Storm Ellen - 19th/20th August 2020

sryanbruen

In terms of the numbers for actual gusts, these are the ones to look out for. I must stress it is not a definitive list.

The Claremorris 78 kts stat on 11 August 1999 is likely an error so is not included.

redsteveireland

Indestructable wrote: »

Ireland's Weather Channel is really going for this one. He has a huge following so might cause some distress, I wonder will Met Eireann follow suit.

Should be some control on that nonsense, I had people sending me stuff last night about red warnings. I think my boss was reading it as he was talking about closing the company tomorrow for the red warning.

pad199207

Red warning issued for Marine Areas

spookwoman

Status: Red
Marine
MARINE WARNING
STATUS RED - GALE WARNING
Gale to storm force winds, southeast veering southwest, this evening and tonight on all Irish coastal waters and on the Irish Sea. Winds will reach violent storm force 11 for a time on coasts from Carnsore point to Valentia to Slyne Head.

Issued: 10:00 Wednesday 19/08/2020

Graces7

spookwoman wrote: »

Status: Red
Marine
MARINE WARNING
STATUS RED - GALE WARNING
Gale to storm force winds, southeast veering southwest, this evening and tonight on all Irish coastal waters and on the Irish Sea. Winds will reach violent storm force 11 for a time on coasts from Carnsore point to Valentia to Slyne Head.

Issued: 10:00 Wednesday 19/08/2020

OUCH!

Graces7

munsterlegend wrote: »

Latest Met Éireann update is sitting on the fence:

Headline: Storm Ellen will produce severe impacts in place this evening and tonight. Mild and cloudy today with rain at times in most areas, but some drier periods also. Highs of 17 to 20 degrees. Very windy or stormy conditions spreading from the south this evening with damaging gusts.

‘In places’ but not sure where!

When they started the warnings y'day they were so vague that it made me wonder if they knew how bad it was going to be and dared not commit to it. They are still being vague' deliberately?

weisses

ME still not going with the more eastern track

redsteveireland

Graces7 wrote: »

When they started the warnings y'day they were so vague that it made me wonder if they knew how bad it was going to be and dared not commit to it. They are still being vague' deliberately?

There is more detail in the commentary section -

https://www.met.ie/forecasts/meteorologists-commentary

Subject to updates this afternoon.

jimmynokia

IWC if off

ChikiChiki

I think they are being very cautious as they have been lambasted so much for previous severe weathers that have never materialized.

My own opinion is that its better to air on the side of caution and give a warning reflecting the highest possible risk however people are never happy and expect an accurate warning. Schools are closed so that is one previous huge problem that is not there today.

jimmynokia

IWC if off with red inland

Graces7

KingdomRushed wrote: »

With a storm like this there may not be actually any firming up on specifics ahead of the event. We have seen many such instances where the track is off even converging model consensus. We are less than 24 hours out and I fully understand that Met Eireann are still uncertain about track and intensity. Such is it. As it is summer I would probably think it is in Met Eireanns interest and widen the orange warning if tehre is uncertainty, the effects of a storm will be magnified, camping, campervans, awnings out, etc etc etc.

Add to these considerations the frequent foolishness this summer of folk ignoring warnings. There is a coastguard warning on breakingnews,ie online on that; warning against inflatables (sorry, I cannot copy /paste here)

spookwoman

https://twitter.com/IrishCoastGuard/status/1295994511777320960?s=20

watlantic

Still difficult to predict what exactly will happen, but this certainly is going to be a very interesting storm with a lot of potential. The latest surface analysis chart from the OPC has no less than FIVE lows over and near Ireland with at least two of them expected to merge into storm Ellen:

Storm 10

Any link for IWC

aisling86

Storm 10 wrote: »

Any link for IWC

https://www.facebook.com/1497743413678592/posts/3094503724002545/

squarecircles

SEA AREA RED ALERT WARNING ISSUED NOW BY MET EIREANN

aisling86

squarecircles wrote: »

SEA AREA RED ALERT WARNING ISSUED NOW BY MET EIREANN

I hope campsites all along the coast take heed. The stupidity on camping with kids in Ireland group is scary!

spookwoman

This the same iwc Award Winning Climate Scientist | Founder of Ireland’s Weather Channel | Climate Activist | Keynote Speaker
https://twitter.com/nolan_cathal/status/1295828000546664448?s=20

leahyl

Could this upgrade even further for inland, away from marine?

Gruffalux

spookwoman wrote: »

This the same iwc Award Winning Climate Scientist | Founder of Ireland’s Weather Channel | Climate Activist | Keynote Speaker
https://twitter.com/nolan_cathal/status/1295828000546664448?s=20

What! Is this a fringe element in forecasting circles?

jimmynokia

spookwoman wrote: »

This the same iwc Award Winning Climate Scientist | Founder of Ireland’s Weather Channel | Climate Activist | Keynote Speaker
https://twitter.com/nolan_cathal/status/1295828000546664448?s=20

He's an utter moron that lad has issued red inland

JanuarySnowstor

GFS on board now at the last minute.
Red alert certain for the South

munsterlegend

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

GFS on board now at the last minute.
Red alert certain for the South

Any specifics? Your red track record is a bit iffy!

Rock Lesnar

Im right under the line on IWC map here in Meath, better take the trampoline down, ha

Gaoth Laidir

Gruffalox wrote: »

What! Is this a fringe element in forecasting circles?

Award-winning climate scientist who can't even get the year of ex-Charley right.

ChikiChiki

Hmm, trying to advise a friend who is planning on going camping tomorrow in Clare from Dublin not to go. She is not trusting my weather forecasting skills.

munsterlegend

Rock Lesnar wrote: »

Im right under the line on IWC map here in Meath, better take the trampoline down, ha

Probably better to take it down alright. That IWC is the daily express of weather.

Just seen the SkyNews forecast. Quite bland. one mention of gusts and the only mention of Ellen was that it was named by the Irish Met Service..

Hopefully they have got it right.

typhoony

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

GFS on board now at the last minute.
Red alert certain for the South

GFS 06z has shifted in further east, South East and East Coast getting the worst of the winds, similar track to the FAX chart.

also winds not as bad in the west for the next few days.