Northern Ireland- a failure 99 years on?

Fionn1952

blanch152 wrote: »

A border poll held before it is clear that it is likely that it will be passed, is by definition divisive, as it breaches the terms of the GFA.

If polls were showing support at 50%+1 for unification, it could logically be stated that it is likely to pass. If the undecided voters were enough to push it one way or another with both sitting at under 50%, it could be stated that it is likely to pass. It would still be divisive if it passed at 60% or 70%, but that isn't really your problem, is it?

The reality is that you're trying to argue for requiring greater than 50%+1 via the backdoor. You want a situation where a consistent supermajority or similar indicate in a poll that they would support unification before it can be voted on. That runs contrary to the GFA, so in effect you want to scrap it, which would itself be incredibly divisive. Really doesn't gel with your arguing for continued partition on the basis of avoiding divisive scenarios.

If 50%+1 of the NI population wanted unification, you'd argue against proceeding with it, right? Wouldn't that be divisive?

tom1ie

Folks, from an economic point of view would a United Ireland make sense?
The last I heard was that NI requires 5billion (pounds?) to keep it going every year.
How can the republic add that to its yearly balance sheet without either raising taxes or cutting services?

downcow

BonnieSituation wrote: »

So you say, I'm going to the UK when you're heading to one of Fermanagh, Armagh, Tyrone, Derry, Antrim or Down?

Cos it's obviously nonsense.

It's like all this Unionists never say Londonderry... Unless of course a camera is on them or they're on the phone to Nolan. Catch yourself on.

This is one of the greatest misunderstandings I hear from nationalists regularly.
I am very sensitive to the connotations of how you say Londonderry. My dad who was a unionist from Donegal who lived a while in Derry was the only unionist I knew who defaulted to ‘derry’. I have to check myself not to say Londonderry in most company as the natural for me to say is londonderry. I will usually say they maiden city’ or the ‘north west’ to try not to offend.
I was struck recently when I was with strangers and had reason to say the name of that city. I had ducked it by saying north west, and my daughter, who has almost exclusively nationalist friends and Challenges anyone who says anything negative about Ireland or Irish, automatically piped in and said Londonderry (just to be more specific). I pointed out to her afterwards that those were Catholics we were speaking to and I was surprised at her, of all people, saying Londonderry. She was completely unaware that she had even said it till I pointed it out and we had a laugh about me being the moderate.

So really you should drop that nonsense that every time a prod says Londonderry that they are having a go. I would equate it to nationalists saying ‘The North’ I don’t think, most of the time ‘The North’ is said for reaction either. Although I would know many unionists that do think,like you ,that ‘The North’ is said only to wind up prods

You are suspicious guys lol

Hellokitty1212

downcow wrote: »

This is one of the greatest misunderstandings I hear from nationalists regularly.
I am very sensitive to the connotations of how you say Londonderry. My dad who was a unionist from Donegal who lived a while in Derry was the only unionist I knew who defaulted to ‘derry’. I have to check myself not to say Londonderry in most company as the natural for me to say is londonderry. I will usually say they maiden city’ or the ‘north west’ to try not to offend.
I was struck recently when I was with strangers and had reason to say the name of that city. I had ducked it by saying north west, and my daughter, who has almost exclusively nationalist friends and Challenges anyone who says anything negative about Ireland or Irish, automatically piped in and said Londonderry (just to be more specific). I pointed out to her afterwards that those were Catholics we were speaking to and I was surprised at her, of all people, saying Londonderry. She was completely unaware that she had even said it till I pointed it out and we had a laugh about me being the moderate.

So really you should drop that nonsense that every time a prod says Londonderry that they are having a go. I would equate it to nationalists saying ‘The North’ I don’t think, most of the time ‘The North’ is said for reaction either. Although I would know many unionists that do think,like you ,that ‘The North’ is said only to wind up prods

You are suspicious guys lol

I tend to say “the North” in conversation and “the Six Counties” in writing.

Neither to take the piss, just words.

downcow

Hellokitty1212 wrote: »

I tend to say “the North” in conversation and “the Six Counties” in writing.

Neither to take the piss, just words.

Thanks. Yes neither annoy me but I know they wind up many unionists because they jump to Bonnies position of assuming you have put thought into it and are trying to make a political point to wind them up.

downcow

Hellokitty1212 wrote: »

I tend to say “the North” in conversation and “the Six Counties” in writing.

Neither to take the piss, just words.

Thanks. Yes neither annoy me but I know they wind up many unionists because they jump to Bonnies position of assuming you have put thought into it and are trying to make a political point to wind them up.

downcow

FrancieBrady wrote: »

State Of The Union poll in Sunday Times.





All to play for.

I saw another bit of that poll that someone posted elsewhere which you didn’t have room for Francie. I was honestly surprised that over 50% more English people would be upset at losing NI from the UK than would be pleased to lose NI.
Fair play to them because we are expensive to keep.
I wonder would there be 50% more southerners pleased to get NI than there would be upset if they didn’t get us. What do you think?

FrancieBrady

downcow wrote: »

I saw another bit of that poll that someone posted elsewhere which you didn’t have room for Francie. I was honestly surprised that over 50% more English people would be upset at losing NI from the UK than would be pleased to lose NI.
Fair play to them because we are expensive to keep.
I wonder would there be 50% more southerners pleased to get NI than there would be upset if they didn’t get us. What do you think?

I'd be upset if I lost my wallet but I'd get over quick enough.

Natterjack from Kerry

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I'd be upset if I lost my wallet but I'd get over quick enough.

Thats quite the FrancieBrady tredemark non-answer there. Its words. Broadly grammatically correct. But making no sense what so ever.

FrancieBrady

Natterjack from Kerry wrote: »

Thats quite the FrancieBrady tredemark non-answer there. Its words. Broadly grammatically correct. But making no sense what so ever.

You ignore the fact that the poster downcow has made no comment on the polls I posted but found something he can gloat about.

I wouldn't spend too much thinking about how the British feel about losing NI, because that could mean they are simply upset about the Union breaking up or have a genuine love for NI itself..I don't know and care much tbh.

What answer was I supposed to give?

Capt'n Midnight

The only stable alternative to reunification would be a financially viable NI that works for everyone.

If Scotland gets independence then there is no justification for Westminster to continue to subsidise NI. And that issue will come front and centre if Scotland leave.

Since Brexit Gibraltar has joined Schengen, the Falklands the Channel Islands and other dependencies have been hit with tariffs on seafood exports to the EU. Aruba's lobsters are OK because of a US-EU deal on lobsters, but the UK wasn't involved. The British Virgin Islands , Guernsey and Jersey are now on the EU's tax evasion radar. The pattern here is that England isn't looking out for the other nations or islands. You could even include Cornwall in that given dearth of EU fund replacement or how the shellfish and other fisheries down there lost out.

jm08

downcow wrote: »

I saw another bit of that poll that someone posted elsewhere which you didn’t have room for Francie. I was honestly surprised that over 50% more English people would be upset at losing NI from the UK than would be pleased to lose NI.
Fair play to them because we are expensive to keep.
I wonder would there be 50% more southerners pleased to get NI than there would be upset if they didn’t get us. What do you think?

Most English people were not bothered. Most were not bothered in Scotland either.

Attitudes to Irish reunification
England voters:
Pleased 20%
Not bothered: 37%
Upset: 31%


Scotland voters:
Pleased 29%
Not bothered 42%
Upset: 21%

https://twitter.com/thesundaytimes/status/1353044013776035840/photo/1

downcow

downcow wrote: »

I saw another bit of that poll that someone posted elsewhere which you didn’t have room for Francie. I was honestly surprised that over 50% more English people would be upset at losing NI from the UK than would be pleased to lose NI.
Fair play to them because we are expensive to keep.
I wonder would there be 50% more southerners pleased to get NI than there would be upset if they didn’t get us. What do you think?

That has almost certainly to do with the loss of pride at their country being geographically diminished rather than a love for NI in itself. Remember Britannia rules the waves and all that guff. They'd hate to see that last of their empire dwindle away.

Natterjack from Kerry

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

If Scotland gets independence then there is no justification for Westminster to continue to subsidise NI. And that issue will come front and centre if Scotland leave.

Westminster does not subsidise Northern Ireland. Every country has transfers of wealth between different areas, with centres of high wealth and productivity, shouldering a greater part of the national bill than others. The idea of NI being a region 'supported' is nonsense. It is an integral part of the UK. The UK supports itself in it entirety.

Natterjack from Kerry

Natterjack from Kerry wrote: »

Westminster does not subsidise Northern Ireland. Every country has transfers of wealth between different areas, with centres of high wealth and productivity, shouldering a greater part of the national bill than others. The idea of NI being a region 'supported' is nonsense. It is an integral part of the UK. The UK supports itself in it entirety.

The workings of the Barnett formula makes it all the more glaring when it comes to UK transfers/subsidies, whichever you like. The Unionists are the ones most likely to be heard talking about this subvention.

tom1ie

tom1ie wrote: »

Folks, from an economic point of view would a United Ireland make sense?
The last I heard was that NI requires 5billion (pounds?) to keep it going every year.
How can the republic add that to its yearly balance sheet without either raising taxes or cutting services?

anyone care to comment? This is a fairly important point.

tom1ie

tom1ie wrote: »

anyone care to comment? This is a fairly important point.

Northern Ireland isn't run properly. A blind man could see this. It used to be a powerhouse of Ireland and contributed to UK. There has also been a serious brain drain. That needs to be reversed, and opportunities will do this, mostly benefiting PLU community.

In the short term it would be a drain on resources. But, it can help the Island of Ireland to prosper as a whole. Economy of scale for one.

So, yes, it would not be without some pain, but ultimately it will be the economic benefit of everyone on this island if we pooled together.

Capt'n Midnight

Deleted User wrote: »

That has almost certainly to do with the loss of pride at their country being geographically diminished rather than a love for NI in itself. Remember Britannia rules the waves and all that guff. They'd hate to see that last of their empire dwindle away.

Gibraltar has joined Schengen and Spain is enforcing the rules including immigration at the airport.

60% of revenue in the Falklands is derived from seafood exports to the EU. Joining Mercosur, the South American Trading Block, could be the quickest and easiest way to get around tariffs. Remnants of empire are being left to wither on the vine. Countries in the EU can deflect allegations of loose tax rules or years to come by directing them at UK protectorates. And in fairness those protectorates do account for a third of the dodgy money and much of the rest is US money in the US Virgin Islands.

The other strand was Empire 2.0 but that died a death when exports didn't go up when Sterling went down.


And we all know that Labour if they get in again will do even less for The Empire than Tories.

But little englanders can be still be proud of England. Make no mistake English Nationalism is likely to be the driving force behind Scottish Independence and Irish unification.

Capt'n Midnight

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

But little englanders can be still be proud of England. Make no mistake English Nationalism is likely to be the driving force behind Scottish Independence and Irish unification.

It could be argued that they have already done enough with Brexit, just needing time for that to fully sink in.

Of course if they refuse to give Scotland another referendum that will just help support nationalism. No democratic country, the mother of parliament no less, could hold out against granting another referendum against popular opinion indefinitely.

tom1ie

Deleted User wrote: »

Northern Ireland isn't run properly. A blind man could see this. It used to be a powerhouse of Ireland and contributed to UK. There has also been a serious brain drain. That needs to be reversed, and opportunities will do this, mostly benefiting PLU community.

In the short term it would be a drain on resources. But, it can help the Island of Ireland to prosper as a whole. Economy of scale for one.

So, yes, it would not be without some pain, but ultimately it will be the economic benefit of everyone on this island if we pooled together.

That's very optimistic!
What resources or private jobs can be put in place/ created that haven't been by the uk government, and if we can put these resources in place in the North why wouldn't we create those jobs in the south?

tom1ie

tom1ie wrote: »

That's very optimistic!
What resources or private jobs can be put in place/ created that haven't been by the uk government, and if we can put these resources in place in the North why wouldn't we create those jobs in the south?

The ROI was at full capacity employment wise pre pandemic. NI has an educated workforce, but a lot of them bugger off to GB because there isn't enough private sector work. They could be kept in employment locally (in time) in a UI.

As to why the UK hasn't bothered with the most peripheral part of their country, you might do best directing that question by writing to.

Mr Boris Johnson,
10 Downing Street
London
UK

BonnieSituation

blanch152 wrote: »

This is what you said, two referenda, one wording.

That is not what the above post says.

I know what I wrote. Thanks for the reminder.

Have you anything substantive to ask or shall we do this little dance?

BonnieSituation

blanch152 wrote: »

A border poll held before it is clear that it is likely that it will be passed, is by definition divisive, as it breaches the terms of the GFA.

Right.

So subscribe to the idea of it "appearing likely" that it will pass as the measure of the criteria of it being called?

Does that also preclude us from discussing it at all until then as well?

Do you think that Partitionists and belligerent Unionists should have a veto on all aspects of the discussion so that they don't feel uncomfortable?

Just thinking... We should ask the UK to take on NI's proportion of National Debt rather than transfer it to the UI (the UK's debt is massive). That way the new Country (Ireland's debt) reduces to approx:-

ROI National Debt reduces to approx 5/7ths of existing debt per person of UI. That's the least the rUK can do for its former citizens.

BonnieSituation

downcow wrote: »

This is one of the greatest misunderstandings I hear from nationalists regularly.
I am very sensitive to the connotations of how you say Londonderry. My dad who was a unionist from Donegal who lived a while in Derry was the only unionist I knew who defaulted to ‘derry’. I have to check myself not to say Londonderry in most company as the natural for me to say is londonderry. I will usually say they maiden city’ or the ‘north west’ to try not to offend.
I was struck recently when I was with strangers and had reason to say the name of that city. I had ducked it by saying north west, and my daughter, who has almost exclusively nationalist friends and Challenges anyone who says anything negative about Ireland or Irish, automatically piped in and said Londonderry (just to be more specific). I pointed out to her afterwards that those were Catholics we were speaking to and I was surprised at her, of all people, saying Londonderry. She was completely unaware that she had even said it till I pointed it out and we had a laugh about me being the moderate.

So really you should drop that nonsense that every time a prod says Londonderry that they are having a go. I would equate it to nationalists saying ‘The North’ I don’t think, most of the time ‘The North’ is said for reaction either. Although I would know many unionists that do think,like you ,that ‘The North’ is said only to wind up prods

You are suspicious guys lol

Whataboutery, projection and things that didn't happen for $1000

Natterjack from Kerry

blanch152 wrote: »

A border poll held before it is clear that it is likely that it will be passed, is by definition divisive, as it breaches the terms of the GFA.

Then it wont happen. The discussion is pointless.

tom1ie

Deleted User wrote: »

The ROI was at full capacity employment wise pre pandemic. NI has an educated workforce, but a lot of them bugger off to GB because there isn't enough private sector work. They could be kept in employment locally (in time) in a UI.

As to why the UK hasn't bothered with the most peripheral part of their country, you might do best directing that question by writing to.

Mr Boris Johnson,
10 Downing Street
London
UK

so how long would you be willing to carry an EXTRA 5 billion worth of debt to keep NI afloat?

tom1ie

Deleted User wrote: »

Just thinking... We should ask the UK to take on NI's proportion of National Debt rather than transfer it to the UI (the UK's debt is massive). That way the new Country (Ireland's debt) reduces to approx:-

ROI National Debt reduces to approx 5/7ths of existing debt per person of UI. That's the least the rUK can do for its former citizens.

how realistic do you think that is?

tom1ie

tom1ie wrote: »

so how long would you be willing to carry an EXTRA 5 billion worth of debt to keep NI afloat?

I see it as an investment. A bit like investing in a new business at ground zero. And if you see my subsequent point it potentially becomes self funding.

tom1ie

tom1ie wrote: »

how realistic do you think that is?

VERY. The least they could do. Besides they'd be saving £5b per year.