Who didnt vote for the Good Friday Agreement?

Junkyard Tom

Bonniedog wrote: »

So only hope is to outride the Prods for 20 years.

People of unionist/protestant heritage already make up less than 50% of the population in the six counties. The north has a lot of old Protestants/Unionists and a lot of young Catholics/Others/Nationalists

Bowie

Bowie wrote: »

Because the Americans have the moral high ground

Not to mention the UVF and LVF who never get a mention when it comes to anything up there.

Bonniedog

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

People of unionist/protestant heritage already make up less than 50% of the population in the six counties. The north has a lot of old Protestants/Unionists and a lot of young Catholics/Others/Nationalists

And yet, the electoral balance has not changed. And that is only basis on which Brits will consider having a referendum.

Very few Protestants - margin of error territory - are pro unity. A lot of Catholics are pro union, even when they vote for SDLP in particular. Not pro union in loyalist sense, more that they don't see any pressing reason to change.

FrancieBrady

Bonniedog wrote: »

And yet, the electoral balance has not changed. And that is only basis on which Brits will consider having a referendum.

.

This is wrong. See the Raymond McCord case. https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/campaigner-raymond-mccord-loses-court-action-over-border-poll-996356.html

The SoS can use any grounds for calling a poll and he/she doesn't have to evidence why he/she made the decision either.

timthumbni

I voted against it simply because of the release of the terrorist prisoners that would come from it. I don’t regret voting against it. At least when i see some of the pond life who got released I can be comfortable within myself that I didn’t vote for that.

Bonniedog

FrancieBrady wrote: »

This is wrong. See the Raymond McCord case. https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/campaigner-raymond-mccord-loses-court-action-over-border-poll-996356.html

The SoS can use any grounds for calling a poll and he/she doesn't have to evidence why he/she made the decision either.

No he cannot.

The GFA specifically states that there has to be evidence that it is "likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be a part of the united kingdom and form part of a united Ireland."

How else is going to decide that is "likely" other than an election?

Even if he did decide on a whim, or if a pro unity Labour governement wanted one, the elections results of past 25 years show that it would be defeated.

Only valid poll is a 32 county poll held on same day.

Reading tea leaves? Ring Mystic Meg?

FrancieBrady

Bonniedog wrote: »

No he cannot.

The GFA specifically states that there has to be evidence that it is "likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be a part of the united kingdom and form part of a united Ireland."

How else is going to decide that is "likely" other than an election?

Reading tea leaves? Ring Mystic Meg?

Read the judgement in the case posted.

He/she can use whatever he/she likes and does NOT have to explain it.
He/she can use opinion polls or political judgement. Fact.

Bonniedog

I know what they said, and you can be sure that would be challenged again on basis of the actual text of what is in GFA rather than judicial interpretation.

SOS would have to give reasons, and they would have to be more than, "I was talking to this chap in the bookies."

Only valid indication would be when parties supporting a united Ireland were close to being a majority electorally.

There is no indication of that.

Indeed, a pro Union SOS could call one on specious grounds such as a random opinion poll, knowing it would be defeated, and putting it to bed for another 7 years at least. In the unlikely event he did, you may be sure it would go to court.

Main reason they won't call one including in above circumstances is that they are not going to create a situation where loyalists might re-emerge as a military threat to "defend the Union."

FrancieBrady

Bonniedog wrote: »

I know what they said, and you can be sure that would be challenged again on basis of the actual text of what is in GFA rather than judicial interpretation.

SOS would have to give reasons, and they would have to be more than, "I was talking to this chap in the bookies."

Only valid indication would be when parties supporting a united Ireland were close to being a majority electorally.

There is no indication of that.

Indeed, a pro Union SOS could call one on specious grounds such as a random opinion poll, knowing it would be defeated, and putting it to bed for another 7 years at least. In the unlikely event he did, you may be sure it would go to court.

Main reason they won't call one including in above circumstances is that they are not going to create a situation where loyalists might re-emerge as a military threat to "defend the Union."

Are you seriously offering that as a counter to the fact that you were wrong?

It has already been challenged...a court would find any subsequent challenge wrong again.

The purpose of it being this way is fairly obvious to me anyhow...a border poll will come when both governments are ready. And I think Dublin is starting to position itself for one.
The power swap parties and Westminster will not want one called on anyone else's terms and they will want to be seen to be leading on it.

Bonniedog

SOS will have to give grounds for one related to why opinion might have shifted to make it "likely" that unity would be outcome.

Where do you think he might get that?

And do you seriously think it would vote for unity?

FrancieBrady

Bonniedog wrote: »

SOS will have to give grounds for one related to why opinion might have shifted to make it "likely" that unity would be outcome.

Where do you think he might get that?

And do you seriously think it would vote for unity?

You are quite simply wrong.
Nowhere in the GFA does it say the SoS has to give a reason and the courts underlined and backed that.
The judgement explicity states that he/she can use 'political judgement' to call one and also explicitly states that he/she cannot be constrained.

It is your 'opinion' that that is wrong. Nothing more.

I don't see any political party in Ireland advocating a No vote in a BP and the British have to remain neutral as a government. I certainly think there will be many British politicians advocating for a Yes vote.

So I think it has every chance of passing.

Bonniedog

Read the fkn thing. It's like arguing with a bold child. I've posted the relevant section before.

You don't see "any party in Ireland" campaigning against a vote.

Eh, the DUP and UUP maybe?

And it doesnt matter a fart if it was to win 99:1 in 26 counties which I assume you the Shinner think is Ireland!

If it loses by 50.0001: 49.9999 in the part of Ireland the SF traitors administer, it loses.

FrancieBrady

Bonniedog wrote: »

Read the fkn thing. It's like arguing with a bold child. I've posted the relevant section before.

You don't see "any party in Ireland" campaigning against a vote.

Eh, the DUP and UUP maybe?

And it doesnt matter a fart if it was to win 99:1 in 26 counties which I assume you the Shinner think is Ireland!

If it loses by 50.0001: 49.9999 in the part of Ireland the SF traitors administer, it loses.

Yes, if it does not pass in one part of Ireland the motion doesn't carry....that IS in the GFA. My view is that it has just as good a chance of passing as it does failing, based on the timing.


The other stuff..that the SoS has to explain or evidence his/her reason for calling a poll ISN'T in the GFA.

A Unionist tried to compel him/her but lost the argument as you have lost it.

Greta_Funberg

Bowie wrote: »

Because the Americans have the moral high ground

Not sure what that has to do with the price of fish?