Covid 19 Part XXI-27,908 in ROI (1,777 deaths) 6,647 in NI (559 deaths)(22/08)Read OP

Ll31

froog wrote: »

it's a difficult decision no question. we're not at the stage of full national lockdown yet, but certainly we need action as this will only get worse.

i think the smart move is a county travel ban nationwide (must remain in your home county) with garda checkpoints unless essential for your job so that if things get worse they can move to specific county lockdowns and contain an outbreak with high confidence it is already contained within that county. minimum disruption, most people won't even notice it and puts us in a strong position going forward. they hinted at this with the colour coded system last week.

some more workplace auditors for the HSA would also help.

and get much stricter with travel into the country. it's not an issue yet but why wait for it to be? i mean it's how we got the damn thing in the first place.

Would be a bit ridiculous after telling people to holiday at home continually.... to chge it to 'now you've just thrown your money away, tough. ' And how would u justify it using evidence?

froog

Stheno wrote: »

It was the week they brought in the "must have a temperature and close contact" rule

No temperature meant no test, as did no close contacts, I had been working from home.

second consultation was for hayfever, third was when they declared I must have had it

very unprofessional for them to say you probably had covid with long term effects though!

ninebeanrows

Just wondering how Matiu O’Tuathaill is still allowed on the radio ?

He has proven many times to be a complete and utter joker (finding words not to say liar)

Boggles

Gruffalox wrote: »

I firmly believe that we had extremely high case numbers in March and April. Like 10,000 a day at peak. We came through that unknowingly in a way. It would horrify us now.

If we had 10,000 cases a day for 2 months or even part of 2 months that would translate at the most conservative estimate to 100-200 hospitalizations a day.

It would have crashed emergency care.

Renjit

Deleted User wrote: »

They had strict criteria. I know someone who returned from Austria at the start of March and had a temp and cough. Were told they were not a close contact of a confirmed case or had not been to Italy so we’re not eligible. They took about 5 days to recover and were tired for two weeks, but described it as somewhere between a bad cold and flu

The current asymptomatic are because of more testing now and relaxed criteria.

PopTarts

Did someone say there is about 150 cases in Tipperary to be confirmed tomorrow or waiting results?

What numbers are we looking at tomorrow? I see they seem to be holding back numbers..

Goldengirl

Deleted User wrote: »

The best thing about these clusters is the number of asymptomatic cases we are seeing. For one it tells us that we won’t expect the same number of negative outcomes as we saw when this cohort were not being tested. But also the limo of secondary clusters is also reduced as the onward transmissions from these cases are stopped

Not really. More asymptomatic cases could mean more spread to others in community. Some of these could be a week into their infection and be just as infectious in those first few days , and no red flags like a temp or cough to slow them down.

At least symptomatic cases might restrict their contact as they feel unwell.

it is good that so many being picked up are asymptomatic , but this is happening where contacts are in effect , captive , as in a workplace setting.
it is not what is happening in the community cases , where so many close contacts are not going forward for testing .

Gael23

Gael23 wrote: »

Case in a supermarket in Wexford today, staff member tested positive and told nobody, now another staff member has tested positive

Should be gross misconduct. Not reporting a transmissible disease during a public health emergency.

spookwoman

iguana wrote: »

Where are the 18 in the mushroom factory? They were known about yesterday evening but not in yesterday’s figures and not in today’s.

Day behind, the 18 will show on the gov.ie report tomorrow. Same thing happened with waterford the other day.

expectationlost

Gael23 wrote: »

Case in a supermarket in Wexford today, staff member tested positive and told nobody, now another staff member has tested positive

case in wexford nursing home
https://t.co/J9hQttCH5q

Boggles

Boggles wrote: »

Cratloe cluster was nothing to do with Kilkee.

That was a party for 15 year old ne'er do wells.

Cratloe traced to a party near UL.

Restaurant in Bunratty closed with apparent ties to Cratloe, a cluster (secondary) developed from the restaurant, which is now closed.

Information I had was they were all linked through the kilkee party. But that’s from chatting to a few people from west Clare who seem to love nothing better than speculation about who got what from whom when and where

Gruffalux

Boggles wrote: »

If we had 10,000 cases a day for 2 months or even part of 2 months that would translate at the most conservative estimate to 100-200 hospitalizations a day.

It would have crashed emergency care.

It would depend on actual hospitalisation rate of actual numbers. We do not know that actual rate. You are suggesting 1 to 2% of cases there. Maybe it is much lower ? But regardless of how it does not make sense apparently, one has to find a way to squeeze 250, 000 cases into the time March to July 2020. As this is the preliminary reports of seroprevalence rate of covid antibodies as per testing.

Santy2015

The echo won’t say that there hasn’t been a case in cork over the last few days no?
https://www.echolive.ie/corknews/Covid-19-latest-further-rise-in-cases-in-Cork-7d9aba9c-75fe-46ad-aef3-1512bb0f1fa1-ds

ACitizenErased

Santy2015 wrote: »

The echo won’t say that there hasn’t been a case in cork over the last few days no?
https://www.echolive.ie/corknews/Covid-19-latest-further-rise-in-cases-in-Cork-7d9aba9c-75fe-46ad-aef3-1512bb0f1fa1-ds

Haven't had a case for last two days, only 2 day before that, and none the day before that.

The HorsesMouth

Boggles wrote: »

If we had 10,000 cases a day for 2 months or even part of 2 months that would translate at the most conservative estimate to 100-200 hospitalizations a day.

It would have crashed emergency care.

Not if the extra 9000 cases a day were asymptomatic so therefore people didn't get tested.

We didn't know the big picture back then.

froog

froog wrote: »

yeah there's no fair way of doing it other than a sit down exam. i honestly don't see the big problem with exams. leaving cert exams are always done in pretty good social distancing, everyone spaced at least 2 metres from each other to prevent cheating. most just turn up straight from home and go right to the seat. give people staggered arrival times and it's easily done.

Surely seen as schools were empty that could have spaced the students out over the entire school With a handful per classroom and used the teachers to supervise. Would have been far better than what we have now.

fritzelly

iamwhoiam wrote: »

Leo , Simon and Tony kept us all on our toes
Where is MM when the numbers are rising and anxiety increasing ?
No leadership , no one around who gives a toss

Is MM still walking the wild atlantic way?

Gruffalux

Boggles wrote: »

If we had 10,000 cases a day for 2 months or even part of 2 months that would translate at the most conservative estimate to 100-200 hospitalizations a day.

It would have crashed emergency care.

Plus I said 10000 at absolute peak. Ie that one day. 8000 another. 5000 400 etc. One could simply multiply all previous cases in a day by 9 or 10. And that would give the up and down.

Goldengirl

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

Just wondering how Matiu O’Tuathaill is still allowed on the radio ?

He has proven many times to be a complete and utter joker (finding words not to say liar)

what has he done to upset you?

ixoy

I'm heading for a holiday on Wednesday morning (in Ireland) so really hoping there's nothing overly negative tomorrow in terms of closure giving me next to no notice to cancel bookings. I'm surprised there's no hints or anything yet.

Boggles

Gruffalox wrote: »

It would depend on actual hospitalisation rate of actual numbers. We do not know that actual rate. You are suggesting 1 to 2% of cases there. Maybe it is much lower ?

We have a higher hospitalization rate at the moment and it's largely under 45s being infected.

gifted

fritzelly wrote: »

Is MM still walking Away?

Fixed your post there

KrustyUCC

Santy2015 wrote: »

The echo won’t say that there hasn’t been a case in cork over the last few days no?
https://www.echolive.ie/corknews/Covid-19-latest-further-rise-in-cases-in-Cork-7d9aba9c-75fe-46ad-aef3-1512bb0f1fa1-ds

Nah they have to take the doom and gloom angle

spookwoman

Cork number since start of month to the 15th
1567 0
1569 2
1570 1
1572 2
1575 3
1575 0
1582 7
1582 0
1585 3
1587 2
1587 0
1589 2
1592 3
1595 3
1595 0

caveat emptor

Gruffalox wrote: »

I firmly believe that we had extremely high case numbers in March and April. Like 10,000 a day at peak. We came through that unknowingly in a way. It would horrify us now.
It is the only way we can attempt to match seroprevalance results with their implied numbers. (T cells would give numbers like 20,000, 30,000, even 40,000 as a daily tally back at peak if T cell theory is correct (though I await more evidence on the T cell theory). )

The lockdown brought the virus infections right down. The measures like masks, SD, hygiene etc are helping keep numbers down but what also helps is the virus itself is not rampant like it obviously eas becoming in February. Many Older people are still semi-cocooning. We have much lower numbers now. Really so much lower even though it sounds like 200 is a fifth of peak daily cases. It is more likely a fiftieth of peak daily cases. Really.
Much higher detection. Reflected in lower hospitalisations. Reflected in almost no deaths. We have done really well.

There is a recent uptick. Time will tell if it will veer towards the incredible growth rates we saw in March. Contributing factors are quite different now. Less ignorance. More systems in place. But exponential growth could still happen. No one knows. This is almost the only time I have ever wished I had a time machine. I would key in late November in the settings...

For sure testing was deliberately repressed via non realistic screening criteria and numbers far higher than reported.
This Is however pure speculation with t-cell thrown in to sound more credible.

Keep playing to the gallery and we shall see what the winter brings. The trend is fairly clear even with all the measures adopted and it's not even September. Hoping the A-team t-cells come out in force and save us from the pandemic.

Goldengirl

Goldengirl wrote: »

Not really. More asymptomatic cases could mean more spread to others in community. Some of these could be a week into their infection and be just as infectious in those first few days , and no red flags like a temp or cough to slow them down.

At least symptomatic cases might restrict their contact as they feel unwell.

it is good that so many being picked up are asymptomatic , but this is happening where contacts are in effect , captive , as in a workplace setting.
it is not what is happening in the community cases , where so many close contacts are not going forward for testing .

Not very much transmission occurs outside of enclosed environments for a sustained period of time, or those who don’t meet the 2metre 15 min rule. If we controlled all spread except the ones that occur from brief contact, where most are wearing masks anyway, there would be no virus in a short time

MOR316

ixoy wrote: »

I'm heading for a holiday on Wednesday morning (in Ireland) so really hoping there's nothing overly negative tomorrow in terms of closure giving me next to no notice to cancel bookings. I'm surprised there's no hints or anything yet.

There would have been a leak by now if they were going to do that

Gael23

drunkmonkey wrote: »

They don't have to tell their employer, Absolutely bonkers they can have mandatory what ever they like but this is still happening.

If if it had been a staff member in a nursing home it could have cost lives

eagle eye

One thing people seem to be forgetting when they are comparing April and March to now is the limited number of tests back then and the high percentage of people being tested almost certainly having it.

We got to a great place about six weeks ago. If we didn't change anything we'd still be there. Gotta roll things back to where they were then. The big issue is the money men who don't like people being at home not producing for them. They want their cash regardless and if a few hundred thousand extra die worldwide they don't care.

People need to get away from letting money rule their lives. As long as you do that you aren't really having a great life.

I'm one of those being very careful and being mixed up with a doom monger on occasion. I have hope that things will eventually be sorted but I'm thinking it'll be next March or April unfortunately. You need to get the government to a position where they have no choice but to bend to the will of the people and we aren't there yet. It'll take another cluster**** or three before they feel obliged to do the right thing. Then we can get on the right path and finally get rid of this thing.

And for anybody saying that becoming Covid free is pie in the sky. You to me are the type of person that gives up. It's clearly possible and it just takes everybody working off the same hymn sheet to make it happen.

Goldengirl

Deleted User wrote: »

Not very much transmission occurs outside of enclosed environments for a sustained period of time, or those who don’t meet the 2metre 15 min rule. If we controlled all spread except the ones that occur from brief contact, where most are wearing masks anyway, there would be no virus in a short time

Yes , assuming those are adhering to the guidelines outside of work?

KrustyUCC

MOR316 wrote: »

There would have been a leak by now if they were going to do that

Hope you're right

They can't really have hotels open, no tourists and Irish people on a travel ban

Might as well just shut hotels and restaurants again

Gruffalux

Boggles wrote: »

We have a higher hospitalization rate at the moment and it's largely under 45s being infected.

You are still going by thinking I say 10000 cases daily. I do not.
Plus IFR that comes up again and again is about 0.65%. 1800 as percent of 250000 is 0.72%


So the deaths number adds up to about the presumptive case number of seroprevalence rate if one accepts the oft found IFR.

And to squeeze in those cases needs our reported numbers x 9 daily in the past.

JP Liz V1

fritzelly wrote: »

Is MM still walking the wild atlantic way?

gifted wrote: »

Fixed your post there

I read something else than walking

froog

Deleted User wrote: »

Surely seen as schools were empty that could have spaced the students out over the entire school With a handful per classroom and used the teachers to supervise. Would have been far better than what we have now.

yup. they well and truly dropped the ball with that one.

Boggles

Boggles wrote: »

If we had 10,000 cases a day for 2 months or even part of 2 months that would translate at the most conservative estimate to 100-200 hospitalizations a day.

It would have crashed emergency care.

Many studies are converging on an ifr of 0.65%, which were it to hold true for us, implies about 270,000 cases. The preliminary details on serology testing also suggested c240,000 infections. Given the older population have borne the brunt it may be a bit lower, but I would find it hard to go much lower than 200k based on what we know both globally and within Ireland, especially as these studies come from areas with similar demographics and issues with care homes. Add up to 200,000 cases to our numbers and apply a similar distribution to chat we have seen and you would not be too far of a 10k peak

political analyst

eagle eye wrote: »

One thing people seem to be forgetting when they are comparing April and March to now is the limited number of tests back then and the high percentage of people being tested almost certainly having it.

We got to a great place about six weeks ago. If we didn't change anything we'd still be there. Gotta roll things back to where they were then. The big issue is the money men who don't like people being at home not producing for them. They want their cash regardless and if a few hundred thousand extra die worldwide they don't care.

People need to get away from letting money rule their lives. As long as you do that you aren't really having a great life.

I'm one of those being very careful and being mixed up with a doom monger on occasion. I have hope that things will eventually be sorted but I'm thinking it'll be next March or April unfortunately. You need to get the government to a position where they have no choice but to bend to the will of the people and we aren't there yet. It'll take another cluster**** or three before they feel obliged to do the right thing. Then we can get on the right path and finally get rid of this thing.

And for anybody saying that becoming Covid free is pie in the sky. You to me are the type of person that gives up. It's clearly possible and it just takes everybody working off the same hymn sheet to make it happen.

The mortality rate for Covid is very low. This pandemic is not of Ebola proportions.

podgeandrodge

brendanwalsh wrote: »

It’s disingenuous to say we have to accept numbers at this level and this is a level the hospitals can manage.

Despite months and months of research, there is still almost zero treatments available for anyone who gets this and becomes unwell other than supportive care.

Remdesivir does not affect mortality.

Steroids may have some role but these are often given anyway in iCU setting when patients are so ill anyway their adrenals are shut down.

There is no treatment. No cure.

We cannot let this virus rip through our most vulnerable just because we are all tired and want life to be normal again.

Some might say it has ripped through a lot of our most vulnerable at this stage. I don't think society long term will continue to accept restrictions to protect the vulnerable, but will move to place more responsibility on the vulnerable to protect themselves, selfish as that sounds, that's what society will do long term if there is no vaccine.

podgeandrodge

eagle eye wrote: »

I don't give a toss about thanks. I'll always speak my mind whether it's a popular opinion or not.

Right now I'm not very popular because I'm against the schools reopening because it's only going to lead to a big outbreak of covid-19.

I suppose when you say things like that anybody with half a brain can see what will happen when the schools reopen then it kinda doesn't make you popular.

Anyways I'm glad to have many guinea pigs who are going to test out the school set up and I'll send mine back when it's proven safe. That'll probably be around March or April next year is my thinking on it.

I agree with you for once!

podgeandrodge

upupup wrote: »

There is also a case in cahir meat factory that was not added and this will probably lead to more testing and cases
https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/munster/arid-40033649.html

I couldn't cahir less.

Gruffalux

caveat emptor wrote: »

For sure testing was deliberately repressed via non realistic screening criteria and numbers far higher than reported.
This Is however pure speculation with t-cell thrown in to sound more credible.

Keep playing to the gallery and we shall see what the winter brings. The trend is fairly clear even with all the measures adopted and it's not even September. Hoping the A-team t-cells come out in force and save us from the pandemic.

What fecking gallery?

I have said numerous times Im on the fence re T cells. I put it in as "Ah but T cells etc..." is a favoured response.

I am just doing sums. The sums make sense to me. It is not an attempt to belittle covid danger. I think it is a nasty disease that left run rampant would kill 0.65% of the people who get it, and a lot would get it as it is a novel virus and very contagious.

But I also believe in truth and logic. And logically the numbers are very low now compared to when we locked down during exponential growth.

stephenjmcd

HSE Operations report

18 paitents with confirmed covid in hosptial, down 1 from yesterday.

8 of those in ICU (No Change) , 4 on ventilators (down 1), no ICU deaths recorded.

2 cases confirmed in hospitals today, 1 in Tallaght, 1 in Drogheda

Dayor Knight

iamwhoiam wrote: »

Leo , Simon and Tony kept us all on our toes
Where is MM when the numbers are rising and anxiety increasing ?
No leadership , no one around who gives a toss

Yes, and and Leo accelerated us out of the restrictions just before he handed over the reins to MM. Nice move that, intended to make himself look good, knowing that MM would have to deal with the bad news once the numbers started getting bad again. I.m.o.

political analyst

eagle eye wrote: »

We got to a great place about six weeks ago. If we didn't change anything we'd still be there. Gotta roll things back to where they were then. The big issue is the money men who don't like people being at home not producing for them. They want their cash regardless and if a few hundred thousand extra die worldwide they don't care.

People need to get away from letting money rule their lives. As long as you do that you aren't really having a great life.

And how do you think the health service is funded? By bartering?! :rolleyes:

eagle eye

eagle eye wrote: »

One thing people seem to be forgetting when they are comparing April and March to now is the limited number of tests back then and the high percentage of people being tested almost certainly having it.

We got to a great place about six weeks ago. If we didn't change anything we'd still be there. Gotta roll things back to where they were then. The big issue is the money men who don't like people being at home not producing for them. They want their cash regardless and if a few hundred thousand extra die worldwide they don't care.

People need to get away from letting money rule their lives. As long as you do that you aren't really having a great life.

I'm one of those being very careful and being mixed up with a doom monger on occasion. I have hope that things will eventually be sorted but I'm thinking it'll be next March or April unfortunately. You need to get the government to a position where they have no choice but to bend to the will of the people and we aren't there yet. It'll take another cluster**** or three before they feel obliged to do the right thing. Then we can get on the right path and finally get rid of this thing.

And for anybody saying that becoming Covid free is pie in the sky. You to me are the type of person that gives up. It's clearly possible and it just takes everybody working off the same hymn sheet to make it happen.

The very low rate of asymptomatic cases from back then tells us we we missing far more than detecting. Symptomatic people also found it very difficult to get a test. It is without doubt that we were only detecting a small proportion of cases

stephenjmcd

stephenjmcd wrote: »

HSE Operations report

18 paitents with confirmed covid in hosptial, down 1 from yesterday.

8 of those in ICU (No Change) , 4 on ventilators (down 1), no ICU deaths recorded.

2 cases confirmed in hospitals today, 1 in Tallaght, 1 in Drogheda

That’s 2 out of 136 suspected cases yes?

Beanybabog

[Deleted User] wrote: »

That’s 2 out of 136 suspected cases yes?

I don’t think so- I think the 136 are the leftovers. Like plenty more people admitted to hospital for various reasons were tested with very fast results- I think the 136 are the ones with no results in yet. (Someone explained it on the thread recently and I think that’s how it works)

iguana

upupup wrote: »

There is also a case in cahir meat factory that was not added and this will probably lead to more testing and cases
https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/munster/arid-40033649.html

There was but as far as I know the cases announced each evening were the number of case up to midday each day. So the case in Cahir may not have come to light until after midday and should be included in tomorrow's figures. The 18 additional cases in Golden were confirmed by a local TD yesterday evening, so absolutely should have been included in this evening's figures.

normanoffside

iamwhoiam wrote: »

Leo , Simon and Tony kept us all on our toes
Where is MM when the numbers are rising and anxiety increasing ?
No leadership , no one around who gives a toss

As much as I disliked some of the decisions of the old regime, I have to say the new regime is terrible.
They are woeful communicators, really really woeful.

mloc123

Boggles wrote: »

If we had 10,000 cases a day for 2 months or even part of 2 months that would translate at the most conservative estimate to 100-200 hospitalizations a day.

It would have crashed emergency care.

We HAD 1-200 admissions a day in April

tabby aspreme

Frankie19 wrote: »

Yeah the Mushroom factory is a strange one. the Journal is reporting 29 positives from the factory albeit not all test results are back yet out of the 170 staff. Yet people on here seem to think positive number is alot higher from the factory.

The artificial climate in the mushroom growing houses, would be ideal for spreading the virus.