Covid 19 Part XXI-27,908 in ROI (1,777 deaths) 6,647 in NI (559 deaths)(22/08)Read OP

Boggles

Gruffalox wrote: »

A different way of looking at my theory -

Seroprevalence preliminary results in July suggest 5% have had it. It is repeated globally minus hotspots.

(Leave the unproven T cell thing for a minute. Antibodies would at least linger for a few months).

5% of 5 million is 250,000.
One of our highest ever case totals reported was mid April at about 1000. 1013 on 14th April.
We have 27000 cases reported.
Multiply the daily cases reports by 9 to get "true" figures to reflect researched seroprevalence. 27000 x 9 = 234000.
14th April should have read 9000 cases that day.
Etc etc.

Which if we are still doing as badly catching cases would mean yesterday = 1800. But I do not think testing in April is comparable to testing in August.

Don't worry. I am done now explicating my fabulous theory! Damn, it's such a good theory though!

27,000 is too high.

8,000+ of those are health care workers, the vast majority of which were infected in work, I also imagine they went on to infect family members.

You would then have to further adjust the figure to capture mass outbreaks in enclosed areas.

Probably a more accurate measure would be community transmission, roughly 9000.

9000 x 9 = 81,000 +70,000 (to be generous).

150,000 odd infections.

My personal opinion, we escaped with a very "mild" first instance of the pandemic.

timsey tiger

fritzelly wrote: »

I don't get it - he has been travelling more in the past month than LV did over the past 6 months

Some optics there for a useless Taoiseach

I was really disappointed with that elbow touching (2m my hole), not a mask insight. WTF is he trying to be Trump or something. Get with the program FS.

I know that he prob. can't get it off Boris, but modeling behavour is important. They made the bord failte guy resign.

igCorcaigh

Thierry12 wrote: »

It seems to be coming out that virus is rather harmless to most of the population

That was always known. The concern was and still is the problems caused by the minority of the population all getting sick at once.

Akrasia

ACitizenErased wrote: »

New study regarding the transmission from children to other members of household.
It finds that the likelihood of transmission from a child to another household member is 1 in 200, or 0.5%.
https://adc.bmj.com/content/early/2020/08/06/archdischild-2020-319910

“ Conclusion The SAR from children to household members was low in the setting of social distancing”

This is a very important part of this study. If the child is identified as having Covid early and isolated from the rest of the family then the SAR transmission is low. This is not how the typical family will be handling a young child getting diagnosed with Covid or being a close contact of a confirmed case.

mountgomery burns

Boggles wrote: »

27,000 is too high.

8,000+ of those are health care workers, the vast majority of which were infected in work, I also imagine they went on to infect family members.

You would then have to further adjust the figure to capture mass outbreaks in enclosed areas.

Probably a more accurate measure would be community transmission, roughly 9000.

9000 x 9 = 81,000 +70,000 (to be generous).

150,000 odd infections.

My personal opinion, we escaped with a very "mild" first instance of the pandemic.

The reality is nobody has any idea to what degree the current cases under report the scale of infection.

But three things suggest it is much lower:

1) Strain on resources during peak
2) Much lower testing during peak
3) Strict criteria for testing (priority for healthcare workers, nursing homes, have to display two symptoms when a huge quantity of infections are asymptomatic)

We're only speculation on numbers after that.

caveat emptor

Sums up the way people use data here.
I'm always wary of people who draw conclusions with incomplete data.
All people tend to join the dots to suit their world view.
This particular problem will take some time before dots can be joined in a concrete way.

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1294839150177390592?s=20

Loads of people don't care and its a big issue

Neighbour of mine who works in a pharma as an operator has his daughter home from the states, she flew into the North and rented a car. No isolating at all. Funny thing is he lives next to a nurse who socialises with them.

My take is,she could have infected the father, his partner and the nurse who could have brought it into the hospital, the father and his partner in the pharma company taking down the whole line and in turn affecting all their fellow employees salary and immediate family.

Some people are sickeningly selfish and this pandemic has exposed it all in my opinion

Renjit

Akrasia wrote: »

“ Conclusion The SAR from children to household members was low in the setting of social distancing”

This is a very important part of this study. If the child is identified as having Covid early and isolated from the rest of the family then the SAR transmission is low. This is not how the typical family will be handling a young child getting diagnosed with Covid or being a close contact of a confirmed case.

I know a kid and mother both caught covid.

Drumpot

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mT-zWFnfhYI

Some interesting snippets.

CDC and major tv outlets numbers appear to differ slightly. CDC numbers appear to be consistently lower. (Anything to do with WH taking over recording of info?).

Concerns from USA teachers that poor ventilation will make schools more dangerous for spread. Many teachers would prefer a phased reopening.

Croatia - brilliant record of a bunch of cases that suggests 2/3rd of cases from pubs/nightclubs that opened until after midnight (basically sloppy drunks more likely to catch and spread it), so bars closed at midnight now.

Spain - smoking banned a lot more places as possible that virus hangs in smoke in air. Banned drinking in street. Ordered nightlife bars to shut

European figures appear to show second wave (or surge in numbers) with consistant rises for number of days. Average age of people infected appears to be circa 30 (I’m averaging out multiple data used).

Better news as we are seeing is less severe cases across the board.

Deaths in uk only recording as Covid it happens within 28 days of test. France, Malta and Netherlands added to quarantine listed countries so massive rush for uk people on holidays to get home. This should be another warning to anybody planning to go abroad anytime soon.

Dr john makes a good point, people rushing back to beat the quarantine rule could cause more issues If infected. He asks what’s the point in doing this if a person who gets back at 2pm was in the same place as a person who gets Back at 5pm the same day but missed the quarantine deadline. Says it’s similar to what happened early on in wuhan when people quickly fled as restrictions were imposed. This explains why governments give so little notice , to stop people rushing around to avoid restrictions.

England - 6.2% tested positive for antibodies (office of national statistics)

Africa - why such low numbers? From min 39 of video. He discussed it other day but got feedback from people who watch videos. Neanderthal gene, exposure to bugs/animals, gastro worms, high plant diet (prebiotics, microbiome), bad diet, various common taken drugs, obesity and physical fitness

Debunks myths that temperature taking machines emit radiation

All information he discusses have links to the sources

I Always find it fascinating to see what other countries are doing and why. Also surely it’s in our interest to understand why some African countries are so far getting quite Low numbers. This fascination with a vaccine seems to mean as we missing other avenues to reduce the impact of the virus that could lead to a quicker return to normalcy.

I watched another video on medcram about cheap one dollar tests that would be a much quicker way to manage things right now. But most resources are focused on vaccines.

JJJackal

Thierry12 wrote: »

Yes that would be more far accurate imo

The O'Brien meat plant had 3 people sick out of 86 infected

It seems to be coming out that virus is rather harmless to most of the population

Trump suggested that in April and was ridiculed for it

I suggest the 160,000 plus people who have died in the US would disagree with President Trump

Seamai

JJJackal wrote: »

I suggest the 160,000 plus people who have died in the US would disagree with President Trump

You can ad another 12,000+ to that figure.

Boggles

Thierry12 wrote: »

Yes that would be more far accurate imo

The O'Brien meat plant had 3 people sick out of 86 infected

It seems to be coming out that virus is rather harmless to most of the population

Trump suggested that in April and was ridiculed for it

The O'Brien meat plant "story" was written by a PR company and handed to a friendly journalist.

I wouldn't believe a word of it.

Atlantic Dawn

RTE now covering Berlin D2 Bar...
https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0816/1159457-dublin-bar/

drunkmonkey

Drumpot wrote: »

[
Spain - smoking banned a lot more places as possible that virus hangs in smoke in air. Banned drinking in street. Ordered nightlife bars to shut

Not agreeing with this as all, you've way less chance of catching covid from a smoker than a non smoker as they have way less chance of catching it in the first place. Agree if there is smoke in the air and someone adds some covid to it and you walk into it you may get some droplets but your getting them everywhere especially your eyes, compulsory goggles aren't far away.
As for people having to drink indoors instead of outdoors, it makes no sense. We should have opened pubs with outdoor areas not ones with €9 pizza.

Renjit

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

RTE now covering Berlin D2 Bar...
https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0816/1159457-dublin-bar/

Tipsy and covid is not a great combination. I am sure there are enough who will fight for their right to get drunk in bars :pac:

pjohnson

I'd say that "barman" will struggle for employment unless theres a new Coyote Ugly movie in the works.

drunkmonkey

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

RTE now covering Berlin D2 Bar...
https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0816/1159457-dublin-bar/

The Key word is guidance, there's no law against having a good time, we have to stop with all these knee jerk reactions and outrage. The youth should be out enjoying themselves and working on our pensions.
We either go full on NZ or just get on with things. Anyone with half a brain can see or guidelines are made up nonsense, can't get a liter or milk without a mask but pints and food covid will leave you alone for as long as the barman decides.

blacklilly

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

RTE now covering Berlin D2 Bar...
https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0816/1159457-dublin-bar/

There is only one way to deal with this. The operators of the pub need to be up in court this week and face the maximum fine.
Absolutely sickening to see this.

Renjit

pjohnson wrote: »

I'd say that "barman" will struggle for employment unless theres a new Coyote Ugly movie in the works.

Barman can sit on PUP and throw the same antics at home or within his friend circle

hotmail.com

RTE leading with Berlin Bar story. It's curtains now for it.

Drumpot

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Not agreeing with this as all, you've way less chance of catching covid from a smoker than a non smoker as they have way less chance of catching it in the first place. Agree if there is smoke in the air and someone adds some covid to it and you walk into it you may get some droplets but your getting them everywhere especially your eyes, compulsory goggles aren't far away.
As for people having to drink indoors instead of outdoors, it makes no sense. We should have opened pubs with outdoor areas not ones with €9 pizza.

What’s the difference? If a smoker exhaling smoke can lead to droplets hanging in air because of the smoke, then the smoker is potentially infecting others indirectly.

I believe That was people drinking on the streets, I don’t think it was necessarily people drinking outdoors.

The bottom line is that drinking and catching/spreading virus appears to be a risk factor. It’s obvious why this is the case , people get sloppy and messy after a few drinks and do things they might not do sober. This is calling a spade a spade but we have to tip toe around this fact because people like to drink and they try to bury this fact in waffle. There’s nothing wrong with drinking and having fun, but right now this is a time when doing these things do not help slow down the spread.

Thierry12

JJJackal wrote: »

I suggest the 160,000 plus people who have died in the US would disagree with President Trump

In a country with nearly 400,000,000

Perspective like

0.04% death

99.96% US still alive

We have 1800 deaths out of 5,000,000 here

Guess what 0.04% death here too

We are doing a great job

Doctor Jimbob

blacklilly wrote: »

There is only one way to deal with this. The operators of the pub need to be up in court this week and face the maximum fine.
Absolutely sickening to see this.

What about the operators of the meat factories that are actually linked to outbreaks that caused a lockdown in 3 counties?

Don't get me wrong, what happened in that pub was ridiculous and should be condemned, but there's no point coming down like a ton of bricks on them while we continue to ignore what's going on in those factores.

Renjit

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

What about the operators of the meat factories that are actually linked to outbreaks that caused a lockdown in 3 counties?

Don't get me wrong, what happened in that pub was ridiculous and should be condemned, but there's no point coming down like a ton of bricks on them while we continue to ignore what's going on in those factores.

They should take strict action but are you ok with these two comparisons? One is putting meat on your dinner table and other is a "just of fun" activity.

Onesea

Berlin bar looked like fun. Not alot of fear being displayed.

road_high

Onesea wrote: »

Berlin bar looked like fun. Not alot of fear being displayed.

Many just aren’t scared anymore. Bound to happen (not judging these people either way).

drunkmonkey

Onesea wrote: »

Berlin bar looked like fun. Not alot of fear being displayed.

and in fairness to the owners it was less crowded than Kilkee and better controlled. It might not look great but it's better than the alternative.

road_high

drunkmonkey wrote: »

and in fairness to the owners it was less crowded than Kilkee and better controlled. It might not look great but it's better than the alternative.

Would be going on at house parties either way...

OscarMIlde

Ineedaname wrote: »

Sounds like the first test could have been a false positive.

You don't get false positives with a PCR test unless you contaminate it with another positive sample. This test is highly specific.

Steve F

My two cents on the Zero Covid debate.
People saying it's isn't possible....using NZ as an example.The reason they couldn't maintain the zero status was because the rest of the world didn't toe the line also.
The WHO said early on that we could defeat this virus if THE WHOLE WORLD PULLED TOGETHER AS ONE.

The opportunity to achieve that has now long gone.
Most of the world population couldn't see the bigger picture....short term pain long term gain.

The choices made in February,March by most countries sealed our fate.
The virus will be with us forever now in some shape or form.
The attitude by most was "Ah sure this will all blow over in a few weeks"

schmoo2k

seamus wrote: »

Your phone doesn't have sensors that can accurately tell you if someone is less than 2m from you.

It would be more frustrating than useful, it would be going off both too often and not enough.

What you need is a really big sombrero!

s1ippy

We get it onesie and drunkmonkey you're tired of the lockdown, you spend thread after thread making up crap to indicate your frustration.

You're only taking the p!ss with those justifications though and you're codding nobody. You know that behaviour is unsafe and you're just looking for attention by saying it's fine, for some sad reason.

ExMachina1000

s1ippy wrote: »

We get it onesie and drunkmonkey you're tired of the lockdown, you spend thread after thread making up crap to indicate your frustration.

You're only taking the p!ss with those justifications though and you're codding nobody. You know that behaviour is unsafe and you're just looking for attention by saying it's fine, for some sad reason.

They are entitled to their opinions and thoughts though are they not?

Steve F

Onesea wrote: »

Berlin bar looked like fun. Not alot of fear being displayed.

Ignorance is bliss

Loafing Oaf

schmoo2k wrote: »

What you need is a really big sombrero!

Just make sure BoJo isn't around to squash it...

drunkmonkey

Steve F wrote: »

My two cents on the Zero Covid debate.
People saying it's isn't possible....using NZ as an example.The reason they couldn't maintain the zero status was because the rest of the world didn't toe the line also.
The WHO said early on that we could defeat this virus if THE WHOLE WORLD PULLED TOGETHER AS ONE.

The opportunity to achieve that has now long gone.
Most of the world population couldn't see the bigger picture....short term pain long term gain.

The choices made in February,March by most countries sealed our fate.
The virus will be with us forever now in some shape or form.
The attitude by most was "Ah sure this will all blow over in a few weeks"

It can still be done but it requires a global lockdown as regards to travel. The only green list are countrys with 0 for 30 days. The essential worker thing has as to be rethought, if your essential you need to be back in the country/country your needed in before the lockdown. That applies to everyone with no exceptions.

MD1990

Steve F wrote: »

My two cents on the Zero Covid debate.
People saying it's isn't possible....using NZ as an example.The reason they couldn't maintain the zero status was because the rest of the world didn't toe the line also.
The WHO said early on that we could defeat this virus if THE WHOLE WORLD PULLED TOGETHER AS ONE.

The opportunity to achieve that has now long gone.
Most of the world population couldn't see the bigger picture....short term pain long term gain.

The choices made in February,March by most countries sealed our fate.
The virus will be with us forever now in some shape or form.
The attitude by most was "Ah sure this will all blow over in a few weeks"

they also advised to allow International traffic,
They have let the whole world down.

Supose to be exoerts but we had Youtubers who knew how serious it was.

The Unbearables

Onesea wrote: »

Berlin bar looked like fun. Not alot of fear being displayed.

They are absolute wank8ers

Onesea

s1ippy wrote: »

We get it onesie and drunkmonkey you're tired of the lockdown, you spend thread after thread making up crap to indicate your frustration.

You're only taking the p!ss with those justifications though and you're codding nobody. You know that behaviour is unsafe and you're just looking for attention by saying it's fine, for some sad reason.

The kids ain't worried. It's like an organic response to the fear. After a few months people quickly realise life is for living. And in truth can you blame them.

Boggles

Ireland's 14-day Covid-19 rate jumps to 22.1 per 100,000 people

We breached the 20 mark, tomorrow will be interesting.

Renjit

Onesea wrote: »

The kids ain't worried. It's like an organic response to the fear. After a few months people quickly realise life is for living. And in truth can you blame them.

The same argument can be used for juvenile crimes. Just for fun, you cant blame them :pac:

road_high

drunkmonkey wrote: »

It can still be done but it requires a global lockdown as regards to travel. The only green list are countrys with 0 for 30 days. The essential worker thing has as to be rethought, if your essential you need to be back in the country/country your needed in before the lockdown. That applies to everyone with no exceptions.

I wouldnt have a problem with this. And would probably beat the flapping about we’ve been doing for the past 6 months not achieving very much. But the whole world would have to do it.

schmoo2k

SeaBreezes wrote: »

And to add to the good news..

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1293438602941276161

Technically you can get chicken pox more than once as well - but it's really unusual - I suspect the same will be true of Covid.

Tork

Look everybody is sick of Covid-19, lockdowns, facemasks, hand sanitizer, social distancing, not being able to go the pub etc. That's a given. What's infuriating is that there are people out there who are behaving like shïtheads and prolonging the misery for us all. I'm sure anybody looking at that footage from the bar in LOK is especially pissed off today. I see words like fear and hysteria being thrown out there. I'd prefer to see words like respect and sensible instead. If people did what they were asked to do, we wouldn't be starting to see the trends we are. Sweden took a lot of flack for its approach to the virus. Perhaps we should be taking a leaf from their book. They kept their bars open etc. and their government trusted them not to behave like shïtheads. Apart from care homes where they majorly fcked up, they're doing alright now. We're not capable of that, it would appear.

Onesea

Renjit wrote: »

The same argument can be used for juvenile crimes. Just for fun, you cant blame them :pac:

Lots of things we can link the argument to. There option of staying locked down until a vaccine happens isn't going to happen. So we get back to normal and beef up the health service. That what's happening.

Thierry12

The Unbearables wrote: »

They are absolute wank8ers

They are kids

It's been happening in house parties all year

Jim_Hodge

Thierry12 wrote: »

They are kids

It's been happening in house parties all year

They're not kids. They're adults and acting like sh1theads.

Oranage2

Boggles wrote: »

We breached the 20 mark, tomorrow will be interesting.

We really need some confidence from our government.

Do they think these numbers are okay? Are they happy enough to open the country more if the hospitalizations remain low? Will these numbers affect the schools opening? How are the managing the clusters?

This silence is making MM look cowardly, we really need strong leadership now but his wait and pray approach is really putting people on edge myself included.

1641

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

What about the operators of the meat factories that are actually linked to outbreaks that caused a lockdown in 3 counties?

Don't get me wrong, what happened in that pub was ridiculous and should be condemned, but there's no point coming down like a ton of bricks on them while we continue to ignore what's going on in those factores.

I don't know about the other factories, but have you read up on the Brady meats one ? What exactly is the issue ?
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/coronavirus/inside-the-o-brien-fine-foods-factory-in-lockdown-kildare-1.4330267

Piehead

Boggles wrote: »

We breached the 20 mark, tomorrow will be interesting.

Restaurants will be closed again due to the outrageous scenes today.