Lions Tour

Gatland likely to, more so than previous tours, fall back on what he knows.

- Much reduced games outside a normal lions schedule to find out your starters

- Players will be cooped up in hotels for most of it, not out visiting South Africa (mental side comes into it - known vs unkonwn)

- Gatland's last Lions tour also a factor




Biggar and Farrell are going so it's Sexton vs Russell surely - notwithstanding the above I wonder who he will go with, especially with Sexton's brittleness of late and lack of consistency over long periods of the last few years.

Ryan could easily miss out also.

Furlong, Murray, Henshaw, Beirne are the only certainties from Ireland with the first 3 starting the first test most likely.

partyguinness

glasso wrote: »

Gatland likely to, more so than previous tours, fall back on what he knows.

- Much reduced games outside a normal lions schedule to find out your starters

- Players will be cooped up in hotels for most of it, not out visiting South Africa (mental side comes into it - known vs unkonwn)

- Gatland's last Lions tour also a factor




Biggar and Farrell are going so it's Sexton vs Russell surely - notwithstanding the above I wonder who he will go with, especially with Sexton's brittleness of late and lack of consistency over long periods of the last few years.

Ryan could easily miss out also.

Furlong, Murray, Henshaw, Beirne are the only certainties from Ireland with the first 3 starting the first test most likely.

Yeah. At this stage with Sexton you feel he is just one solid tackle away from a HIA and tour over. While of course it is a risk with every player but if you are a coach can you really have Sexton trudging off after 10 minutes messing up your plans.

hahashake

I would take Sexton over Russell, for his experience, physicality and predictability. Last one is a double-edged sword but I'd rather get a reliable 7.5/10 than a gamble for a 5.5 or 8.5.

sprucemoose

partyguinness wrote: »

Yeah. At this stage with Sexton you feel he is just one solid tackle away from a HIA and tour over. While of course it is a risk with every player but if you are a coach can you really have Sexton trudging off after 10 minutes messing up your plans.

i think he really should retire for his own sake to be honest

hahashake wrote: »

I would take Sexton over Russell, for his experience, physicality and predictability. Last one is a double-edged sword but I'd rather get a reliable 7.5/10 than a gamble for a 5.5 or 8.5.

agree, russell goes missing when it really comes down to it, shocking stuff in the euro final last year

AudreyHepburn

hahashake wrote: »

I would take Sexton over Russell, for his experience, physicality and predictability. Last one is a double-edged sword but I'd rather get a reliable 7.5/10 than a gamble for a 5.5 or 8.5.

I agree 100%.

I know age also has to be a factor but if you pick AWJ, which I think we can be fairly sure Gatland will, then you can’t really use it as an excuse not to pick someone else.

AudreyHepburn

partyguinness wrote: »

Yeah. At this stage with Sexton you feel he is just one solid tackle away from a HIA and tour over. While of course it is a risk with every player but if you are a coach can you really have Sexton trudging off after 10 minutes messing up your plans.

The question is do you take the risk of Russell fluffing his lines when it counts over the risk Sexton going off injured?

Which is the bigger gamble?

sydthebeat

3rd test....... 15 mins left, score 18 - 20 in favour of the boks ..... series tied 1 - 1

do you want sexton coming off the bench to direct to engineer a pen / drop
or do you want Russell to come on to to engineer something out of nothing

in my mind its sexton every day of the week

sprucemoose

AudreyHepburn wrote: »

The question is do you take the risk of Russell fluffing his lines when it counts over the risk Sexton going off injured?

Which is the bigger gamble?

its russell....

Sexton - 3 H Cups, challlenge cup, couple of Pro12/14s, 3 6Ns, grand slam, 2018 summer tour, two previous lions tours
Russell - a pro12 and a call up to the last tour because he was in the area

partyguinness

sydthebeat wrote: »

3rd test....... 15 mins left, score 18 - 20 in favour of the boks ..... series tied 1 - 1

do you want sexton coming off the bench to direct to engineer a pen / drop
or do you want Russell to come on to to engineer something out of nothing

in my mind its sexton every day of the week

as long Sexton does not repeat ROG in '09 in the second test...

If Sexton is fit and robust then him all day long but that is the question: will he be fit and robust enough to make it to the first test squad?

Cosmo Kramer

I can see Sexton missing out. Living in Scotland it feels less like Gregor Townsend is part of the coaching ticket and more as though he's been sent down as a trade envoy on a mission to deliver no less than seven Scots in to the final squad.

In other words I can see no way that Russell won't be selected, barring injury. Sextons best bet at this point is if they pick four 10s with Farrell also covering 12, which is a possibility.

I'd say from an Irish POV...

Certainties - Furlong, Beirne, Murray, Henshaw
Probables - Ryan, Henderson, Stander, Ringrose
Possibles - Healy, Herring, Kelleher, Porter, Sexton
Need a miracle - Van Der Flier, Conan, Cooney, Earls, Stockdale, Keenan

AudreyHepburn

sprucemoose wrote: »

its russell....

Sexton - 3 H Cups, challlenge cup, couple of Pro12/14s, 3 6Ns, grand slam, 2018 summer tour, two previous lions tours
Russell - a pro12 and a call up to the last tour because he was in the area

Exactly my point. You take experience and a cool head in the heat of it every time.

Former Former Former

Maybe this is very petty, but the one selection I'm hoping for tomorrow is that Russell is not picked. I think he's totally over-rated and the absolute antithesis of a team player.

partyguinness

Cosmo Kramer wrote: »

I can see Sexton missing out. Living in Scotland it feels less like Gregor Townsend is part of the coaching ticket and more as though he's been sent down as a trade envoy on a mission to deliver no less than seven Scots in to the final squad.

In other words I can see no way that Russell won't be selected, barring injury. Sextons best bet at this point is if they pick four 10s with Farrell also covering 12, which is a possibility.

I'd say from an Irish POV...

Certainties - Furlong, Beirne, Murray, Henshaw
Probables - Ryan, Henderson, Stander, Ringrose
Possibles - Healy, Herring, Kelleher, Porter, Sexton
Need a miracle - Van Der Flier, Cooney, Earls, Stockdale, Keenan

The BBC chucked in Zebo as a left field possibilty.

aloooof

sydthebeat wrote: »

3rd test....... 15 mins left, score 18 - 20 in favour of the boks ..... series tied 1 - 1

do you want sexton coming off the bench to direct to engineer a pen / drop
or do you want Russell to come on to to engineer something out of nothing

in my mind its sexton every day of the week

Sexton all day long, there, and I'd have him on the plane. Just as a thought-experiment, what if it's the same scenario except, say, 12-20 to the boks? I think it's closer.

sprucemoose

Former Former Former wrote: »

Maybe this is very petty, but the one selection I'm hoping for tomorrow is that Russell is not picked. I think he's totally over-rated and the absolute antithesis of a team player.

finally someone sees sense. i think the general thing around russell of 'well you have to take the good with the bad with him' is absolute bollocks. for me he ties with brock james in terms of chickening out in important moments. scotland were starting to play really well with hastings at 10 last year too before everything had to stop

partyguinness

I would make my year if Sexton lines up at 10 for the first test.

basill

If Sexton goes he will be on the field for 20mins max. He will be targeted heavily by the opposition and as the other posters have said will be off with an HIA (at best).

RugbyLover123

I reckon we will see something like this tomorrow:

Wyn Jones, Mako, Genge
LCD, Owens, George
Furlong, Sinkler, Porter

AWJ, Itoje, Ryan, Henderson

Curry, Tipuric, Falateu, Watson, Beirne, Vunipola, Underhill

Murray, Williams, Price

Farrell, Biggar, Russell

Henshaw, Davies, Tuilagi, Slade

Hogg, Williams, LRZ, VDM, Adams, May

13 English
11 Welsh
7 Irish
5 Scots

I reckon a lot of players will tour from their reputation/credit in the bank.

Sutherland probably would’ve gone only for injury. Genge I reckon goes just over Healy. Marler will travel if made available though.

The hookers pick themselves.

Porter will go as 3rd choice tight head because of his size and flexibility.

Can see maybe Gray pushing his way into the back 5 I have above for maybe Underhill. Reckon Billy goes due to lack of ball carriers. I’d genuinely be shocked if Simmonds gets called up. Another one the English media have hyped to death.

Scrum half is weakest spot but I reckon they’ll take 1 from the 3 other countries now Youngs has pulled.

Sexton would’ve been nailed on a few weeks ago but I’m not sure if Gatland will take him now with his concussion issues and with Townsend as attack coach I can’t see a situation where Russell doesn’t travel. Farrell and Biggar nailed on.

Reckon Henshaw, Davies & Slade will go and it’ll be between Tuilagi and Ringrose for the last spot. Tuilagi goes if he’s any way fit.

Hogg, Williams, LRZ & Watson are nailed on and too a lesser extent Adams. Which leaves 2 spots I feel will go to VDM cause of his size, he knows SA and he’s ‘Scottish’. May will go purely for his ability to score out of nothing and on last years reputation. Reckon Jack Nowell will be a wildcard/bolter.

roverjoyce

sydthebeat wrote: »

3rd test....... 15 mins left, score 18 - 20 in favour of the boks ..... series tied 1 - 1

do you want sexton coming off the bench to direct to engineer a pen / drop
or do you want Russell to come on to to engineer something out of nothing

in my mind its sexton every day of the week

Elliot Daly with a long range boomer

sprucemoose

RugbyLover123 wrote: »

Henshaw, Davies, Tuilagi, Slade

tuilagi shouldnt be anywhere near the squad hopefully. vastly overrated and england tend to play much better without him, on the other hand hes gatlands type of centre so maybe. slade is very underrated in fairness but i cant see him going over ringrose tbh

sprucemoose

sprucemoose wrote: »

tuilagi shouldnt be anywhere near the squad hopefully. vastly overrated and england tend to play much better without him, on the other hand hes gatlands type of centre so maybe. slade is very underrated in fairness but i cant see him going over ringrose tbh

when Tuilagi is fully fit he is not over-rated and is a unique player in terms of capabilities in that position

he has destroyed Ireland every time he has been on the field against them for England

if he's not punching holes himself he's attracting the attention of multiple opposition players thereby creating space for others and is a fearsome defender himself.

he's totemic in nature and his presence lifts a team.

partyguinness

RugbyLover123 wrote: »

I reckon a lot of players will tour from their reputation/credit in the bank.

Oh God...memories of '05 come flooding back.

sprucemoose

glasso wrote: »

when Tuilagi is fully fit he is not over-rated

hes very, very, very rarely fit though

AudreyHepburn

I don’t know that either Billy V, Tuilagi or George have played enough recently to justify selection and Mako hasn’t been at his best recently. I’m not sure any of them could be selected on form at the moment.

Buer

England have a far better team with Tuilagi in it. He's one of the few guys in European rugby that is very hard to combat when he's on form similar to the impact that someone like Bastareaud or Skelton have when playing well. Teams need to adjust their game plan specifically to deal with him.

As it stands, I'd say he's got a chance to make the squad. If he had a match or two under his belt and proved his fitness, I'd expect him to be near certain.

partyguinness

AudreyHepburn wrote: »

I don’t know that either Billy V, Tuilagi or George have played enough recently to justify selection and Mako hasn’t been at his best recently. I’m not sure any of them could be selected on form at the moment.

TBH based on form at the moment you would be forgiven for not taking any English players.

MurDawg

Genge didnt get shortlisted by the looks

sprucemoose

Buer wrote: »

England have a far better team with Tuilagi in it

have to say i disagree. slade offers much more for me at 13 and is one of their most underrated players in a sea of vastly overrated ones

AudreyHepburn

partyguinness wrote: »

TBH based on form at the moment you would be forgiven for not taking any English players.

I didn’t want to say it in case I got attacked but I couldn’t agree more.

The only one I can really see as having put his hand up is Tom Curry.

partyguinness

AudreyHepburn wrote: »

I didn’t want to say it in case I got attacked but I couldn’t agree more.

The only one I can really see as having put his hand up is Tom Curry.

Go back and check his stats from the earlier link...does not make pretty reading.


But yeah no English players is fanciful and just tongue in cheek.

AudreyHepburn

partyguinness wrote: »

Go back and check his stats from the earlier link...does not make pretty reading.


But yeah no English players is fanciful and just tongue in cheek.

I don’t mean he was brilliant but certainly the best of a bad lot.

Obviously there will have to be some but they should consider themselves extremely lucky to be there.

Lucas44

partyguinness wrote: »

TBH based on form at the moment you would be forgiven for not taking any English players.[/quote

Same could be said about the leinster players bar henshaw & furlong

sprucemoose

AudreyHepburn wrote: »

I didn’t want to say it in case I got attacked but I couldn’t agree more.

The only one I can really see as having put his hand up is Tom Curry.

watson was very good in the 6N too, slade was fairly decent also. the fact that daly has a massive boot (could probably push for about 65m off the tee at altitude) and can cover centre aswell back three could work for him too despite an average 6N.

bilston

Who will be fighting the Irish corner in selection? Robyn McBride is there for Leinster, but who will be arguing the case for Iain Henderson, Rob Herring, CJ Stander, Conor Murray Tadgh Beirne and Bundee Aki. That would be my concern for those guys...or some of them anyway...Beirne and Murray should be fine, but the others may suffer because there is no Irish involvement in selection.

Burkie1203

bilston wrote: »

Who will be fighting the Irish corner in selection? Robyn McBride is there for Leinster, but who will be arguing the case for Iain Henderson, Rob Herring, CJ Stander, Conor Murray Tadgh Beirne and Bundee Aki. That would be my concern for those guys...or some of them anyway...Beirne and Murray should be fine, but the others may suffer because there is no Irish involvement in selection.

Faletau is nailed on
Billy V probably goes

36 man squad means no Stander possibly?

Itoje Henderson Beirne all go. Can play 6

41 man squad in 2017

VayNiice

partyguinness wrote: »

TBH based on form at the moment you would be forgiven for not taking any English players.[/quote

Same could be said about the leinster players bar henshaw & furlong

Why Leinster specifically? I'd say Furlong and Henshaw are the only two nailed on Irish players from any province.

Tadhg Beirne is a "more than likely" but after himself and Henderson I don't think theres anyone who deserves to be nailed on?

swiwi_

Former Former Former wrote: »

There should no debate about captain IMO, AWJ is head and shoulders above all other candidates.

Are you talking figuratively or literally there FFF?

Former Former Former

VayNiice wrote: »

Why Leinster specifically? I'd say Furlong and Henshaw are the only two nailed on Irish players from any province.

Tadhg Beirne is a "more than likely" but after himself and Henderson I don't think theres anyone who deserves to be nailed on?

Conor Murray is in absolutely every pundit's squad.

thomond2006

I wouldn't discount the previous tourist bonus and that's why Murray goes from a probable to a certain selection.

Teferi

Also Murray was the best of a mediocre bunch during the 6N. No standouts from scrummies.

VayNiice

Former Former Former wrote: »

Conor Murray is in absolutely every pundit's squad.

Any other year and he could easily miss out. He's been mediocre at best for a long time

Lost Ormond

VayNiice wrote: »

Any other year and he could easily miss out. He's been mediocre at best for a long time

But how many others have been so much better than him? Not many others really stood out
He also has travelled with Lions before and has a lot of test experience

partyguinness

Bloody hell. I just realised I was on here 12 years ago discussing the squad before the last Lions tour to SA...:o

I got absolutely slaughtered for suggesting that I would defo take Alan Quinlan on that tour as the mid week games were made for him. Bearing in mind he was not even in the Irish squad at the time I took a lot of flack.

Lo and behold he was picked. Of course then banned for trying to blind Leo Cullen.

TRC10

Just occurred to me that Bundee Aki could be in with a real shout. Assuming Farrell goes as a 10, and Henshaw and Davies are the test centre pairing, who goes as the 2nd 12? Especially as Tuilagi hasn't been able to play since August so is unlikely to be picked.

The options are Aki, Redpath and Sam Johnson. Could be interesting.

Could also take Slade as a 12 and of course Ringrose has played there too. But I feel Aki would be a real "Gatland" selection. He took Ben Te'o 4 years ago.

Cosmo Kramer

bilston wrote: »

Who will be fighting the Irish corner in selection? Robyn McBride is there for Leinster, but who will be arguing the case for Iain Henderson, Rob Herring, CJ Stander, Conor Murray Tadgh Beirne and Bundee Aki. That would be my concern for those guys...or some of them anyway...Beirne and Murray should be fine, but the others may suffer because there is no Irish involvement in selection.

Strangely, I think the answer to this question might actually be Warren Gatland. Murray, Stander and Henderson have all toured under him before and I think he'll most likely call at least two, if not all three of those back again. I'd be surprised if Beirne wasn't picked - the only issue there is that he's not a prototype Gatland 6 and the second row is stacked, so there's a possibility he might miss out I guess.

Cosmo Kramer

The telegraph reporting a leak from the camp that Simmonds is in the squad. I don't know whether their rugby coverage is any better than their Brexit coverage but that might be bad news for Stander if true.

Thrashssacre

Cosmo Kramer wrote: »

The telegraph reporting a leak from the camp that Simmonds is in the squad. I don't know whether their rugby coverage is any better than their Brexit coverage but that might be bad news for Stander if true.

And one other player currently not playing international rugby ala Marcus Smith or god help us zebo......

Squidgy Black

Thrashssacre wrote: »

And one other player currently not playing international rugby ala Marcus Smith or god help us zebo......

Could be Danny Care, a lot of the English pundits had him going since Youngs pulled out. Or even Rhys Webb.

Louis Friend

I’d look at the Irish runners and riders as follows:

Definites:

Henshaw
Murray
Sexton
Ryan
Furlong

Probables:

Ringrose
Stander
Beirne
Henderson

Possibles:

Keenan
Aki
Porter
Kelleher
Earls

I can’t believe that there are people questioning whether Itoje will be selected.

partyguinness

Going back to the captaincy question I don't even think it's a question of why AWJ should get it but rather give a good reason why it should be taken off him.

But it just dawned me, I could see AWJ actually asking not to have it and taking a step back as VC.