Predicted Grades Appeals

Millionaire only not

Treppen wrote: »

So you maintain that whatever grade students get in the JC can't be improved upon!!!

I didn’t say improve on .
I said if u were a an average to low student in Jc there’s a 80% chance plus that won’t change !

RealJohn

Better than 80% chance, I’d say.
Talking about the students who perform significantly better in the leaving than they did in the junior is like talking about the students who don’t do a tap for a year and a half and then knuckle down after the mocks and double their grades - we all know they exist, but we also all know that they do not represent the typical student. The student who doesn’t start working until after the mocks typically doesn’t do much better in the real exams (a bit better, but not much), and the same goes for the students who didn’t work for the junior, and when you think about it, it’s for exactly the same reasons.

Treppen

RealJohn wrote: »

Better than 80% chance, I’d say.
Talking about the students who perform significantly better in the leaving than they did in the junior is like talking about the students who don’t do a tap for a year and a half and then knuckle down after the mocks and double their grades - we all know they exist, but we also all know that they do not represent the typical student. The student who doesn’t start working until after the mocks typically doesn’t do much better in the real exams (a bit better, but not much), and the same goes for the students who didn’t work for the junior, and when you think about it, it’s for exactly the same reasons.

What do you mean by significantly better?

Like moving from a C in science to a B in Biology.

RealJohn

Treppen wrote: »

What do you mean by significantly better?

Like moving from a C in science to a B in Biology.

I wouldn't consider that significantly better, no, though it would depend on the subject at both levels. I could see a student getting a C in science and then a B in biology, for example, but far fewer who would get a C in science and a B in chemistry or physics. I imagine that applies to other subjects too.
I would imagine that the algorithm would be able to identify the typical pattern though, and be acccurate in that respect in the majority of cases. It wouldn't take the intangibles into account, including whether or not the teacher's invented grade and their ranking of the student in the class was accurate (which is still the biggest flaw in the whole process, and the one that makes it unworkable, in my opinion), but it would help to iron out a lot of other inaccuracies.

I'd love to see that data actually - what is the correlation between junior cert/cycle attainment in subjects that follow on from or are directly beneficial to leaving cert subjects and the actual leaving cert results (and indeed, what kind of correlation is there between junior cert/cycle results in subjects that are seemingly unrelated - something like what's the correlation between junior cert/cycle english and leaving cert physics results). Might make an interesting study for someone. They'd have to take out this year's leaving cert though, obviously.

man_no_plan

I will throw this in...

I have seen more students take up my subjects from scratch for LC and getting a high B or A than I have seen sitting the JC equivalent having achieved a C or D.

Alex86Eire

I've noticed over the last number of years that some boys tend to underachieve at Junior Cycle level and then motivation seems to kick in and they do a great Leaving.

deiseindublin

Any feedback on the 6000 odd students being upgraded?

Treppen

deiseindublin wrote: »

Any feedback on the 6000 odd students being upgraded?

I think it's happening tonight.

https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/bc698-statement-from-the-minister-for-education-norma-foley-td-and-the-department-of-education-and-skills-regarding-leaving-certificate-2020-calculated-grades-process/

deiseindublin

Yeah, results supposed to be out 6pm, didn't hear of anybody getting an upgrade yet.

Presume this will get rid of a lot of the appeals.

km79

deiseindublin wrote: »

Yeah, results supposed to be out 6pm, didn't hear of anybody getting an upgrade yet.

Presume this will get rid of a lot of the appeals.

Indeed........6000 students also got higher results than they should have but won’t be downgraded

deiseindublin

LC 21 are really screwed right now, even more deferrals and inflated points feeding into next years places.

man_no_plan

deiseindublin wrote: »

LC 21 are really screwed right now, even more deferrals and inflated points feeding into next years places.

I haven't seen any figures on deferrals, how do you make this out?

The only way this causes an issue for 2021 is if there are people going back in applying through the CAO. If they had the points this year and deferred their points will have no effect on points next year the colleges will have to manage referrals to ensure they dont have too many.

I dont see it being a massive issue. Just another soundbite that the media will pick up on and, in the absence of any research or system knowledge, blow out of all proportion.

The numbers changing course after these changed grades are likely to be minimal and they reckon that the places are there to cover it.

If an applicant was 11 points or less off they are likely to get an offer if they are moved up a grade, if they are outside of that range they are very unlikely to get a new offer as the majority are only affected in one subject and by one grade band.

man_no_plan

deiseindublin wrote: »

LC 21 are really screwed right now, even more deferrals and inflated points feeding into next years places.

I haven't seen any figures on deferrals, how do you make this out?

The only way this causes an issue for 2021 is if there are people going back in applying through the CAO. If they had the points this year and deferred their points will have no effect on points next year the colleges will have to manage referrals to ensure they dont have too many.

I dont see it being a massive issue. Just another soundbite that the media will pick up on and, in the absence of any research or system knowledge, blow out of all proportion.

The numbers changing course after these changed grades are likely to be minimal and they reckon that the places are there to cover it.

If an applicant was 11 points or less off they are likely to get an offer if they are moved up a grade, if they are outside of that range they are very unlikely to get a new offer as the majority are only affected in one subject and by one grade band.

r93kaey5p2izun

I have been made aware of a student who was downgraded and not affected by this error so remaining downgraded. However classmate ranked lower by teacher has been upgraded following correction of error, leaving them above the person they ranked below. I thought the teacher ranking was not going to be touched, even if grades adjusted up or down to fit subject profiles.

Treppen

Preston Rotten Thunderstorm wrote: »

I have been made aware of a student who was downgraded and not affected by this error so remaining downgraded. However classmate ranked lower by teacher has been upgraded following correction of error, leaving them above the person they ranked below. I thought the teacher ranking was not going to be touched, even if grades adjusted up or down to fit subject profiles.

It's all a mess. Seemingly it wasn't an individual JC grade that influenced LC but the whole class added together... I think!

The model was designed to take the Junior Cycle results of a group of students and use that group’s results to inform the calculation of their Leaving Certificate Results. It bears re-stating; the system did not take the results of a single student’s Junior Cycle exams and apply it to that specific student’s Leaving Certificate. Rather, the system looked at performance at an aggregate class level in the Junior Cycle examinations, and applied that in calculating students’ Leaving Certificate Results.

That's still vague if you ask me.

https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/bc698-statement-from-the-minister-for-education-norma-foley-td-and-the-department-of-education-and-skills-regarding-leaving-certificate-2020-calculated-grades-process/

deiseindublin

man_no_plan wrote: »

I haven't seen any figures on deferrals, how do you make this out?

Students that have already enrolled in courses have been told that they can defer any new offers to 2021 if their points go up.

Added to that, anyone that sits the exams in November may get another offer, or may reapply in 2021 with an inflated set of results, with the advantage of possibly only sitting a few exams. Who is going to resit a H1 predicted grade.

Also, students have been told their can continue with their course this year and restart the upgraded offer course next year, but not have to pay fees, so lots will do year 1 and then decide.

2021 are screwed imo, unless lots more places are made available next year also. They've missed so much time, and will probably miss as much this year.

Wombatman

Awarding lower grades than should have been given only half the problem.

Almost 8,000 Leaving Cert grades issued this year were higher than they should have been due to coding errors in the calculated grades process, according to new figures.

In addition to Saturday’s announcement that 6,100 students received lower grades than they should have, the Department of Education confirmed on Sunday evening that about 7,943 grades were higher than they were supposed to be.

While lower grades will be corrected upwards, higher grades awarded in error will not be corrected.

RealJohn

Wombatman wrote: »

Awarding lower grades than should have been given only half the problem.



While lower grades will be corrected upwards, higher grades awarded in error will not be corrected.

This.
I don’t know if Norma Foley is stupid, or she’s just spinning it the way she’s been told to, but having the same number of (well, more) students being awarded higher grades than they should of been does not offset the problem. It makes it twice as bad.

mirrorwall14

Has there been any detail on the other errors yet?