Covid 19 Part XXI-27,908 in ROI (1,777 deaths) 6,647 in NI (559 deaths)(22/08)Read OP

Limpy

Turn off the news lads and get on with your lives.

What Username Guidelines

Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »

Deaths have dropped of a cliff since May. I think we need to start focusing on deaths and ICU admissions now. That is that battle ground and we are winning there big time.

Couldn’t agree more. Anyone got deaths in the last 2-3 months graphed? They’re so low they’re difficult to see on worldometers. I know they show deaths by date of death charts when Nolan does an update, but can’t find it available online.

Atlantic Dawn

Limpy wrote: »

Turn off the news lads and get on with your lives.

Not much to get on with when all the got stuff is locked up or banned

Marty Bird

Oranage2 wrote: »

66 cases I'll be able to sleep somewhat sounder. Crazy to think only two weeks ago 66 was a high number, nowadays double digits seems to be a good number.

Don’t dwell on the numbers take some time out and do what you can to keep you and yours safe is all you can do. It’s not good to keep watching the numbers if it’s affecting you sleep

GeorgeBailey

So presumably Laois and Offaly will have their restrictions lifted but Kildare maybe not?

Jim Root

Renjit wrote: »

Compare that to mortality rate earlier? People live long enough that they get cancer now. Mental issues and depression were earlier too but may be overshadowed by other miseries of life which we take for granted now.

Go to any third world country and you will see what I am talking about. No one cares about mental health because other issues are more aggravating.



How is the social security and benefit situation now compared to earlier?


This looks more like first world problem.


Compare that to the time when education was for elites and not everyone had free education.

Nicely demolished that naive post without resorting to childish insults, excellent.

Oranage2

Limpy wrote: »

Turn off the news lads and get on with your lives.

The news is my life man.

ACitizenErased

Analysis of cases as of midnight Friday 14th August - 27,191 cases (+200)

Healthcare Workers +11
Clusters +10
Cases associated with clusters +33

Age Range Affected
0-4 +5
5-14 +17
15-24 +33
25-34 +46
35-44 +35
45-54 +29
55-64 +19
65-74 +12
75-84 +2
85+ +2

Cases by County
Carlow +4
Clare +2
Cork +3
Donegal +2
Dublin +56
Galway +6
Kildare +81
Kilkenny +10
Laois +6
Limerick +8
Louth +1
Mayo +1
Meath +5
Offaly +4
Roscommon +1
Tipperary +13
Waterford +1
Wicklow +1

Non solum non ambulabit

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

Control in nursing homes was the key.

Yes indeed.

Deaths and ICU admissions are dropping all over Europe. The data is very convincing that something is happening. I don't know what it is but a few months after the virus hits an area the pattern is the same. High deaths, high ICU admissions then a tapering off.

I certainly can't explain it but it is interesting.

Humberto Salazar

ACitizenErased wrote: »

3 community transmission

The real important figure. A bit high yesterday. More realistic today. Keep it like that, we'll be back open in a few weeks.

FintanMcluskey

Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »

Yes indeed.

Deaths and ICU admissions are dropping all over Europe. The data is very convincing that something is happening. I don't know what it is but a few months after the virus hits an area the pattern is the same. High deaths, high ICU admissions then a tapering off.

I certainly can't explain it but it is interesting.

Im convinced there is something in that theory.

The death rate also correlates to the population of citizens over 65, the death rate per 100k population is a poor indicator of how a country has protected its vulnerable

Jim_Hodge

Humberto Salazar wrote: »

The real important figure. A bit high yesterday. More realistic today. Keep it like that, we'll be back open in a few weeks.

I'd like to see the 53 under investigation (and 107 yesterday) explained before I relaxed about community transmission.

podgeandrodge

Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »

Deaths have dropped of a cliff since May. I think we need to start focusing on deaths and ICU admissions now. That is the battle ground and we are winning there big time.

Humberto Salazar wrote: »

The real important figure. A bit high yesterday. More realistic today. Keep it like that, we'll be back open in a few weeks.

So what is Govt. goal now? Is it still 'flatten the curve' (aren't we reasonably flat?) Or is it practical elimination strategy?

Originally we were told the goal was not to overwhelm the health services, and the original phases I understood to be in keeping with that ie that there was an acceptance that we'd live with a few cases once we had it under control.

But now we're keeping things closed even those that didn't contribute to case problems. Like we are afraid of cases going up, rather than managing that situation as and if/when it occurs.

Turtwig

Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »

Yes indeed.

Deaths and ICU admissions are dropping all over Europe. The data is very convincing that something is happening. I don't know what it is but a few months after the virus hits an area the pattern is the same. High deaths, high ICU admissions then a tapering off.

I certainly can't explain it but it is interesting.

This nonsense of mystery about deaths and hospitalisation was doing the rounds in Florida several weeks back. Please don't import this horsesh1t to Ireland. Cases rises, then hospitalisation rises, then deaths rise. They don't occur at the same time and if you keep cases low and infective doses low then you'll keep the hospital figures low as well. If cases spike significantly more serious cases of COVID will spike.

The Unbearables

Horrible numbers yet again.

0gac3yjefb5sv7

The Unbearables wrote: »

Horrible numbers yet again.

Great numbers! What are you hoping for?

Benimar

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

I'd like to see the 53 under investigation (and 107 yesterday) explained before I relaxed about community transmission.

Same. Basically only 15 of the 66 have been explained so far, with 20% of those being community transmission.

It’s the lowest ‘explained’ percentage (22.7%) of daily cases I can remember.

is_that_so

podgeandrodge wrote: »

So what is Govt. goal now? Is it still 'flatten the curve' (aren't we reasonably flat?) Or is it practical elimination strategy?

Originally we were told the goal was not to overwhelm the health services, and the original phases I understood to be in keeping with that ie that there was an acceptance that we'd live with a few cases once we had it under control.

But now we're keeping things closed even those that didn't contribute to case problems. Like we are afraid of cases going up, rather than managing that situation as and if/when it occurs.

As I said elsewhere I reckon that number is 10-20 a day, with clusters largely under control.

normanoffside

MattS1 wrote: »

Great numbers! What are you hoping for?

Number or numbers?
Is zero deaths not a good number?

GooglePlus

Humberto Salazar wrote: »

The real important figure. A bit high yesterday. More realistic today. Keep it like that, we'll be back open in a few weeks.

25 CT yesterday, so don't get too excited about the low number today. That's 28 results over the weekend confirmed as community transmission or 28 people who we can't trace back to a known outbreak.

How the numbers play out over the next week or two will shed light on the effectiveness of the current measures that have been put in place.

wadacrack

Turtwig wrote: »

This nonsense of mystery about deaths and hospitalisation was doing the rounds in Florida several weeks back. Please don't import this horsesh1t to Ireland. Cases rises, then hospitalisation rises, then deaths rise. They don't occur at the same time and if you keep cases low and infective doses low then you'll keep the hospital figures low as well. If cases spike significantly more serious cases of COVID will spike.

Hospitalizations now beginning to increase in France.People need to stop believing unfounded theories

niallo27

Rte have outdone themselves now "Coronavirus will be with us 'for all eternity' - expert"

http://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0816/1159506-coronavirus-experts-this-week/

froog

Turtwig wrote: »

This nonsense of mystery about deaths and hospitalisation was doing the rounds in Florida several weeks back. Please don't import this horsesh1t to Ireland. Cases rises, then hospitalisation rises, then deaths rise. They don't occur at the same time and if you keep cases low and infective doses low then you'll keep the hospital figures low as well. If cases spike significantly more serious cases of COVID will spike.

can't believe how people seem to have forgotten the lag between cases and deaths.

GooglePlus

niallo27 wrote: »

Rte have outdone themselves now "Coronavirus will be with us 'for all eternity' - expert"

http://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0816/1159506-coronavirus-experts-this-week/

Our sun won't even be with us that long.

Atlantic Dawn

Turtwig wrote: »

This nonsense of mystery about deaths and hospitalisation was doing the rounds in Florida several weeks back. Please don't import this horsesh1t to Ireland. Cases rises, then hospitalisation rises, then deaths rise. They don't occur at the same time and if you keep cases low and infective doses low then you'll keep the hospital figures low as well. If cases spike significantly more serious cases of COVID will spike.

US has an obesity issue.

0gac3yjefb5sv7

normanoffside wrote: »

Number or numbers?
Is zero deaths not a good number?

Be glad it's not 500 today after 200 yesterday.

niallo27

The Unbearables wrote: »

Horrible numbers yet again.

200 down to 66 and Zero deaths, hardly horrible.

spookwoman

froog wrote: »

can't believe how people seem to have forgotten the lag between cases and deaths.

Yep, can take weeks to succumb and some cases months

Gael23

I don’t like the way the CMO is talking

igCorcaigh

Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »

Yes indeed.

Deaths and ICU admissions are dropping all over Europe. The data is very convincing that something is happening. I don't know what it is but a few months after the virus hits an area the pattern is the same. High deaths, high ICU admissions then a tapering off.

I certainly can't explain it but it is interesting.

It is interesting.

If I might hazard a guess, I might say that as lockdowns are lifting, the virus is spreading in the general population, mostly younger people, and we know how it takes quite some time for background spread to translate into hospital cases. Weeks to months.

ACitizenErased

Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »

Yes indeed.

Deaths and ICU admissions are dropping all over Europe. The data is very convincing that something is happening. I don't know what it is but a few months after the virus hits an area the pattern is the same. High deaths, high ICU admissions then a tapering off.

I certainly can't explain it but it is interesting.

The lack of hospital admission is quite surprising tbh.


Here is the amount of cases in the last two weeks, plus the hospitalisation rate per HPSC data, and the expected number of hospitalisations.

0-4 - +42 - HR of 10.21% gives expected admissions of 4 people
5-14 - +74 - HR of 4.33% gives expected admissions of 3 people
15-24 - +200 - HR of 3.69% gives expected admissions of 7 people
25-34 - +263 - HR of 4.37% gives expected admissions of 11 people
35-44 - +199 - HR of 5.82% gives expected admissions of 12 people
45-54 - +158 - HR of 9.49% gives expected admissions of 15 people
55-64 - +83 - HR of 14.97% gives expected admissions of 12 people
65-74 - +42 - HR of 31.85% gives expected admissions of 13 people
75-84 - +14 - HR of 32.43% gives expected admissions of 5 people
85+ - +7 - HR of 20.09% gives expected admissions of 1 person


Total expected admissions: 83 people in last two weeks.
Actual admissions: +26

Atlantic Dawn

niallo27 wrote: »

Rte have outdone themselves now "Coronavirus will be with us 'for all eternity' - expert"

http://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0816/1159506-coronavirus-experts-this-week/

Could give an air of Mad Max to the world when the money runs out and people have to join gangs to survive.

hotmail.com

Consideration for new measures is to be taken this week.

s1ippy

Humberto Salazar wrote: »

The real important figure. A bit high yesterday. More realistic today. Keep it like that, we'll be back open in a few weeks.

That's of what they know so far, many more under investigation.

ACitizenErased

Gael23 wrote: »

I don’t like the way the CMO is talking

He's responding to that bar on Dame Lane.

Stheno

hotmail.com wrote: »

Consideration for new measures is to be taken this week.

Where did you see that?

CalamariFritti

Turtwig wrote: »

This nonsense of mystery about deaths and hospitalisation was doing the rounds in Florida several weeks back. Please don't import this horsesh1t to Ireland. Cases rises, then hospitalisation rises, then deaths rise. They don't occur at the same time and if you keep cases low and infective doses low then you'll keep the hospital figures low as well. If cases spike significantly more serious cases of COVID will spike.

So far the graphs on worldometer simply don't support that. Yes some will still need to be hospitalised and sadly some still will die but that linearity that you you're describing just doesn't seem to be there anymore.

Look at Spain just as example, many more. And its not just a week or two. Cases started rising 6 weeks ago.





Edit: Just watching 6news. Dr Glynn just called it out. 1100 cases in the last two weeks. Didnt mention that we're still only having a dozen in hospital.

hotmail.com

Why does RTE just compare our 14 day figure with the UK, a vastly larger country than ours.

hotmail.com

Stheno wrote: »

Where did you see that?

RTE News.

is_that_so

hotmail.com wrote: »

Consideration for new measures is to be taken this week.

That's just NHPET talk for we're having a meeting. It's still about the schools.

hotmail.com

is_that_so wrote: »

That's just NHPET talk for we're having a meeting. It's still about the schools.

Pubs and restaurants will be listening closely. It seems almost certain that non food pubs won't be reopening any time soon.

spookwoman

Stheno wrote: »

Where did you see that?

From Gov.ie

Dr Ronan Glynn, Acting Chief Medical Officer, Department of Health, said; Dr Ronan Glynn, Acting Chief Medical Officer, Department of Health, said; “NPHET will meet tomorrow to review and discuss the case figures that have been reported in recent days and will make any necessary recommendations to Government which are required to protect the vulnerable, continue with the resumption of healthcare services and ensure the safe reopening of our schools.”

“The phased reopening of the country has afforded people the opportunity to socialise with each other again. However, some are doing this recklessly and undermining the efforts of the majority of people around the country who are following public health advice. This cannot continue. This pandemic isn’t over just because we are tired of living with it.”

“We must all learn to behave and interact in a new way over the coming months so that COVID-19 cannot take root again in our communities. Please avoid crowds, reduce your social contacts, keep your distance from others, wash your hands and wear face coverings.”

GooglePlus

hotmail.com wrote: »

Why does RTE just compare our 14 day figure with the UK, a vastly larger country than ours.

Per capita.

growleaves

GooglePlus wrote: »

Our sun won't even be with us that long.

After the heat death of the universe and all other things have ceased there will still be covid.

Gruffalux

ACitizenErased wrote: »

The lack of hospital admission is quite surprising tbh.


Here is the amount of cases in the last two weeks, plus the hospitalisation rate per HPSC data, and the expected number of hospitalisations.

0-4 - +42 - HR of 10.21% gives expected admissions of 4 people
5-14 - +74 - HR of 4.33% gives expected admissions of 3 people
15-24 - +200 - HR of 3.69% gives expected admissions of 7 people
25-34 - +263 - HR of 4.37% gives expected admissions of 11 people
35-44 - +199 - HR of 5.82% gives expected admissions of 12 people
45-54 - +158 - HR of 9.49% gives expected admissions of 15 people
55-64 - +83 - HR of 14.97% gives expected admissions of 12 people
65-74 - +42 - HR of 31.85% gives expected admissions of 13 people
75-84 - +14 - HR of 32.43% gives expected admissions of 5 people
85+ - +7 - HR of 20.09% gives expected admissions of 1 person


Total expected admissions: 83 people in last two weeks.
Actual admissions: +26

This is a good way to analyse the numbers. I suggest apply the percentages to cases reported from 4 weeks ago.

ACitizenErased

DevilsHaircut wrote: »

You're confusing the percentages.

10.21% means that 10.21% of hospitalised cases were aged 0-4.

Not that 10.21% of 0-4-year-old cases were hospitalised.

Nope, I haven't. 24/235 0-4 hospitalised per HPSC up to 12th August gives 10.21%.

hotmail.com

GooglePlus wrote: »

Per capita.

I understand that, but it seems a bit weird to just compare ourselves with the UK, a vastly different country to ours with 4 component nations.

Can RTE not get into the habit of comparing us with comparable sized countries like Slovakia.

GooglePlus

hotmail.com wrote: »

I understand that, but it seems a bit weird to just compare ourselves with the UK, a vastly different country to ours with 4 component nations.

Can RTE not get into the habit of comparing us with comparable sized countries like Slovakia.

We're a much closer relation socially speaking, so I guess it's to compare how both societies are doing as they're so alike.

Non solum non ambulabit

Turtwig wrote: »

This nonsense of mystery about deaths and hospitalisation was doing the rounds in Florida several weeks back. Please don't import this horsesh1t to Ireland. Cases rises, then hospitalisation rises, then deaths rise. They don't occur at the same time and if you keep cases low and infective doses low then you'll keep the hospital figures low as well. If cases spike significantly more serious cases of COVID will spike.

Import what? Data based on actual ICU admissions and deaths across Europe.

Benimar

Ronan Glynn asked on RTÉ News if schools will reopen as planned. He made reference to analysing numbers and data points, but he certainly didn’t say yes