Covid 19 Part XXI-27,908 in ROI (1,777 deaths) 6,647 in NI (559 deaths)(22/08)Read OP

Sweet.Science

Sweet.Science wrote: »

We should do a UK on it . Stop testing in these meat plants etc . Only test if someone has symptoms . This has gone beyond stupid now. WHat happened to flattening the curve , we have to learn to live with it etc

The sweep it under the carpet approach. Every mild or asymptomatic case we find is a good thing not a bad thing. The other option is do as you say and not test and find the problem as hospitals start to come under pressure as was the case in March

stephenjmcd

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Independent article says its outdoor gatherings at home, i.e your back garden, again house parties.

Not outdoor sports gatherings

Are you sure as it also mentions 6 people can congregate at a house from a max of 3 households.

Widdensushi

Deleted User wrote: »

The sweep it under the carpet approach. Every mild or asymptomatic case we find is a good thing not a bad thing. The other option is do as you say and not test and find the problem as hospitals start to come under pressure as was the case in March

How is it a good thing, if someone gets the mild strain they get immunity from the stronger strain

owlbethere

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Independent article says its outdoor gatherings at home, i.e your back garden, again house parties.

Not outdoor sports gatherings

Thanks for clearing that up. How will that be enforced?

MickeyLeari

Widdensushi wrote: »

How is it a good thing, if someone gets the mild strain they get immunity from the stronger strain

I would say that they are being picked up and people can then take measures to restrict movements. Of course one can also determine that picking up such cases mean it is active in the community and a new lockdown is needed.

hmmm

owlbethere wrote: »

The majority of the rising cases is linked to the work and factory cases. What good will it do asking older people to restrict their movements? I presume a lot of older people are now pension age and not working within a cluster.

The majority of detected cases are in work & factories.

I don't know what NPHET are recommending, but these cases don't just arrive out of nowhere. Someone has picked it up outside the factory, and has brought it in. Inside it spreads rapidly, and it is then sent back out into the community.

The key thing is to stop the rise in cases, and even anecdotally we are hearing of cases popping up throughout the country.

I agree our capability is much improved since March, but it also relies on every individual doing their bit to reduce risk as well (note - reduce, not hide inside).

Widdensushi

Widdensushi wrote: »

How is it a good thing, if someone gets the mild strain they get immunity from the stronger strain

Its not a mild strain and a strong stain, its a mild/ no disease or a serious disease. There is only 1 strain as serious / mild / asymptomatic cases come out of the same clusters.

And detecting as many of the real infections as possible is a good thing. Its obviously better when there are none, but when there are, detect as many as possible

Loafing Oaf

Widdensushi wrote: »

How is it a good thing

Because you can (hopefully) get that person to self-isolate and prevent them infecting others

AlmightyCushion

Widdensushi wrote: »

How is it a good thing, if someone gets the mild strain they get immunity from the stronger strain

There is no mild or stronger strain. Being asymptomatic doesn't mean you have a weaker strain and thus, it is safe to pass on to someone else.

Renjit

JTMan wrote: »

Irish Independent reports:

- Older people to be asked to restrict movements.
- Outdoor gatherings to be limited to 15 people.
- Work from home to be required for those that can work from home. i.e. offices to re-close unless staff cannot work from home.
- Max 6 people in a home from max 3 households

Very serious NPHET concerns ahead of school reopenings.

Looks like kids had so much fun. Working class has to deal with it. Kids will have cereal back on the breakfast menu now.

rob316

owlbethere wrote: »

Thanks for clearing that up. How will that be enforced?

Drones flying over your home. Violators will be removed then.

Renjit

celt262 wrote: »

I have no intention of working from home again I did it for 3 months and was near breaking point at end of it. I can go into the office and not be in close contact with anyone from morning till evening.

You should if you can and your employer should recommend that too. I have been working from home since March. Even though the employer has started with reduced capacity (by booking), there is little interest in people going back considering the risk vs reward.

stephenjmcd

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

Are you sure as it also mentions 6 people can congregate at a house from a max of 3 households.

With regards to indoor gatherings in a house.

Its completely wishy-washy

stephenjmcd

owlbethere wrote: »

Thanks for clearing that up. How will that be enforced?

Realistically it can't be, your relying on people to do it themselves

Renjit

owlbethere wrote: »

The majority of the rising cases is linked to the work and factory cases. What good will it do asking older people to restrict their movements? I presume a lot of older people are now pension age and not working within a cluster.

The idea is to limit the spread. Majority workers will be taking it to their homes and community if not controlled. Additionally, you have community transmission which we may not know more about.

seamus

podgeandrodge wrote: »

Based on what thinking seamus?

Minimisation of risk. It would be naive to think there aren't outbreaks in other meat factories. The risk is low, but so is the cost. Avoiding them for a few weeks no big deal.
If someone really can't live without ham slices in their sandwiches, cooking their own and keeping it in the fridge isn't an ordeal.

polesheep

Kh1993 wrote: »

It’s probably been refused before and for privacy reasons etc, but it would be a good idea if the minutes of NPHETs latest meeting were published.

It’d be interesting to see the rationale behind the latest restrictions, because to the average person here they don’t make sense. We all know they won’t be widely observed either. As someone mentioned, the people who watch the pressers, they’re not the people having house parties and massive gatherings. They’re already worried enough.

We need more than that. We need to know who has skin in the game. It wasn't until Dr. Holohan stepped away that we learned that his wife is in an extremely vulnerable category, which had to have influenced his objectivity. How many on NPHET have vulnerable family members that they are particularly concerned about? No journalist has looked at the likes of Killeen to see what motivates scientists like him to drive a restrictive agenda.

caveat emptor

Deleted User wrote: »

That's why the advice is 2m where possible. If we do it most of the time, the impact of where we cant will not have a huge impact. And 2m is not a huge distance

That essentially translates to "don't catch it unless you can't in which case you might catch it"

I agree 2m is not a huge distance but it is hard to maintain. Most people I know have not observed it. Literally nobody I know maintained that at anytime throughout this.

The aggregate of all of these micro decisions of people are resulting in uptick in cases. We are so focused on rules that apply to others but not us.
Every other country has fines. Not because they need money because they realise that there is a selfish element in every society that will undermine the hard work of 80% plus of the population.

We can't compare ourselves to Scandinavian or pacific countries as we don't have the discipline or political will to combat this. I include myself in this assessment too. I didn't stick to the letter of the rules. Pretending we all did is just burying our heads in the sand. If there was a fine I expect that would increase compliance and lead to lower transmission but we didn't. This is going to be a painful adjustment until a vaccine or effective treatment becomes available. I don't think either are on the horizon for now.

stephenjmcd

stephenjmcd wrote: »

With regards to indoor gatherings in a house.

Its completely wishy-washy

Do they expect the other 7 people on the property to pee on the rose bushes?

Renjit

Hego Damask wrote: »

https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-08-18/spain-reports-37000-new-coronavirus-infections-in-the-last-week.html

37,000 cases in one week, almost at March/April levels, death rate far far less ....


life is going on.

That's because testing parameters are relaxed. Earlier, you would not get tested even if you showed symptoms unless you fir the narrow criteria. We seems to be at the early levels now even though the reported numbers are large.

Oranage2

The 6 max in a house is a guideline to help stop the spread and any decent human will follow it. The way people are making it to be some north Korean type human right violation

brick tamland

We need stronger controls on borders and people coming in as well as tighter rules in workplaces rather than these daft restrictions.

These outbreaks were surely caused by workers going to their home country's and returning to work without quarantine and living/socialising in close proximity with fellow workers. These new controls offer nothing to protect against that (not that they can be enforced anyway).

These factory owners/management need to be made more accountable for who they have working too.

ThunbergsAreGo

Renjit wrote: »

The idea is to limit the spread. Majority workers will be taking it to their homes and community if not controlled. Additionally, you have community transmission which we may not know more about.

But this was always the case.

We were always going to see an increase, due to increased capacity for testing and opening up again.

None of this is unexpected

Oranage2

Oranage2 wrote: »

The 6 max in a house is a guideline to help stop the spread and any decent human will follow it. The way people are making it to be some north Korean type human right violation

I just don’t understand why they have 6 inside the house and 15 in the garden. What if 8 people outside need the loo?

celt262

Renjit wrote: »

You should if you can and your employer should recommend that too. I have been working from home since March. Even though the employer has started with reduced capacity (by booking), there is little interest in people going back considering the risk vs reward.

There is very little risk for me going into the office it's more of a risk going into Dunnes to do the weekly shop or filling up the car with diesel. The effects it was having on my mental health was more worrying for me than catching the virus in work. I go in the front door sanatise my hands and up the stairs where there is more sanatiser and then into my office where i see nobody unless i go to the canteen which is large enough for social distancing and is well setup.

Eod100

So Cabinet ask NPHET to consider further measures and then object to the measures recommended? What did they expect to happen?!

Renjit

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

Do they expect the other 7 people on the property to pee on the rose bushes?

They can enjoy some strawberry milkshake instead :pac:

Renjit

Renjit wrote: »

They can enjoy some strawberry milkshake instead :pac:

Haha. Fertilise the strawberry patch with a No2

GooglePlus

Renjit wrote: »

That's because testing parameters are relaxed. Earlier, you would not get tested even if you showed symptoms unless you fir the narrow criteria. We seems to be at the early levels now even though the reported numbers are large.

This is exacty it.

People are seeing the large case numbers coming in alongside the low death number and thinking the virus has become less deadly but in reality, we are testing way more and picking up the cases we didn't back in January/February.

Once this takes hold, we'll see hospital numbers increase to early year figures along with deaths, unfortunately.

Renjit

ThunbergsAreGo wrote: »

But this was always the case.

We were always going to see an increase, due to increased capacity for testing and opening up again.

None of this is unexpected

I think government officials know something that we do not. Perhaps they have lost the track of community transmission cases.

seamus

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

I just don’t understand why they have 6 inside the house and 15 in the garden. What if 8 people outside need the loo?

They can go home. It's not supposed to be a party, it's supposed to be small gatherings.

This was specifically called out as the issue with BBQs/house parties months ago. When they talk about "gatherings" they're not talking about 6pm till 2am eating and drinking. They're talking about arriving for dinner at 6 and going home at 8.

You can also use your head. My mother-in-law for example has a utility room door that allows access to a toilet without having to walk through the house. Most people don't have this luxury, but you can pre-plan your facilities before people arrive - make a clear route to a toilet that limits interaction and ask people to wipe down surfaces after use.

The measures they're looking at are primarily to keep hospitalisations down while we're in this grey period. We just don't know what the critical numbers will be when younger people get the virus, like they have now. If we can see cases rise by 1,000 a week and not see 200 people end up in hospital, then that informs the next steps of our response. Asking older people to limit their movements and visitors might be the game plan for the next 18 months.

How long have we got till flu season takes hold, 6 weeks?

Dempo1

Perhaps I am wrong but there's a definite changing of the narrative forming, this new government seems all over the place there's quite some mixed messaging afoot. I've noticed also a subtle delay in releasing daily figures, used to be out around 5.30pm, yesterday they were not released until well after main evening news, also no press conference yesterday after NPHET met.

I get a sense there is no coherent approach to this pandemic and its resurgence with only one item the focus of attention, opening schools

Very telling , a story in this mornings indo with a split appearing and interestingly its FG ministers stirring it against NPHET and in particular against the acting CMO

Quote
"The senior minister also raised concerns about the interaction between Government and Nphet since Chief Medical Officer Dr Tony Holohan and was replaced by Dr Ronan Glynn.

"When Tony was there none of the letters were written without being discussed or agreed with government first," the source added."

This does not Bode well

Sweet.Science

[Deleted User] wrote: »

The sweep it under the carpet approach. Every mild or asymptomatic case we find is a good thing not a bad thing. The other option is do as you say and not test and find the problem as hospitals start to come under pressure as was the case in March

Fair enough . Let's stop treating these new cases like armageddon so . Let's just get on with life

There are 18 people in the whole country in hospital with covid . We have capacity for 1000

Why are people panicking. Let's get back to normal

lee_baby_simms

GooglePlus wrote: »

This is exact it.

People are seeing the large case numbers coming in alongside the low death number and thinking the virus has become less deadly but in reality, we are testing way more and picking up the cases we didn't back in January/February.

Once this takes hold, we'll see hospital numbers increase to early year figures along with deaths, unfortunately.

I hope to god you're right otherwise current measures are a disproportionate response of the highest order.

@seamus

@seamus

It’s been years since there’s been a gathering at my folks house so doesn’t apply to me. I’m just posing a “what if”

froog

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0818/1159742-cabinet-covid/


Prof Kennelly also said the biggest risk to nursing home residents is that clusters will spill over into the community and infect staff who will bring it in to the nursing home environment. 

He said that several nursing homes have, for the first time in months, identified staff with positive tests for Covid-19 in the last few weeks.

GooglePlus

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

How long have we got till flu season takes hold, 6 weeks?

Think it depends year to year based on the weather conditions. My GP told me November was early when I got the flu last year at that time.

GooglePlus

lee_baby_simms wrote: »

I hope to god you're right otherwise current measures are a disproportionate response of the highest order.

I hope to god I'm wrong!

GooglePlus

GooglePlus wrote: »

Think it depends year to year based on the weather conditions. My GP told me November was early when I got the flu last year at that time.

I’m saving my FP3 mask for then.

Eod100

Is there any word on when the results of the antibody testing HSE is doing since June will be out? Would be curious to know asymptomatic spread up to now. Also this year government should offer a subsidised flu vaccine to reduce impact on GPs and hospitals. Know there was talks of expanding free vaccine to certain cohorts but need to do more.

froog

lee_baby_simms wrote: »

I hope to god you're right otherwise current measures are a disproportionate response of the highest order.

Our current measures are basically no very large crowds and no pubs. Hardly disproportionate to anything.

stephenjmcd

Oranage2 wrote: »

The 6 max in a house is a guideline to help stop the spread and any decent human will follow it. The way people are making it to be some north Korean type human right violation

House parties went on during lockdown when nobody was supposed to be in other peoples houses, they'll still go on now regardless of what the limit is.

seamus

GooglePlus wrote: »

I hope to god I'm wrong!

As I mention above, we just don't know right now. The majority of new cases for the last month have been people under 45. For the time being we're not seeing any major jump in hospitalisations, which is good. But we have to be cautious and see how it pans out. If it does turn out that the hospitalisation rates for younger people is fractions of a percent, then we have quite a clear path forward on how to keep this thing under control.

It's never really been about ensuring nobody gets the virus. It's about trying to prevent hospitals being overrun and saving lives.

If we can "get back to normal" with simple restrictions like social distancing and hygiene, and by telling the elderly to limit their movements, then that's probably what we'll do in the long term.

Of course, that's the hard part. How do you say, "everyone under 60 is grand, above that look after yourself"? The two groups will mix, constantly. There's no way for it be rampant in the under-45s and not have it explode in the over-60s.

Dempo1

Sweet.Science wrote: »

Fair enough . Let's stop treating these new cases like armageddon so . Let's just get on with life

There are 18 people in the whole country in hospital with covid . We have capacity for 1000

Why are people panicking. Let's get back to normal

I'd have to respectively disagree with the assertion capacity is all nice and dandy, I've had to use a public hospital recently and they are barely functioning still after the bizzare decision to practically close them down.

There's one thing the government is right about, and that's worrying about capacity, THE HSE have essentially created a nightmare whereby if there was a surge, it would be unsustainable, I speak from personal experience being one of 3 patients in an A&E ward in the middle of main lockdown (emergency, broke ankle), it was the most surreal experience ever. Great care etc but seeing one of the largest hospitals in the country abandoned was shocking. Operated on in a different private hospital because of restrictions and I've seen first hand with after care, one hospital not nearly ready by a long shot, still at best operating at 50% some 6 weeks after main lock down ended

growleaves

ThunbergsAreGo wrote: »

Its actually not really like March 2020. We have a much larger testing capacity and are catching way more asymptomatic cases than before. We are catching cases that would never have been tested in March.

Everything is actually working as expected - we are catching and containing cases rather well. A rise was always going to happen with opening back up, and worsening weather.

Temperatures haven't worsened, rain or no rain. We are at the height of the Irish summer.

caveat emptor

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

How long have we got till flu season takes hold, 6 weeks?

GooglePlus wrote: »

Think it depends year to year based on the weather conditions. My GP told me November was early when I got the flu last year at that time.

Yeah it is fairly regular. It should be dampened by the measures taken throughout the world (especially china) from whence it usually comes. In the report below you can see the week number and the peak is slightly different each year. You can find the weekly reports here.

• last year peak was December
• year before end of jan /feb
• 2 years before end of jan feb

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/influenza/seasonalinfluenza/surveillance/influenzasurveillancereports/20192020season/

Eod100

stephenjmcd wrote: »

House parties went on during lockdown when nobody was supposed to be in other peoples houses, they'll still go on now regardless of what the limit is.

Especially when Gardai seemingly have no power to enforce. Not sure why they haven't been granted temporary emergency power to break up parties if over the limit.

caveat emptor

caveat emptor wrote: »

That essentially translates to "don't catch it unless you can't in which case you might catch it"

I agree 2m is not a huge distance but it is hard to maintain. Most people I know have not observed it. Literally nobody I know maintained that at anytime throughout this.

The aggregate of all of these micro decisions of people are resulting in uptick in cases. We are so focused on rules that apply to others but not us.
Every other country has fines. Not because they need money because they realise that there is a selfish element in every society that will undermine the hard work of 80% plus of the population.

We can't compare ourselves to Scandinavian or pacific countries as we don't have the discipline or political will to combat this. I include myself in this assessment too. I didn't stick to the letter of the rules. Pretending we all did is just burying our heads in the sand. If there was a fine I expect that would increase compliance and lead to lower transmission but we didn't. This is going to be a painful adjustment until a vaccine or effective treatment becomes available. I don't think either are on the horizon for now.

Assume a long term reproduction rate of 3, reduce transmissions by 70% and R0 cannot remain above 1. That's the goal

I’m still hoping to wake up with a hangover and realise it’s January 1st, 2020.

Bobby Ewing in the shower kinda thing