please don't start from the beginning again.

So the 2200 daily cases we have come through invisibly since March would have been reported, if testing worked like it does now in an ascending and descending graph that could even have peaked with many thousands ecery day for weeks eg just showing a sample day out of each of the 20 weeks March to end June...to reach 270000 cases..

50, 100, 200, 300, 1000, 2000, 1800, 500, 3500, 1000, 2000, 3000, 4000, 2000, 1000, 500, 300, 400, 200, 100, etc


Any people who are good at maths tell me where or if this is incorrect please?

And if plausible doesn't it make 200 cases when we are picking up most cases A LOT BETTER than what we have come through.

How do you know we're picking up most cases? If that were true we'd be seeing reduced numbers, right know we're just testing known clusters and outbreaks and then people that possibly had contact with those. Plus anyone having symptoms.

It takes up to two weeks so we're possibly 2 weeks behind every big cluster and as it's looking these aren't showing any symptoms so nobody is reporting feeling sick until it's too late.

pennydreadful

pennydreadful wrote: »

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53315983

A study of 60,000 Spanish people, a country with one of the highest instances of Covid, suggests that herd immunity is not possible

I'm not a proponent of herd immunity but some research was posted a while back that found the t-cell b-cell immunity in people with no antibodies I believe. The antibodies metric isn't a good indicator.

Psychiatric Patrick

Oranage2 wrote: »

Don't really need an app for that you could just say it yourself

Saying something doesn’t always mean it will get through.

I was at the checkout in Dunnes the other day and the woman had to repeat five or six times to the next in line step back and not put their groceries on the belt. People are also not obeying the two metre rule.

So I can understand the desire for an alarm.

I also saw two guys greet each other by touching elbows. Isn’t that defeating the purpose of not shaking hands?

jackboy

pennydreadful wrote: »

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53315983

A study of 60,000 Spanish people, a country with one of the highest instances of Covid, suggests that herd immunity is not possible

That is based on antibody tests which building evidence suggests are not a good indicator of immunity.

is_that_so

Deleted User wrote: »

I'm not a proponent of herd immunity but some research was posted a while back that found the t-cell b-cell immunity in people with no antibodies I believe. The antibodies metric isn't a good indicator.

It's just used for general mapping of the prevalence of disease not for medical outcomes. It's never going to be hugely accurate anyway. T-cell level testing I believe is a lot more difficult to do. Maybe some of the producers of spurious rapid tests could focus their efforts there.

MickeyLeari

pennydreadful wrote: »

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53315983

A study of 60,000 Spanish people, a country with one of the highest instances of Covid, suggests that herd immunity is not possible

At the moment it seems everyone can find a study to support a point of view.

Psychiatric Patrick

blade1 wrote: »

Download Air Horn (for Android) https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.ivandigital.airhorn

Good suggestion but I would like an app that actually tells people they are violating my personal space.

This isn’t because of Covid. Just something I want.

Prior to smart phones and apps I was hoping someone would develop personal force field projectors.

is_that_so

jackboy wrote: »

That is based on antibody tests which building evidence suggests are not a good indicator of immunity.

There's a general acceptance that the body responding to viruses offers a level of immunity, how long is the question.

xhomelezz

Gruffalox wrote: »

I am quoting meself, a disgraceful display, but can anyone go through this and tell me if this is incorrect. I just told my theory to my husband who listened patiently and said okay, and I said so it is correct ? and he said I don't know but please don't start from the beginning again.

So the 2200 daily cases we have come through invisibly since March would have been reported, if testing worked like it does now in an ascending and descending graph that could even have peaked with many thousands ecery day for weeks eg just showing a sample day out of each of the 20 weeks March to end June...to reach 270000 cases..

50, 100, 200, 300, 1000, 2000, 1800, 500, 3500, 1000, 2000, 3000, 4000, 2000, 1000, 500, 300, 400, 200, 100, etc


Any people who are good at maths tell me where or if this is incorrect please?

And if plausible doesn't it make 200 cases when we are picking up most cases A LOT BETTER than what we have come through.

I don't think testing and contact tracing works here as it should

Psychiatric Patrick

MickeyLeari wrote: »

At the moment it seems everyone can find a study to support a point of view.

For Covid maybe.

Where is the study to show my siblings that they c a not see the obvious?

caveat emptor

Ineedaname wrote: »

It's really not. Those are anecdotal stories with no context and no independent verification. As I said before when you look into the rates of false positives it becomes more clear.

As the saying goes extraordinary claims demand extraordinary evidence. So far regarding reinfection there's been nothing close to that.

My kid went to nursery and got lots of colds. We subsequently got lots of colds. Were one or more of the colds caused by corona viruses ? Probably.
Now when I was a lad I also go loads of colds.

This not possible to reinfected is a pipe dream. Easy to state categorically 6 months after a new pathogen emerges.

I’m all for hypothesises but I wouldn’t recommend going through that to prove a point.
Colds tend to occur on a yearly basis and we have not even had a full cold season with this thing.

The good news is we are about to find out so by December next year we should be able to answer this question at least.

By all means continuing saying ‘evidence’ and ‘impossible’

seamus

Psychiatric Patrick wrote: »

Good suggestion but I would like an app that actually tells people they are violating my personal space.

This isn’t because of Covid. Just something I want.

Prior to smart phones and apps I was hoping someone would develop personal force field projectors.

Your phone doesn't have sensors that can accurately tell you if someone is less than 2m from you.

It would be more frustrating than useful, it would be going off both too often and not enough.

SeaBreezes

Ineedaname wrote: »

It's really not. Those are anecdotal stories with no context and no independent verification. As I said before when you look into the rates of false positives it becomes more clear.

As the saying goes extraordinary claims demand extraordinary evidence. So far regarding reinfection there's been nothing close to that.

No certainity at all there.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (#CDC) backtracked guidance it issued earlier this month, maintaining that people are not immune to reinfection to the coronavirus after recovering from the disease.


https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/512145-cdc-backtracks-guidance-on-three-month-window-of-immunity

jackboy

SeaBreezes wrote: »

No certainity at all there.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (#CDC) backtracked guidance it issued earlier this month, maintaining that people are not immune to reinfection to the coronavirus after recovering from the disease.


https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/512145-cdc-backtracks-guidance-on-three-month-window-of-immunity

It seems like their old advice was based on assessment but their new advice is based on proof (or the lack of proof). There is so much about the virus that is not definitively proven but there is lots of data which we can use for assessments.

Tokyo

Mod: Deleted User, pleas don't post in the thread again.

seamus

SeaBreezes wrote: »

No certainity at all there.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (#CDC) backtracked guidance it issued earlier this month, maintaining that people are not immune to reinfection to the coronavirus after recovering from the disease.


https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/512145-cdc-backtracks-guidance-on-three-month-window-of-immunity

They backtracked because it was confusing and implied absolute immunity in all cases for 3 months.

There is no data at the moment to indicate that reinfection is possible in the general sense.

That's where we are. The data so far indicates that a general immunity exists for 3 months after infection, and possibly more.

Nobody is making any definite statements though because there is still lots more data to gather.

But as of right now, we have zero confirmed reinfections in otherwise healthy individuals.

SeaBreezes

And to add to the good news..

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1293438602941276161

Ineedaname

caveat emptor wrote: »

This not possible to reinfected is a pipe dream. Easy to state categorically 6 months after a new pathogen emerges.

I never said anything about reinfection being impossible. I'd be very surprised if it was. We've just not seen any hard evidence yet to support it.

mloc123

A breakdown of additional cases for some towns in Kildare between June and now (when the geographical dashboard was updated)

Leixlip, Celbridge and Kilcock getting a raw deal in lockdown.

MickeyLeari

mloc123 wrote: »

A breakdown of additional cases for some towns in Kildare between June and now (when the geographical dashboard was updated)

Leixlip, Celbridge and Kilcock getting a raw deal in lockdown.

Indeed. Is Kildare village still open?

Gruffalux

xhomelezz wrote: »

I don't think testing and contact tracing works here as it should

It is not perfect for sure, but it is exponentially better than it was in March and April. There are not the old limits on people going for a test that there were. The turnaround time may not be ideal - I know someone tested recently and the time from test to result was 74 hours.
But I still think we are picking up a lot more now and that figures of positives in March abd April would have been multiples higher if we had todays testing in place.
Could be wrong.

mloc123

MickeyLeari wrote: »

Indeed. Is Kildare village still open?

It is... And I can drive down to it from Celbridge and go shopping, into the heart of darkness... But Liffey valley is off limits.

Gruffalux

A different way of looking at my theory -

Seroprevalence preliminary results in July suggest 5% have had it. It is repeated globally minus hotspots.

(Leave the unproven T cell thing for a minute. Antibodies would at least linger for a few months).

5% of 5 million is 250,000.
One of our highest ever case totals reported was mid April at about 1000. 1013 on 14th April.
We have 27000 cases reported.
Multiply the daily cases reports by 9 to get "true" figures to reflect researched seroprevalence. 27000 x 9 = 234000.
14th April should have read 9000 cases that day.
Etc etc.

Which if we are still doing as badly catching cases would mean yesterday = 1800. But I do not think testing in April is comparable to testing in August.

Don't worry. I am done now explicating my fabulous theory! Damn, it's such a good theory though!

mloc123

Gruffalox wrote: »

A different way of looking at my theory -

Seroprevalence preliminary results in July suggest 5% have had it. It is repeated globally minus hotspots.

(Leave the unproven T cell thing for a minute. Antibodies would at least linger for a few months).

5% of 5 million is 250,000.
One of our highest ever case totals reported was mid April at about 1000. 1013 on 14th April.
We have 27000 cases reported.
Multiply the daily cases reports by 9 to get "true" figures to reflect researched seroprevalence. 27000 x 9 = 234000.
14th April should have read 9000 cases that day.
Etc etc.

Which if we are still doing as badly catching cases would mean yesterday = 1800. But I do not think testing in April is comparable to testing in August.

Don't worry. I am done now explicating my fabulous theory! Damn, it's such a good theory though!

Hospital admission would back this up, can't recall the exact dates but we had days in April where over 100 people a day were being admitted to hospital.

Seamai

mloc123 wrote: »

It is... And I can drive down to it from Celbridge and go shopping, into the heart of darkness... But Liffey valley is off limits.

A question for you, if you did attempt to go to Liffey Valley what are the chances of being turned back by Gardaí?

mloc123

Seamai wrote: »

A question for you, if you did attempt to go to Liffey Valley what are the chances of being turned back by Gardaí?

Zero

billybonkers

https://twitter.com/NoelRock/status/1294764775147266049?s=08

Last night in Dublin

Seamai

mloc123 wrote: »

Zero

Does that not render the notion of a lockdown pretty redundant?

iamwhoiam

Seamai wrote: »

Does that not render the notion of a lockdown pretty redundant?

Why ? it is relaying on people to do the right thing themselves .Just as the national lockdown was .

drunkmonkey

UK Antibodies test results from the first 100,000 in case anyone hasn't seen it.



https://www.gov.uk/government/news/largest-home-antibody-testing-programme-for-covid-19-publishes-findings

Gruffalux

mloc123 wrote: »

Hospital admission would back this up, can't recall the exact dates but we had days in April where over 100 people a day were being admitted to hospital.

I lied. Further explication for those who like T cell theory. Say 20 % have T cells. Then 1,000,000 Irish would have had it. 40 times what is recorded now. So mid April real case numbers would have been 40000! If you hang your hat on T cells.

gmisk

billybonkers wrote: »

https://twitter.com/NoelRock/status/1294764775147266049?s=08

Last night in Dublin

Yep been posted multiple times.
That Berlin place on Dame Street is a kip and it has form for opening late, not limiting numbers etc

Seamai

iamwhoiam wrote: »

Why ? it is relaying on people to do the right thing themselves .Just as the national lockdown was .

So lockdown is just a suggestion and hope for the best? Good luck with that.

Thierry12

Gruffalox wrote: »

A different way of looking at my theory -

Seroprevalence preliminary results in July suggest 5% have had it. It is repeated globally minus hotspots.

(Leave the unproven T cell thing for a minute. Antibodies would at least linger for a few months).

5% of 5 million is 250,000.
One of our highest ever case totals reported was mid April at about 1000. 1013 on 14th April.
We have 27000 cases reported.
Multiply the daily cases reports by 9 to get "true" figures to reflect researched seroprevalence. 27000 x 9 = 234000.
14th April should have read 9000 cases that day.
Etc etc.

Which if we are still doing as badly catching cases would mean yesterday = 1800. But I do not think testing in April is comparable to testing in August.

Don't worry. I am done now explicating my fabulous theory! Damn, it's such a good theory though!

Many don't make antibodies and especially not months after infection

July testing catching April mild infections is very doubtful from what i've read

Experts are saying 2-3 times antibody seroprevalence seems to be somewhat accurate

About 500,000 - 750,000 probably had it here

Also supports the 0.5% IFR

We've had nearly 1800 deaths

That would suggest 360,000 infected a minimum

Tests in Africa are showing IFR 0.08%, it's an extremely mild ilness there

Thierry12

Gruffalox wrote: »

I lied. Further explication for those who like T cell theory. Say 20 % have T cells. Then 1,000,000 Irish would have had it. 40 times what is recorded now. So mid April real case numbers would have been 40000! If you hang your hat on T cells.

Yes that would be more far accurate imo

The O'Brien meat plant had 3 people sick out of 86 infected

It seems to be coming out that virus is rather harmless to most of the population

Trump suggested that in April and was ridiculed for it

Thierry12

drunkmonkey wrote: »

UK Antibodies test results from the first 100,000 in case anyone hasn't seen it.



https://www.gov.uk/government/news/largest-home-antibody-testing-programme-for-covid-19-publishes-findings

When are they gonna put this to an end and do the t spot test?

Drib feeding us info after info

Oxford have it in use for research purposes

Do the bloody trial and give us the truth

ExMachina1000

#supportnotsympathy in rural Ireland as pubs beg to be let open and manage customers responsibly and within government guidelines.
Multi generational pubs financially struggling

Meanwhile in Berlin bar Dublin

https://twitter.com/antoon619/status/1294704669722370049?s=20

MickeyLeari

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

#supportnotsympathy in rural Ireland as pubs beg to be let open and manage customers responsibly and within government guidelines.
Multi generational pubs financially struggling

Meanwhile in Berlin bar Dublin

https://twitter.com/antoon619/status/1294704669722370049?s=20

They just need to close down that pub and any others who take the p1ss.

mountgomery burns

And if you think that's bad, wait until colleges return. The "guidelines" are for students to not enter someone else's accomodation.

Yeah, best of luck with that.

MickeyLeari

mountgomery burns wrote: »

And if you think that's bad, wait until colleges return. The "guidelines" are for students to not enter someone else's accomodation.

Yeah, best of luck with that.

They are recruiting the ladies (Bean an tí) from the Gaeltacht Irish course to enforce it.