Northern Ireland- a failure 99 years on?

Junkyard Tom

Natterjack from Kerry wrote: »

a byproduct of Brexit is nevertheless an effective end to the modern history of Northern Ireland as being defined by the question of it remaining in the UK or joining the republic. Brexit has given it such a good position that the issue is now settled.

Your views are at odds with reality. The 'British Question' has never been more pertinent in peace time.

FrancieBrady

RobMc59 wrote: »

If johnson was`nt such a buffoon I`d swear that brussels and the UK government colluded over this.
Agree to a border in the Irish sea and the EU will make it virtually impossible for a UI as NI has such favourable conditions it would be madness to want to leave the Union.

The Daily Mail version of the sinister 'EU' again, that is something above and separate to the member states. :rolleyes:

FrancieBrady

Natterjack from Kerry wrote: »

While it is entirely from the random fall of the chips and not of NI's making, it nevertheless now finds itself in a position that simply cannot be bettered. It is great news for all in Northern Ireland. And those in the south who wish it well. Any structure involving joining the south and distancing itself from GB has downsides that will never make such a move worthwhile. While NI was very much a sideshow - and one that highlited an embarrassing selfishness from many in England - a byproduct of Brexit is nevertheless an effective end to the modern history of Northern Ireland as being defined by the question of it remaining in the UK or joining the republic. Brexit has given it such a good position that the issue is now settled.

Even if it does give the northern economy a boost, the reason it won't have much effect will be seen in 4 years time, the DUP trying to muster support to end the protocol and then again 4 years after that.

RobMc59

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The Daily Mail version of the sinister 'EU' again, that is something above and separate to the member states. :rolleyes:

I did say if johnson was`nt such a buffoon..I doubt anyone considered the advantages the situation would give NI at the time.As I recall Downcow mentioned it a while back,looks like he is correct.

RobMc59

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Even if it does give the northern economy a boost, the reason it won't have much effect will be seen in 4 years time, the DUP trying to muster support to end the protocol and then again 4 years after that.

As you`ve said in the past Francie,a situation that initially looks bad turns out to be a godsend.The DUP will see the advantages of this soon enough.

Natterjack from Kerry

Yes. It could have gone very badly for Northern Ireland. Various Brexit outcomes could have had effectively hived it off strongly from the UK, and thrust it towards a UI against the will of many there. Or it being bound very strongly to the UK harming social and commercial life on the island and distancing it from the EU.
What it has ended up with though is effectively dual citizenship - UK and EU. Citizens of whatever persuasion in NI will benefit from this unique position and privileges it brings. And those closer to either end of the spectrum can both draw comfort from seeing themselves as still integral to the UK, or still with a seamless link to Ireland and to the EU, whichever they prefer.
It is the rarest thing in international diplomacy - a true win win outcome.

FrancieBrady

RobMc59 wrote: »

I did say if johnson was`nt such a buffoon..I doubt anyone considered the advantages the situation would give NI at the time.As I recall Downcow mentioned it a while back,looks like he is correct.

ffs, people were screaming at the DUP to take May's deal. Everyone knew it was the best they could get.

And we are the EU. We, ensured NI got treated this way. It will bring a UI, slower and less divisively. We need NI to be economically better off.

FrancieBrady

RobMc59 wrote: »

As you`ve said in the past Francie,a situation that initially looks bad turns out to be a godsend.The DUP will see the advantages of this soon enough.

Volatility will preclude any major investment. Volatility will ensure people will opt to stay in the EU permanently given a chance. The issues are very clear for voters now, they will now see what happens when people mess with trade arrangements.

RobMc59

FrancieBrady wrote: »

ffs, people were screaming at the DUP to take May's deal. Everyone knew it was the best they could get.

And we are the EU. We, ensured NI got treated this way. It will bring a UI, slower and less divisively. We need NI to be economically better off.

Maybe on the mythical island of tir na nog Francie but in the real world NI is going to be just fine the way it is.

Fionn1952

RobMc59 wrote: »

I did say if johnson was`nt such a buffoon..I doubt anyone considered the advantages the situation would give NI at the time.As I recall Downcow mentioned it a while back,looks like he is correct.

Literally everyone with an ounce of wit discussed the advantages it would give NI at the time, Rob.

Junkyard Tom

Natterjack from Kerry wrote: »

those closer to either end of the spectrum can both draw comfort from seeing themselves as still integral to the UK

The DUP will see to it that Unionists feel the contrary, Unionist politicians are already trying to blame everyone but themselves for the Irish Sea Border which will continue to cleave the population politically.

FrancieBrady

RobMc59 wrote: »

Maybe on the mythical island of tir na nog Francie but in the real world NI is going to be just fine the way it is.

I've followed the Brexit threads Rob and I would say of all the posters on those threads your comments are in the twilight zone.The twilight zone of vainglorious imperialism and jingoism. You are hardly an oracle when it comes to calling the future.

Natterjack from Kerry

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

The DUP will see to it that Unionists feel the contrary, Unionist politicians are already trying to blame everyone but themselves for the Irish Sea Border which will continue to cleave the population politically.

It is too abstract and also divorced from the daily experience of the average citizen to have any effect. Once systems are up and running and business procedures smoothed, it will be just part of the working world. People wont see it - yet will see the advantages of their dual citizenship.

FrancieBrady

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

The DUP will see to it that Unionists feel the contrary, Unionist politicians are already trying to blame everyone but themselves for the Irish Sea Border which will continue to cleave the population politically.

Ian Paisley trying to get Article 16 invoked. Let's see somebody making a big investment with that going on.

What happens when the subvention starts to fall and Scotland leaves too...volatility as the UK continues to break up, not a great inducement at all.

Natterjack from Kerry

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Ian Paisley trying to get Article 16 invoked. Let's see somebody making a big investment with that going on.

What happens when the subvention starts to fall and Scotland leaves too...volatility as the UK continues to break up, not a great inducement at all.

There is no volatility when you have the ultimate hedged bet - UK and/or EU wins on the economic front, and NI wins. It simply cannot lose. And more likely, wins on the double. No corner of Europe has insulated itself from Brexit turbulence as NI. Ireland is far more exposed. The EU might have to take a hit, but can weather it. NI is the surest economic bet at the moment. It knows it - most trenchant unionists included - and will not throw away this gift.

FrancieBrady

Natterjack from Kerry wrote: »

There is no volatility when you have the ultimate hedged bet - UK and/or EU wins on the economic front, and NI wins. It simply cannot lose. And more likely, wins on the double. No corner of Europe has insulated itself from Brexit turbulence as NI. Ireland is far more exposed. The EU might have to take a hit, but can weather it. NI is the surest economic bet at the moment. It knows it - most trenchant unionists included - and will not throw away this gift.

Gove just sent them a 14 page warning on system collapse ffs. Insulated? Yeh, right.
We're 5 days in. A bit early to be saying 'the issue is settled'. Unless of course the 'issue' frightens you.

Natterjack from Kerry

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Gove just sent them a 14 page warning on system collapse ffs. Insulated? Yeh, right.
We're 5 days in. A bit early to be saying 'the issue is settled'. Unless of course the 'issue' frightens you.

The short term will certainly be disrupted. A consequence of there being no true transition period as the nominal transition period was taken up negotiating leading to a last minute big bang implementation of it. But that is just a jolt of change and will pass. The longer term implications are as I have described and will be an unalloyed good for NI, and a status from which even the most deranged wings of either extreme will not propose jettisoning.

FrancieBrady

Natterjack from Kerry wrote: »

The short term will certainly be disrupted. A consequence of there being no true transition period as the nominal transition period was taken up negotiating leading to a last minute big bang implementation of it. But that is just a jolt of change and will pass. The longer term implications are as I have described and will be an unalloyed good for NI, and a status from which even the most deranged wings of either extreme will not propose jettisoning.

Grand if that was the only issue with Brexit. It's a slow strangulation for the North IMO.

Wait until the NI farmers start. Meanwhile business people in NI are glad of certainty but not optimistic. We are in a wait and see phase here:

Manufacturing NI said ''Despite some easement created by this deal, there will still be significant new complexities and costs, and without the detail, systems and processes, our firms are not ready. As a result the start of 2021 is going to be very difficult,” it added.

Manufacturing NI said the deal came with a significant cost. “It is the first trade deal in history which makes doing business more, not less, difficult, and enforces a full customs border between Britain and the EU and with Northern Ireland.”

downcow

RobMc59 wrote: »

As you`ve said in the past Francie,a situation that initially looks bad turns out to be a godsend.The DUP will see the advantages of this soon enough.

Yes, no thanks to the dup. We seem to have landed on our feet but the dup will not be forgiven for their acrobatics I believe. For most dup voters the issue with the Irish sea border is more important that the financial benifits. I know lots of dup voters who say they will never again get a vote of theirs.

That all said, there is an interesting part in the Irish protocol agreement that allows the UK government to unilaterally end it if it creates community difficulties (that’s not the correct wording), but basically the UK can legally bin it if the unionists walk out of government. Some more optimistic dup voters believe boris and the dup have discussed this option and may enable it in six months (I don’t).
But if the Irish Sea border undermines the union significantly then the unionists parties will be under serious pressure to walk and instigate the removal of the protocol. The key in those circumstances would be to keep the benifits but minimises issues of Irish Sea ie have our cake and eat it.

FrancieBrady

downcow wrote: »

Yes, no thanks to the dup. We seem to have landed on our feet but the dup will not be forgiven for their acrobatics I believe. For most dup voters the issue with the Irish sea border is more important that the financial benifits. I know lots of dup voters who say they will never again get a vote of theirs.

That all said, there is an interesting part in the Irish protocol agreement that allows the UK government to unilaterally end it if it creates community difficulties (that’s not the correct wording), but basically the UK can legally bin it if the unionists walk out of government. Some more optimistic dup voters believe boris and the dup have discussed this option and may enable it in six months (I don’t).
But if the Irish Sea border undermines the union significantly then the unionists parties will be under serious pressure to walk and instigate the removal of the protocol. The key in those circumstances would be to keep the benifits but minimises issues of Irish Sea ie have our cake and eat it.

Where do I send my millions in nvestment...sounds like a stable place to invest in.

downcow

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Grand if that was the only issue with Brexit. It's a slow strangulation for the North IMO.

Wait until the NI farmers start. Meanwhile business people in NI are glad of certainty but not optimistic. We are in a wait and see phase here:

The only threat to the ni farmers is slab Murphy and his ira mates smuggling Roi meat into ni to ship to GB to deal with the shortage and get the premium prices

FrancieBrady

downcow wrote: »

The only threat to the ni farmers is slab Murphy and his ira mates smuggling Roi meat into ni to ship to GB to deal with the shortage and get the premium prices

Sure downcow...that's the only threat.

downcow

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Where do I send my millions in nvestment...sounds like a stable place to invest in.

Won’t happen and won’t be unstable because EU and UK won’t let it happen by ensuring the checks at Irish Sea are minimised. Even labour is calling today to smooth the GB to NI deliveries - because they know that if it starts to feel too much like a border then the protocol will go. Then EU needs to get its thinking cap on about how the not have checks at Newry or cork. They will have to look after us. I know that sounds and is unfair, but hey, it’s where OWC has found itself. The luck of the (Northern) Irish lol

FrancieBrady

downcow wrote: »

Won’t happen and won’t be unstable because EU and UK won’t let it happen by ensuring the checks at Irish Sea are minimised. Even labour is calling today to smooth the GB to NI deliveries - because they know that if it starts to feel too much like a border then the protocol will go. Then EU needs to get its thinking cap on about how the not have checks at Newry or cork. They will have to look after us. I know that sounds and is unfair, but hey, it’s where OWC has found itself. The luck of the (Northern) Irish lol

That's just to ensure your supply of bendy bananas in M&S etc downcow. Would you for once listen to the experts. I quoted some above...there is significant problems ahead because trade has been made harder for NI, not easier.
Also, have a look to the awakening Cornwall got who, like NI farmers were promised the same subsidy as they had been getting from the EU by the Tories. The reality was eh...somewhat different.

In other words, wake up and smell the coffee.

downcow

I also hear a lot of nonsense that we will need to get an Irish passport to access all the EU benifits. Low and behold the gfa comes to our rescue again (thanks Gerry and john). All this insistence from EU spurred by Roi that the gfa is sacrosanct is coming back to bite them on their arses. The gfa is crystal clear that ni residents can be either Irish or british and must not be descrimated against. Watch out for the first time an ni resident who is british gets refused something an ni resident who is Irish gets.

Just a wee sub question Does anyone know what the status will be of GB person who comes to live in ni or vice versa, with regard to eg health card?

BonnieSituation

downcow wrote: »

Yes, no thanks to the dup. We seem to have landed on our feet but the dup will not be forgiven for their acrobatics I believe. For most dup voters the issue with the Irish sea border is more important that the financial benifits. I know lots of dup voters who say they will never again get a vote of theirs.

That all said, there is an interesting part in the Irish protocol agreement that allows the UK government to unilaterally end it if it creates community difficulties (that’s not the correct wording), but basically the UK can legally bin it if the unionists walk out of government. Some more optimistic dup voters believe boris and the dup have discussed this option and may enable it in six months (I don’t).
But if the Irish Sea border undermines the union significantly then the unionists parties will be under serious pressure to walk and instigate the removal of the protocol. The key in those circumstances would be to keep the benifits but minimises issues of Irish Sea ie have our cake and eat it.

You think there's a Unionist veto back again?

BonnieSituation

downcow wrote: »

Won’t happen and won’t be unstable because EU and UK won’t let it happen by ensuring the checks at Irish Sea are minimised. Even labour is calling today to smooth the GB to NI deliveries - because they know that if it starts to feel too much like a border then the protocol will go. Then EU needs to get its thinking cap on about how the not have checks at Newry or cork. They will have to look after us. I know that sounds and is unfair, but hey, it’s where OWC has found itself. The luck of the (Northern) Irish lol

The EU?

So us "down South"?

Beltby

downcow wrote: »

I also hear a lot of nonsense that we will need to get an Irish passport to access all the EU benifits. Low and behold the gfa comes to our rescue again (thanks Gerry and john). All this insistence from EU spurred by Roi that the gfa is sacrosanct is coming back to bite them on their arses. The gfa is crystal clear that ni residents can be either Irish or british and must not be descrimated against. Watch out for the first time an ni resident who is british gets refused something an ni resident who is Irish gets.

Just a wee sub question Does anyone know what the status will be of GB person who comes to live in ni or vice versa, with regard to eg health card?

Try getting a job in Europe with a gb passport. You will need a work permit. You won't need a work permit with an Irish passport.

FrancieBrady

downcow wrote: »

I also hear a lot of nonsense that we will need to get an Irish passport to access all the EU benifits. Low and behold the gfa comes to our rescue again (thanks Gerry and john). All this insistence from EU spurred by Roi that the gfa is sacrosanct is coming back to bite them on their arses. The gfa is crystal clear that ni residents can be either Irish or british and must not be descrimated against. Watch out for the first time an ni resident who is british gets refused something an ni resident who is Irish gets.

Just a wee sub question Does anyone know what the status will be of GB person who comes to live in ni or vice versa, with regard to eg health card?

You need the new UK Global Health Card...your right to an EU EIHC one disappears when your current one expires. The UK has to pay for their own scheme now. What was that you were saying about EU benefits?

BonnieSituation

downcow wrote: »

I also hear a lot of nonsense that we will need to get an Irish passport to access all the EU benifits. Low and behold the gfa comes to our rescue again (thanks Gerry and john). All this insistence from EU spurred by Roi that the gfa is sacrosanct is coming back to bite them on their arses. The gfa is crystal clear that ni residents can be either Irish or british and must not be descrimated against. Watch out for the first time an ni resident who is british gets refused something an ni resident who is Irish gets.

Your right to citizenship has nothing to do with the GFA. It was codified in the 1956 Citizenship Act.

http://www.irishstatutebook.ie/eli/1956/act/26/section/6/enacted/en/html#sec6

Just a wee sub question Does anyone know what the status will be of GB person who comes to live in ni or vice versa, with regard to eg health card?

What? Why would their entitlement to health change?

The EHIC only covers you when you're abroad, ie. Northern resident going to France or Germany etc.

The GB resident is covered in NI under the HSC/NHS. Likewise the Northern resident will be covered for healthcare in Britain under the NHS/NHS Wales/NHS Scotland.

Residents of GB are covered under reciprocal agreements to be covered for healthcare in ROI. Same for those in the North.