Storm Ellen - 19th/20th August 2020

Graces7

We are very lucky as like an increasing number of offshore islands we have underocean ESB cables. Before they did that there were so many power cuts it must have been very hard.

There are signs near the harbour to remind ferries..

FutureGuy

Still quite gusty here in limerick.

DOCARCH

123654789 wrote: »

Me neither. I wonder did more trees fall because they were full of leaves?

That and because of wet ground (makes it easier for trees to uproot).

grebtol2

I noticed this line on the powercheck.ie website. I assume this represents the track of the eye. Can anybody tell me where the track of the storm would have been in relation to the line (Clonakilty - through Limerick). Thanks.

US2

Not sure if this is the strongest storm I've lived through, but definitely the most damaging!

Gonzo

US2 wrote: »

Not sure if this is the strongest storm I've lived through, but definitely the most damaging!

The storm sounded fairly loud here but there was very little visible damage however there was surprisingly alot of power outages across the country, including here in Meath which normally doesn't really get power outages from wind storms. The wind from this storm is taking along time to die down completely, it's still fairly windy here today and we may be in for another one next Tuesday.

Oneiric 3

Just looking through my own stats here for 'Ellen' and noticed that pressure bottomed out at 966.2 hPa at 1.30am, which coincided with a brief lull in winds and sharp change in wind direction. Almost as if the 'eye' passed directly over around that time:




Pink = Wind direction and grey = Baro reading.

SouthWesterly

Stronger winds last night than previous night. Gusts of 70 kmh compared to 40kmh at the height of the storm

Neddyusa

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Just looking through my own stats here for 'Ellen' and noticed that pressure bottomed out at 966.2 hPa at 1.30am, which coincided with a brief lull in winds and sharp change in wind direction. Almost as if the 'eye' passed directly over around that time:




Pink = Wind direction and grey = Baro reading.

Yes if it wasn't directly over you I reckon the track of the eye was quite close to you, hence the strongest winds in a swathe of country to your East.


The ESB outages map attached here indicates the path of strongest winds - if you follow the highest number faults roughly from Cork - East Limerick/Clare/Galway - Roscommon.

Ties in very well with MTs forecast track (and quite abit to the east of ME forecast track)

Oneiric 3

Neddyusa wrote: »

Yes if it wasn't directly over you I reckon the track of the eye was quite close to you, hence the strongest winds in a swathe of country to your East.

I'm looking here at some of the hour met reports to try and pin point the exact track of the low passage,

https://www.met.ie/latest-reports/observations/yesterday

and conclude that it must have either passed directly over me, given my low of 966.2 hPa and the sharp turn in wind direction, or, as you say, somewhere very close. According to the Claremorris report at 2am, when its top of the hour low went down to 968 hPa, it coincided with a shift in wind direction from the north, which suggests that the low centre was a little to its SE at that time and probably passed a little to its east thereafter, give that wind direction was reported to be SW by 3am. Athenry reported a 967 hPa reading at 1am, and this saw a similar swing to me in wind direction from E to SW around this time, which suggests that the surface low passed very near or over that station.

For what it is worth, this the the UK Met surface chart for 1am that night. If anything, it has the low centre a little more to the west, and a little further north, than one might expect going by the reports from Shannon right up to Knock.

nacho libre

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

I'm looking here at some of the hour met reports to try and pin point the exact track of the low passage,

https://www.met.ie/latest-reports/observations/yesterday

and conclude that it must have either passed directly over me, given my low of 966.2 hPa and the sharp turn in wind direction, or, as you say, somewhere very close. According to the Claremorris report at 2am, when its top of the hour low went down to 968 hPa, it coincided with a shift in wind direction from the north, which suggests that the low centre was a little to its SE at that time and probably passed a little to its east thereafter, give that wind direction was reported to be SW by 3am. Athenry reported a 967 hPa reading at 1am, and this saw a similar swing to me in wind direction from E to SW around this time, which suggests that the surface low passed very near or over that station.

For what it is worth, this the the UK Met surface chart for 1am that night. If anything, it has the low centre a little more to the west, and a little further north, than one might expect going by the reports from Shannon right up to Knock.

A great Chart. It's not often we see a storm take a track like that.

Jpmarn

Lost power on Wednesday night just before midnight when the Stingjet hit us near Limerick city. Power back yesterday afternoon. My local village Caherconlish had to put up with a second night without power and a friend in the Murroe Boher area also was a second night without power. There are still several local outages left for a third night after the storm.

giveitholly

Some parts of tipp going a third night without power

Oneiric 3

Just for the archives, 'Ellen's' entrance and departure as seen from space:



(large file, may take a while to load)

Edit: might be easier and cleaner to view the video version:

https://imgur.com/a/G6zg9LS

cyclops999

IWC now forecasting 2nd Storm on his Facebook page.

refusetolose

cyclops999 wrote: »

IWC now forecasting 2nd Storm on his Facebook page.

https://earth.nullschool.net/ +4 or 5 days don't look good

LostDuck

cyclops999 wrote: »

IWC now forecasting 2nd Storm on his Facebook page.

Worth keeping an eye on - he normal calls them early and mostly gets them bang on. We switched to his forecasts for work.

JCX BXC

LostDuck wrote: »

Worth keeping an eye on - he normal calls them early and mostly gets them bang on. We switched to his forecasts for work.

Oh god.

Shows that people will believe anything!

John O.Groats

LostDuck wrote: »

Worth keeping an eye on - he normal calls them early and mostly gets them bang on. We switched to his forecasts for work.

You must be having a laugh. This can`t be a serious post.

jammiedodgers

Don't feed them lads...

cyclops999

LostDuck wrote: »

Worth keeping an eye on - he normal calls them early and mostly gets them bang on. We switched to his forecasts for work.

Are you for real .

Gaoth Laidir

LostDuck wrote: »

Worth keeping an eye on - he normal calls them early and mostly gets them bang on. We switched to his forecasts for work.

Met Éireann had signalled it yesterday hours before he mentioned it at all. I would go with Met.

M.T. Cranium

At the moment, the next storm (Monday night into Tuesday morning) looks like being "almost Ellen." I think it's perhaps 60-40 that it would get a name too. Possibly Fergal (I don't think that's the name on the list though).

I will leave the starting of a new thread for almost Ellen to the usual suspects and get back to my important beauty rest.

M.T. Cranium

I should add that generally speaking if you have to resort to using Kinsale energy or Fastnet lighthouse to verify your wind forecasts, then you probably over-predicted the winds. We were not surprised that Kinsale reached 171 km/hr gusts or that Fastnet in other previous storms topped Roches' Point or Sherkin Island by tens of knots. These places are high up on platforms overlooking the open sea and there's zero friction out there. What that does tell you, however, is that airport weather station gusts are only what they are, measurements of wind speeds near the ground (10m up), and high rise buildings in large towns and cities regularly see stronger gusts, as do some isolated hilly locations (usually where nobody is around to feel them).

The game is basically this -- you predict wind speeds that will be verifiable from regular weather stations. Users need to understand the range of potential wind gusts these predictions imply. Weather stations are often better exposed to the wind than many residential areas which after all have evolved over time to be in safe spots and are often surrounded by rolling hills and forests that tend to reduce near-ground wind speeds (they continue to blow strong higher up). So quite often, especially for large cities like Dublin, a majority of people will not experience as strong wind gusts as the airports record. This is perhaps one reason why there's a widespread perception that a forecasting bias exists to over-predict wind speeds. Temperatures and rainfall on the other hand will be as evident in a housing estate as at the local airport.

M.T. Cranium

Also weather stations are of course not the whole story, there are certain areas somewhat devoid of weather stations (that report in real time) and one in particular got blasted by Ellen, namely east Cork and west Waterford into southwest Tipperary. Moorepark gusting to 100 km/hr is probably a sign that other places might have been closer to 120. Gurteen and Mountdillon are located a bit too far east to be right in the cone of strongest winds that apparently pushed into parts of east Galway and Roscommon. Maybe eventually some second-order climate stations will report in, to give us a better idea. These reports are often available many months after the fact when interest has waned.

We had a strong thunderstorm here in my mountain town location on 6th of August, and while it was quite gusty at our place, an apparent tornado developed in the cell and took out a swath of trees over the nearby golf course about 2 km southeast of the town centre. This must have crossed the highway where I see a few trees down, no idea how far into the bush it then might have gone because there are no roads, even forestry, in that area until you get down into the Columbia valley and on a recent drive through there I couldn't see any evidence of further tree damage along the extension of the same track. So if that had happened to hit the golf course clubhouse instead of the 4th and 5th holes as it did, it would have had a much higher economic impact. As things stand, crews have been busy hauling out the downed trees after reducing them to manageable log sizes. Might have been a downburst rather than a tornado as I could see no obvious signs of radial patterns, all the trees not already removed were pointing east. You might think this isn't tornado country in the mountains of BC but there was an F-3 in Creston east of here a few years ago, took out a whole street there.

DOCARCH

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

At the moment, the next storm (Monday night into Tuesday morning) looks like being "almost Ellen." I think it's perhaps 60-40 that it would get a name too. Possibly Fergal (I don't think that's the name on the list though).

Next storm name is Francis.

pauldry

Yeah that storm wont be as strong as Ellen but possible gusts of 120 to 130kph would mean more downed trees and power cuts in places.

Ellen brought 5.5mm of rain to Sligo this will most definitely bring more.

Stormy Tuesday so.

Also this storm looks like it could hit during day so impacts could be as dangerous as Ellen

JanuarySnowstor

Ellens rainfall was very sporadic hit or miss
Tuesdays low while weaker looks to have a lot of moisture which could add to trees falling.
So one to watch but at the moment doesn't look too severe

MJohnston

Are we still using last storm season’s naming list? That’s kind of weird, does that mean this will be counted as a 2019/20 storm?

Gaoth Laidir

MJohnston wrote: »

Are we still using last storm season’s naming list? That’s kind of weird, does that mean this will be counted as a 2019/20 storm?

Yes, the new winter storm "season" starts in September.