Covid 19 Part XXI-27,908 in ROI (1,777 deaths) 6,647 in NI (559 deaths)(22/08)Read OP

BorneTobyWilde

Oranage2 wrote: »

66 cases I'll be able to sleep somewhat sounder. Crazy to think only two weeks ago 66 was a high number, nowadays double digits seems to be a good number.

It's like people think that todays numbers somehow makes the numbers of the previous days disappear. It's another 66, on top of the hundreds of cases this past few days.

is_that_so

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

It's like people think that todays numbers somehow makes the numbers of the previous days disappear. It's another 66, on top of the hundreds of cases this past few days.

Some people need to be reassured by lower numbers, nothing more just as they'd be concerned about a higher number tomorrow.

gmisk

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

It's like people think that todays numbers somehow makes the numbers of the previous days disappear. It's another 66, on top of the hundreds of cases this past few days.

Is that not also quiet a high number for a Sunday?

Quick look and it seems to be highest Sunday since mid May

MOR316

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

It's like people think that todays numbers somehow makes the numbers of the previous days disappear. It's another 66, on top of the hundreds of cases this past few days.

Person in taking relief at lower case numbers, to ease their worries and mind, as human nature dictates, shocker

:rolleyes:

hmmm

lee_baby_simms wrote: »

Some interesting new data.

And a paper was published yesterday which said exactly the opposite. Exposure to other coronavirus did not give protection against Covid. Science eh. But good people are looking into this, so we should get closer to the truth.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.14.20173393v1

What Username Guidelines

ACitizenErased wrote: »

The lack of hospital admission is quite surprising tbh.


Here is the amount of cases in the last two weeks, plus the hospitalisation rate per HPSC data, and the expected number of hospitalisations.

0-4 - +42 - HR of 10.21% gives expected admissions of 4 people
5-14 - +74 - HR of 4.33% gives expected admissions of 3 people
15-24 - +200 - HR of 3.69% gives expected admissions of 7 people
25-34 - +263 - HR of 4.37% gives expected admissions of 11 people
35-44 - +199 - HR of 5.82% gives expected admissions of 12 people
45-54 - +158 - HR of 9.49% gives expected admissions of 15 people
55-64 - +83 - HR of 14.97% gives expected admissions of 12 people
65-74 - +42 - HR of 31.85% gives expected admissions of 13 people
75-84 - +14 - HR of 32.43% gives expected admissions of 5 people
85+ - +7 - HR of 20.09% gives expected admissions of 1 person


Total expected admissions: 83 people in last two weeks.
Actual admissions: +26

You’re a gentleman and an officer. Thanks for pulling this together.

Jim_Hodge

gmisk wrote: »

Is that not also quiet a high number for a Sunday?

Quick look and it seems to be highest Sunday since mid May

68 last sunday?

gmisk

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

68 last sunday?

Ah ok you could be right I just had quick glance

froog

this thing is not in control and it's going to get worse. what exactly are we doing? crossing our fingers and hoping for the best? our current level of controls is clearly not sufficient.

BorneTobyWilde

Europe hasn't even obtained the pre order for a vaccine, even if one was ready. A lot of work to do on that. So many other parts of the world have their orders well in.

fleet_admiral

Limpy wrote: »

Turn off the news lads and get on with your lives.

Yep. Im going for a pint

spookwoman

Sunday numbers
05/07 18
12/07 17
19/07 10
26/07 12
02/08 53
09/08 68
16/08 66

xhomelezz

Testing and contact tracing sux. Sick of it. If u wanna have a clear and real picture of what's happening, you test and trace. Simple. Just wondering when we'll have that system working properly.

stephenjmcd

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Europe hasn't even obtained the pre order for a vaccine, even if one was ready. A lot of work to do on that. So many other parts of the world have their orders well in.

Europe has pre orders in. 400m doses of Oxford to name just one.

BorneTobyWilde

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/indian-billionaires-bet-big-on-head-start-in-coronavirus-vaccine-race/articleshow/77315152.cms

Hope that gamble pays off.

DevilsHaircut

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Europe hasn't even obtained the pre order for a vaccine, even if one was ready. A lot of work to do on that. So many other parts of the world have their orders well in.

https://twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/1294210032066756608

ChikiChiki

fleet_admiral wrote: »

Yep. Im going for a pint

Might aswell while you still can. It firmly looks like the wheels have come off in containing it.

BorneTobyWilde

DevilsHaircut wrote: »

https://twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/1294210032066756608

An order, but there is a queue at the Chip Shop

JP Liz V1

ACitizenErased wrote: »

3 community transmission

That's good, it is low yes?

DevilsHaircut

lee_baby_simms wrote: »

Some interesting new data.

Todaro is a bitcoin investor and promoter who happens to have a medical degree.

From the discoverer and main authority on T-cell cross-reactivity with Covid.


https://twitter.com/profshanecrotty/status/1293346418158051330

xhomelezz

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

That's good, it is low yes?

They have no idea, cuz they still investigating.

spookwoman

Community Transmission since 31/7/2020
31/7 19
01/8 12
02/8 4 (Sunday)
03/8 5
04/8 4
05/8 4
06/8 2
07/8 4
08/8 5 (Sunday)
09/8 2
10/8 8
11/8 5
12/8 13
13/8 12
14/8 16
15/8 25
16/8 3 (Sunday)

shinzon

jesus more bad news

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0816/1159506-coronavirus-experts-this-week/?fbclid=IwAR0UggE7QnmUggF71Xgrg24vJH6N7KMCc-UODVoOWR1yi85MltiDuld0RQI

A leading US epidemiologist has told RTÉ News that the coronavirus will be "with us humans for all eternity".

Speaking on RTÉ's This Week, Dr Mike Osterholm, Director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, said: "We are unfortunately in a world that will always have it circulating somewhere. The question is going to be how well do we control it," he said.

Dr Osterholm said this coronavirus is behaving differently to the previous ten pandemics going back 250 years.

Unlike flu pandemics, he said, Covid-19 is not coming in waves.

"We weren’t sure what this coronavirus would do because we’ve never witnessed a pandemic of a coronavirus before. Now we know it’s kind of a super forest fire. It just keeps burning and burning and burning wherever there is human wood."

Dr Osterholm said countries around the world were showing very different results in battling the forest fire.

"If you look at many countries that were houses on fire back in March and April, they have done a good job of reducing cases substantially and keeping them at a low level, unlike the US where we never did lock down completely.

"We released the public back into every day life long before the cases had decreased. And it came back in a very big way."

Looking ahead to the reopening of Irish schools, Dr Osterholm warned against lumping all children together

Shin

Gruffalux

Analyses of Case Figures from week 20 - 26 July and week 27 July to 2nd August, and corresponding expected hospitalisations given 15+ days lag.

Case Numbers between 27/07 - 02/08

Age 0-4 + 26 @ 10.2 % hospitalisation - expected = 2.6
Age 5 - 14 + 34 @ 4.3% hospitalisation - expected = 1.4
Age 15 - 24 + 77 @ 3.6% hospitalisation - expected = 2.7
Age 25 - 34 + 131 @ 4.3 % hospitalisation - expected = 5.7
Age 35 - 44 + 71 @ 5.8% hospitalisation - expected = 4
Age 45 - 54 + 65 @ 9.5% hospitalisation - expected = 6
Age 55 - 64 + 22 @ 15% hospitalisation - expected = 3.4
Age 65 - 74 + 16 @ 33% hospitalisation - expected = 5.1
Age 75 - 84 + 8 @32% hospitalisation - expected = 2.7
Age 85 plus + 5 @ 20% hospitalisation - expected = 1

Total expected from cases figures given 15+ day lag to hospitalisation = 34.6
Actual hospitalisations = 26


My figures are not correct enough to be used in scientific research that depends upon absolute correctness but are close enough for ordinary everyday use.

They would be different if calculated from 27 July - 9th August. But that's enough sums for me.

fly_agaric

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

An order, but there is a queue at the Chip Shop

There is more detail about it here.

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_20_1438

Even if several of these potential vaccines are proven + go into production, the numbers to be vaccinated are fairly mind-boggling (to me). Can't see it being a quick process.

giveitholly

A further 18 positive cases from the mushroom factory in Golden with further results due on Monday

s1ippy

This editing of interviews to downplay how unsafe Irish schools are is incredibly frustrating.

https://www.rte.ie/amp/1159506/

From the full interview on RTÉ radio this morning:

"We released the public back into every day life long before the cases had decreased. And it came back in a very big way."

Looking ahead to the reopening of Irish schools, Dr Osterholm warned against lumping all children together

"If you look at children under the age of nine and compare that to children that are older there are very different patterns.

"In young children we still see very limited transmission and much less disease overall.

"On the other hand in adolescents and young adults we’ve seen lots of transmission, going to parties and bars and so forth. In Ireland the real challenge is going to be in those older kids."

Dr Osterholm also predicts an explosion of cases in the US when students aged between ten and 20 return to education settings.

Speaking on the same programme, Dr Kim Roberts, Assistant Professor of microbiology at TCD, described the latest figures here as "worrying".

Ireland's 14-day incidence per 100,000 people is now 22.

"There is a feeling that intervention fatigue is kicking in. People want this pandemic to be over, but it’s not going to be over soon. We need to double down on the intervention strategies," she said.

Dr Roberts also expressed concern about the current strategy for returning to school.

"I am very much in favour of keeping the two-metre distance as much as possible and that is one of the biggest challenges in the school setting," she said.

Dr Roberts said face masks should not be seen as a replacement for the keeping the two-metre distance.

Instead, they should be seen as an extra layer for protection.

"Face masks can play a role but they don’t replace that need to keep two metres."

...

Dr Osterholm rejected the idea that either health or economy should take precedence when dealing with the pandemic

"It should be both," he said "If you do well by health, you’ll do well by the economy."

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/this-cannot-continue-warns-dr-ronan-glynn-as-66-new-cases-of-covid-19-reported-1.4331498?mode=amp

And from the Irish Times one:

Michael Osterholm, director of the Centre for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, at the University of Minnesota, told RTÉ radio’s This Week programme that the US is likely to see an “explosion” of cases in the coming weeks as teenagers and young adults return to education.

He said the transfer patterns among teenagers and young adults is very different to that of children, who are much less likely to transmit the disease.

In Minnesota, day care centres for children have been open all summer, without that causing much difficulty.

Mr Osterholm has recently urged a second and more effective lockdown in the US.

He said it is not a case that the pandemic involves a choice between the interests of the economy vs the interests of public health.

“If you do well by health, you will do well by the economy,” he said.

Why omit the part where the safety issues are mentioned? There's a huge part of the message which is missing there, so the article does not accurately indicate the failings of our planned school reopening. If we accept things as they are, we're all complicit in this trainwreck. We can only hope to jaysis that NPHET does the right thing this week.

DevilsHaircut

spookwoman wrote: »

Community Transmission since 31/7/2020
31/7 19
01/8 12
02/8 4 (Sunday)
03/8 5
04/8 4
05/8 4
06/8 2
07/8 4
08/8 5 (Sunday)
09/8 2
10/8 8
11/8 5
12/8 13
13/8 12
14/8 16
15/8 25
16/8 3 (Sunday)

That might understate it, as 'possible community transmission' is always a big category at the time of announcement, before they've resolved the cases as much as they can.

drunkmonkey

giveitholly wrote: »

A further 18 positive cases from the mushroom factory in Golden with further results due on Monday

There weren't in today's numbers though?

frillyleaf

How much has this all cost us compared to the last recession we had? Am I right in thinking we were €69 billion in debt? It’s hard to understand the sheer amount of debt we were in

Beanybabog

harr wrote: »

Don’t know if the virus has weakened Or doctors are treating it better but definitely not admitting as many into hospital.

Do you get any treatment if you aren’t hospitalised? I thought it was just paracetamol, fluids, isolate and call for help if you get bad

spookwoman

DevilsHaircut wrote: »

That might understate it, as 'possible community transmission' is always a big category at the time of announcement, before they've resolved the cases as much as they can.

Remember the gov reports are 2 days behind so that 16 was associated with the Friday number of 200 , 13 were associated with Clusters / close contacts and 146 are/were still being worked on

caveat emptor

frillyleaf wrote: »

How much has this all cost us compared to the last recession we had? Am I right in thinking we were €69 billion in debt? It’s hard to understand the sheer amount of debt we were in

Luckily we can print euros or we'd be rightly fvcked. Now if you are scared of debt don't look at Italy or Spain, look at Germany though.

Thank Mario Draghi for doing "whatever it takes" to save the euro.

I feel immensely reassured by this message. The Green Party leader is being consulted. FFS blame spreading.
Not!

https://twitter.com/MichealMartinTD/status/1294983504472793088?s=20

drunkmonkey

frillyleaf wrote: »

How much has this all cost us compared to the last recession we had? Am I right in thinking we were €69 billion in debt? It’s hard to understand the sheer amount of debt we were in

Think we were about 220 billion in debt going into this, must be hitting the 300 billion mark by now.

Renjit

ACitizenErased wrote: »

If that is the case it does back up the theory that this level of cases won't see any sort of surge in hospitalisations.

We will need more cases in that case to get to the level of deaths earlier. Few more weeks will tell more if the cases increase further. The age group will also matter.

Jim_Hodge

spookwoman wrote: »

Community Transmission since 31/7/2020
31/7 19
01/8 12
02/8 4 (Sunday)
03/8 5
04/8 4
05/8 4
06/8 2
07/8 4
08/8 5 (Sunday)
09/8 2
10/8 8
11/8 5
12/8 13
13/8 12
14/8 16
15/8 25
16/8 3 (Sunday)

Meaningless without the outcome from those still under investigation each day.

giveitholly

drunkmonkey wrote: »

There weren't in today's numbers though?

Might not of been

https://twitter.com/TipperaryLive/status/1295039625610670081?s=19

Renjit

bennyl10 wrote: »

6 months on and we have, by some distance, the worst conspiracy theory on this thread

insanity

Just the tip of the iceberg. Some thrive on daily staple of conspiracy theories

Spanish Eyes

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Think we were about 220 billion in debt going into this, must be hitting the 300 billion mark by now.

It is monopoly money and we will pay it back over centuries like every other country. I wouldn't be too concerned personally.

jackboy

s1ippy wrote: »

Why omit the part where the safety issues are mentioned? There's a huge part of the message which is missing there, so the article does not accurately indicate the failings of our planned school reopening. If we accept things as they are, we're all complicit in this trainwreck. We can only hope to jaysis that NPHET does the right thing this week.

Surely everyone knows there will be a large spike of infections when the schools open. It will probably take at least a couple of months to adapt and learn the best way to run schools in this pandemic.

The schools have to open now though. If not then they will have to close permanently (unless an effective vaccine is produced in the future).

What can NPHET do other than recommending the schools just stay shut with no opening date proposed.

Humberto Salazar

podgeandrodge wrote: »

So what is Govt. goal now? Is it still 'flatten the curve' (aren't we reasonably flat?) Or is it practical elimination strategy?

Originally we were told the goal was not to overwhelm the health services, and the original phases I understood to be in keeping with that ie that there was an acceptance that we'd live with a few cases once we had it under control.

But now we're keeping things closed even those that didn't contribute to case problems. Like we are afraid of cases going up, rather than managing that situation as and if/when it occurs.

It isn't going to be eliminated, at least not for at least a year until a vaccine comes out and proves itself. Maybe another five years of this. We've got to open up. Protect the vulnerable yes, but it's got to run through the population over a period of years to stop health system overload. If realism is this governments shortfall, they need a big dose of it now.

Multipass

frillyleaf wrote: »

How much has this all cost us compared to the last recession we had? Am I right in thinking we were €69 billion in debt? It’s hard to understand the sheer amount of debt we were in

Every life matters. Except the 10s of 1000s who are going die from lack of treatment due to cutbacks to an already shoddy medical system. Nobody will count or obsess on that death toll though.

podgeandrodge

caveat emptor wrote: »

Luckily we can print euros or we'd be rightly fvcked. Now if you are scared of debt don't look at Italy or Spain, look at Germany though.

Thank Mario Draghi for doing "whatever it takes" to save the euro.

I feel immensely reassured by this message. The Green Party leader is being consulted. FFS blame spreading.
Not!

https://twitter.com/MichealMartinTD/status/1294983504472793088?s=20

I'm sure MM will equally tweet that he is a lot less concerned about today's figures. He's hardly going to only tweet about his concerns surely. Surely not.

caveat emptor

jackboy wrote: »

Surely everyone knows there will be a large spike of infections when the schools open. It will probably take at least a couple of months to adapt and learn the best way to run schools in this pandemic.

The schools have to open now though. If not then they will have to close permanently (unless an effective vaccine is produced in the future).

What can NPHET do other than recommending the schools just stay shut with no opening date proposed.

Yeah I don't know if it really will take that long. Physical distancing is necessary. Where it hasn't been done properly there has been outbreaks.
Luckily teachers are not meat factory bosses and realise that 1 meter does not equal 2 meters.

We are a long way off below but still.

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1294871147104940033?s=20

DevilsHaircut

spookwoman wrote: »

Remember the gov reports are 2 days behind so that 16 was associated with the Friday number of 200 , 13 were associated with Clusters / close contacts and 146 are/were still being worked on

Just saying that the final community transmission numbers will be higher as it seems to take a week or more to resolve all the 'possibles'.

That looks like the pattern in the 'How is the virus being transmitted slide' from Philip Nolan.

https://twitter.com/President_MU/status/1290403171865681920

ACitizenErased

giveitholly wrote: »

Might not of been

https://twitter.com/TipperaryLive/status/1295039625610670081?s=19

The factories are a bit beyond the joke now tbh, everyones on about the pubs and gatherings but another big factory cluster

s1ippy

caveat emptor wrote: »

Yeah I don't know if it really will take that long. Physical distancing is necessary. Where it hasn't been done properly there has been outbreaks.
Luckily teachers are not meat factory bosses and realise that 1 meter does not equal 2 meters.

We are a long way off below but still.

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1294871147104940033?s=20

I used to be a teacher and from discussions with my former colleagues you can expect exactly the same thing here unless the unions start to negotiate for blended learning.

Onesea

https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(20)30627-9.pdf


What's peoples opinion on this?

Onesea

UK over counted deaths by 5000?

seefin

Were there clusters in meat factories back in April/May or is it because of complacency now that so many clusters in those environments?