Covid 19 Part XXI-27,908 in ROI (1,777 deaths) 6,647 in NI (559 deaths)(22/08)Read OP

MD1990

RandomName2 wrote: »

One lesson I hope that comes with the fiasco of COVID-19 is that time is of the essence when responding to an outbreak. Europe essentially sat on its hands in January and February, until significant clusters had formed. When they did respond, they did so slowly, only ratcheting up the level of the response in tandem with the escalation of the numbers infected.

People took the wrong lesson from SARS. They believed that because it was halted meant you didn't have to react much, whereas the opposite was true. For weeks, no months, you had people here saying not to be hysterical.

Initially the WHO said that people should not wear face masks, only relenting after several months.

The Asiatic countries pretty much universally responded appropriately to the initial outbreak. Despite having less time to react, and being closer to the epicenter of the disease, they managed to stave it off until recently.

The criminally negligent behavior of both Europe and America gave the virus opportunity to infect the rest of the world.

The only hope now is for a vaccine, but not only a vaccine, but one that would provide herd immunity. Without this the virus will be with us forever.

Again, if Europe and America stay true to form, and feel that an uptake of just 10-20% for the vaccine is okay, then that's what we'll get. At least if the most vulnerable can be protected that will be a major plus.

At the moment all we are doing is playing for time for a widespread vaccine to be available. The capacity to eradicate the virus, as was done with SARS 1 and MERS, disappeared back in February. The only silver lining is that SARS and MERS were way, way more deadly than COVID-19

Did not know you were an epidemiologist.

So many people have qualified in this field in the last 6 months

Snow Garden

RandomName2 wrote: »

The only hope now is for a vaccine, but not only a vaccine, but one that would provide herd immunity. Without this the virus will be with us forever.

I don't think people believe a foolproof vaccine is possible. Yeah we have vaccines for the flu but a few new strains appear every year. The flu vaccine is about 70% effective at best? We don't have a vaccine for the 'common cold'. I don't believe a herd immunity vaccine will be possible for this respiratory virus.

Van.Bosch

Snow Garden wrote: »

I don't think people believe a foolproof vaccine is possible. Yeah we have vaccines for the flu but a few new strains appear every year. The flu vaccine is about 70% effective at best? We don't have a vaccine for the 'common cold'. I don't believe a herd immunity vaccine will be possible for this respiratory virus.

May be a stupid question but could we see the Covid/flu vaccine combined into one vaccine going forward?

schmoo2k

RandomName2 wrote: »

One lesson I hope that comes with the fiasco of COVID-19 is that time is of the essence when responding to an outbreak. Europe essentially sat on its hands in January and February, until significant clusters had formed. When they did respond, they did so slowly, only ratcheting up the level of the response in tandem with the escalation of the numbers infected.

People took the wrong lesson from SARS. They believed that because it was halted meant you didn't have to react much, whereas the opposite was true. For weeks, no months, you had people here saying not to be hysterical.

Initially the WHO said that people should not wear face masks, only relenting after several months.

The Asiatic countries pretty much universally responded appropriately to the initial outbreak. Despite having less time to react, and being closer to the epicenter of the disease, they managed to stave it off until recently.

The criminally negligent behavior of both Europe and America gave the virus opportunity to infect the rest of the world.

The only hope now is for a vaccine, but not only a vaccine, but one that would provide herd immunity. Without this the virus will be with us forever.

Again, if Europe and America stay true to form, and feel that an uptake of just 10-20% for the vaccine is okay, then that's what we'll get. At least if the most vulnerable can be protected that will be a major plus.

At the moment all we are doing is playing for time for a widespread vaccine to be available. The capacity to eradicate the virus, as was done with SARS 1 and MERS, disappeared back in February. The only silver lining is that SARS and MERS were way, way more deadly than COVID-19

Considering things in Italy didn't really kick off until 21 Feb (with 20 cases) that is a bit harsh...

Christy42

Snow Garden wrote: »

I don't think people believe a foolproof vaccine is possible. Yeah we have vaccines for the flu but a few new strains appear every year. The flu vaccine is about 70% effective at best? We don't have a vaccine for the 'common cold'. I don't believe a herd immunity vaccine will be possible for this respiratory virus.

How similar is it to the flu or cold though? The respiratory nature of it has little to do with there not being catch all vaccines. I wonder how many different strains of the disease they have found which would be a more relevant method of seeing how effective a vaccine would be.

RandomName2

MD1990 wrote: »

Did not know you were an epidemiologist.

So many people have qualified in this field in the last 6 months

You see, this is what I mean.

Common sense man.



Back, back in the before times:

There's only 4 cases in Ireland

It grows exponentially.

Didn't know you were an epidemiologist :rolleyes:

Come on. You understand that if the virus can spread through the majority of the population that it's going to be a permanent feature, and just be incorporated into the fabric of season flu in the way that the 1918 flu was, right? Granted that it will evolve over the seasons (hopefully into a less dangerous form), but I cannot pretend that you do not understand the implications of not having herd immunity.

caveat emptor

Italy is doing well relatively. Everyone wondering why that could be. They've taken a fairly hard line with returning holidaymakers. (saying we have tough restrictions is bullish!t)

If you are returning there from Spain, Malta, Greece, Croatia you get a bracelet at the border (think hospital bracelet) with a QR code and you are added to a database.
You must isolate at home and go to a test centre as soon as possible.
If you are found leaving the house out and about you get a fine.
If you don't go for a test within a specified timeframe, you get a fine.
Furthermore anyone in the house which you live in must also stay home until your test comes back negative.
Fine is 1500 and is linked to department of social protection so you are guaranteed to get if you don't comply.

RandomName2

schmoo2k wrote: »

Considering things in Italy didn't really kick off until 21 Feb (with 20 cases) that is a bit harsh...

Not harsh enough.

The government there had the 'hug a Chinese person' drive when there was growing concern about the unexplained acute respiratory virus announced in China.

And then the other European countries just looked on as Italy was ravaged and said 'well we couldn't halt flights to Italy, that would be offensive to Italy'. And then, after we have a major outbreak, we halt flights to Italy. Would have been an idea to do that before there was a major outbreak.

Trump went on the air and said 'we only have a dozen cases, so we expect that to get much less very quickly' and his experts had to come up to the podium and say 'we just want to stress that we actually expect more cases'.

Vietnam had its first confirmed cases on 23rd January. Their first death was 31st July.

ACitizenErased

RandomName2 wrote: »

Not harsh enough.

The government there had the 'hug a Chinese person' drive when there was growing concern about the unexplained acute respiratory virus announced in China.

And then the other European countries just looked on as Italy was ravaged and said 'well we couldn't halt flights to Italy, that would be offensive to Italy'. And then, after we have a major outbreak, we halt flights to Italy. Would have been an idea to do that before there was a major outbreak.

Trump went on the air and said 'we only have a dozen cases, so we expect that to get much less very quickly' and his experts had to come up to the podium and say 'we just want to stress that we actually expect more cases'.

Vietnam had its first confirmed cases on 23rd January. Their first death was 31st July.

How are you comparing the continent of Europe with communist Vietnam

stephenjmcd

caveat emptor wrote: »

Italy is doing well relatively. Everyone wondering why that could be. They've taken a fairly hard line with returning holidaymakers. (saying we have tough restrictions is bullish!t)

If you are returning there from Spain, Malta, Greece, Croatia you get a bracelet at the border (think hospital bracelet) with a QR code and you are added to a database.
You must isolate at home and go to a test centre as soon as possible.
If you are found leaving the house out and about you get a fine.
If you don't go for a test within a specified timeframe, you get a fine.
Furthermore anyone in the house which you live in must also stay home until your test comes back negative.
Fine is 1500 and is linked to department of social protection so you are guaranteed to get if you don't comply.

It varies by region,

https://www.thelocal.it/20200812/italian-region-introduces-quarantine-for-residents-returning-from-spain-greece-or-malta

General measures in place for “high risk” EU countries.

Italy has imposed mandatory coronavirus testing for all travellers arriving from Croatia, Greece, Malta and Spain.

But yeah by EU standards Italy have done exceptionally well since opening up.

podgeandrodge

ACitizenErased wrote: »

The latest GP buddy stats show very little uptick anywhere in the country tbh

I see the Covid Tracker is showing 100% feeling good and 0% showing some symptoms in last few days, having been 1-2% some symptoms for quite a while.

Nice to see.

RandomName2

ACitizenErased wrote: »

How are you comparing the continent of Europe with communist Vietnam

Are you actually serious.

Use Taiwan as your metric if the type of government is a factor in your estimation of the worth of an epidemiological response.

theballz

Does anyone know if the bar in question on Dame street, Berlin was allowed open again last night?
I know the owner came out and said they were making some of decision yesterday - keen to understand whether this happened or not.

Equally, has there been any reports of the Garda following up on this?

These guys need to be made an example of.

Eod100

No briefing this evening https://twitter.com/RobOHanrahan/status/1295303198366994432?s=19

ACitizenErased

RandomName2 wrote: »

Are you actually serious.

Are you serious, right now? Did you actually have your brain work, say 'yes, this is something that I think makes sense', type it, and put it online for the world to read?

Use Taiwan as your metric if the type of government is a factor in your estimation of the worth of an epidemiological response.

What a lovely response.
Let’s compare to Taiwan - a country who have experienced a coronavirus outbreak before.

hotmail.com

Eod100 wrote: »

No briefing this evening https://twitter.com/RobOHanrahan/status/1295303198366994432?s=19

They are gearing us up for new restrictions.

ACitizenErased

hotmail.com wrote: »

They are gearing us up for new restrictions.

A department of health briefing always follows announcements on restrictions.. so no

Ineedaname

Snow Garden wrote: »

I don't think people believe a foolproof vaccine is possible. Yeah we have vaccines for the flu but a few new strains appear every year. The flu vaccine is about 70% effective at best? We don't have a vaccine for the 'common cold'. I don't believe a herd immunity vaccine will be possible for this respiratory virus.

There's multiple strains of flu. It also mutates regularly so it can fool your immune system. COVID seems to be pretty stable so far with no signs of significant mutation.

It's true that we don't have a vaccine for the common cold but that's mostly due to issues with practicality. There are over 200 virues that cause it. Each one would require it's own vaccine. For an illness that causes no issues with the vast majority of people it just isn't feasible.

stephenjmcd

hotmail.com wrote: »

They are gearing us up for new restrictions.

Or that they've better things to be doing like having a meeting, than sitting there being asked the same questions as every other press conference.

Press release with the daily numbers is all thats needed

s1ippy

So in the week where there are high cases and many environments with clusters, starting to resemble the approach to the previous high numbers at the peak (where we had briefings every day), we go from the briefing on Wednesday 12th to no briefing until Thursday 20th.

Absolute frustrating bullish!t is an understatement.

Eod100

ACitizenErased wrote: »

A department of health briefing always follows announcements on restrictions.. so no

I guess this evening would be usual Monday briefing. Could be another briefing over coming days or as part of usual one again on Thursday.

Might be measures like restricting visits to nursing homes to other counties outside Kildare, Laois and Offaly say. Think there's a lot of will to get schools reopened so will want to try reduce cases as much as possible over next 2 weeks.

Benimar

The meeting is this afternoon, so I'd imagine Ronan Glynn would have to brief Stephen Donnelly straight after, hence the postponement.

I don't think we can read anything into it, either good or bad tbh.

bb1234567

https://mobile.twitter.com/mlevitt_np2013/status/1287036738565738496?lang=en

So the darling Nobel Prize winner Michael Levitt has been completely wrong about his prediction of the pandemic effectively totally ceasing in the USA at 170k deaths. Now they are at 173k deaths and over 225k excess deaths and no end in sight to the epidemic there. Now I think it time to stop and question those who hold unwavering belief in certain individuals opinion's just because of their reputation, because time and time again it has turned out wrong since the covid outbreak began.
This prediction was so evidently going to false even when he announced it , it was clear as day, but you've posters being called out as 'armchair epidimiologists ' to in any way question the theories of somebody like this . If anything this pandemic has taught its that well regarded and intelligent scientists and researchers are more than capable of talking out their ass in order to please certain audiences and let them hear what they want to.

Eod100

Benimar wrote: »

The meeting is this afternoon, so I'd imagine Ronan Glynn would have to brief Stephen Donnelly straight after, hence the postponement.

I don't think we can read anything into it, either good or bad tbh.

On it's own I would have agreed but think in context of rising cases, restrictions already in place for Kildare, Laois and Offaly and schools reopening in 2 weeks I'd be leaning towards thinking it's a sign that some new measures will be announced in coming days.

stephenjmcd

Eod100 wrote: »

On it's own I would have agreed but think in context of rising cases, restrictions already in place for Kildare, Laois and Offaly and schools reopening in 2 weeks I'd be leaning towards thinking it's a sign that some new measures will be announced in coming days.

Well its kind of getting your priorities right.

If NPHET meet this afternoon with others to be briefed after they aren't going to be rushing back to take a press conference with the same questions being asked as the last one.

Its bottom of the list of priorities for them today you would imagine.

Wouldn't be reading anything into it.

s1ippy

s1ippy wrote: »

So in the week where there are high cases and many environments with clusters, starting to resemble the approach to the previous high numbers at the peak (where we had briefings every day), we go from the briefing on Wednesday 12th to no briefing until Thursday 20th.

Absolute frustrating bullish!t is an understatement.

7 day average is stable for the past 7 days, so is nothing like the approach to the peak. 78 on the 8th Aug and still 77 on the 16th, compared to 70 on the 19th Mar and 205 on the 27th. At no point in the initial outbreak did the number of cases plateau for a week. This tells us we have a level of control

Boggles

ACitizenErased wrote: »

The latest GP buddy stats show very little uptick anywhere in the country tbh

Have you a link to the latest data release from them?

ACitizenErased

Boggles wrote: »

Have you a link to the latest data release from them?

https://tomorrowscare.ie/covid/2020-08-13_COVID_GP_Survey_Results.pdf

GazzaL

It's a disgrace that DublinPHET and the Dublin Government are threatening to lock down the 25 counties because of a rise of cases in DUBLIN, and DUBLIN thickos gyrating in Berlin DUBLIN 2. Worse than the Black and Tans.

SeaBreezes

Micky 32 wrote: »

What rubbish are you spouting now? Does the fact that i know some people that fully recovered not fit in that misery bubble of yours? Would you like me to research and find some people that haven’t recovered? Would that make you feel all happy snug and warm? It seems to be a problem for some certain posters the fact i posted about those people, strange....

I never once deined or dismissed there is a global pandemic going on.


BTW , the reason i qouted that list saying it wasn’t relevent to me except for the last one was because you won’t see many posts from me complaining about it. So hence it was irrelevent the poster qouting them to me.

Ah Mick lighten up have you lost your sense of humour?
I was only joking.

Only misery merchants have no sense of humour.

But this in my backyardism will literally be the death of people. A relative of mine died from covid19 and another young mother still has deep fatigue months later.

Just because you dont know them personally doesnt change the fact it happened.

And Im incredibly sick of our society having to learn the hard way. Jesus what kind of imbeciles are we with ALL the warnings we have had. With the global connections and almost instant comunication and still we dismiss the evidence until we 'see' it with our own eyes. And then its too late and your knee deep in disaster crying I didnt know.

And perhaps in feb it was more understandable. But now. 6 months in and STILL the misery merchant and panic mongering labeld are being thrown around.

YES i am miserable. And rightly so. Its a miserable situation being made worse by morons who wont take simple steps to curb the bug.

And excuse me if trying to warn people is panic mongering. I have been panic mongering here since feb and unfortunately was spot on.

Funnily enough i wasnt paniced myself until now.
Ive been reading about re-infection you see.
This is a coronavirus and on average immunity to one lasts about 9 months. And the CDC reduced that to 3.
That got me curious so i started looking into it.

While there is only one study of reinfection done. (And it was a small cohort) it is a thing.
And anecdotally, 2nd time is more severe.
If you were asymptomatic the first time, its mild symptoms the 2nd. Like the phillipines minister.
Or the chinese lady who was severe first time and died the 2nd time. Then i wonder what happens 3rd or 4th times?

Now again, there has been only one study done. And noone knows if these people are outliers. But if we lose immunity to every other coronoavirus after 9 months why do we believe this one will react any differently?

That is my current misery/fear Mick.
Forgive me if i tried to lighten it with a joke at your expense.

Boggles

ACitizenErased wrote: »

https://tomorrowscare.ie/covid/2020-08-13_COVID_GP_Survey_Results.pdf

Thanks, only up until the 12th.

Will be interesting see it this week.

marno21

GazzaL wrote: »

It's a disgrace that DublinPHET and the Dublin Government are threatening to lock down the 25 counties because of a rise of cases in DUBLIN, and DUBLIN thickos gyrating in Berlin DUBLIN 2. Worse than the Black and Tans.

Dublin, as of Friday, ranks 12th in cases/100k/14 days, the metric that seems to be involved when considering regional lockdowns.

It's 14 day incidence per 100k is 1/16th that of Kildare

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1295038825631293444/photo/1

Ll31

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Well its kind of getting your priorities right.

If NPHET meet this afternoon with others to be briefed after they aren't going to be rushing back to take a press conference with the same questions being asked as the last one.

Its bottom of the list of priorities for them today you would imagine.

Wouldn't be reading anything into it.

So why cant they do briefing tomorrow as they normally would if they cant do a particular day. Very poor optics, with schools due to open and cases rising. Yes theres a lot of similar questions asked but that's mainly because that's what people want to know about. The regular briefings are important and this is just unimpressive.

ixoy

GazzaL wrote: »

It's a disgrace that DublinPHET and the Dublin Government are threatening to lock down the 25 counties because of a rise of cases in DUBLIN, and DUBLIN thickos gyrating in Berlin DUBLIN 2. Worse than the Black and Tans.

Where have they threatened to lock down 25 counties? Where have you evidence that all of the people in that bar are from Dublin (interesting fact: lots of people live in Dublin who aren't from Dublin).

little bess

Boggles wrote: »

Thanks, only up until the 12th.

Will be interesting see it this week.

Yes, and gp buddy retweeting a couple of gp’s who are concerned about uptick in referrals

https://twitter.com/eimearmccarthy8/status/1295100484869672960

Westernyelp

marno21 wrote:

Dublin, as of Friday, ranks 12th in cases/100k/14 days, the metric that seems to be involved when considering regional lockdowns.

Population density should be considered also

eagle eye

ACitizenErased wrote:

What a lovely response. Let’s compare to Taiwan - a country who have experienced a coronavirus outbreak before.

Yes we should compare to them.
Let's look at how other countries learned from what their response. What preparations did Ireland have in place for an outbreak like this?
We had nothing in place. Are we planning to be prepared in advance for something similar? Do you wanna know how that'll go? We will spend a nice sum of money on it, it'll be announced by whoever is Taoiseach at the time. Then a couple of years later that budget will be cut and then cut again until it's non-existent.

seamus

bb1234567 wrote: »

This prediction was so evidently going to false even when he announced it , it was clear as day, but you've posters being called out as 'armchair epidimiologists ' to in any way question the theories of somebody like this

I think you're being unfair there. Armchair experts get called out whenever they exist.

A man with a PhD and a Nobel prize is an expert in his area and nothing more. This guy I'm sure has a fair handle on biophysics and chemistry, but he has no business making commentary on epidemiology.

This is a classic example of the Dunning-Kruger effect. I have no doubt that the good doctor in his work has dipped in and out of immunology and worked with immunologists on some research.

This has given him an inflated sense of competence in the areas of immunology and epidemiology, to the point that he feels comfortable making obviously stupid statements like this.

What makes it worse is that someone of his credentials should be completely aware of this effect, and also of the fact that the things he says are automatically assumed to be "more right" than someone else's, regardless of the topic. So he should be taking far more care in what he says.

seamus

little bess wrote: »

Yes, and gp buddy retweeting a couple of gp’s who are concerned about uptick in referrals

I do suspect we'll see something of a paranoia effect, where people who know they haven't been taking proper precautions, suddenly freak out when they get a scratchy throat or a runny nose.

No harm at all if people are taking time for some self-reflection.

podgeandrodge

little bess wrote: »

Yes, and gp buddy retweeting a couple of gp’s who are concerned about uptick in referrals

https://twitter.com/eimearmccarthy8/status/1295100484869672960

seriously, whatever about someone re-posting it saying "Worrying times indeed" (always the ones wearing a mask in their twitter profile ), does a doctor need to be saying "Going to be a long hard Winter"?? ffs.

KrustyUCC

hotmail.com wrote: »

They are gearing us up for new restrictions.

Hope you're wrong but wouldn't be surprised either

podgeandrodge

bb1234567 wrote: »

https://mobile.twitter.com/mlevitt_np2013/status/1287036738565738496?lang=en

So the darling Nobel Prize winner Michael Levitt has been completely wrong about his prediction of the pandemic effectively totally ceasing in the USA at 170k deaths. Now they are at 173k deaths and over 225k excess deaths and no end in sight to the epidemic there. Now I think it time to stop and question those who hold unwavering belief in certain individuals opinion's just because of their reputation, because time and time again it has turned out wrong since the covid outbreak began.
This prediction was so evidently going to false even when he announced it , it was clear as day, but you've posters being called out as 'armchair epidimiologists ' to in any way question the theories of somebody like this . If anything this pandemic has taught its that well regarded and intelligent scientists and researchers are more than capable of talking out their ass in order to please certain audiences and let them hear what they want to.

Fully agree. People got very caught up in automatically believing everything people like this said, just because they got a couple of forecasts correct in the past. He predicted in March that Israel would only have 10 Covid deaths. A bit out on that one.

JP Liz V1

theballz wrote: »

Does anyone know if the bar in question on Dame street, Berlin was allowed open again last night?
I know the owner came out and said they were making some of decision yesterday - keen to understand whether this happened or not.

Equally, has there been any reports of the Garda following up on this?

These guys need to be made an example of.

Was it a private paid party of an "influencer" or open to the public that night?

JP Liz V1

GazzaL wrote: »

It's a disgrace that DublinPHET and the Dublin Government are threatening to lock down the 25 counties because of a rise of cases in DUBLIN, and DUBLIN thickos gyrating in Berlin DUBLIN 2. Worse than the Black and Tans.

Can Dublin only be "lockdown" or added to LOK group

Loafing Oaf

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

Can Dublin only be "lockdown" or added to LOK group

Then that zone would be well and truly LOKD:P

Hego Damask

BOOO!!!!

growleaves

A man with a PhD and a Nobel prize is an expert in his area and nothing more. This guy I'm sure has a fair handle on biophysics and chemistry, but he has no business making commentary on epidemiology.

I think you're very wrong here. The micro-specialisation in science is a mistake, and in theory scientific theses are supposed to be verifiable from other areas of science. In practice they may be too specialised now but if a Nobel-winning physicist and chemist can't even share comments on these matters (and he would be subject to rebuttals from every epidemiologist in the world) that that is utterly dire.

The cult of expertise has now turned into the cult of micro-expertise. Of course in practice people on this forum who tout this micro-expertise will make unprincipled exceptions for GPs or other medical scientists if they seem to verify the official line (e.g. in the Masks thread there was evidence cited from a GP that masks are effective).

Also if someone doesn't like what an epidemiologist with an alternative opinion says, they are often dismissed on spurious grounds. On this thread a senior theoretical epidemiologist from Oxford University was called "the Mad Mystic" by one commenter

Boggles

seamus wrote: »

I think you're being unfair there. Armchair experts get called out whenever they exist.

A man with a PhD and a Nobel prize is an expert in his area and nothing more. This guy I'm sure has a fair handle on biophysics and chemistry, but he has no business making commentary on epidemiology.

This is a classic example of the Dunning-Kruger effect. I have no doubt that the good doctor in his work has dipped in and out of immunology and worked with immunologists on some research.

This has given him an inflated sense of competence in the areas of immunology and epidemiology, to the point that he feels comfortable making obviously stupid statements like this.

What makes it worse is that someone of his credentials should be completely aware of this effect, and also of the fact that the things he says are automatically assumed to be "more right" than someone else's, regardless of the topic. So he should be taking far more care in what he says.

I wouldn't worry about him, he was universally ignored.

Confined to Youtube and the odd piece in the paper.

It is no real surprise, a courtesy 10 second look at his ramblings and straight away you know he was a dangerous fúckwit peddling nonsense.

He wouldn't be the first Nobel Prize winner to lose his faculties later on in life.

growleaves

In fact Oxford University's diseases specialist labs questioning of the Imperial College model and their alternate suppositions were insta-dismissed by the Guardian and Financial Times back in March, with commenters who don't understand these matters (by their own definition, since they aren't epidemiologists) echoing those dismissals.

Boggles

podgeandrodge wrote: »

seriously, whatever about someone re-posting it saying "Worrying times indeed" (always the ones wearing a mask in their twitter profile ), does a doctor need to be saying "Going to be a long hard Winter"?? ffs.

It's always a long hard winter for GPs.