Storm Ellen - 19th/20th August 2020

Bejubby

Easy nowðŸ˜

nacho libre

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Ophelia was a bigger event here, both in terms of wind speed and general damage, and we missed the worst of it!

I'm sorry i missed it. It will be interesting to see Sryan's table to see where this one ranks with other August Storms. I can't recall having too many of them myself.

Neddyusa

Hammer Archer wrote: »

Mace Head got Orange and borerline red wind speeds. I understand that that's very exposed compared to other parts of the county. However, if you look at the amount of trees down in this link, it certainly wasn't an ordinary wet and windy night.


All it takes is one tree down in the wrong place to cause a major power outage. And that could be the difference between one person thinking "this is the worst storm ever" and another a few miles down the road thinking "that was a nothing storm". It does, however, lend credence to the thinking that we should do away with county-wide warnings, though that in itself could cause it's own problems.
And Met Éireann do take the impacts of the weather into account, as is described on their website.

Personally I think Met Eireann got it right, more or less. It's still an inexact science and this storm in particular seemed to be very difficult to nail down even yesterday. I think the proof of that is that the amount of people that were bigging it up last night that they'd get it completely wrong are nowhere to be seen today.

Agree to some extent (county warning for Galway in respect of forecast for Mace head) - but within a few km of here alone there were hundreds of trees down. In a "yellow" area.

If MT (and most model guidance) was able to see at 5pm yesterday that the track of strongest winds was to the east of co Galway - ME should have adjusted their warnings rather than indicate that the worst was towards the west coast.

Neddyusa

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Ophelia was a bigger event here, both in terms of wind speed and general damage, and we missed the worst of it!

Opposite here - just 30 miles east of you - and Ophelia was bad here

Rebelbrowser

I thought Darwin and Ophelia were bigger here in Cork. That said there are 3 ca. 25 year old trees down in my estate. No trees fell in my estate during the other two storms. Foliage the issue I presume.

igCorcaigh

I didn't experience much sustained winds, but extremely strong gusts that jolted the house, alongside periods of calm but with a lot of noise and whistling sounds.

Might be because I'm in the city centre with buildings close to each other.

Gaoth Laidir

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Just some of his claims from his LinkedIn page...

By the way, he studied politics at UCD and has just started a "climate change" PhD, but not sure if it's on the science or politics of it.

It's on 'Assessing the multi factorial drivers in the irish fodder crisis'

I'm sure there are lots of reasons why people believe him - confirmation bias?

Hawthorn Tree

Ophelia was a fairly non event in Galway city but on the other hand Storm Ali was a massive 2 hour experience in Galway.
I saw several trees actually falling over on the way to work. It was epic. I always thought a tree falling would be a slow "timmmmbbberrrrrrrr" type action but I was surprised how quick a tree comes down. No warning, no chance of escape.

Sryanbruen's chart will tell a lot.

SleetAndSnow

Driving around the different peninsulas of west cork, they are all taking some hammering today. The sea is wild and angry. Huge waves.

igCorcaigh

Bit of a gale picking up again.
I wonder if there will be any flooding this evening.

Graces7

Wild and very loud and windy out here and very bright too. The elderberry outside the window is bending almost to the ground.

aidanodr

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Bit of a gale picking up again.
I wonder if there will be any flooding this evening.

https://twitter.com/corkcitycouncil/status/1296406295269040128

CiarraiAbu2

Looking at Met Eireann, Donegal seems to be lit up like a Christmas tree at the moment.

froog

Sky darkening in east cork now. Should have power back within the hour according to esb. Feel sorry for the people who have to wait until tommorow.

Graces7

We never get power cuts out here. Well very rarely. One in the four years I have been here.

Longing for the noise to stop and the sun to go to bed as dratted gale etc resulted in a migraine. Lack of sleep does that!

realdanbreen

Deleted User wrote: »

I'd say there's a fairly good chance of rain tonight.

Really? Although of course you do know that's not the question I asked.:rolleyes:

M.T. Cranium

nacho libre wrote: »

You are unlucky.
It was orange level in parts of East Galway, East Mayo and Roscommon. It was the strongest wind i've experienced in a long time. Although i was not here for Ophelia, so maybe that one was just as good/worst depending on your point view. As has been said M.T Cranium was on the money again. Can a Canadian become president? Or is that taking things too far:)

Too far by a considerable amount. I would just say that model consensus worked out perhaps better than any one model taken alone, which is always the safe route to take. Sometimes the outcome is not explicitly shown on any model but their average (weighted by reliability) can be quite good, much like with our forecast contest where "Con Sensus" is one of the top performers on a regular basis.

Big thanks should go to Meteorite58 (again) who took my rather lame opening post and guided the thread to something that the boards community could find useful.

M.T. Cranium

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

But that aside, yes, I would agree that M.T should nominate himself for leadership in this country. Practical; methodical; sees bull**** for what it is and cuts straight through it; has a sense of humour etc. Basically, traits that our shower of brain dead, soulless, money hungry gombeens lack.

Yes but politics has a way of exposing all of one's faults so for that reason alone I would prefer any other occupation, or even better, no occupation beyond the research I am doing, as an otherwise retired person.

Anyway, the people suggesting me for high office would bring the same attributes plus actual eligibility as residents and (I presume) citizens, so right back at ya, guys.

To quote Kanye West, "our country faces a brutal choice between two old, erratic, out of touch men. I bring the prospect of something much better -- a middle-aged, erratic, out of touch man who won't die during the term, so you won't have to consider the suitability of my running mate, who by the way is also my divorce attorney so I can multi-task the dude."

teednab-el

jackrussel wrote: »

You’re almost as bad as that oldsnowy fool. Wouldn’t be surprised if you’re the same person.

Thanks for your insightful and intelligent response. You are onto something well done.

Oscar Bravo

Status Yellow - Wind warning for Dublin, Louth, Wexford, Wicklow, Meath, Cork, Kerry and Waterford


Very strong winds (south to southeast veering southwest tonight) with severe and damaging gusts will result in further disruption. Some coastal flooding will occur also.

Valid: 17:00 Thursday 20/08/2020 to 05:00 Friday 21/08/2020

Issued: 17:09 Thursday 20/08/2020

redsteveireland

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

He got 'retweeted' by politicians yesterday, which is how I came across him. Basically, he informed us that AGW was causing all our weather and that we need to change our ways. That isn't science - it's preaching in the most fundamentalist sense of the word in order to garner influence with those who hold power. To wit: empty posturing.

I had some interesting conversations with some of his supporters today. Typical read the headline only people.

Storm 10

Highest gust of wind my station in Galway City recorded was 105km per hour at around 3am

SleetAndSnow

High tide in clon is in 2 hours or so, my local beaches (long strand, owenahincha and the Warren), and specifically owenahincha, are nearly covering the beach already. Really really.high tides it seems

Oscar Bravo

Status Yellow - Wind warning for Carlow and Kilkenny


Very strong southerly winds with some damaging gusts will result in disruption in places.

Valid: 22:00 Thursday 20/08/2020 to 23:59 Thursday 20/08/2020

Issued: 17:00 Thursday 20/08/2020

sryanbruen

Here is the storm comparison table for maximum wind gusts updated to include Storm Ellen and on this occasion, I have added a special addition of comparing previous August depressions though only a select few rather than too many.

Johnstown Castle is replaced with Rosslare data in the August table after Ellen. The table is getting a bit big to say the least!

For those that are new, each cell is colour coded based on the necessary warning level using the official system by Met Eireann.

Yellow = 90-110 kph
Orange = 111-130 kph
Red = 131+ kph

All data shown is sourced from Met Eireann.

To summarise the records:

The gust of 143 kph at Roches Point is a new national August record. The Claremorris 78 kt (144 kph) gust on 11 August 1999 is an error and it's puzzling why Met Eireann continue to regard it as otherwise.

Same station, Roches Point, had a max 10-minute mean speed of 111 kph which is a new national August record smashing 83 kph at Malin Head on 9 August 1973.

Minimum pressure was 966.4 hPa at Athenry which is a new national August record beating the previous record of 967.8 hPa at Belmullet on 14 August 1959.



And for the much less interesting part... here's a random wave pic I took today at high tide at Greystones and a video of my experiences of the event.

igCorcaigh

River Lee already looking quite high. High tide due at 19:33.

dsmythy

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Status Yellow - Wind warning for Carlow and Kilkenny


Very strong southerly winds with some damaging gusts will result in disruption in places.

Valid: 22:00 Thursday 20/08/2020 to 23:59 Thursday 20/08/2020

Issued: 17:00 Thursday 20/08/2020

2 hour event. Now that's specific. Presuming it happens ME are doing very well here.

Seamai

igCorcaigh wrote: »

River Lee already looking quite high. High tide due at 19:33.

That doesn't look good with over an hour and twenty minutes to go to high tide.

An Ri rua

Well done Sryanbruen. Nice work.

Got to say s storm must be a really bad one when it's officially named a ballbag.

Up here in Laois, last night wasn't as bad as Ali. Sustained winds not worrying. A fee gusts certainly were.

Wild Field 1831

sryanbruen wrote: »

Here is the storm comparison table for maximum wind gusts updated to include Storm Ellen and on this occasion, I have added a special addition of comparing previous August depressions though only a select few rather than too many.

Johnstown Castle is replaced with Rosslare data in the August table after Ellen. The table is getting a bit big to say the least!

For those that are new, each cell is colour coded based on the necessary warning level using the official system by Met Eireann.

Yellow = 90-110 kph
Orange = 111-130 kph
Red = 131+ kph

All data shown is sourced from Met Eireann.

To summarise the records:

The gust of 143 kph at Roches Point is a new national August record. The Claremorris 78 kt (144 kph) gust on 11 August 1999 is an error and it's puzzling why Met Eireann continue to regard it as otherwise.

Same station, Roches Point, had a max 10-minute mean speed of 111 kph which is a new national August record smashing 83 kph at Malin Head on 9 August 1973.

Minimum pressure was 966.4 hPa (unsure on station) which is a new national August record beating the previous record of 967.8 hPa at Belmullet on 14 August 1959.



And for the much less interesting part... here's a random wave pic I took today at high tide at Greystones and a video at Clontarf promenade from last night.

I'd love if you posted that and challenged Mr. IWC with that chart. Particularly red, orange, yellow gust comparison with Ophelia. Somebody as knowledgeable as yourself could do it in a calm, measured way.