Covid 19 Part XXI-27,908 in ROI (1,777 deaths) 6,647 in NI (559 deaths)(22/08)Read OP

smellyoldboot

seamus wrote: »

They can go home. It's not supposed to be a party, it's supposed to be small gatherings.

This was specifically called out as the issue with BBQs/house parties months ago. When they talk about "gatherings" they're not talking about 6pm till 2am eating and drinking. They're talking about arriving for dinner at 6 and going home at 8.

I have literally never seen Irish people behave in this manner. Far more common is to have taxi loads of "guests" arrive at 10/11 pm and then drink and snort coke until the day after. Pretty much the only "gatherings" I've seen happen here.

Strawberry Milkshake

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

How long have we got till flu season takes hold, 6 weeks?

Flu is less infectious than Covid, so even some adherence to a level of restrictions will result in a mild flu season

The Unbearables

stephenjmcd wrote: »

House parties went on during lockdown when nobody was supposed to be in other peoples houses, they'll still go on now regardless of what the limit is.

Yes but you will always get scummers breaking rules. As long as the majority stick to restrictions we'll be fine.

lee_baby_simms

GooglePlus wrote: »

I hope to god I'm wrong!

Well what I mean is...if this thing is going to come back just as hard as March then restrictions are far more justifiable.

I hope NPHET are keeping an eye on the many regions that this virus had a significant impact early on, cases have been rising since early June with very low hospitalisations/deaths.

France, Netherlands, New York, UK, Germany, Canada, Sweden, Spain, Belgium.

Drumpot

seamus wrote: »

As I mention above, we just don't know right now. The majority of new cases for the last month have been people under 45. For the time being we're not seeing any major jump in hospitalisations, which is good. But we have to be cautious and see how it pans out. If it does turn out that the hospitalisation rates for younger people is fractions of a percent, then we have quite a clear path forward on how to keep this thing under control.

It's never really been about ensuring nobody gets the virus. It's about trying to prevent hospitals being overrun and saving lives.

If we can "get back to normal" with simple restrictions like social distancing and hygiene, and by telling the elderly to limit their movements, then that's probably what we'll do in the long term.

I think this is the case, zero cases was never our long term target and the nature of the virus it seems to pop up regardless of what you do. It’s all about keeping hospitals not over run and figuring out how to Manage it.

While I am all for the cautious approach , with no vaccine we have to start trying to adapt and learn to live with the virus. But Not by being stupid and going full throttle.

But it feels like there is poor communication and no real clear identifiable strategy. It’s a mish mash of things.

I saw that 2 children in primary schools tested positive in Scotland. https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.edinburghlive.co.uk/news/edinburgh-news/coronavirus-scotland-two-primary-school-18786043.amp

What really sticks out is the sentence that “schools are considered low risk”, how is this worked out? Where is the information that tells us why schools are low risk? There is medical evidence that suggest children up to 5 are actually more likely to spread virus and that children over that age are just as likely to spread as adults. So what makes a school building/environment less risky then other building setting with 30 people in a relatively small room for hours?

Sweet.Science

Sweet.Science wrote: »

Fair enough . Let's stop treating these new cases like armageddon so . Let's just get on with life

There are 18 people in the whole country in hospital with covid . We have capacity for 1000

Why are people panicking. Let's get back to normal

That's what I have bee arguing here for two days- its the hospitals admissions and the care home etc that is the concern, not cases in and of themselves. Hospital admission are starting to show a little upswing, so even though we have room, it needs to be monitored closely.

caveat emptor

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

I’m still hoping to wake up with a hangover and realise it’s January 1st, 2020.

Bobby Ewing in the shower kinda thing

I love the 5 minutes every morning where I forget where I am.
Best part of the day.
I then say fvck it and get up and do Groundhog Day.

KrustyUCC

Intersting that some in cabinet seem to be questioning the very cautious approach of NPHET

"A Cabinet source said there were concerns at the highest ranks of Cabinet that Nphet had "departed from the European mainstream in the severity of their advice" as they are "under pressure from academic commentators as opposed to solid science".

"Many countries have similar incidence or much higher incidence of Covid to Ireland and have schools open and bars open, international travel within Europe is allowed, as are gatherings of up to 5,000 people," the source said. "

seamus

caveat emptor wrote: »

Yeah it is fairly regular. It should be dampened by the measures taken throughout the world (especially china) from whence it usually comes. In the report below you can see the week number and the peak is slightly different each year. You can find the weekly reports here.

• last year peak was December
• year before end of jan /feb
• 2 years before end of jan feb

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/attachment.php?attachmentid=523273&stc=1&d=1597743728

I'm sure someone who knows the weather could do a cross-check on that and link it to average temperatures or rainfall levels or something.

Aside; In that graph the red line is the rate at which Influenza-like-illnesses (ILIs) were reported to the HSE. The bars represent the rate at which Influenza (A&B) are detected in the population. You can see a general match between the two - as ILI rates go up, so too does the detection of actual viruses circulating.

But the big spike in early 2020 - that's Covid. We saw a huge spike in the number of reported ILIs, but saw no complementary jump in Influenza viruses. being detected.

This is also how we know that the wave of 'flu in late 2019 wasn't Covid as so many people seem to think.

Eod100

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Intersting that some in cabinet seem to be questioning the very cautious approach of NPHET

"A Cabinet source said there were concerns at the highest ranks of Cabinet that Nphet had "departed from the European mainstream in the severity of their advice" as they are "under pressure from academic commentators as opposed to solid science".

"Many countries have similar incidence or much higher incidence of Covid to Ireland and have schools open and bars open, international travel within Europe is allowed, as are gatherings of up to 5,000 people," the source said. "

It doesn't dawn on them that we have high incidence with only some pubs open, fairly strict travel advice and maximum gatherings of 50 indoors and 200 outdoors..

khalessi

Drumpot wrote: »

I think this is the case, zero cases was never our long term target and the nature of the virus it seems to pop up regardless of what you do. It’s all about keeping hospitals not over run and figuring out how to Manage it.

While I am all for the cautious approach , with no vaccine we have to start trying to adapt and learn to live with the virus. But Not by being stupid and going full throttle.

But it feels like there is poor communication and no real clear identifiable strategy. It’s a mish mash of things.

I saw that 2 children in primary schools tested positive in Scotland. https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.edinburghlive.co.uk/news/edinburgh-news/coronavirus-scotland-two-primary-school-18786043.amp

What really sticks out is the sentence that “schools are considered low risk”, how is this worked out? Where is the information that tells us why schools are low risk? There is medical evidence that suggest children up to 5 are actually more likely to spread virus and that children over that age are just as likely to spread as adults. So what makes a school building/environment less risky then other building setting with 30 people in a relatively small room for hours?

Schools are low risk because we need them to be,to get the children in, to get the economy up and running again. There are plenty of recent studies contradicting that thought and even Mike Ryan in conversation said 10-12 year olds and teens can transmit virus as easily as adults and so need to be responsible for their behaviour regarding transmission. The government have gone against their own roadmap to reopening the economy which said stage 5 a phased reopening instead it is get them open, get em in. Rules that apply elsewhere re sd, max amount indoors for set amount of time do not apply to schools but we shall see how it goes.

Renjit

stephenjmcd wrote: »

House parties went on during lockdown when nobody was supposed to be in other peoples houses, they'll still go on now regardless of what the limit is.

Those who are not going to follow at the peak will not follow now too. But those who do will follow. That doesnt mean you do not set out guidelines.

seamus

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Intersting that some in cabinet seem to be questioning the very cautious approach of NPHET

"A Cabinet source said there were concerns at the highest ranks of Cabinet that Nphet had "departed from the European mainstream in the severity of their advice" as they are "under pressure from academic commentators as opposed to solid science".

"Many countries have similar incidence or much higher incidence of Covid to Ireland and have schools open and bars open, international travel within Europe is allowed, as are gatherings of up to 5,000 people," the source said. "

I'm generally not putting much stock in the wails of politicians. They all have their hands in various pockets, directly or indirectly. They have their own reasons for wanting pubs open and for dropping restrictions.

The fact that we're seeing many European countries pull back on their accelerated reopening plans - especially in regard to bars and nightclubs, tells us that being a little behind isn't always a bad thing.

Xenji

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Intersting that some in cabinet seem to be questioning the very cautious approach of NPHET

"A Cabinet source said there were concerns at the highest ranks of Cabinet that Nphet had "departed from the European mainstream in the severity of their advice" as they are "under pressure from academic commentators as opposed to solid science".

"Many countries have similar incidence or much higher incidence of Covid to Ireland and have schools open and bars open, international travel within Europe is allowed, as are gatherings of up to 5,000 people," the source said. "

Back at the start of May was there not talk of similar discord between NPHET and the government being pushed by the media.

Renjit

caveat emptor wrote: »

I love the 5 minutes every morning where I forget where I am.
Best part of the day.
I then say fvck it and get up and do Groundhog Day.

That reminds me of old story in Belfast when someone entered our apartment drunk and slept in the living room until morning when I woke up and went for a glass of water Guy was dazed for a moment before realizing he was in the wrong apartment.

PS: Always double check to lock your front door.

Eod100

Xenji wrote: »

Back at the start of May was there not talk of similar discord between NPHET and the government being pushed by the media.

Could just be political games to paint NPHET as bad cop, government as good cop. Politicians always concerned with public image and perception so could be way of trying to manage that.

KrustyUCC

Xenji wrote: »

Back at the start of May was there not talk of similar discord between NPHET and the government being pushed by the media.

Think there was alright at various stages

Then the government brought accelerated the reopening

Even if the government agree with NPHET these new restrictions will have no affect on me as we limit people in our house indoors and outdoors as it is

KrustyUCC

Test and trace system now taking up to four days

"The country's test and trace system for Covid 19 is now taking almost four days to complete.

The time it takes from a person being referred for a test to their close contacts being traced was three days at the start of the month.

It has now increased up to 3.8 days, as the demand for testing has risen."

https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/test-and-trace-system-now-taking-up-to-four-days-1014356.html

Not much of an increase though

Eod100

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Test and trace system now taking up to four days

"The country's test and trace system for Covid 19 is now taking almost four days to complete.

The time it takes from a person being referred for a test to their close contacts being traced was three days at the start of the month.

It has now increased up to 3.8 days, as the demand for testing has risen."

https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/test-and-trace-system-now-taking-up-to-four-days-1014356.html

Not much of an increase though

I know not everyone has it but would have thought the app might help speed up contact tracing.

hmmm

Eod100 wrote: »

Could just be political games to paint NPHET as bad cop, government as good cop. Politicians always concerned with public image and perception so could be way of trying to manage that.

Possibly it. You'd be the brave politician to disagree with NPHET on something fundamental and then try to explain later if the hospitals became overwhelmed.

Sanjuro

Hego Damask wrote: »

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-53816511

Mission accomplished, the CCP have infected the world and ruined the worlds economy while profiting nicely from it , PARTY TIME!!!

Utter scum, there need to be consequences for that f*cking ****hole of a country.

random_banter

Has anyone seen a recent update on our current R number or is that metric out the window at the moment? Looked on the gov websites but can't find it.

mountgomery burns

What is the sense in asking older people to limit time outdoors? Fair enough, avoid crowds and limit social interactions. If you can, get your shopping delivered.

But limit your time outside, where the chance of catching it is extremely negligible? It just causes anger in people who feel they are being punished, and undue fear in others who might be afraid to go at all as a result which is extremely unhealthy. All on the basis of public health advise...they deal in one absolute and are reluctant to consider other factors.

hmmm

Eod100 wrote: »

Especially when Gardai seemingly have no power to enforce. Not sure why they haven't been granted temporary emergency power to break up parties if over the limit.

This. The people having these don't care about the limits. And it's not just young people, there have been enough older people who should know better throwing birthday parties and so on and inviting all the relatives. Just postpone it for a year and have a bit of cop-on.

If the spread is happening now when people can at least meet outside, what is going to happen over the Winter?

Eod100

hmmm wrote: »

Possibly it. You'd be the brave politician to disagree with NPHET on something fundamental and then try to explain later if the hospitals became overwhelmed.

Exactly, can't have their cake and eat it. Plus don't see why all schools have to open at end of month. Could do it on county level depending on incidence or even on school preparation level. I completely empathise with parents having to juggle working form home or even outside with minding their children and trying to help with school etc but don't see why it's an all or nothing approach.

stephenjmcd

Eod100 wrote: »

Especially when Gardai seemingly have no power to enforce. Not sure why they haven't been granted temporary emergency power to break up parties if over the limit.

Nope, they can't enter private property to break up a house party without a warrant.

It was clarified yesterday they have very little powers in terms of public health.

When it comes to pubs for example the only thing they can do there is if no meals are being served.

As you mention not even emergency powers

froog

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/18/china-xi-jinping-facing-widespread-opposition-in-his-own-party-claims-insider

damning indictment of Jinping from expelled politician. i hope she is safe.

Oranage2

stephenjmcd wrote: »

House parties went on during lockdown when nobody was supposed to be in other peoples houses, they'll still go on now regardless of what the limit is.

If I said the sky was blue you'd disagree with me

stephenjmcd

Oranage2 wrote: »

If I said the sky was blue you'd disagree with me

Well its a fact isn't it ?

During lockdown we were told stay at home, don't be visiting even your family.There were still house parties on, we all heard of them and saw them. Birthday parties, BBQs etc

Do you think any limit on numbers in a house is going to stop that now ?

If people were having them then back when we were supposed to be in lockdown they'll have them now. Especially when there is absolutely nothing to stop them.

ShyMets

Oranage2 wrote: »

If I said the sky was blue you'd disagree with me

Technical the sky is not blue. It just appears like that because of the way light from the sun enters into Earth's atmosphere. So the poster would be well within their rights to disagree:)

The Unbearables

Hego Damask wrote: »

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-53816511

Mission accomplished, the CCP have infected the world and ruined the worlds economy while profiting nicely from it , PARTY TIME!!!

Utter scum, there need to be consequences for that f*cking ****hole of a country.

Good luck finding criticism from our left leaning liberal media.

Orange man bad.

Red man good.

KrustyUCC

I know it's the Mirror but they are reporting on possible further local lockdowns and they specifically mention Carlow

autumnbelle

That’s mental how are China’s figures not increasing? Absolutely farcical that we can have 200 cases a day and they are coming out with 20

drunkmonkey

mountgomery burns wrote: »

What is the sense in asking older people to limit time outdoors?

We're going to be asked to wear masks outdoors now..

drunkmonkey

autumnbelle wrote: »

That’s mental how are China’s figures not increasing? Absolutely farcical that we can have 200 cases a day and they are coming out with 20

We're not coming out with 200 sick people a day though. You'll always get cases, we applied the same logic to Aids here we'd be getting cases every day.

Eod100

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Nope, they can't enter private property to break up a house party without a warrant.

It was clarified yesterday they have very little powers in terms of public health.

When it comes to pubs for example the only thing they can do there is if no meals are being served.

As you mention not even emergency powers

Seems another one again where enforcement is poor. Lot of talk about policing with consent, majority following guidelines. That's all well and good but why isn't there any provision for a minority. Even if it was fining owner or person renting in house if they're acting the maggot might make people think twice.

Eod100

KrustyUCC wrote: »

I know it's the Mirror but they are reporting on possible further local lockdowns and they specifically mention Carlow

Carlow's incidence always seemed high all along and was never fully explained. Are there big meat plants there say?

stephenjmcd

Eod100 wrote: »

Seems another one again where enforcement is poor. Lot of talk about policing with consent, majority following guidelines. That's all well and good but why isn't there any provision for a minority. Even if it was fining owner or person renting in house if they're acting the maggot might make people think twice.

A few decent articles here on the actual Garda powers, which really are extremely limited

https://twitter.com/CormacJOKeeffe/status/1295662923373780993?s=19

GooglePlus

ShyMets wrote: »

Technical the sky is not blue. It just appears like that because of the way light from the sun enters into Earth's atmosphere. So the poster would be well within their rights to disagree:)

The colour of everything we know is the result of the objects interaction with light and how our eyes perceive the light as a result of the interaction. So saying the sky is blue is the same as saying the grass is green.

growleaves

autumnbelle wrote: »

That’s mental how are China’s figures not increasing? Absolutely farcical that we can have 200 cases a day and they are coming out with 20

Communist dictatorships = liars

You don't know how many cases China has. No one here does.

Boggles

drunkmonkey wrote: »

We're not coming out with 200 sick people a day though. You'll always get cases, we applied the same logic to Aids here we'd be getting cases every day.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XO8x1jmmiJA

KrustyUCC

Eod100 wrote: »

Carlow's incidence always seemed high all along and was never fully explained. Are there big meat plants there say?

I don't have a notion

Never been to Carlow lol

John O.Groats

Eod100 wrote: »

Seems another one again where enforcement is poor. Lot of talk about policing with consent, majority following guidelines. That's all well and good but why isn't there any provision for a minority. Even if it was fining owner or person renting in house if they're acting the maggot might make people think twice.

Personally if it was up to me I would use batons, tasers etc. on anyone found to be violating the recommendations in this way.. Whatever it takes to knock some sense into moronic heads.

Loafing Oaf

KrustyUCC wrote: »

I don't have a notion

Never been to Carlow lol

There's a song in that somewhere

bennyl10

KrustyUCC wrote: »

I know it's the Mirror but they are reporting on possible further local lockdowns and they specifically mention Carlow

we've had Donnelly already said Local lockdowns weren't being considered

it'll been more 'recommendations;

BagheeraBlue

John O.Groats wrote: »

Personally if it was up to me I would use batons, tasers etc. on anyone found to be violating the recommendations. Whatever it takes to knock some sense into moronic heads.

Might as well have let the nazis win

The Unbearables

autumnbelle wrote: »

That’s mental how are China’s figures not increasing? Absolutely farcical that we can have 200 cases a day and they are coming out with 20

Communist liars.

Doctor Jimbob

John O.Groats wrote: »

Personally if it was up to me I would use batons, tasers etc. on anyone found to be violating the recommendations in this way.. Whatever it takes to knock some sense into moronic heads.

You have to be on a wind up.

GooglePlus

The Unbearables wrote: »

Communist liars.

And soon to be the new leaders of the "free" world.

SeaBreezes

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Its not a mild strain and a strong stain, its a mild/ no disease or a serious disease. There is only 1 strain as serious / mild / asymptomatic cases come out of the same clusters.

And detecting as many of the real infections as possible is a good thing. Its obviously better when there are none, but when there are, detect as many as possible

There are more than one type of strain of virus, the D614 strain is the worry.


https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/d614g-mutation-strains-of-the-sars-cov-2-coronavirus-fast-appearing-in-south-east-asia,-experts-warn-to-prepared-for-the-worst-in-coming-months-