Northern Ireland- a failure 99 years on?

FrancieBrady

jh79 wrote: »

I was referring to the ridiculous excitement over the previous poll showing the majority wanting to remain in the UK. For some bizarre reason you were claiming it as some sort of victory.

Where was that?


Are we going to go down the familiar route of misrepresentation and lies now?

jh79

Francie, for the North /South/East/West split in the poll, what do you claim is the most representative split?

61 17 13 9
E N S W

That's the % in the poll

blanch152

Fionn1952 wrote: »

Yes, there is a difference. The poll is not representative of that difference.

Antrim/Down/Armagh have a population of ~1.3 million, Fermanagh/Derry/Tyrone around 600,000. A 2:1 East to West split is not anywhere near what is reflected in that poll.

East: 318
North: 82
South: 62
West: 48

318:192

East versus the rest, slight bias against the East according to your figures?

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I'm saying the exact same thing as Fionn, albeit less eloquently.

Relax jh79...I'm happy with that poll funnily enough, it is exactly as I would expect it to be at this stage and with the parameters.

Given that the nationalist parties are now struggling to keep their share of the vote over 40%, getting as much as 43% in favour of unity is quite a success story in relative terms.

A long way off towards a united Ireland but we could look maybe in another couple of generations.

FrancieBrady

jh79 wrote: »

Francie, for the North /South/East/West split in the poll, what do you claim is the most representative split?

61 17 13 9
E N S W

That's the % in the poll

How about you answering the question asked? Where was I claiming a 'victory'?

Fionn1952

jh79 wrote: »

Francie, for the North /South/East/West split in the poll, what do you claim is the most representative split?

61 17 13 9
E N S W

That's the % in the poll

Not to answer on Francie's behalf, but it is entirely dependent on how we split N/E/S/W.

If it was split by your suggestion

Antrim / Derry be North, Down would be East, Tyrone be West and the rest South?

the sample would be even more poorly biased with 61% of the polling data covering Co. Down (about 25% of the population).

Digging a bit deeper, I must say that the geographical sampling might not be as far off if it is split as 1) Fermanagh/South Tyrone and West Tyrone as West, 2) Newry/Armagh and South Down as South, 3) East Antrim, South Antrim, the 4 Belfast constituencies, Upper Bann, Lagan Valley and Strangford as East and 4) Foyle, East Derry, Mid Ulster and North Antrim as North.

That's the only way I could break it down that would be anywhere close.

Fionn1952

blanch152 wrote: »

East: 318
North: 82
South: 62
West: 48

318:192

East versus the rest, slight bias against the East according to your figures?

The 2:1 split is just East/West, so unless the North/South split of the poll is entirely West of the Bann (why else would you be sticking North, South and West together?) then no. I've suggested a way it may be split that could be relatively reflective of the actual population split though.

blanch152

Fionn1952 wrote: »

The 2:1 split is just East/West, so unless the North/South split of the poll is entirely West of the Bann (why else would you be sticking North, South and West together?) then no. I've suggested a way it may be split that could be relatively reflective of the actual population split though.

I would agree with your suggestion. As in the South, such polls are usually based around constituencies.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

Given that the nationalist parties are now struggling to keep their share of the vote over 40%, getting as much as 43% in favour of unity is quite a success story in relative terms.

A long way off towards a united Ireland but we could look maybe in another couple of generations.

2012, Scottish Independence was polling at just 32% of the population.

They closed that gap to parity and even went ahead before London intervened and promised the sun moon and stars (which they won't be able to do here) to skew it back.

Trust me blanch, that poll doesn't 'feature' very high in my concerns.

jh79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I'm saying the exact same thing as Fionn, albeit less eloquently.

Relax jh79...I'm happy with that poll funnily enough, it is exactly as I would expect it to be at this stage and with the parameters.

Maybe you should read it fully first. Lots of different questions were asked including support for a border poll in the future.

1 year = -21% in support of a border poll
2 years = -5%
5 years = -1%
10 years = +3%
20 years = -6%

Looks like the majority want to see how Brexit fares out but looks like at least a decade before it has support just for the poll.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

2012, Scottish Independence was polling at just 32% of the population.

They closed that gap to parity and even went ahead before London intervened and promised the sun moon and stars (which they won't be able to do here) to skew it back.

Trust me blanch, that poll doesn't 'feature' very high in my concerns.

It doesn't really matter whether it features very high in your concerns or mine.

The real question is what influence such polls have on the evidence required for the SOS to conclude it is likely (i.e. more probable than not) that a border poll would pass.

Given your point that polls on these issues swing wildly, he would need quite a number of polls showing similar levels as this one in favour of rather than against a united Ireland before concluding it was likely to pass.

jh79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

2012, Scottish Independence was polling at just 32% of the population.

They closed that gap to parity and even went ahead before London intervened and promised the sun moon and stars (which they won't be able to do here) to skew it back.

Trust me blanch, that poll doesn't 'feature' very high in my concerns.

The poll also asked if the Scottish referendum would change their mind. 13% swing in favour of unification.

Is it a good poll now Francie, ?

FrancieBrady

jh79 wrote: »

Maybe you should read it fully first. Lots of different questions were asked including support for a border poll in the future.

1 year = -21% in support of a border poll
2 years = -5%
5 years = -1%
10 years = +3%
20 years = -6%

Looks like the majority want to see how Brexit fares out but looks like at least a decade before it has support just for the poll.

blanch152 wrote: »

It doesn't really matter whether it features very high in your concerns or mine.

The real question is what influence such polls have on the evidence required for the SOS to conclude it is likely (i.e. more probable than not) that a border poll would pass.

Given your point that polls on these issues swing wildly, he would need quite a number of polls showing similar levels as this one in favour of rather than against a united Ireland before concluding it was likely to pass.

Seems you guys have nothing to worry about so.

blanch152

jh79 wrote: »

The poll also asked if the Scottish referendum would change their mind. 13% swing in favour of unification.

Is it a good poll now Francie, ?

You mean in favour of independence?

Another uncomfortable finding from the poll was that 52% of the English population would care if Irish unification happened, while only 28% would not care. Excluding don't knows puts that at 65% caring.

The indifference of the English to Northern Ireland is probably hugely overstated by posters on here.

jh79

blanch152 wrote: »

You mean in favour of independence?

Another uncomfortable finding from the poll was that 52% of the English population would care if Irish unification happened, while only 28% would not care. Excluding don't knows puts that at 65% caring.

The indifference of the English to Northern Ireland is probably hugely overstated by posters on here.

13% would likely change their vote to support Unification if Scotland leaves.

blanch152

jh79 wrote: »

13% would likely change their vote to support Unification if Scotland leaves.

That explains some of the thoughts here:

https://sluggerotoole.com/2021/02/28/unionism-needs-to-step-out-from-the-shadows-on-the-unity-referendum-question/

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

That explains some of the thoughts here:

https://sluggerotoole.com/2021/02/28/unionism-needs-to-step-out-from-the-shadows-on-the-unity-referendum-question/

I couldn't have put it any better than this but to add that southern partitionists suffer from the same denials.

Denial of reality is a trait within certain elements of unionism. It is often combined with wishful thinking and can be a dangerous thing to suffer from. It was after all the denial of reality of Northern Ireland’s unique constitutional position that led to the implementation of an Irish Sea border over the heads of unionism. This is not a new thing. Elements of unionism have been in denial for much of its history. Remember it denied the reality of powersharing. It denied the reality of the Anglo Irish Agreement. It is currently denying the reality of the NI Protocol. You should therefore not be astounded by a belief within unionism that a referendum will never happen. Denial of reality and wishful thinking are traits which are also strong within religious fundamentalism and Trumpism. Which is another reason why you should not be astounded at these traits within certain elements of unionism.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I couldn't have put it any better than this but to add that southern partitionists suffer from the same denials.

A quite interesting take on it though, hold a unity referendum on condition of no other one for 30 years.

jh79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I couldn't have put it any better than this but to add that southern partitionists suffer from the same denials.

Denials of what exactly for those in the Republic?

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

A quite interesting take on it though, hold a unity referendum on condition of no other one for 30 years.

Again with the pathetic pleading to change an agreement that has already been entered into.

The GFA, The Withdrawal Agreement, The NI Protocol.

What is it about democracy that so frightens people?

FrancieBrady

jh79 wrote: »

Denials of what exactly for those in the Republic?

This bit could equally be applied to some of our partitionists.

You should therefore not be astounded by a belief within unionism that a referendum will never happen. Denial of reality and wishful thinking are traits which are also strong within religious fundamentalism and Trumpism.

landofthetree

SF and the South are too neoliberal for the North.

SF want corpo tax at 12.5%. They favour billionaires paying low taxes. FFS even the Tories couldn't support that.

That isnt popular with Nordies who love the welfare state as a way of life.

jh79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

This bit could equally be applied to some of our partitionists.

Well yes, saying it will never happen is wishful thinking but so is saying it will happen. At the moment it doesn't look like happening anytime soon.

FrancieBrady

jh79 wrote: »

Well yes, saying it will never happen is wishful thinking but so is saying it will happen. At the moment it doesn't look like happening anytime soon.

Is it more likely to happen now than it was 5 years ago? Absolutely, poll or not.

There are many other factors to consider. And as we know the SoS does not have to rely on polls or offer them as evidence of his decision. (see court case on issue)

jh79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Is it more likely to happen now than it was 5 years ago? Absolutely, poll or not.

There are many other factors to consider. And as we know the SoS does not have to rely on polls or offer them as evidence of his decision. (see court case on issue)

Based on polls it's way off. Can't seen why the SoS state would call one given the likelihood of failure, that would solve nothing for the British.

Fionn1952

jh79 wrote: »

Based on polls it's way off. Can't seen why the SoS state would call one given the likelihood of failure, that would solve nothing for the British.

In the (likely) event that we have a SF First Minister and a more elected Nationalist representatives than Unionist after the next election cycle, it could be argued that passes the, 'likely to pass' test if one was so minded.

If a (hypothetical) poll demonstrated 49% in favour of Unification and 51% against it with a significant number of don't knows, it could still be argued as, 'unlikely to pass' if one was so minded.

Ultimately the Secretary of State will establish his own criteria, as there are no defined criteria in place which could force his hand either way.

My own suspicion is that it will end up being called for whenever it is politically expedient for the sitting British government with little consideration for NI one way or another.

jh79

Fionn1952 wrote: »

In the (likely) event that we have a SF First Minister and a more elected Nationalist representatives than Unionist after the next election cycle, it could be argued that passes the, 'likely to pass' test if one was so minded.

If a (hypothetical) poll demonstrated 49% in favour of Unification and 51% against it with a significant number of don't knows, it could still be argued as, 'unlikely to pass' if one was so minded.

Ultimately the Secretary of State will establish his own criteria, as there are no defined criteria in place which could force his hand either way.

I get that bit but the idea that the SoS would just call one, with opinion polls showing a clear win for remaining in the UK, makes no sense.

FrancieBrady

jh79 wrote: »

Based on polls it's way off. Can't seen why the SoS state would call one given the likelihood of failure, that would solve nothing for the British.

As Britain is more and more cutailed I can see how they would call one.
Horses for courses etc etc

jh79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

As Britain is more and more cutailed I can see how they would call one.
Horses for courses etc etc

As you said yourself, if a poll was held tomorrow it would fail. So what would the British gain by calling for a poll when it is obvious it would fail?

I'd get it if the % were closer but the risk is too great for it to make sense.

FrancieBrady

jh79 wrote: »

As you said yourself, if a poll was held tomorrow it would fail. So what would the British gain by calling for a poll when it is obvious it would fail?

I'd get it if the % were closer but the risk is too great for it to make sense.

I would imagine a poll will be at least 2 years after it is called.

A 'campaign' will hugely influence polls and people