Covid 19 Part XXI-27,908 in ROI (1,777 deaths) 6,647 in NI (559 deaths)(22/08)Read OP

Goldengirl

Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »

Fair enough but as I wasn't replying to you I am at a loss as to why you are replying to me?

And yes, fair enough.
You said posters, so I was making sure I was not being misquoted.

What Username Guidelines

Arghus wrote: »

It's a conspiracy theory that's become widely accepted in the thread. Along the lines of NPHET are massaging the numbers to suit themselves depending on what outcome they want. Apparently there's some reason why they want to do this. It's all part of some deliberate nefarious plan, because they are big meanies who hate us. As opposed to just being plan old quirks in how these things are reported.

Haha. I really don’t get why there’s so many up in arms over this.

It’s easy to count positive swabs and report them, no clarification needed. Those results probably come straight from the lab and are added up easily.

Obviously then the results need to be delivered and profile of patient taken or accessed to get an idea of age/gender/location, etc, whether it was a retest or a new case. That’s the bit that takes longer, to hit whatever they have specified as a “reported case”. Clearly that slows down at the weekend and catches up mid week. If they didn’t publish positive tests, we wouldn’t know.

Considering the backlog gets cleared repeatedly, it’s not some cover up to drive an agenda, if it was they could just fudge the positive test results too.

stephenjmcd

Frankie19 wrote: »

The number of positve swabs vs the number of positive cases are not the same thing. The same person could be tested 7 days later and be positive again...not a new case .

Yes we all know swabs v cases isn't the same. They're broadly in line when up to date. Not out by 137 in 48hrs.

If you test postive in Ireland your not tested again for the vast majority, this was confirmed previously by the CMO. 1 test 14 days isolation if positive no further test for the vast majority, once 14 days is up the case is classified as recovered. In hosptial yes you could be tested twice of course before discharge.

Close contacts who test negative day 0 are the only ones tested day 7.

This happened last week & has happened again this week. No surprise if tomorrow is upwards 160+ when every case is reported

Boggles

Boggles wrote: »

1 in Clare this week I think.

Linked to the Cratloe cases.

The Kilkee party and limerick cluster all linked to Cratloe. Local(s) went to the party in Kilkee with crowd from limerick and brought it back, apparently. Cases in lahinch too linked to the same party

Polar101

ACitizenErased wrote: »

There is a surge plan within the HSE for 1000 extra beds. It says this in the HSE daily update.

That's quite reassuring actually.

seamus

seamus wrote: »

In the week of 21st - 27th March, 13,300 tests picked up roughly 1,500 cases. on a positivity rate of 10-11%

In the week of 6th - 12th April (just picked one at random), we did just shy of 20,500 tests, and had a positive rate of 21%. There's no decimal point missing there. Twenty-one percent of all people tested, had Coronavirus.

In the last seven days, we did just short of 47,000 tests, with a positivity rate of 1.2%.

The raw new case numbers are scary perhaps, but we are still a million miles away from the conditions we had in March.

In many respects it's like in March we were out with a small torch looking for cockroaches and finding them everywhere. Now we're searching with a massive spotlight and only finding them in isolated corners, and in small numbers.

Great post. Deserves a re-post

lucernarian

[Deleted User] wrote: »

How many clusters associated with bars or restaurants?

I'd really like to know currently. Those sorts of values don't seem to be provided except to media requests from the HPSC Clusters have definitively been linked to reopened pubs across Britain for example, the current Aberdeen lockdown was linked to 20 pubs and restaurants.

A newsrag article claimed there's been 5 pub-related clusters in Ireland, once since lockdown happened.

Though people are emphasising low levels of community transmission, it's still happening on an ongoing basis. It's not happening from people just staying at home or carefully social distancing.

Frankie19

Where are you seeing the positive swab results released?. Be interested to look at that myself.

There is alot of rumours going around about positive tests that don't end up being true. I was told yesterday that 4 players in simonstown Gaa club in Meath tested positive. Club released a statement to say 1 had tested positive. Same happened with the Creche in Navan. Was told 5 kids had tested positive. Only 3 had.

This is causing confusion as people then don't see the cases being announced so would be good to be able to look into the positive swab numbers in more detail.

lucernarian

lucernarian wrote: »

I'd really like to know currently. Those sorts of values don't seem to be provided except to media requests from the HPSC Clusters have definitively been linked to reopened pubs across Britain for example, the current Aberdeen lockdown was linked to 20 pubs and restaurants.

A newsrag article claimed there's been 5 pub-related clusters in Ireland, once since lockdown happened.

Though people are emphasising low levels of community transmission, it's still happening on an ongoing basis. It's not happening from people just staying at home or carefully social distancing.

It’s happening in homes and workplaces. People visiting each other, and to some extent having party’s , and people working closely to each other with poor or inadequate ventilation such as meat plants and mushroom tunnels

eagle eye

6 wrote: »

Great post. Deserves a re-post

Well so does the best post of the day. The truth being told here.

Irish Steve wrote: »

NO,,,, NO,,,,,NO, that statement is over simplifying the situation.

There are indeed 19 CONFIRMED Hospitalised cases of Covid, with 8 of them in intensive care.

There are ALSO 136 SUSPECTED Hospitalised cases of Covid, with 7 of them in ICU.

At the same time, there were a total of 412 general beds available across the health service, and 42 ICU beds available .

The people at the sharp end of the health service have been working under massive pressure and stress for nearly 6 months, and they really need to see some improvements in the numbers, not more people becoming victims as a result of an increase in cases.

There is very little spare capacity, in terms of beds, and more importantly staff to cope with a surge in numbers, and some of the issues that are causing the spikes need to be addressed.

Pubs/Restaurants need to be being monitored very closely, as there are known weak spots in the system that can result in an increase in infection/spread.

There are specific issues in the meat processing plants (and other large processing companies) that are contributing to risk. Too many people living in shared accomodation and sharing vehicles to travel to and from work, so they are effectively an extended family bubble that is not just work related, it's also then travel and living situations, and I'm not just talking about direct provision, which is another issue.

The spike in cases across Europe is making the whole holiday travel situation even more non viable than it was, and at the same time, there are new community transmission cases showing up in all of the 26 counties, so even travelling within Ireland is starting to look like an issue.

The economy can't be allowed to shut down, and the schools need to get back into action, for the sake of the mental health of the students, as well as their long term education, so in the absence of an effective vaccine, we have to urgently try and find a way to live with this virus that really does work to limit the spread.

I don't know if it's Covid fatigue, or if the virus has somehow mutated, whichever it is, the relevant medical professionals need to make sure they are getting their analysis right, and that they don't allow the politicians to dilute their recommendations in ways that will cause even more ongoing problems that make the situation worse.

eagle eye

eagle eye wrote: »

Well so does the best post of the day. The truth being told here.

That was a post with absolutely zero understanding of the facts they were posting. 136 suspected cases in hospital? Anyone following this with any degree of understanding knows that figure is the number of people in hospital awaiting test results, for any reason, not the number who are actual suspected cases.

spookwoman

seamus wrote: »

In the week of 21st - 27th March, 13,300 tests picked up roughly 1,500 cases. on a positivity rate of 10-11%

In the week of 6th - 12th April (just picked one at random), we did just shy of 20,500 tests, and had a positive rate of 21%. There's no decimal point missing there. Twenty-one percent of all people tested, had Coronavirus.

In the last seven days, we did just short of 47,000 tests, with a positivity rate of 1.2%.

The raw new case numbers are scary perhaps, but we are still a million miles away from the conditions we had in March.

In many respects it's like in March we were out with a small torch looking for cockroaches and finding them everywhere. Now we're searching with a massive spotlight and only finding them in isolated corners, and in small numbers.

One little thing about the testing criteria was way tighter back at the end of march so % would be higher

caveat emptor

Frankie19 wrote: »

The number of positve swabs vs the number of positive cases are not the same thing. The same person could be tested 7 days later and be positive again...not a new case .

That’s great, I’m sure there is some nuance in the figure discrepancy.

That doesn’t explain Tipperary mushroom place.

Think it needs to be communicated. I don’t think it’s a conspiracy.

lee_baby_simms

spookwoman wrote: »

One little thing about the testing criteria was way tighter back at the end of march so % would be higher

You had to be running a temp to get a test back then right? Surely that would drive the positivity rate way up.

JDD

spookwoman wrote: »

One little thing about the testing criteria was way tighter back at the end of march so % would be higher

Actually I’m surprised it was only 21%, though I suppose some of the 79% may have been close contacts showing no symptoms. The criteria was so tight that you nearly had to be hospitalised before you got a test.

But yes, comparing positives now to early March is nonsense, when you compare our relatively slow increase over the past three weeks to the near vertical day on day increases we saw in March.

spookwoman

lee_baby_simms wrote: »

You had to be running a temp to get a test back then right? Surely that would drive the positivity rate way up.

Copied because its subscription to see published the 25th March

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/coronavirus-the-latest-major-adjustment-to-testing-eligibility-explained-1.4211788

Before March 12th, you had to be symptomatic and either be a close contact of a confirmed case of Covid-19 or to have travelled from an affected area.

Between that date and now, the testing criteria were significantly looser as the health services ramped up their strategy of “community testing”. All you needed to become eligible for testing was to display one symptom.

Now they have changed the criteria again.
Firstly, the list of symptoms has changed. Patients now have to have a fever and a symptom of respiratory disease, i.e. a cough or shortness of breath. Testing will also be carried out on those with respiratory symptoms who have been in contact with a confirmed or probable Covid-19 case in the days before symptoms onset.

If that bar is met, you must then fall into a list of priority categories, which include being a close contact of a confirmed case, a healthcare worker, an at risk group (those with diabetes, chronic lung disease, et cetera), household contacts of those at-risk groups, staff or residents in long-term care facilities, prison staff and inmates where self-isolation may be difficult and pregnant women.

JP Liz V1

Deleted User wrote: »

How many clusters associated with bars or restaurants?

Was Galway?

Gruffalux

I firmly believe that we had extremely high case numbers in March and April. Like 10,000 a day at peak. We came through that unknowingly in a way. It would horrify us now.
It is the only way we can attempt to match seroprevalance results with their implied numbers. (T cells would give numbers like 20,000, 30,000, even 40,000 as a daily tally back at peak if T cell theory is correct (though I await more evidence on the T cell theory). )

The lockdown brought the virus infections right down. The measures like masks, SD, hygiene etc are helping keep numbers down but what also helps is the virus itself is not rampant like it obviously eas becoming in February. Many Older people are still semi-cocooning. We have much lower numbers now. Really so much lower even though it sounds like 200 is a fifth of peak daily cases. It is more likely a fiftieth of peak daily cases. Really.
Much higher detection. Reflected in lower hospitalisations. Reflected in almost no deaths. We have done really well.

There is a recent uptick. Time will tell if it will veer towards the incredible growth rates we saw in March. Contributing factors are quite different now. Less ignorance. More systems in place. But exponential growth could still happen. No one knows. This is almost the only time I have ever wished I had a time machine. I would key in late November in the settings...

spookwoman

spookwoman wrote: »

One little thing about the testing criteria was way tighter back at the end of march so % would be higher

And the cases missed were multiples of what we are missing now. Why was so little attention payed on asymptomatic spread. We weren’t seeing any, only symptomatic contacts of confirmed cases were getting tested, and even then I know of a case where I work where 5 contacts of a case got some degree of symptoms, but only 1 one got tested, eventually, 8 days later and was negative. In all likelihood he had it.

That is why 80 cases 7 day average now is not that concerning if we arrest the growth in the next 10 days or so. In late March the true case numbers were in the thousands.

froog

Deleted User wrote: »

It’s happening in homes and workplaces. People visiting each other, and to some extent having party’s , and people working closely to each other with poor or inadequate ventilation such as meat plants and mushroom tunnels

so everywhere then?

Stheno

spookwoman wrote: »

Copied because its subscription to see published the 25th March

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/coronavirus-the-latest-major-adjustment-to-testing-eligibility-explained-1.4211788

Before March 12th, you had to be symptomatic and either be a close contact of a confirmed case of Covid-19 or to have travelled from an affected area.

Between that date and now, the testing criteria were significantly looser as the health services ramped up their strategy of “community testing”. All you needed to become eligible for testing was to display one symptom.

Now they have changed the criteria again.
Firstly, the list of symptoms has changed. Patients now have to have a fever and a symptom of respiratory disease, i.e. a cough or shortness of breath. Testing will also be carried out on those with respiratory symptoms who have been in contact with a confirmed or probable Covid-19 case in the days before symptoms onset.

If that bar is met, you must then fall into a list of priority categories, which include being a close contact of a confirmed case, a healthcare worker, an at risk group (those with diabetes, chronic lung disease, et cetera), household contacts of those at-risk groups, staff or residents in long-term care facilities, prison staff and inmates where self-isolation may be difficult and pregnant women.

I saw my doctor on March 9th with extremely bad sinusitius, cough, blocked nose/eyes/sore throat, tiredness

No temperature, so no test

Six months and three consultations later "you probably had covid in March, and you are seeing long term effects"

Still no temperature

Non solum non ambulabit

lee_baby_simms wrote: »

You had to be running a temp to get a test back then right? Surely that would drive the positivity rate way up.

Yes but also result in a huge amount of missed cases

drunkmonkey

Mushroom factory in Tipperary says number of asymptomatic positive results is a 'concern'
https://m.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/mushroom-factory-in-tipperary-says-number-of-asymptomatic-positive-results-is-a-concern-39457359.html

Mmm are we concerned a high number of people aren't sick, happier if they were? Not sure what to think...

lucernarian

Gruffalox wrote: »

I firmly believe that we had extremely high case numbers in March and April. Like 10,000 a day at peak. We came through that unknowingly in a way. It would horrify us now.
It is the only way we can attempt to match seroprevalance results with their implied numbers. (T cells would give numbers like 20,000, 30,000, even 40,000 as a daily tally back at peak if T cell theory is correct (though I await more evidence on the T cell theory). )

The lockdown brought the virus infections right down. The measures like masks, SD, hygiene etc are helping keep numbers down but what also helps is the virus itself is not rampant like it obviously eas becoming in February. Many Older people are still semi-cocooning. We have much lower numbers now. Really so much lower even though it sounds like 200 is a fifth of peak daily cases. It is more likely a fiftieth of peak daily cases. Really.
Much higher detection. Reflected in lower hospitalisations. Reflected in almost no deaths. We have done really well.

There is a recent uptick. Time will tell if it will veer towards the incredible growth rates we saw in March. Contributing factors are quite different now. Less ignorance. More systems in place. But exponential growth could still happen. No one knows. This is almost the only time I have ever wished I had a time machine. I would key in late November in the settings...

Great post by someone who knows what they're talking about.

spookwoman

Deleted User wrote: »

And the cases missed were multiples of what we are missing now. Why was so little attention payed on asymptomatic spread. We weren’t seeing any, only symptomatic contacts of confirmed cases were getting tested, and even then I know of a case where I work where 5 contacts of a case got some degree of symptoms, but only 1 one got tested, eventually, 8 days later and was negative. In all likelihood he had it.

That is why 80 cases 7 day average now is not that concerning if we arrest the growth in the next 10 days or so. In late March the true case numbers were in the thousands.

Don't know, it seems it was only the end of march they started on about asymptomatic people.
21st April HIQA published a report https://www.hiqa.ie/sites/default/files/2020-04/Evidence-summary-for-asymptomatic-transmission-of-COVID-19.pdf

caveat emptor

caveat emptor wrote: »

That’s great, I’m sure there is some nuance in the figure discrepancy.

That doesn’t explain Tipperary mushroom place.

Think it needs to be communicated. I don’t think it’s a conspiracy.

I think it’s trying to get a handle on it before they instill panic. If they announce 19 yesterday, 10 today, 20 tomorrow for example there will be lots of questions as to why tipp isn’t in lockdown. If they say tomorrow however there was a total of 49, everyone is tested and no secondary clusters, that’s a different story. Control the outbreak first through trace isolate and test and then act appropriately and finally communicate based on the next steps required

Goldengirl

Deleted User wrote: »

It’s happening in homes and workplaces. People visiting each other, and to some extent having party’s , and people working closely to each other with poor or inadequate ventilation such as meat plants and mushroom tunnels

Or migrant workers in these factories housed together in cramped conditions .

Imo this is why they are delaying the numbers from here .

froog

interesting u-turn on exam results across the water. it seems like they tried to stick all students into a bell curve or similar in dishing out grades. which is probably accurate in most years. after mass uproar and threats of litigation they will now return to teachers grades. students might end up in the same position now with university places as all grades will now almost certainly be overestimated by teachers scared to give bad results.

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/aug/17/a-levels-gcse-results-england-based-teacher-assessments-government-u-turn

Gruffalux

lucernarian wrote: »

Great post by someone who knows what they're talking about.

I don't. Just my opinion from how I see things. Could be wrong but I think it is logical.

Be right back

Stheno wrote: »

I saw my doctor on March 9th with extremely bad sinusitius, cough, blocked nose/eyes/sore throat, tiredness

No temperature, so no test

Six months and three consultations later "you probably had covid in March, and you are seeing long term effects"

Still no temperature

I was in close contact with a cluster, had mild symptoms (touch of a sore throat and a cough). No test, just told to isolate. This was in March as well.

spookwoman

spookwoman wrote: »

Copied because its subscription to see published the 25th March

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/coronavirus-the-latest-major-adjustment-to-testing-eligibility-explained-1.4211788

Before March 12th, you had to be symptomatic and either be a close contact of a confirmed case of Covid-19 or to have travelled from an affected area.

Between that date and now, the testing criteria were significantly looser as the health services ramped up their strategy of “community testing”. All you needed to become eligible for testing was to display one symptom.

Now they have changed the criteria again.
Firstly, the list of symptoms has changed. Patients now have to have a fever and a symptom of respiratory disease, i.e. a cough or shortness of breath. Testing will also be carried out on those with respiratory symptoms who have been in contact with a confirmed or probable Covid-19 case in the days before symptoms onset.

If that bar is met, you must then fall into a list of priority categories, which include being a close contact of a confirmed case, a healthcare worker, an at risk group (those with diabetes, chronic lung disease, et cetera), household contacts of those at-risk groups, staff or residents in long-term care facilities, prison staff and inmates where self-isolation may be difficult and pregnant women.

The criteria was loosened mid March, but the capacity wasn’t there and most referred were never tested for days sometimes up to 2 weeks later , that’s why it was significantly tightened again in April. Was only finally loosened in June

bennyl10

What do we realistically think is gonna be recommended tomorrow?
Nationwide lockdown? Or more localised measures?

Ban on alcohol sales?

froog

Stheno wrote: »

I saw my doctor on March 9th with extremely bad sinusitius, cough, blocked nose/eyes/sore throat, tiredness

No temperature, so no test

Six months and three consultations later "you probably had covid in March, and you are seeing long term effects"

Still no temperature

what the hell? find a new GP.

Frankie19

Yeah the Mushroom factory is a strange one. the Journal is reporting 29 positives from the factory albeit not all test results are back yet out of the 170 staff. Yet people on here seem to think positive number is alot higher from the factory.

GooglePlus

Stheno wrote: »

I saw my doctor on March 9th with extremely bad sinusitius, cough, blocked nose/eyes/sore throat, tiredness

No temperature, so no test

Six months and three consultations later "you probably had covid in March, and you are seeing long term effects"

Still no temperature

What are the long term effects that you're experiencing at the minute?

spookwoman

Be right back wrote: »

I was in close contact with a cluster, had mild symptoms (touch of a sore throat and a cough). No test, just told to isolate. This was in March as well.

1st april Back around then shortage of testing kits, long delays in getting results and only testing around 1,500 a day or so

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0401/1127767-coronavirus-ireland-testing/

tests per day from 14th march to 31st march
946
1469
1564
978
2631
1516
1775
3376
2941
2206
1616
1397
1928

iamwhoiam

Leo , Simon and Tony kept us all on our toes
Where is MM when the numbers are rising and anxiety increasing ?
No leadership , no one around who gives a toss

drunkmonkey

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Mushroom factory in Tipperary says number of asymptomatic positive results is a 'concern'
https://m.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/mushroom-factory-in-tipperary-says-number-of-asymptomatic-positive-results-is-a-concern-39457359.html

Mmm are we concerned a high number of people aren't sick, happier if they were? Not sure what to think...

The best thing about these clusters is the number of asymptomatic cases we are seeing. For one it tells us that we won’t expect the same number of negative outcomes as we saw when this cohort were not being tested. But also the amount of secondary clusters is also reduced as the onward transmissions from these cases are stopped

Stheno

froog wrote: »

what the hell? find a new GP.

It was the week they brought in the "must have a temperature and close contact" rule

No temperature meant no test, as did no close contacts, I had been working from home.

second consultation was for hayfever, third was when they declared I must have had it

Gael23

Case in a supermarket in Wexford today, staff member tested positive and told nobody, now another staff member has tested positive

drunkmonkey

Gael23 wrote: »

Case in a supermarket in Wexford today, staff member tested positive and told nobody, now another staff member has tested positive

They don't have to tell their employer, Absolutely bonkers they can have mandatory what ever they like but this is still happening.

Gruffalux

Gael23 wrote: »

Case in a supermarket in Wexford today, staff member tested positive and told nobody, now another staff member has tested positive

Though I don't know if this tale is true or not for the craic I googled "Covid notifiable disease" and got this quaint article from late February 2020 which feels like a different time/space continuum ago.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/harris-signs-order-to-designate-coronavirus-as-a-notifiable-disease-1.4180022?mode=amp

froog

froog wrote: »

interesting u-turn on exam results across the water. it seems like they tried to stick all students into a bell curve or similar in dishing out grades. which is probably accurate in most years. after mass uproar and threats of litigation they will now return to teachers grades. students might end up in the same position now with university places as all grades will now almost certainly be overestimated by teachers scared to give bad results.

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/aug/17/a-levels-gcse-results-england-based-teacher-assessments-government-u-turn

Very unfortunate for the class with the honest or tough teacher, or the individual who the teacher was consciously or unconsciously biased against.

My french teacher kept at me to go back to pass for the leaving. I believe she honestly believed I would struggle with the honours paper. Got a C1 and knew myself I would not have major trouble.

froog

bennyl10 wrote: »

What do we realistically think is gonna be recommended tomorrow?
Nationwide lockdown? Or more localised measures?

Ban on alcohol sales?

it's a difficult decision no question. we're not at the stage of full national lockdown yet, but certainly we need action as this will only get worse.

i think the smart move is a county travel ban nationwide (must remain in your home county) with garda checkpoints unless essential for your job so that if things get worse they can move to specific county lockdowns and contain an outbreak with high confidence it is already contained within that county. minimum disruption, most people won't even notice it and puts us in a strong position going forward. they hinted at this with the colour coded system last week.

some more workplace auditors for the HSA would also help.

and get much stricter with travel into the country. it's not an issue yet but why wait for it to be? i mean it's how we got the damn thing in the first place.

Boggles

Deleted User wrote: »

The Kilkee party and limerick cluster all linked to Cratloe. Local(s) went to the party in Kilkee with crowd from limerick and brought it back, apparently. Cases in lahinch too linked to the same party

Cratloe cluster was nothing to do with Kilkee.

That was a party for 15 year old ne'er do wells.

Cratloe traced to a party near UL.

Restaurant in Bunratty closed with apparent ties to Cratloe, a cluster (secondary) developed from the restaurant, which is now closed.

Deeper Blue

bennyl10 wrote: »

What do we realistically think is gonna be recommended tomorrow?
Nationwide lockdown? Or more localised measures?

Ban on alcohol sales?

Shutting the meat factories would be the sensible thing to do

So they'll probably close restaurants and hairdressers again

What Username Guidelines

Gruffalox wrote: »

I firmly believe that we had extremely high case numbers in March and April. Like 10,000 a day at peak. We came through that unknowingly in a way. It would horrify us now.
It is the only way we can attempt to match seroprevalance results with their implied numbers. (T cells would give numbers like 20,000, 30,000, even 40,000 as a daily tally back at peak if T cell theory is correct (though I await more evidence on the T cell theory). )

The lockdown brought the virus infections right down. The measures like masks, SD, hygiene etc are helping keep numbers down but what also helps is the virus itself is not rampant like it obviously eas becoming in February. Many Older people are still semi-cocooning. We have much lower numbers now. Really so much lower even though it sounds like 200 is a fifth of peak daily cases. It is more likely a fiftieth of peak daily cases. Really.
Much higher detection. Reflected in lower hospitalisations. Reflected in almost no deaths. We have done really well.

There is a recent uptick. Time will tell if it will veer towards the incredible growth rates we saw in March. Contributing factors are quite different now. Less ignorance. More systems in place. But exponential growth could still happen. No one knows. This is almost the only time I have ever wished I had a time machine. I would key in late November in the settings...

Great post. You’re right it would horrify us now. If we could somehow have seen all cases in March, we might in fact be relieved now to be seeing a tiny % rather than 20% of cases at peak..

It’s a rough estimate that doesn’t take into account age, but we’ve seen Saturday with ~20% of peak, but ICU is at 5% of peak and hospitalisations are at approx ~2% of peak. It’s even hard to work out the “just wait 2 weeks” as hospitalisations peaked on April 15th and cases 8 days later, rather than earlier. The dataset is messy but a conservative guess would be 5,000-6,000 at peak per day, perhaps many many more as per your post.

froog

Deleted User wrote: »

Very unfortunate for the class with the honest or tough teacher, or the individual who the teacher was consciously or unconsciously biased against.

My french teacher kept at me to go back to pass for the leaving. I believe she honestly believed I would struggle with the honours paper. Got a C1 and knew myself I would not have major trouble.

yeah there's no fair way of doing it other than a sit down exam. i honestly don't see the big problem with exams. leaving cert exams are always done in pretty good social distancing, everyone spaced at least 2 metres from each other to prevent cheating. most just turn up straight from home and go right to the seat. give people staggered arrival times and it's easily done.

froog

froog wrote: »

what the hell? find a new GP.

They had strict criteria. I know someone who returned from Austria at the start of March and had a temp and cough. Were told they were not a close contact of a confirmed case or had not been to Italy so we’re not eligible. They took about 5 days to recover and were tired for two weeks, but described it as somewhere between a bad cold and flu

Renjit

bennyl10 wrote: »

Ban on alcohol sales?

Why do you need ban on alcohol sales? One can drink at home as much as they want or in moderation at bar observing the guidelines.