Covid 19 Part XXI-27,908 in ROI (1,777 deaths) 6,647 in NI (559 deaths)(22/08)Read OP

lukas8888

froog wrote: »

can't believe how people seem to have forgotten the lag between cases and deaths.

You have forgotten the hospital bit,cases icu then deaths.No sign of any surge in hospital admissions yet.

MickeyLeari

podgeandrodge wrote: »

So what is Govt. goal now? Is it still 'flatten the curve' (aren't we reasonably flat?) Or is it practical elimination strategy?

Originally we were told the goal was not to overwhelm the health services, and the original phases I understood to be in keeping with that ie that there was an acceptance that we'd live with a few cases once we had it under control.

But now we're keeping things closed even those that didn't contribute to case problems. Like we are afraid of cases going up, rather than managing that situation as and if/when it occurs.

The strategy is clear - make it up as they go along.

is_that_so

hotmail.com wrote: »

Pubs and restaurants will be listening closely. It seems almost certain that non food pubs won't be reopening any time soon.

I'd be inclined to agree - likely another 3 weeks out to near the end of September.

GooglePlus

Benimar wrote: »

Ronan Glynn asked on RTÉ News if schools will reopen as planned. He made reference to analysing numbers and data points, but he certainly didn’t say yes

He won't touch that with a barge pole.

froog

niallo27 wrote: »

200 down to 66 and Zero deaths, hardly horrible.

not great, not terrible.

MOR316

I have this feeling they'll recommend closing the pubs/restaurants that are currently open

bennyl10

hotmail.com wrote: »

Pubs and restaurants will be listening closely. It seems almost certain that non food pubs won't be reopening any time soon.

wouldnt be surprised if all Pubs were closed again.

cant do much else, but it would stop congregating

Jim_Hodge

Stheno wrote: »

Where did you see that?

RTE News

Acting Chief Medical Officer Dr Ronan Glynn said: "NPHET (The National Public Health Emergency Team) will meet tomorrow to review and discuss the case figures that have been reported in recent days and will make any necessary recommendations to Government which are required to protect the vulnerable, continue with the resumption of healthcare services and ensure the safe reopening of our schools."

"The phased reopening of the country has afforded people the opportunity to socialise with each other again. However, some are doing this recklessly and undermining the efforts of the majority of people around the country who are following public health advice. This cannot continue.

Non solum non ambulabit

wadacrack wrote: »

Hospitalizations now beginning to increase in France.People need to stop believing unfounded theories

Of course they are rising with new cases. But will the ICUs get overwhelmed and deaths spike massively. It's definitely worth watching rather than obsession with cases.

froog

MickeyLeari wrote: »

The strategy is clear - make it up as they go along.

isn't that what the whole world is doing? it's a novel virus and we're not even a year into the pandemic.

MickeyLeari

GooglePlus wrote: »

We're a much closer relation socially speaking, so I guess it's to compare how both societies are doing as they're so alike.

We are not. We have less density than them, we have a less diverse population (African/Asian ethnicity) and we do not have any big cities.

Clonmel1000

bennyl10 wrote: »

wouldnt be surprised if all Pubs were closed again.

cant do much else, but it would stop congregating

No it’ll put congregations to homes etc.

harr

Total non scientific take on low hospital numbers or deaths. I know a few that had it earlier on year and all were placed in hospital even if the symptoms were not serious. I currently know a handful from current outbreak in kildare and the symptoms don’t seem to be as complex and in fact a few didn’t display any symptoms at all..
Don’t know if the virus has weakened Or doctors are treating it better but definitely not admitting as many into hospital.

Non solum non ambulabit

ACitizenErased wrote: »

The lack of hospital admission is quite surprising tbh.


Here is the amount of cases in the last two weeks, plus the hospitalisation rate per HPSC data, and the expected number of hospitalisations.

0-4 - +42 - HR of 10.21% gives expected admissions of 4 people
5-14 - +74 - HR of 4.33% gives expected admissions of 3 people
15-24 - +200 - HR of 3.69% gives expected admissions of 7 people
25-34 - +263 - HR of 4.37% gives expected admissions of 11 people
35-44 - +199 - HR of 5.82% gives expected admissions of 12 people
45-54 - +158 - HR of 9.49% gives expected admissions of 15 people
55-64 - +83 - HR of 14.97% gives expected admissions of 12 people
65-74 - +42 - HR of 31.85% gives expected admissions of 13 people
75-84 - +14 - HR of 32.43% gives expected admissions of 5 people
85+ - +7 - HR of 20.09% gives expected admissions of 1 person


Total expected admissions: 83 people in last two weeks.
Actual admissions: +26

Thanks ACE. Some really interesting data there.

I don't have any answers just interesting to note trends.

Seamai

hotmail.com wrote: »

I understand that, but it seems a bit weird to just compare ourselves with the UK, a vastly different country to ours with 4 component nations.

Can RTE not get into the habit of comparing us with comparable sized countries like Slovakia.

Well they are the only country we share a land border with.

caveat emptor

MickeyLeari wrote: »

The strategy is clear - make it up as they go along.

Absolutely that’s what you have to do in a pandemic.
You have to make a decision even though you don’t have all the facts.

It’s clear people have never had to make a decision when they didn’t have all of the information to hand. Each case is a crisis for a person , their family and potentially their community. You can’t just put off the decision until we know for sure how this spreads and why some people die.

ACitizenErased

harr wrote: »

Total non scientific take on low hospital numbers or deaths. I know a few that had it earlier on year and all were placed in hospital even if the symptoms were not serious. I currently know a handful from current outbreak in kildare and the symptoms don’t seem to be as complex and in fact a few didn’t display any symptoms at all..
Don’t know if the virus has weakened Or doctors are treating it better but definitely not admitting as many into hospital.

Based on what the people you know are saying, would ya think there is a high amount of asymptomatic cases from those outbreaks?

smurfjed

Martina1991 wrote: »

If your tested for work, I'm guessing your company isn't using public HSE labs.

Who is taking your swabs?

I’m not in ireland, local ministry of health sends teams to each of our 3 locations, results within 24 hours

On Tuesday I shall do my 23rd test.

The Unbearables

MOR316 wrote: »

I have this feeling they'll recommend closing the pubs/restaurants that are currently open

Would be a good move. We need to double down and get on top of this.

caveat emptor

Gael23 wrote: »

I don’t like the way the CMO is talking

So what? Why?

touts

bennyl10 wrote: »

wouldnt be surprised if all Pubs were closed again.

cant do much else, but it would stop congregating

Or why not let all pubs open but ban the sale of alcohol in pubs and off licences. If the pub is all about social cohesion and meeting friends/neighbours as the Vintners claim then surely they could do that with minerals and tea/coffee.

Basically call their bluff.

harr

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Based on what the people you know are saying, would ya think there is a high amount of asymptomatic cases from those outbreaks?

Yes out of the 6 I currently know 3 had no symptoms at all and the other 3 only developed mild symptoms after they were diagnosed. When I say mild I mean symptoms in line with a heavy cold .

ACitizenErased

harr wrote: »

Yes out of the 6 I currently know 3 had no symptoms at all and the other 3 only developed mild symptoms after they were diagnosed. When I say mild I mean symptoms in line with a heavy cold .

And what age range would they be, if ya don't mind me asking? Would ya say they are healthy individuals?

DevilsHaircut

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Nope, I haven't. 24/235 0-4 hospitalised per HPSC up to 12th August gives 10.21%.

OK. Deleted.

But our inability to test in March/April as backed up by the antibody survey results means that we missed c. 85% of cases overall.

That increases the apparent hospitalisation rate per cohort.

We are now detecting a greater percentage of cases (as indicated by the asymptomatics found).

So the overall hospitalisation rate can't be used to predict the current one (or to come up with a theory about e.g. the virus 'weakening').

Gruffalux

Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »

Thanks ACE. Some really interesting data there.

I don't have any answers just interesting to note trends.

I question an analyses of hospital rates from past 2 weeks as hospitalisation lags cases by 15 days approx. A better statistical use of such calculations would be to analyse the case figures per age group from 3 and 4 weeks ago. Certainly to include this past weeks cases is not statistically sound and it is arguable if it is statistically sound to include the previous weeks.

is_that_so

caveat emptor wrote: »

So what? Why?

He's just doing what Holohan used to do at briefings, which would then be followed by a Harris harangue and often a Leo comment. They definitely do things differently in this new government.

Spanish Eyes

Why is Glynn ACTING cmo? FGS if he is out there give him the job full stop. What is that all about?

is_that_so

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Why is Glynn ACTING cmo? FGS if he is out there give him the job full stop. What is that all about?

Holohan will be back in time, but not for quite a bit one would imagine.

bennyl10

touts wrote: »

Or why not let all pubs open but ban the sale of alcohol in pubs and off licences. If the pub is all about social cohesion and meeting friends/neighbours as the Vintners claim then surely they could do that with minerals and tea/coffee.

Basically call their bluff.

because banning alcohols sales stops absolutely noting other than driving the problem underground

sale of alocohol isn't the issue, stopping it would be an insane step

godtabh

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Why is Glynn ACTING cmo? FGS if he is out there give him the job full stop. What is that all about?

The CMO’s wife is in palliative care. At the height of crisis
Was balancing managing this crisis while he had a terminal ill wife and kids at home. He is now taking a temp leave of absence

ACitizenErased

DevilsHaircut wrote: »

OK. Deleted.

But our inability to test in March/April as backed up by the antibody survey results means that we missed c. 85% of cases overall.

That increases the apparent hospitalisation rate per cohort.

We are now detecting a greater percentage of cases (as indicated by the asymptomatics found).

So the overall hospitalisation rate can't be used to predict the current one (or to come up with a theory about e.g. the virus 'weakening').

If that is the case it does back up the theory that this level of cases won't see any sort of surge in hospitalisations.

xvril

It must be a concern that a lot of cases are not easy to trace at the moment.

hmmm

We're testing more and finding more cases. There's no mystery about hospital figures, they will start rising again if spread picks up.

harr

ACitizenErased wrote: »

And what age range would they be, if ya don't mind me asking? Would ya say they are healthy individuals?

The people I knew in June were health care workers all in late 30,s early 40,s all hospitalised.
Current individuals I know are meat factory workers all in there 40,s , 4 workers and two partners of the workers.

Jim_Hodge

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Why is Glynn ACTING cmo? FGS if he is out there give him the job full stop. What is that all about?

Because the CMO is on extended leave for family reasons. Have you never encountered somebody in an acting position for a considerable length of time?

Utopia Parkway

touts wrote: »

Or why not let all pubs open but ban the sale of alcohol in pubs and off licences. If the pub is all about social cohesion and meeting friends/neighbours as the Vintners claim then surely they could do that with minerals and tea/coffee.

Basically call their bluff.

Of the many daft things posted on here daily that is definitely one of the dafter.

niallo27

hmmm wrote: »

We're testing more and finding more cases. There's no mystery about hospital figures, they will start rising again if spread picks up.

How long is the lag supposed to be though, they say 15% require hospitalisation but this does no correspond to numbers from 2 to 4 weeks ago.

amandstu

Can anyone tell me if it is possible to easily reference the daily and overall Community Transmission figures both here and in other countries?

Standalone or as a percentage.

drunkmonkey

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

Because the CMO is on extended leave for family reasons. Have you never encountered somebody in an acting position for a considerable length of time?

He was openly disputing with government when he left, it all felt a bit sudden, I don't think he'll be back.

DevilsHaircut

ACitizenErased wrote: »

If that is the case it does back up the theory that this level of cases won't see any sort of surge in hospitalisations.

It depends how many cases our current cases infect, and who they are.

Spain went from 156 to 864 hospitalisations per week in the last month.


https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1294619858638905344

Strumms

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Why is Glynn ACTING cmo? FGS if he is out there give him the job full stop. What is that all about?

Can’t ‘give’ him a job that isn’t vacant. It’s still Tony Holohans job... he is just on leave... Glynn steps in to temporarily fill the position and carry out the duties that need to be done.

Jim_Hodge

drunkmonkey wrote: »

He was openly disputing with government when he left, it all felt a bit sudden, I don't think he'll be back.

Oh please, give us a break. That's unfounded nonsense.

landofthetree

Higher rate than the UK and USA. :rolleyes:

So while the media were slamming Boris and Trump our own government weren't doing so well.

bennyl10

drunkmonkey wrote: »

He was openly disputing with government when he left, it all felt a bit sudden, I don't think he'll be back.

6 months on and we have, by some distance, the worst conspiracy theory on this thread

insanity

hmmm

Lag between community transmission and deaths is 2 months in the view of this epidemiologist . Anyone who says "but there are no deaths" as case numbers start to increase either don't understand Covid, or they are deliberately trying to confuse the matter.

https://twitter.com/prieto_alhambra/status/1294893299501850624

is_that_so

niallo27 wrote: »

How long is the lag supposed to be though, they say 15% require hospitalisation but this does no correspond to numbers from 2 to 4 weeks ago.

Yeah that is about the timeframe but the difference now is that those who are seen to be most at risk are not as directly in the firing line as in March. With younger age groups in general now infected there may also be fewer who will get to the point of hospitalisation.

podgeandrodge

bennyl10 wrote: »

wouldnt be surprised if all Pubs were closed again.

cant do much else, but it would stop congregating

And would stop all the thousands of cases arising from pub/restaurants is that it?

lee_baby_simms

Some interesting new data.

https://twitter.com/jamestodaromd/status/1295051307582140417?s=21

podgeandrodge

podgeandrodge wrote: »

So what is Govt. goal now? Is it still 'flatten the curve' (aren't we reasonably flat?) Or is it practical elimination strategy?

Originally we were told the goal was not to overwhelm the health services, and the original phases I understood to be in keeping with that ie that there was an acceptance that we'd live with a few cases once we had it under control.

But now we're keeping things closed even those that didn't contribute to case problems. Like we are afraid of cases going up, rather than managing that situation as and if/when it occurs.

If they engage in more restrictions then their original plan no longer holds.

MOR316

The Unbearables wrote: »

Would be a good move. We need to double down and get on top of this.

No, no it would not be a good move at all