Northern Ireland- a failure 99 years on?

cameramonkey

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/feb/06/ireland-conservatives-dup-union-brexit

Pretty hard hitting destruction of the DUP and Tories. Pretty funny really could not happen to a nicer bunch of lads
.

droidman123

cameramonkey wrote: »

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/feb/06/ireland-conservatives-dup-union-brexit

Pretty hard hitting destruction of the DUP and Tories. Pretty funny really could not happen to a nicer bunch of lads
.

Unfortunately in our wee country of ireland there are some people in the six occupied counties that will still vote for the DUP

Five Eighth

cameramonkey wrote: »

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/feb/06/ireland-conservatives-dup-union-brexit

Pretty hard hitting destruction of the DUP and Tories. Pretty funny really could not happen to a nicer bunch of lads
.

Thanks for sharing the article. Very incisive. DUPes became dazed with power. Hanging out with their Tory masters helped them feel important and wanted. They displayed no strategic awareness. Their myopic drive to recreate a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland spectacularly backfired. Watched a Channel4 news interview with a unionist farmer after the Brexit vote was carried. He told the interviewer that his farm business would be devastated if a hard border was created between the two jurisdictions. He then went on to say that he is a DUP supporter and voted Out in the Brexit referendum. The mind boggles.

Sunny Disposition

Very depressing stuff lately.
PSNI breaking up a Catholic commemoration, but not intervening in a loyalist assembly, that’s really bad, there’s no tradition of Catholic policemen or women, this has made it harder. Loyalist posters going up, who are they planning to fight over this sea border?
Brexit is exposing how dysfunctional the North really is, I’d be worried about things now. Ireland isn’t ready for the Border to go, it needs maybe 10-15 more years, but that mightn’t be available. Events might easily overtake us very soon.

Speedline

The protocol is being ignored by the UK, I would imagine in part by unionist prompting. I think they may have shot themselves in the foot. EU are now involved.

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2021/0303/1200619-brexit-northern-ireland-protocol/

saabsaab

maccored wrote: »

plus irish unionisn has a one word dictionary - 'NEVER!'

No!

blanch152

https://2sjjwunnql41ia7ki31qqub1-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Final_p011076_NI.pdf


Surprised that this recent poll hasn't featured here.

It shows only 43% in favour of a united Ireland with 57% wanting to stay in the UK.

Very significant difference.

jm08

blanch152 wrote: »

https://2sjjwunnql41ia7ki31qqub1-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Final_p011076_NI.pdf


Surprised that this recent poll hasn't featured here.

It shows only 43% in favour of a united Ireland with 57% wanting to stay in the UK.

Very significant difference.

It was. Look back the thread.

Annd9

blanch152 wrote: »

https://2sjjwunnql41ia7ki31qqub1-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Final_p011076_NI.pdf


Surprised that this recent poll hasn't featured here.

It shows only 43% in favour of a united Ireland with 57% wanting to stay in the UK.

Very significant difference.

Considering only 7 years ago the Scots voted 55/45 in the referendum and are now poling at roughly 50/50 (being generous here, pro independence has been mostly ahead) it's not that much of a difference to make up .
If we factor in the Brexit ****show only begining and the Tories managing to piss absolutely everyone off , who knows what it will be like in 2 years never mind 7 .

maccored

blanch152 wrote: »

https://2sjjwunnql41ia7ki31qqub1-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Final_p011076_NI.pdf


Surprised that this recent poll hasn't featured here.

It shows only 43% in favour of a united Ireland with 57% wanting to stay in the UK.

Very significant difference.

510 people sampled, 318 from the east (predominantly unionist) side of the place, 82 from the north of the region, 62 from the south and a measly 48 from the more nationalist area of the west. really, there should have been more than 510 people sampled and an even number from each area

blanch152

Annd9 wrote: »

Considering only 7 years ago the Scots voted 55/45 in the referendum and are now poling at roughly 50/50 (being generous here, pro independence has been mostly ahead) it's not that much of a difference to make up .
If we factor in the Brexit ****show only begining and the Tories managing to piss absolutely everyone off , who knows what it will be like in 2 years never mind 7 .

If you go through the details of the poll, the Brexit ****show doesn't feature much as influencing voting patterns.

One thing that may affect it, because it is everyday life is the vaccination rate. The UK success there may make people think twice.

jh79

maccored wrote: »

510 people sampled, 318 from the east (predominantly unionist) side of the place, 82 from the north of the region, 62 from the south and a measly 48 from the more nationalist area of the west. really, there should have been more than 510 people sampled and an even number from each area

Sorry Maccored, that sample size is perfectly adequate for the population. Also the religion of those polled was noted.

Handy website here;

http://www.raosoft.com/samplesize.html

A quarter of Catholics would not vote for a UI with only 7% of Protestant willing to vote for a UI.

FrancieBrady

maccored wrote: »

510 people sampled, 318 from the east (predominantly unionist) side of the place, 82 from the north of the region, 62 from the south and a measly 48 from the more nationalist area of the west. really, there should have been more than 510 people sampled and an even number from each area

Poll done for a TV programme that was like a plaintive pleading advertisement for the Union by all accounts.

jh79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Poll done for a TV programme that was like a plaintive pleading advertisement for the Union by all accounts.

How do you mean? Questions asked were straight forward. The sample size was fine and the weightings and distribution of those polled all good too.

maccored

jh79 wrote: »

How do you mean? Questions asked were straight forward. The sample size was fine and the weightings and distribution of those polled all good too.

what, 310 from the east and only 48 from the west? The north has a divide where the east is more loyalist than the west.

maccored

jh79 wrote: »

Sorry Maccored, that sample size is perfectly adequate for the population. Also the religion of those polled was noted.

Handy website here;

http://www.raosoft.com/samplesize.html

A quarter of Catholics would not vote for a UI with only 7% of Protestant willing to vote for a UI.

did we have a secret border poll or something? until we do theres no definitive answer to what people want

FrancieBrady

jh79 wrote: »

How do you mean? Questions asked were straight forward. The sample size was fine and the weightings and distribution of those polled all good too.

I understand why you would have no questions to ask about the methodology and sample. As maccored points out it is eyebrow raising and coupled with the nature of the programme it was conducted for, extremely dubious in outcome.

As a poll of that particular sample I wouldn't expect the outcome to be any different.

And as already said elsewhere, anywhere within ten to fifteen points before a campaign starts isn't anything to be worried about, particularly. The Scots Ref closed a gap like that as if it wasn't there.

Fionn1952

jh79 wrote: »

How do you mean? Questions asked were straight forward. The sample size was fine and the weightings and distribution of those polled all good too.

You and I have already hashed out the sampling size side of things well enough at this point, but such an uneven geographical split certainly implies questionable methodology which could potentially impact the reliability of the poll. While it could be absolutely fine, if one wanted to skew their polling data a certain way, given what we know about NI, that would be a pretty good way of doing it. (Not saying that was the case, just that it is plausible).

Do you have a link to what questions were asked by the way?

jh79

Fionn1952 wrote: »

You and I have already hashed out the sampling size side of things well enough at this point, but such an uneven geographical split certainly implies questionable methodology which could potentially impact the reliability of the poll. While it could be absolutely fine, if one wanted to skew their polling data a certain way, given what we know about NI, that would be a pretty good way of doing it. (Not saying that was the case, just that it is plausible).

Do you have a link to what questions were asked by the way?

If there were a Border poll tomorrow on the future of Northern Ireland, how would you vote?

https://2sjjwunnql41ia7ki31qqub1-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Final_p011076_NI.pdf

jh79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I understand why you would have no questions to ask about the methodology and sample. As maccored points out it is eyebrow raising and coupled with the nature of the programme it was conducted for, extremely dubious in outcome.

As a poll of that particular sample I wouldn't expect the outcome to be any different.

And as already said elsewhere, anywhere within ten to fifteen points before a campaign starts isn't anything to be worried about, particularly. The Scots Ref closed a gap like that as if it wasn't there.

Purely from a technical point of view I'm curious what you think the flaws are? It took into account their religion and social grade, I'm not sure how geography would skew the data?

blanch152

jh79 wrote: »

Sorry Maccored, that sample size is perfectly adequate for the population. Also the religion of those polled was noted.

Handy website here;

http://www.raosoft.com/samplesize.html

A quarter of Catholics would not vote for a UI with only 7% of Protestant willing to vote for a UI.

That comment by maccored shows no understanding of how polls are conducted. It is equivalent to suggesting that every county should be equally represented in a poll down South.

The population of the North is heavily east-biased, hence the sampling reflects that bias!!

blanch152

Fionn1952 wrote: »

You and I have already hashed out the sampling size side of things well enough at this point, but such an uneven geographical split certainly implies questionable methodology which could potentially impact the reliability of the poll. While it could be absolutely fine, if one wanted to skew their polling data a certain way, given what we know about NI, that would be a pretty good way of doing it. (Not saying that was the case, just that it is plausible).

Do you have a link to what questions were asked by the way?

The link to the full poll was already provided.

blanch152 wrote: »

https://2sjjwunnql41ia7ki31qqub1-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Final_p011076_NI.pdf


Surprised that this recent poll hasn't featured here.

It shows only 43% in favour of a united Ireland with 57% wanting to stay in the UK.

Very significant difference.

FrancieBrady

jh79 wrote: »

Purely from a technical point of view I'm curious what you think the flaws are? It took into account their religion and social grade, I'm not sure how geography would skew the data?

Even the question jh79, even the question is flawed.

So people won't be voting in a majority tomorrow. I fecking knew that.

blanch152

Fionn1952 wrote: »

You and I have already hashed out the sampling size side of things well enough at this point, but such an uneven geographical split certainly implies questionable methodology which could potentially impact the reliability of the poll. While it could be absolutely fine, if one wanted to skew their polling data a certain way, given what we know about NI, that would be a pretty good way of doing it. (Not saying that was the case, just that it is plausible).

Do you have a link to what questions were asked by the way?

The uneven geographical split matches the uneven geographical population distribution, thereby increasing the accuracy of the poll, not decreasing it.

jh79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Even the question jh79, even the question is flawed.

So people won't be voting in a majority tomorrow. I fecking knew that.

You'd hardly ask what would you vote in a border poll in 2050!

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Even the question jh79, even the question is flawed.

So people won't be voting in a majority tomorrow. I fecking knew that.

It certainly gives a much better measurement of support for a united Ireland than a poll which asks whether you would vote for a united Ireland sometime in the far distant future when it is a land of milk and honey.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

It certainly gives a much better measurement of support for a united Ireland than a poll which asks whether you would vote for a united Ireland sometime in the far distant future when it is a land of milk and honey.

What poll was that?

jh79

blanch152 wrote: »

It certainly gives a much better measurement of support for a united Ireland than a poll which asks whether you would vote for a united Ireland sometime in the far distant future when it is a land of milk and honey.

Originally it was the sample size that was the problem until two regular Republican posters who happen to be data analysts debunked that claim.

Still, was expecting a better comeback than the question! Even worse excuse than the "issue" with the poll in the Republic.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

The uneven geographical split matches the uneven geographical population distribution, thereby increasing the accuracy of the poll, not decreasing it.

Which just happens to have a high concentration of Unionist opinion. Poll conducted for a programme heavily slanted in lamenting the breakup of the Union...do you need a diagram here?

maccored

blanch152 wrote: »

That comment by maccored shows no understanding of how polls are conducted. It is equivalent to suggesting that every county should be equally represented in a poll down South.

The population of the North is heavily east-biased, hence the sampling reflects that bias!!

and it just so happens a sizeable percentage of the unionist population lives in the east. very handy. :rolleyes: