Covid 19 Part XXII-30,360 in ROI(1,781 deaths) 8,035 in NI (568 deaths)(10/09)Read OP

Wolf359f

Goldengirl wrote: »

Am back to work in a week after holidays and accrued leave .
It was relatively quiet ( as in not crazy , when I left )
I am hoping this is a blip but it is not looking good at this stage .

I was hoping the clusters were a blip and would have been quickly and efficiently contained. Unfortunately it looks like they weren't. There's plenty of blame to spread around and I just hope all those involved can learn and learn fast. This is all new to everyone.

On a side note, I'm glad you had some time off, I can't imagine what it's like and I sincerely hope it's just a blip. we've had weeks with less cases than we have in a single day now, I felt proud of our collective contribution back then. Now I feel kinda gutted and deflated. It has to be a sucker punch to all healthcare staff.

fritzelly

s1ippy wrote: »

Maybe not, but he's a wacko.
https://twitter.com/President_MU/status/1296760361228673027?s=20

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1296760361228673027.html

I suppose we'll soon find out.

Maybe I'm being stupid but is he saying if adults minimize spreading of the virus (don't be in contact with more than 2 people) then it doesn't matter if kids spread it so long as the R0 is below 1

Sooooo...if a classroom of kids get infected by one kid and spread it to their families that's ok

I'm confused

Arghus

Micky 32 wrote: »

I explained why i “attacked” your post and i still stand by it.

Your “genuine” post was a wind up post clearly. I’m sure you’re intelligent enough to realise that with the rising of cases some hospital admissions were going to be inevitable.

I wasn't trying to wind anyone up. I asked the initial question in the most neutral and straightforward manner possible.

"Is there anything to explain that increase of 8 in hospital."

It's a fairly straightforward question.

Wolf359f

Always_Running wrote: »

Likely and It's Tuesday or Wednesday before we get stable number. According to some on here you would think its April again with 865 in hospital but... oh forget it indeed.

It's nothing like that, however, 8 more positive cases in hospital is 8 more people who can spread it on. You think our healthcare workers enjoy going to work when they hear there's a new case confirmed in the hospital?

That's 8 beds taken and 8 less for general care.
You're comfortable with 8 new admissions to hospital, can I ask what number you would be uncomfortable with?
I mean so many be asking the government for a black and white answer with new case numbers, how many is ok. It's an impossible question to answer.

omerin

Maybe ive watched too many disaster movies, but it really is possible to squash the virus if the goverment had a disaster plan, how about they set in place a date which gives people time to prepare, lets say Dec 1st where everyone stays in their home for 3 weeks, hospital, care home and frontline staff during this time work but do not return home during this time. In the lead up to dec 1st, volunteers from army and guards quarantine in the Curragh and army barracks 3 weeks beforehand, and from dec 1st they are the visible presence on the streets. All hospital appointments are cancelled and only emergencies are taken to hospital. Border is shut, most if not all forms of commerce are suspended.

All volunteers would be tested daily during the 3 week period. No voluntary organisations would operate as they are a risk factor

The 3 weeks would allow sufficent time for the virus to work its way out.

The 3 month prep time would allow us to set up comprehensive testing in airports and ports, including hauliers, no exceptions, if you want to enter this country you take a test, fix the track and trace program, book accomadation for the front line staff, fit out the army barracks, stock up on food parcels for the vulnerable and most importantly mentally prepare people for what is to come.

Micky 32

Arghus wrote: »

I wasn't trying to wind anyone up. I asked the initial question in the most neutral and straightforward manner possible.

"Is there anything to explain that increase of 8 in hospital."

It's a fairly straightforward question.

So you never thought the recent spikes in cases might have had something to do with it?

Arghus

Micky 32 wrote: »

So you never thought the recent spikes in cases might have had something to do with it?

It's possible, but there's people here who seem to have knowledge about policies re admissions in hospitals at weekends, so I guess any potential further insight might give me a more nuanced understanding rather than just looking at the figure itself and jumping to the conclusion that we're going to start to see a consistent increase in the rate of increase of the numbers in hospital from here on out. I'd rather understand what's happening than score points to be honest.

stephenjmcd

Arghus wrote: »

I wasn't trying to wind anyone up. I asked the initial question in the most neutral and straightforward manner possible.

"Is there anything to explain that increase of 8 in hospital."

It's a fairly straightforward question.

Well 5 diagnosed in hosptials today and what I can see from the numbers all were admitted by 8pm.

Soon see if that's the case tomorrow.

I know in the hosptial I know of no covid cases are discharged over the weekend, have never really paid attention to hosptial numbers myself until during the week because of this.

But like I say, we'll see what tomorrow brings

Goldengirl

fritzelly wrote: »

Maybe I'm being stupid but is he saying if adults minimize spreading of the virus (don't be in contact with more than 2 people) then it doesn't matter if kids spread it so long as the R0 is below 1

Sooooo...if a classroom of kids get infected by one kid and spread it to their families that's ok

I'm confused

That whole tweet is not at all about the individuals or the children , but about statistics and the R number , ie . How to get it down!

Always_Running

Wolf359f wrote: »

It's nothing like that, however, 8 more positive cases in hospital is 8 more people who can spread it on. You think our healthcare workers enjoy going to work when they hear there's a new case confirmed in the hospital?

That's 8 beds taken and 8 less for general care.
You're comfortable with 8 new admissions to hospital, can I ask what number you would be uncomfortable with?
I mean so many be asking the government for a black and white answer with new case numbers, how many is ok. It's an impossible question to answer.

The numbers we were getting months ago was uncomfortable not now.

Many including myself excepted a lot more in hospital right now from amount of cases we had the last 3 weeks. So even health care workers can draw some comfort from that.

speckle

omerin wrote: »

Maybe ive watched too many disaster movies, but it really is possible to squash the virus if the goverment had a disaster plan, how about they set in place a date which gives people time to prepare, lets say Dec 1st where everyone stays in their home for 3 weeks, hospital, care home and frontline staff during this time work but do not return home during this time. In the lead up to dec 1st, volunteers from army and guards quarantine in the Curragh and army barracks 3 weeks beforehand, and from dec 1st they are the visible presence on the streets. All hospital appointments are cancelled and only emergencies are taken to hospital. Border is shut, most if not all forms of commerce are suspended.

All volunteers would be tested daily during the 3 week period. No voluntary organisations would operate as they are a risk factor

The 3 weeks would allow sufficent time for the virus to work its way out.

The 3 month prep time would allow us to set up comprehensive testing in airports and ports, including hauliers, no exceptions, if you want to enter this country you take a test, fix the track and trace program, book accomadation for the front line staff, fit out the army barracks, stock up on food parcels for the vulnerable and most importantly mentally prepare people for what is to come.

It would have to be longer then that if I remember correctly minuim of 2 full cycles 14 plus 14 but on day 28 you might have a case,have to ask someone I know who worked in sierria leone during ebola, I know... a different disease but good with questions like this and I was told but have forgotten

fritzelly

Goldengirl wrote: »

That whole tweet is not at all about the individuals or the children , but about statistics and the R number , ie . How to get it down!

Statistics are all well and good but not real life
Most (working adults) are having contact with a lot more than 2 people each day - which is what he is basing his numbers on in that tweet

s1ippy

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40017401.html

They must mean day on day, not just the 7 day average. How convenient that there's always a drop off at the weekend, because I have 7DA at around 105.

stephenjmcd

Always_Running wrote: »

The numbers we were getting months ago was uncomfortable not now.

Many including myself excepted a lot more in hospital right now from amount of cases we had the last 3 weeks. So even health care workers can draw some comfort from that.

Of the 1839 in the last 3 weeks, taking the initial hospitalisation rate of 8% we should have seen 147 admissions in the last 3 weeks.

Wolf359f

s1ippy wrote: »

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40017401.html

They must mean day on day, not just the 7 day average. How convenient that there's always a drop off at the weekend, because I have 7DA at around 105.

No offence, but that's over 5 weeks old and from the head of NVRL, not the CMO or a government official.

wakka12

Some massive excess deaths in some parts of the world..Seems quite random really the cities that have been hit so hard. Almost 0.5% of the population of Ecuador's largest city for example, has died during the pandemic. That's almost as bad as the number who died in Bergamo who lost 0.55% of their population during the pandemic. Mexico city has also experienced 24,000 excess deaths since March, representing 0.32% of the city's population.

The worst hit cities in the world appear to be Bergamo, NYC,Madrid, London, Paris, Lima, Guayaquil, Mexico City, Santiago,Moscow, and Stockholm. The pandemic has not really devastated anywhere outside the Western World or Latin America it seems.

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2020/08/20/covi-a20.html

Goldengirl

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Of the 1839 in the last 3 weeks, taking the initial hospitalisation rate of 8% we should have seen 147 admissions in the last 3 weeks.

Do you mean initial as in March ?
Of course we are all hoping it won't go back to that and as if people are saying these are mostly asymptomatic cases , then hospital admissions should not be rising at any pace at all .
Answer is probably that the asymptomatic younger infected are now infecting older age groups , and some of these are now getting sick enough to be admitted.
There has been an increase in the age profile over the last five days of infected cases .

Wolf359f

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Of the 1839 in the last 3 weeks, taking the initial hospitalisation rate of 8% we should have seen 147 admissions in the last 3 weeks.

You need to break it down on ages and the % of age rage hospitalized. It would be less than the 174. The other issue is those percentages are from the start where we weren't testing as much and mainly those presenting in hospital were tested.
To apply a flat rate of 8% is totally wrong.

stephenjmcd

Goldengirl wrote: »

Do you mean initial as in March ?
Of course we are all hoping it won't go back to that and as if people are saying these are mostly asymptomatic cases , then hospital admissions should not be rising at any pace at all .
Answer is probably that the asymptomatic younger infected are now infecting older age groups , and some of these are now getting sick enough to be admitted.
There has been an increase in the age profile over the last five days of infected cases .

I agree of course age profile makes the difference here for sure.

Throughout the outbreak it equals 8% average. Its all we have to go on at the moment.

Up to early August this was down to 2% but again down to age profile we could safely assume.

We will soon see what way hosptial trends go, in theory there should be a large number of admissions but it hasn't been seen yet and hopefully won't be

Goldengirl

omerin wrote: »

Maybe ive watched too many disaster movies, but it really is possible to squash the virus if the goverment had a disaster plan, how about they set in place a date which gives people time to prepare, lets say Dec 1st where everyone stays in their home for 3 weeks, hospital, care home and frontline staff during this time work but do not return home during this time. In the lead up to dec 1st, volunteers from army and guards quarantine in the Curragh and army barracks 3 weeks beforehand, and from dec 1st they are the visible presence on the streets. All hospital appointments are cancelled and only emergencies are taken to hospital. Border is shut, most if not all forms of commerce are suspended.

All volunteers would be tested daily during the 3 week period. No voluntary organisations would operate as they are a risk factor

The 3 weeks would allow sufficent time for the virus to work its way out.

The 3 month prep time would allow us to set up comprehensive testing in airports and ports, including hauliers, no exceptions, if you want to enter this country you take a test, fix the track and trace program, book accomadation for the front line staff, fit out the army barracks, stock up on food parcels for the vulnerable and most importantly mentally prepare people for what is to come.

Any shutdowns like this have been 6 weeks at least as it takes into account those infected incubating and getting better, and others contacts and their contacts coming through it ..at least.
Melbourne for example .
This is what should have been done in the beginning but that is with the benefit of hindsight, and we would have to make a big leap of faith in order to do something like this here any time now .

stephenjmcd

Wolf359f wrote: »

You need to break it down on ages and the % of age rage hospitalized. It would be less than the 174. The other issue is those percentages are from the start where we weren't testing as much and mainly those presenting in hospital were tested.
To apply a flat rate of 8% is totally wrong.

The 8% were all of those admitted to hosptial with a confirmed test regardless of location ( inside hosptial or outside).

I agree as I've said to another poster age profile plays a part here but we aren't seeing hospitalisations to the level that would have been expected versus confirmed cases.

You can see here until early August percentage hospitalised , of course there will be change since then, based on age profile etc but it gives you an idea compared to a few months ago

https://twitter.com/higginsdavidw/status/1293593841631518720?s=19

Goldengirl

fritzelly wrote: »

Statistics are all well and good but not real life
Most (working adults) are having contact with a lot more than 2 people each day - which is what he is basing his numbers on in that tweet

Agree totally.
He is saying that us keeping our contacts down will allow more children to get infected but in keeping the R number down it will prevent us having to shut down again.
I suppose as long as those infected do not become ill.

I see what he is saying now but the amount of very ill people will make the whole R number thing just an exercise.
It really can only work if they keep very tight control, and that will mean policing these new restrictions for quite a time to come ...%(

speckle

Before I go to my leaba, there is regular posts here on postive case numbers and deaths being higher and lower on certain days of the week. I came across a research paper on the oscillatory dynamic of covid which may or may not help. night all
https://msystems.asm.org/content/5/4/e00700-20

also same one posted here

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.19.20107474v2

Atlantic Dawn

In Ireland do we follow the US in saying someone who died from Covid had no previous existing conditions if they were morbidly obese?

stephenjmcd

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

In Ireland do we follow the US in saying someone who died from Covid had no previous existing conditions if they were morbidly obese?

Pretty sure that's counted as an underlying condition here but open to correction.

Only reason I say it is I'm nearly sure it was asked at a press conditions previously regarding underlying conditions.

Fully open to correction on this though

Goldengirl

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Pretty sure that's counted as an underlying condition here but open to correction.

Only reason I say it is I'm nearly sure it was asked at a press conditions previously regarding underlying conditions.

Fully open to correction on this though

I don't think it is classified as an underlying condition , but as a risk factor .
I could be wrong but am so tired now can't see what I am writing .
Night all !

mandrake04

speckle wrote: »

Info on the theory follows... question it.. pull it apart... but at least listen to the discussion

https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-640/

start video at 6.30 to get to testing part its the next 45 mins but listen to the first 10mins at least

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....22.20136309v2

pre print article referred too/above link not working

Edit:https://www.medrxiv.org/search/michael%252Bmina
choose: Test sensitivity is secondary to frequency and turnaround time for COVID-19 surveillance



Hope this posts correctly.

Important possible advantage to these tests is: less exposure for medical staff and they could be done fast in house in nursing homes, or at home or by travel to a testing center/gp/hospital for the rest of us. Even do it at the door of the out patients.


Friend undergoing surgery recently in CUH had outpatients/ prep appointment and then was sent all the way across town via public transport/buses to another place for a covid pcr test and then back to the hospital... crazy

I listened to it, I get what they are saying the rapid test which tests for antigens rather than RNA is crude and cheap but does work if you in an advanced stage of infection and have a high viral load this especially is true around when you are most infectious. But they said it had a narrow window of around 4 days, you could test negative today then test positive tomorrow. In the same case PCR would have tested positive 3-4 days ago because it’s a lot more sensitive maybe too sensitive is also what they touched on but a few of already know that.

They did admit for these Rapid tests to work you probably need the individual to test everyday, im not dismissing them completely as I sort of know how they work but I doubt the HSE will go for them unless the rest of Europe are using them and proven that they are beneficial.

Away With The Fairies

Ventilation is meant to be good and opening windows. But what about a place with no windows that can open. It does have ceiling cassette air conditioning units. But I don't have a clue about engineering and what's best. Does anyone know how safe or not safe these ceiling air conditioning units are? I can't seem to find anything online.

ElTel

Is the cycle threshold number used by Doctors to infer how long into the illness a symptomatic patient is?
Yes, it's dependent on the amount of virus in the sample but as the library of tests and nursing/treatment knowledge grew where the hospitals able to include the ct no. in official protocols?

Do all countries use the same PCR test/look for the same bits of RNA?

s1ippy

s1ippy wrote: »

So you acknowledge that schools are a place where there will likely be higher transmission?

https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1297538480571129857?s=20

Tell Philip Nolan, the "numbers guy" because he said children won't catch or spread it in school.

Why do you believe blatantly misrepresenting what Nolan said makes your argument? Not a major source does not mean won’t catch or spread it.