Storm Ellen - 19th/20th August 2020

Ninthlife

Marty Bird wrote: »

Heading to Youghal on Friday morning what do you guys think it will be like it?

Youghal be careful

jonwang

Probably not the weather for a car wash but I've got a free circle K one if anyone wants it, desperately trying to give it away, only 3 hours left until the coupon expires. email me for the code skskennelly@gmail.com

A bit unrelated but just posting on the most active tread I see.

munsterlegend

pad199207 wrote: »

Status Orange - Wind warning for Munster, Galway and Mayo

Met Éireann Weather Warning

Storm Ellen will track over Ireland this evening and tonight bringing severe and damaging winds.

Heavy rainfall and storm surge will result in some flooding.

Valid: 21:00 Wednesday 19/08/2020 to 06:00 Thursday 20/08/2020

Issued: 11:22 Wednesday 19/08/2020

No real change. They obviously think GFS track is wrong.

Graces7

tabby aspreme wrote: »

Good to see you posting again, lock up the furballs tonight

Thank you.

As for the furballs; they have various hidey holes. When the gale gets going opening the door may not be possible.. or prudent.

Brighter out here but no sun.

Graces7

Graces7 wrote: »

Thank you.

As for the furballs; they have various hidey holes. When the gale gets going opening the door may not be possible.. or prudent.

Brighter out here but no sun.

It’s so good to hear you’re keeping well. Made of hardy stuff you islanders.

x

Graces7

pad199207 wrote: »

Status Orange - Wind warning for Munster, Galway and Mayo

Met Éireann Weather Warning

Storm Ellen will track over Ireland this evening and tonight bringing severe and damaging winds.

Heavy rainfall and storm surge will result in some flooding.

Valid: 21:00 Wednesday 19/08/2020 to 06:00 Thursday 20/08/2020

Issued: 11:22 Wednesday 19/08/2020

Forgive please my amateur ideas but "storm surge" means exceptionally high tides? I mentioned this earlier. Thank you. Now that COULD be interesting …

Gaoth Laidir

Keep an eye on the water vapour animation at the link below. In the last few frames there appears to be a stingjet forming on the back edge of the cold front (as evidenced by the sharp yellow streaks shooting southwards on the northern side of the yellow area; subsiding stratospheric air). The jet is not that strong (240 kph at 250 hPa), but given the strong moisture-loading it is leading to strong upward motion and rapid pressure falls at the surface.

If it's a stingjet now then it may peak before reaching us tonight, so eyes down for the 12Z analysis.

https://meteologix.com/ie/satellite/204-w-396-n/satellite-water-vapor-15min/20200819-1015z.html#play-0-29-9

Hurrache

aisling86 wrote: »

Why?

Because otherwise it's saying camping with kids in Ireland is stupid?

nacho libre

Indestructable wrote: »

Ireland's Weather Channel is really going for this one. He has a huge following so might cause some distress, I wonder will Met Eireann follow suit.

If only it was the other way around.

I have a feeling the ECM is going to be wrong on this one, that the UKMO depiction will be correct.

Santy2015

Met Eireann particularly concerned about campers in the south and west of the country

typhoony

nacho libre wrote: »

If only it was the other way around.

I have a feeling the ECM is going to be wrong on this one, that the UKMO depiction will be correct.

can you say what the difference is between ECM and UKMO?

Mount Vesuvius

Met Éireann still just going with Munster , Clare and Galway in an Orange warning

Graces7

Anyone skill re tide tables please? Just been out and a very low tide; sand exposed. Patches of blue skies but massing dark clouds swarming in. Very dramatic.

So when the tide turns? Rather lovely out but clearly not going to last.

Ninthlife

typhoony wrote: »

can you say what the difference is between ECM and UKMO?

Id like to know this too..

Also i sit on in Sth West Kildare on the border of Carlow and Laois. Any idea if it will be yellow or orange and should I weigh the trampoline down

optogirl

Hurrache wrote: »

Because otherwise it's saying camping with kids in Ireland is stupid?

OP meant there is some stupidity on the Camping With Kids in Ireland Group

no.8

Ah yes...because an event that lasts say 48hrs max. Means you certainly can't make use of the 3-4 months of the summer holiday season.

So i presume you will never visit the southern states of the US (given your logic)

Ninthlife

Ninthlife wrote: »

Id like to know this too..

Also i sit on in Sth West Kildare on the border of Carlow and Laois. Any idea if it will be yellow or orange and should I weigh the trampoline down

I’d probably do it as a precaution anyway.

Flower baskets are down. Parasol is in. I just need a second pair of hands to move the garden furniture. It’s rattan so it’s quite light.

Xenji

Mount Vesuvius wrote: »

Met Éireann still just going with Munster , Clare and Galway in an Orange warning

Mayo as well.

Meteorite58

Latest French models still keeping strongest winds to the East. WRF keeps to East.

Hurrache

optogirl wrote: »

OP meant there is some stupidity on the Camping With Kids in Ireland Group

Ah, I knew there must have been something more to it. It's a private group so dunno what they're up to.

aisling86

Hurrache wrote: »

Because otherwise it's saying camping with kids in Ireland is stupid?

No I didnt I said in the group. The level of stupidity being shown in the group currently is though. Most asking is it safe to stay where they are on campsites in tents for tonight.

dmc17

Graces7 wrote: »

Anyone skill re tide tables please? Just been out and a very low tide; sand exposed. Patches of blue skies but massing dark clouds swarming in. Very dramatic.

So when the tide turns? Rather lovely out but clearly not going to last.

Low tide should be around 12:40 in the mayo area with high around 18:45. It will be lower and higher than usual over the next few days

pauldry

Rain to Southwest a 9pm tonight looks ominous

Graces7

dmc17 wrote: »

Low tide should be around 12:40 in the mayo area with high around 18:45. It will be lower and higher than usual over the next few days

Ah thanks; I will go out and look in a few minutes. It was already very low. Sky darkening again now. Those dark clouds look formidable.

Marty Bird

Ninthlife wrote: »

Youghal be careful

Joking aside will it be that bad ?wife is considering cancelling our hotel.

pauldry

Rain in Southwest looks severe.

A rough night by all accounts

Ninthlife

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

I’d probably do it as a precaution anyway.

Flower baskets are down. Parasol is in. I just need a second pair of hands to move the garden furniture. It’s rattan so it’s quite light.

Yea i will do the same. I usually do once I see these threads but last couple of times it wasnt really necessary.

i will go out once the rain stops so

Donegal Ken

Indestructable wrote: »

Ireland's Weather Channel is really going for this one. He has a huge following so might cause some distress, I wonder will Met Eireann follow suit.

He over hypes every storm and drop of rain that falls. He is Irelands version of the daily express. Met Éireann have a team of fully qualified meteorologists and have much more technology than he ever will have. Putting out bogus warnings like he has done is dangerous and the day a actual proper red warning needs to be issued some will ignore because he issues them once or twice a week. I know most of the the forecasts pages have this view also.

pad199207

Status Red - Wind warning for Cork

Met Éireann Weather Warning

Between 9pm and midnight Storm Ellen will produce a core of very severe and destructive winds.

Valid: 21:00 Wednesday 19/08/2020 to 23:59 Wednesday 19/08/2020

Issued: 11:00 Wednesday 19/08/2020

pad199207

Just to note that last time Met Eireann mentioned “destructive” in the warnings was Ophelia