Covid 19 Part XXII-30,360 in ROI(1,781 deaths) 8,035 in NI (568 deaths)(10/09)Read OP

SortingYouOut

[Deleted User] wrote: »

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0824/1161047-back-to-school-coronavirus/

The entire thing. I'm particularly looking for the first 2 minutes of her speaking. She refers to the way it used to be and a child having the sniffles at night before bed.

I see Usain Bolt was confirmed positive.

https://mobile.twitter.com/usainbolt/status/1297929980874194945

I'm sure he will be fine.

Finest athlete of his generation and really top bloke into the bargain.

Did make a silly mistake celebrating his birthday. From his video before being confirmed he seems to be acting sensibly now. Speedy recovery Usain.

seamus

bb1234567 wrote: »

Anyone know what the story is with Romania? It's the only country in Europe that seems to have completely failed at stopping a major outbreak, now going through a second wave much worse than the first

Haven't been following them specifically, but aside from the general poverty, Romania's healthcare system is an absolute shambles.

It probably collapsed in their first wave and the population is largely fending for themselves. The increased case numbers at the moment are probably down to EU support for testing. The death rates they've been seeing would indicate that they never really left the first wave.

ACitizenErased

Ficheall wrote: »

Do the press releases not go off the initially released figures, i.e. the ones that have "travel/community/cluster/dunno", so after the "dunno" gets divvied up, should the community number not become higher?

The community transmission cases included in the press release are probably the ones that are the most blatantly obvious (ie require zero investigation). The remainder are likely ones in the area of other cases but the person doesn’t recall being in contact with anyone and will likely be linked. Eg a person in Cahir who has had no contact with a factory worker would technically be community transmission initially but after investigation would likely be linked to the APB factory outbreak. Just an example. Community transmission will likely go up yes, but the majority will be linked to clusters.

What can Ireland do to achieve zero Covid-19?
Updated / Tuesday, 25 Aug 2020 09:28
'Clearly, Ireland needs a national strategy to allow us to get ahead of the virus: we need a Zero COVID or virus elimination approach'
'Clearly, Ireland needs a national strategy to allow us to get ahead of the virus: we need a Zero COVID or virus elimination approach'
By Ivan J Perry
UCC

More from UCC
Opinion: we need to be clear about what this virus elimination approach is, how we get there and how we stay there

In response to the Covid-19 pandemic, Ireland has come together in an extraordinary demonstration of collaboration and solidarity across all sectors of society. We have successfully implemented emergency public health measures to control the epidemic and avoid a surge of cases that would have overwhelmed our health services. By June of this year, the number of detected cases nationally had been reduced to less than 10 per day and we embarked on a policy of suppression of the virus to a 'tolerable level', while tentatively reopening our economy and awaiting a vaccine.

The worrying rise in the number of cases over the past few weeks shows the inherent limits of this approach. Clearly, Ireland needs a national strategy to allow us to get ahead of the virus: we need a Zero COVID or virus elimination approach. Internationally, other countries have successfully pursued a Zero COVID policy – New Zealand with a population of 4.8 million has had 1,654 cases and 22 deaths and Taiwan with a population of 23.8 million has had 486 cases and seven deaths to date. There is now growing support, both nationally and internationally, for a Zero COVID approach, but we need to be clear about what it is, how we get there and how we stay there.

The Zero COVID Island movement defines Zero COVID as "‘the absence for a suitable period of time (3 to 4 weeks), of community transmission of SARS-COV-2 (the virus causing Covid-19), within the Republic of Ireland, thereby allowing the safe opening up our economy, including schools, crèches, social gatherings, bars, theaters, sports and other entertainment venues." On achieving Zero COVID, there will still be a risk of imported local outbreaks, as is currently happening in Auckland in New Zealand, but these will be quickly controlled with minimal impact on other regions in the country.



From RTÉ Radio 1's Morning Ireland, Professor Emer Shelley from the Royal College of Physicians of Ireland on why the Government should pursue zero Covid policies

The first step toward Zero COVID is the implementation of a vision and clear plan at the highest level of Government to be supported by skilled leadership and an effective communications strategy that shares this vision with the public. This outlnes in a timely, honest, clear and empathetic way that we can and should protect our vulnerable, and move toward opening up our economy with a return to near normal life within a relatively short time.

Ideally, we also need agreement at political level, with the Northern Ireland administration on an all-island Zero COVID strategy. We have worked effectively with Northern Ireland in the past to control foot-and-mouth epidemics in cattle and the Health Committee of the Northern Ireland Executive has already endorsed the principle of a Zero COVID strategy.

In relation to the operational details, the strategy can be condensed into two core elements:

(i) local area virus transmission zoning

(ii) increased short term physical distancing measures (up to four weeks) with a view to bringing forward the date when we return to a near-normal life.




From RTÉ Radio 1's Today with Sarah McInerney, Dr Gabriel Scally on achieving a Zero Covid Ireland

Local area transmission zoning represents a shift from the current approach of dealing with the outbreak as a single national pandemic. Instead, it views it as a series of localised outbreaks to be tackled area by area until zero community transmission has been achieved for the country as a whole. We suggest the introduction of transmission zoning (green/yellow /red) at individual county level, with green for counties with Zero virus transmission, red with ongoing transmission and yellow for counties without community transmission but bordering red zones

At outset, all counties would be red, with no non-essential travel permitted outside individual counties. For three to four weeks, all non-essential services, including pubs, restaurants, and schools, would be closed, mask-wearing would be mandatory in all public settings (indoors and outdoors) and working from home where possible would continue. Substantial further investment will be necessary to protect jobs, homes and businesses while this happens.

At the end of this the initial period, travel would be permitted between green zones (including through Red zones without contact). A gradual process of relaxation of physical distancing measures and re-opening of all sectors of society and the economy could occur in these green zones, with the opening of schools prioritised. Restrictive measures would remain in the red zones until Zero COVID status was achieved. Thus, we would move from the current strategy of "lockdown" for counties with spikes in viral transmission, to one of opening up counties with Zero transmission and allowing life to return to normal but with the capacity to clamp down quickly on localised within county outbreaks.



From RTÉ Radio 1's Morning Ireland, Prof Anthony Staines discusses a letter from doctors and scientists calling for Ireland to 'crush the curve' by continuing Covid-19 restrictions

In parallel with the transmission zoning approach, we would need to maintain tight control on inward travel at ports and airports with mandatory quarantine and testing, using new, rapid testing technologies. We would also need to intensify our systems for finding, testing, tracing and isolation support for confirmed cases and quarantine for close contacts. There would be a particular focus on high-risk industries and settings including direct provision centres and high-density urban environments. In this context, the need to invest in and support local Public Health Medicine Departments, and to provide adequate places for safe isolation is evident.

Responding to outbreaks of infectious disease is somewhat analogous to firefighting: we maintain a zero-house fire strategy while ensuring that we have the resources and systems in place to respond quickly to fires that arise. Of course, this is not a perfect analogy and we cannot expect to maintain Zero COVID status in every region of the country at all times in reality.

If Ireland chooses to adopt Zero COVID as our national strategy, supported by Government leadership and buy-in from all sectors of society, we are likely in a worst-case scenario to achieve a high level of virus suppression with the best possible opportunity to get our lives back to normal. But if we settle now for suppression of the virus, for "an acceptable level of infection", the first Covid-19 winter in Europe and the Northern hemisphere may well be a winter of severe discontent.

This article draws on discussion and work in the Zero COVID Island Group, convened by Professor Anthony Staines from Dublin City University

The views expressed here are those of the author and do not represent or reflect the views of RTÉ

Ivan J Perry
UCC

Professor Ivan J Perry is Professor Public Health and Head of the Department of Epidemiology & Public Health at UCC. He is a former Irish Research Council awardee

Follow@ivanjperry


Serious lobbying to public atm re: zero covid policy.

If this all goes Pete tong government may need to relook.

Time will tell.

Wanderer78

Deleted User wrote: »

I see Usain Bolt was confirmed positive.

https://mobile.twitter.com/usainbolt/status/1297929980874194945

I'm sure he will be fine.

Finest athlete of his generation and really top bloke into the bargain.

Did make a silly mistake celebrating his birthday. From his video before being confirmed he seems to be acting sensibly now. Speedy recovery Usain.

unfortunately fitness level isnt a guarantee against this thing, wish him well though

Wanderer78

Wanderer78 wrote: »

unfortunately fitness level isnt a guarantee against this thing, wish him well though

His age, fitness levels and the fact he has no symptoms yet confirmed positive are good signs. I'd bet money he will be fine.

Wanderer78

Deleted User wrote: »

His age, fitness levels and the fact he has no symptoms yet confirmed positive are good signs. I'd bet money he will be fine.

oh id say he wont be too bad, he ll have access to the best medical support also, but there have been extremely fit people floored by this thing

What Username Guidelines

Deleted User wrote: »

Hospital numbers is definitely the good news story at the moment. Hard to find positives in the other areas political leadership, community transmission, cases from June levels and anxiety re schools reopening. We will prevail, just hang in there folks.

Even if the Mater get another patient admitted today, having zero patients for a period is very positive milestone. At one point they had 112 patients (25th April)

Gerry Hatrick

Deleted User wrote: »

I see Usain Bolt was confirmed positive.

https://mobile.twitter.com/usainbolt/status/1297929980874194945

I'm sure he will be fine.

Finest athlete of his generation and really top bloke into the bargain.

Did make a silly mistake celebrating his birthday. From his video before being confirmed he seems to be acting sensibly now. Speedy recovery Usain.

Absolute clown. The footballer Raheem Sterling was at the same party.

Wanderer78

Wanderer78 wrote: »

oh id say he wont be too bad, he ll have access to the best medical support also, but there have been extremely fit people floored by this thing

There has also been a huge amount of extremely fit people who have fully recovered and were not sick at all. Don't be so pessimistic. Generally if people are young fit and healthy there is a really good chance it will be mild or simply they won't even know they are sick. We have to be careful cautious but your views seem a little extreme. The man is confirmed positive and has no symptoms. He is also seriously fit and relatively young.

Gerry Hatrick

Gerry Hatrick wrote: »

Absolute clown. The footballer Raheem Sterling was at the same party.

A bit harsh. He's eating humble pie now by the video he posted. This guy single handedly kept world athletics from losing all credibility in the last 15 years. He made a mistake, plenty others have too.

Wanderer78

Deleted User wrote: »

There has also been a huge amount of extremely fit people who have fully recovered and were not sick at all. Don't be so pessimistic. Generally if people are young fit and healthy there is a really good chance it will be mild or simply they won't even know they are sick. We have to be careful cautious but your views seem a little extreme. The man is confirmed positive and has no symptoms. He is also seriously fit and relatively young.

its not pessimism, its realism, my previous statements are actually reality for some extremely fit people

seamus

Deleted User wrote: »

Serious lobbying to public atm re: zero covid policy.

If this all goes Pete tong government may need to relook.

Time will tell.

It's looking less and less like a reasonable policy every day tbh.

New Zealand have apparently got their outbreak under control, but they're still fighting it, two weeks after it was detected.

Combined with the initial data now confirming that developed immunity only lasts a few months, this tells us that ultimately a zero-Covid policy is a suppression policy, not an elimination one.

So we can go for an all-out closed borders approach and keep our cases consistently low, or a more open approach and manage a higher level of cases. Either way, there will be cases, having no cases and eliminating the virus from the island is not a possibility.

So the question ultimately comes to down to what level of cases we are willing to tolerate and manage.

The zero-Covid policy does have plenty of strategies that we should adopt either way in regards to self-sufficiency and hygiene controls (especially at borders), but it now seems clear that aiming for zero covid is like aiming for zero road deaths. An aspirational goal rather than an achievable one.

Wanderer78

Wanderer78 wrote: »

its not pessimism, its realism, my previous statements are actually reality for some extremely fit people

Not for Bolt. He's confirmed positive and has no symptoms. All indicators are he won't even know he had it. Given the information your statement seems overly negative in this example. There is more chance of bolt dying in a car accident than dying of covid and given his driving this is true.

https://youtu.be/2z6WFrm_3Oo

Wanderer78

Deleted User wrote: »

Not for Bolt. He's confirmed positive and has no symptoms. All indicators are he won't even know he had it. Given the information your statement seems overly negative in this example. There is more chance of bolt dying in a car accident than dying of covid and given his driving this is true.

https://youtu.be/2z6WFrm_3Oo

thanks but i couldnt be bothered watching them, im too busy right now

Wanderer78

Wanderer78 wrote: »

thanks but i couldnt be bothered watching them, im too busy right now

You seem busy lol. :pac::pac::pac:

Wanderer78

Deleted User wrote: »

You seem busy lol. :pac::pac::pac:

i am

MOR316

Deleted User wrote: »

Not for Bolt. He's confirmed positive and has no symptoms. All indicators are he won't even know he had it. Given the information your statement seems overly negative in this example. There is more chance of bolt dying in a car accident than dying of covid and given his driving this is true.

https://youtu.be/2z6WFrm_3Oo

Or from a trampoline

normanoffside

Deleted User wrote: »

Speedy recovery Usain.

He says he has no symptoms, what has he got to recover from?

US2

normanoffside wrote: »

He says he has no symptoms, what has he got to recover from?

People with no symptoms can still lose limbs or have permanent brain damage.

normanoffside

Wanderer78 wrote: »

unfortunately fitness level isnt a guarantee against this thing, wish him well though

I think if you are asymptomatic you will be fine.
Djokavic is back playing and winning since he tested positive.

So many other athletes tested positive and are back 100%.
I imagine a higher proportion of Pro Athletes are testing positive simply because they are being tested so much.

seamus

seamus wrote: »

It's looking less and less like a reasonable policy every day tbh.

New Zealand have apparently got their outbreak under control, but they're still fighting it, two weeks after it was detected.

Combined with the initial data now confirming that developed immunity only lasts a few months, this tells us that ultimately a zero-Covid policy is a suppression policy, not an elimination one.

So we can go for an all-out closed borders approach and keep our cases consistently low, or a more open approach and manage a higher level of cases. Either way, there will be cases, having no cases and eliminating the virus from the island is not a possibility.

So the question ultimately comes to down to what level of cases we are willing to tolerate and manage.

The zero-Covid policy does have plenty of strategies that we should adopt either way in regards to self-sufficiency and hygiene controls (especially at borders), but it now seems clear that aiming for zero covid is like aiming for zero road deaths. An aspirational goal rather than an achievable one.

I think people mis understand zero covid policy.

Zero covid policy does not actually mean zero cases and if there are it has failed.

Aim high and we will fail to some extent.

How can a government aim for 10 cases a day. This is acceptable to government. This has proven not to be possible.

We have got to aim higher than our current situation. Zero covid is a buzzword. But it does signal intent that we will not tolerate this blight on our land and we are hunting this down. Would irish people and businesses tolerate New Zealands current failure. Their failure over the last few weeks could be one day here at the moment?

There is degrees of failure.

normanoffside

US2 wrote: »

People with no symptoms can still lose limbs or have permanent brain damage.

:pac:

normanoffside

normanoffside wrote: »

He says he has no symptoms, what has he got to recover from?

People like you :pac::pac:

Kalyke

Where is yourdeadwright?

US2

US2 wrote: »

People with no symptoms can still lose limbs or have permanent brain damage.

I think they may be classed as symptoms

Deeper Blue

US2 wrote: »

People with no symptoms can still lose limbs or have permanent brain damage.

Do you have examples of this? Someone that's completely asymptomatic losing a limb or getting brain damage would surely be international news?

normanoffside

El Sueño wrote: »

Do you have examples of this? Someone that's completely asymptomatic losing a limb or getting brain damage would surely be international news?

I think you have your sarcasm detector switched off.

El Sueño

El Sueño wrote: »

Do you have examples of this? Someone that's completely asymptomatic losing a limb or getting brain damage would surely be international news?

I think he maybe making a joke. :cool: